Newspoll: 57-43

The Australian reports Newspoll has Labor’s lead back up to 57-43 after two fortnights at 55-45. No figures yet provided to back up its headline “Costello wanted as leader”. Hat tip yet again to James J.

UPDATE: Graphic here. It shows Peter Costello’s rating as preferred Liberal leader up to 41 per cent from 23 per cent in April (wrongly labelled in the graphic as April 2007), Brendan Nelson up from 15 per cent to 18 per cent and Malcolm Turnbull down from 25 per cent to 24 per cent – bearing in mind that 19 per cent has been freed up because Julie Bishop and Tony Abbott were not included in the question this time.

UPDATE 2 (31/7/08): Further attitudinal polling, including the finding that the Prime Minister is 3 per cent less experienced than he was six months ago.

UPDATE 3: Suggested Newspoll question format for next time: Is Rudd experienced? Has he ever been experienced?

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,444 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43”

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  1. [was “not a revenge manual”..]

    What could he be implying by that? Has Costello something to get revenge for in Mr Adler’s/Costello’s mind?

    The problem Costello would have in dissing on Howard is ‘why didn’t YOU do something about it’. I cant see how he can go on about Howard’s unsustainable spending when it was he who was Treasurer.

  2. [“Melbourne University Publishing Louise Adler said Mr Costello’s book was “not a revenge manual” but a “wide-ranging and deep analysis of Australia’s political culture”]

    No wonder there’s been this phony stunt to sell his book then… it sounds like it’s going to be as boring as batshit

  3. Will the gonadless former Treasurer also whimp off into retirement never to demonstrate any form of spirit except as QT bully?

  4. [No wonder there’s been this phony stunt to sell his book then… it sounds like it’s going to be as boring as batshit]

    Not wrong, because Costello has never really stood for much. He crapped on about the inter-generational report for a couple of budgets, then didn’t mention it for the last 3 or 4. He made a deal with Labor to tax family trusts as companies, then promptly reneged on it when Howard rolled him in cabinet. What else did he do?

    Christian Kerr skewers Costello:
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24129823-5016936,00.html

  5. Lovers spurned will start to knife Costello for his failure to be their hero.

    But I wouldn’t be knifing him until after his book is out!

  7. #1400
    re Kyoto addition

    For CC denier John of Melbourne who may support all thats USA , to avoid reversing th post back to ‘oz’ its noted: A World ETS without a cap is useles , A World ETS without being within Kyoto is also useless because politcans & individual Countries ar naturally seldfish thats why 182 countires facing ‘face to face’ 400 worldwide Scientists scenarios in there face creates political pressure on them back home , to agree publicly as a world agrreement Rather than a behind closed doors agrement outside of Kyoto ‘negotiated’ by a few big Countrys like th US for there own short term politcs & econamics

    Diference of World CC status to ‘oz’ CC status , is we cann’t necessarily change USA ‘s position & given both candidates efective anti Kyoto stanse , th EU haven’t been able to , therefore our obligation is to ensure ‘oz’ climate is clean for future ‘oz’ peoples as far as our we ar able Europeans EU ar , so is Japan & Candada amongst others right now , which is why Nelsons 2012 CC bit is deplorable

  8. Henderson in today’s SMH:

    Howard firmed up his view in mid-2006 that he should lead the Liberals to the next election and never changed this position. All Costello could have done was to resign as treasurer, go to the backbench and attempt to win the Liberal leadership by destabilising the Coalition government. It was not what he wanted to do and, in any event, there is no guarantee that such a tactic would have worked.

    Ah yes, there it is in a nutshell: no guarantee.

    Henderson also describes Costello’s early days, when he was Deputy Leader:

    He also did not contest the leadership when Howard replaced Downer in January 1995. There was good reason for this… if Costello had become leader, he would have contested the election held in early 1996 at 38 years of age and might have been considered too inexperienced for the job.

    “Might” is too scary a word for someone who needs “guarantees”. Even though Costello was next in line, Deputy Leader to Howard’s nobody, he allowed himself to be spooked by the old campaigner. And again a few years later, again in 2006, again in 2007.

    It might be all well and good for Henderson to lament that Hewson seems to be the one always trotted out for “inside the tent” critical comments on the Liberals, but at least Hewson had a go, and nearly got there. When you don’t have the numbers, you go out and get them. Even Brendan Nelson knows that. As does Turnbull, as did Rudd, Hawke, Keating and the old man himself, Howard. Geez, we could even throw Alex Downer into the pot on that score. But not Peter. He needs “guarantees”.

    What a plum position Costello is in now. He has “anxious” MPs calling him, urging him, begging him to take up the leadership. Nelson has been dumped already in all but formal terms. That is regarded as a given. If he remains leader it will be because the Great Man, Peter Costello has bestowed the gift. In fact, Costello is de facto leader without uttering a single word on the subject since last December.

    In his fantasy mind, Peter can convince himself he is the top man without having to lift a finger, and then he can tell them all to Eff Off and leave by the front door. Classical bully-boy stuff: get a reputation as the best fighter in the school yard without ever having to, you know, have a fight, much less win one.

