Newspoll: 57-43

The Australian reports Newspoll has Labor’s lead back up to 57-43 after two fortnights at 55-45. No figures yet provided to back up its headline “Costello wanted as leader”. Hat tip yet again to James J.

UPDATE: Graphic here. It shows Peter Costello’s rating as preferred Liberal leader up to 41 per cent from 23 per cent in April (wrongly labelled in the graphic as April 2007), Brendan Nelson up from 15 per cent to 18 per cent and Malcolm Turnbull down from 25 per cent to 24 per cent – bearing in mind that 19 per cent has been freed up because Julie Bishop and Tony Abbott were not included in the question this time.

UPDATE 2 (31/7/08): Further attitudinal polling, including the finding that the Prime Minister is 3 per cent less experienced than he was six months ago.

UPDATE 3: Suggested Newspoll question format for next time: Is Rudd experienced? Has he ever been experienced?

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,444 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43”

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  2. The headline is a bit misleading as there is no figures on Costello in the report. This could change tomorrow I think.

  3. The punters still support Rudd on CC. Full steam ahead.

    [KEVIN Rudd’s tough stance on an emissions trading scheme for Australia is failing to dent his record popularity with voters.

    The Rudd Government’s two-party preferred figure – based on preference flows at the November election – has increased from 55 per cent to 57 per cent while the Coalition has sunk to 43 per cent.

    Newspoll, published exclusively in The Australian tomorrow, also reveals that Brendan Nelson is flatlining in the polls, with his 14 per cent rating as preferred prime minister unchanged in the past fortnight.

    “He hasn’t landed a glove on Kevin Rudd according to the voters we polled. His number of 14 per cent is not statisically different from where he’s been since May,” Newspoll chief executive Martin O’Shannessy told The Australian Online last night.]

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24093309-601,00.html

  8. Hey, Nelson will prove you all wrong and win government in 2010 on an anti ETS platform, so says Glen Milne, how can we doubt him?
    And pigs might fly also(Progressive sniggers to himself).

    How will News Ltd and Shamaham spin this one tomorrow? This doesn’t follow their script of a government on the nose and a resurgent Liberal Party.

  9. Grog: Hey, at least Nelson is more popular than Gordon Brown, that’s something he can console himself with LOL

  12. Clearly the honeymoon is over and Rudd is a one term government 😉

    The Shanahan didnt come out of his cave last time, these figures must be breaking his heart.

    Can News Ltd be any more blatant in their hard-on for Costello?

  14. 4 JoM
    …which was within the MOE of the week before no doubt…
    and?

    Also
    Are we playing bingo on the first article to mention the honeymoon tonight?
    We’ve got enough medicos in here – what’s the statistical recognition of the placebo effect? Does 14% really actually represent statistical zero?
    Does anyone know if the 14% is an identifiable cohort?
    On the plus side – he’s been there so long that it’d be fair to say that so few people are listening to anything he’s saying that his jelly-snake performance on CC will be rapidly forgotten.

  15. 8: We already know how it’ll be spun. It’ll be about leadership. Nelson flatlining, and Costello favoured to take over.

  17. #12 – [Can News Ltd be any more blatant in their hard-on for Costello?] – so do you feel an erection is coming then? A DD maybe?

  18. Well, the sub-editor’s given the game away. Nelson’s poor advisor is going to up half the night coming up with a game plan for the morning radio.

  20. Red wombat @ 5 you crack me up
    The Doc flatlining ….
    Clear and packer wack, no response we’re losing him, clear and wack , can’t find a pulse, TOD 22.55
    Paging Smirk, paging Smirk

  21. “The oil company BP, known for thorough statistical analysis of energy markets, estimates that countries with subsidies accounted for 96 percent of the world’s increase in oil use last year — growth that has helped drive prices to record levels.

    In most countries that do not subsidize fuel, high prices have caused oil demand to stagnate or fall, as economic theory says they should. But in countries with subsidies, demand is still rising steeply, threatening to outstrip the growth in global supplies.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/28/business/worldbusiness/28subsidy.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&th&emc=th

  22. Horatio’s anti CC stanse is winning him suport in th boardrooms , but not with th punters Th poll will be music to silky toff Turnbull

  23. Good one red wombat 🙂

    Nelson will break through one day.

    I’m so sick of the Costello question. Get over it media!

  24. [Horatio’s anti CC stanse is winning him suport in th boardrooms , but not with th punters Th poll will be music to silky toff Turnbull]

    I don’t think it is winning support in board rooms. If you were on the board of BHP, would you prefer a trading scheme with major party bipartisan support, or a patchwork organised between Labor, the Greens and a couple of independents?

  25. ShowsON
    black humour ShowsOn , Horatio does not seem to win a trick

    JoM
    common John , tell us why Horatio & Turnbull believe in CC and do not agree with the CC denier Bolt ?

  27. [shows on… move operations to india where there is no ets and save]

    So companies are going to mine LNG and coal situated in Australia from India? Whatever.

  28. Brenda and the Fibs are going so bad at the moment, that here is a golden opportunity for the first time for the Greens to show some responsible economic policy and start planning for a shot at opposition.

    These are consistently the worst figures ever by any opposition. They are even going worse than Latham before he got the sack.

  29. Ron, Bolt is not a denier just a realist. Temperatures had been rising that much is true but they have since plateaued and may even be decreasing even though we continue to pump more CO2 into the air. Non of the predictions by alarmists and their computer models has come true to date so we are ebtitled to ask wtf?

    As for Turnbull (I don’t know who Horatio is) I don’t know what his caper is he used to be cool but he has changed too left.

  31. [Ron, Bolt is not a denier just a realist. ]

    Joke of the year.

    [Temperatures had been rising that much is true but they have since plateaued and may even be decreasing even though we continue to pump]

    This is untrue. You are misrepresenting the fact in all probability the warming trend has continued over the last decade.

  33. “Peter Costello has been looking for a job that pays a lot of money. Apparently, Australian businesses are yet to be convinced that the former treasurer can deliver value for big money. However, there is no impediment to Mr Costello going back to the Melbourne bar where he worked before becoming the Liberal member for Higgins”…………..can just see Cossie pulling p#ss at Young & Jacksons.

  34. 4 John – You are correct but the problem is no matter which way the polls go the MSM fail to recognise the MOE. The narrative won’t be positive for Nelson tomorrow.

  37. [Shows On I meant to say they will limit there exposure to Australia as a result of the ETS.]

    Yeah, that’s why Petronas & Santos are investing in a $2.5 billion LNG plant in QLD, Origin is investing in a $2.5 billion coal seam gas plant in QLD, and why Inpex want to invest in a $10 billion LNG plant in the Darwin.

    They’re not worried about an ETS, why are you?

  38. “The Rudd government will reportedly step back from the hardline immigration policy of mandatory detention for asylum seekers.
    The ABC on Monday night reported Immigration Minister Chris Evans is to announce sweeping changes to the policy in a speech in Canberra on Tuesday.

    Senator Evans will announce a shift toward detaining only people who pose a risk to the community, the report said.
    The government will also stop detaining asylum seekers for long periods and will offer legal assistance to those denied a visa.
    Senator Evans will also announce the temporary closure of the $400 million detention centre built by the Howard government on Christmas Island.

    Graham Thom of Amnesty International said the policy shift represented a fundamental change.”
    http://news.smh.com.au/national/govt-to-ease-immigrant-detention