  9. The conservatives and their media hack buddies are desperately looking for the next messiah to lead them out of the wilderness, but it ain’t one Peter Costello!
    The bloke doesn’t have the balls, simple as that!
    Turnball is perhaps their best option for the leadership, but the right wing of the Liberal Party won’t cop it, they’d rather keep a weakened Nelson in the job IF Smirky doesn’t come to the party(so to speak).
    Bushfire Bill: I love reading your comments, you’re always spot on!
    Good on ya mate!

  10. Reading between the lines of how his father-in-law talks about him, reveals Costello to be a flawed personality unsuited to (successful) leadership.

    Mr Coleman has revealed Mr Costello became undecided – “a Hamlet-like figure” … “I think he is still considering his position; yes, I do,”

    Real leaders make decisions; they do so in a timely fashion. They don’t wander around in undecided aimlessness, and they don’t vacillate like wishy-washy Pete.

    … “(Melbourne University Press publisher) Louise Adler … persuaded him to write the book,” he said.

    He lacks initiative.

    “And that gave him the opportunity to really do more than brood but to actually settle down…”

    Someone who “broods” and needs projects to “settle him down”. Sound like leadership material – or a brat who has difficulty applying himself?

    “At the beginning Peter was providing the autobiographical information and I was doing the writing. But in a very short time Peter got into the stride of things and turned himself into a writer.”

    That’s how a Grade 1 teacher might patronisingly describe a student who she thinks is progressing satisfactorily for his age.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24129887-2702,00.html

    If by some miracle he does take on the “leadership” I predict it will end in tears, for him and party.

  11. Brilliant dissections by Bushfire and Rx.

    Rudd and his mates will never get a better chance to think bigger than now, while the Libs are caught up in pointless diversions.

  13. “Can anyone identify one socially useful thing the Greens actually do? ” ESJ 1289

    I’d have thought Brown and Nettle speaking out about Guantanamo (and Hicks and Habib) at the Bush feting in parliament House was pretty useful.

  14. ESJ

    Nigel Lawson’s book has had excellent reviews. It’s very short and highly politically oriented and very anti-IPCC (who are apparently an unethical pressure group), which will no doubt make it very popular on the conservative side of politics. I think all CC “zealots” should read at least one book which is anti-CC “hysteria”.

  15. 1411
    Don Wigan Says:
    August 5th, 2008 at 8:50 am

    Brilliant dissections by Bushfire and Rx.

    I agree. Some of this stuff deserves to be run in place of the Milne and Shamahan opinion pieces.

  18. Nelson goes overseas, and then he goes a truckin’…

    “We got a great big convoy ain’t she a beautiful sight” sings the Doc as the wheels fall off the rusty old Bedford flat-top that is the Liberal Party-National Party-Liberal National Party Party “coalition”, great plumes of black diesel fumes billowing into the distance as Brendan navigates his way over a cliff á la Wile E. Coyote.

    The silly sausage has left himself open to a right royal satirical bucketing over this at a time he can least afford it.

    I can’t wait for the response from political cartoonists…

  20. Some of the wingnuts at The Blog Of The Nameless One are ripping into Costello now, for letting down the party.

    They really did believe he was going to come back, kick Nelson out, deny Global Warming immediately, smirk a bit in Parliament (thus devastating not only Rudd, Swan, Tanner and Julia, but shocking the Speaker into mute obeisance to his will by sheer force of irresistable logic), give a couple of doorstops where he finger-waggingly lectures the MSM (who are all clearly against him), and then have a quiet word with Rudd about the details of the handover… and the sooner the better for “This Country”, as they like to call it, Pauline-style.

    They don’t realise that the delay, the silence, is because Pete doesn’t have faith in his own judgement, not having had to exercise it in any important matter over the last dozen or so years. When he says to Minchin, “Whadda we do now, Nick?” Nick will reply, “What you mean ‘We’, Paleface?”.

    They’ve likened him to Hamlet, but I prefer Malvolio: all pomp and crossed-garters, believing his own publicity.

  22. [Nelson goes overseas, and then he goes a truckin’…]

    So why isn’t he going to Japan? I thought Japan was the most important country for an Australian political leader to visit FIRST.

  23. ShowsOn… and would you believe Mr Nelson hasn’t even CALLED the Japanese Prime Minister since he became Leader of the Opposition? This is a diplomatic bungle the nation will not forget.

  24. [ShowsOn… and would you believe Mr Nelson hasn’t even CALLED the Japanese Prime Minister since he became Leader of the Opposition? This is a diplomatic bungle the nation will not forget.]

    LOL! But seriously Rudd should put out a press release questioning why the leader of the opposition isn’t going to Japan. At the very least it would make the press gallery laugh.

  28. Malvolio’s wrong, because Malvolio believed his own publicity.

    Costello is pretending to believe his own publicity.

  31. BenC @ 1427,

    “Nationals MAY soon be down to 9 seats in parliament!!”

    May??? More like “definitely” – Oakeshott will walk in regardless of who the Nats or the Libs put up…

  32. #1425 Diog, [The odds of a terrorist attack directly on the Olympics must be very short] – so can i assume you are jumping for joy?

    Afterall, one man’s terrorist is another man’s freedom fighter.

  33. Bushfire Bill

    #1408

    Excellent post I thought you could hav been even less generous to Peter Costello , to accuse only of lacking mereley courage I may be more harsh

    Costello arrived in Canberra after a decade of ‘success’ fighting Unions , with his Uni student friend Kroger’s backing as th annointed one I think Costello always believed this was his right to be ‘Leader’, and his atitude always displayed a born to rule syndrome

    But like many ‘born to rule’ people , Peter Costello had th fatal flaw of not only having ‘no ticker’ , but whatever minisecule ticker he may hav ever had is not given any practice , and dies Costello’s ticker was never previously needed because Costello expect his desires to be met on a silver platter And had been till he entered Parlament , and then on a silver platter he’s Deputy Leader at 38
    38

    In 1995 , think it was not then Costello’s ticker that caused him not to challenge , but his born to rule arogant mentality which wily Howard sucked up to Costello’s ego on and ‘conned’ Costello that he WOULD be th next PM after Johnie Howard even allowed Mclaughlin to act as a witness Gross arrogance in himself Political Gullible would be my charge to this point on Costello , rather than ‘no ticker’

    Howard continued to play on Costello’s arrogant gullibilitey and born to rule mentality for years after th ‘McLaughlin agreement’ actualy expired , even using ‘hints’ of when he ‘might’ retire and bithdates like at 63 , then 64

    About 2003 Costello must hav finally twiged he’d been had , because 1/ ‘backroom leaks’ to oaks , grattan etc said our Peter was unhappy , wanted to be PM and 2/ concurently Peter Costello announsed he would be NOW talking on other than “Treasurer” policys areas , supposedly to broaden his base But reely in Costello’s arrogant born to rule mind , he expected to ‘be drafted’ Another format of his gulibility seeing wily howard probabley even then encouraged him to do so (knowing that was just another Leadership blind alley for Costello as Howard knew he had th numbers

    Believe by about 2005 , when Costello by then twiged he was not even going to get ‘drafted’ , IF he had ‘ticker’ he woud hav challenged , and did not Again in 2006 & 2007 his lack of ticker caused him not to challenge

    But even when th McLaughlin agreement’ became public in 2006 via McLaughlin , with admitted prior Costello’s knowledge , it was almost as if Costello gullibly ‘expected’ th Lib trrops to rally to him against Howard , because th annointed one had McLaughlin’s written note proving his annointment by Howard This gulible born to rule mentality was still present by his actions After 2 days of howard shoring up his suport and nothing happening for Costello , Costello again could still hav challenged using th written agrement , but his ticker was asleep

    No ticker for sure , but think Peter costello was politcaly gullible with howard , and his own arrogant born to rule mentality itself made him so naive For mine bushfire Bill , our Peter was not as clever as pundits make him out to be and more gulible and more arogantin himself than those pundits make him out to be
    (dates quoted ar approx from Peter memories one wishs to forgot)

  34. 1432 Finns

    No, you may not assume I am jumping for joy. I only found out who the Yiurghers were last week. And I’m not a big fan of terrorism.

  35. Ron
    Like you i am a great believer in the future of solar. Wouldn’t it be great if Oz were to take up on this with our vast open areas available for solar farms.

    I have copied this link from another area and i think you will be supercharged after you read it.

    Hopefully big oil will not be able to buy it out and shelve it.

    http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2008/oxygen-0731.html

  36. Well, if they brought this loafer out of the oven, Labor would make a meal of him.

    Savagely, and with pleasurable aplomb, the government would peel the micron-thin skin off this quivering quiche, getting to the soft yellow filling, which they’d chew into pieces and spit derisively into the face of the born-to-rule crackpots.

    Not the most elegant table manners, maybe, but bloody satisfying.

  40. The Nats must be resigned to losing Lyne if the best they can come up with is the man who was the mayor during the Glasshouse debacle resulting in the sacking of the local council.Rob Oakeshott should not have much trouble winning the seat.The question now is will the Libs run?

  42. I hope everyone has finished their lunch. Ramos-Horta might think this is funny but I feel distinctly unwell.

    EAST Timorese President Jose Ramos-Horta says he tried to seduce former federal government frontbencher Amanda Vanstone – and was knocked back.

    “Invite her for dinner, she looks like Nicole Kidman,” he recalled being told.
    “So I wrote to her, a diplomatic letter but with some hints of romance … meaning I was very warm towards her.”

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24130863-5006301,00.html

  43. jayne

    As soon as RO said he was going to run the Nats knew they had lost Lyne. They will never win it back.

    RO will hold the seat for as long as he desires, then it will revert to Libs or Labor.

    I expect a smear campaign against RO will be the Nats only option and it will fail miserably.

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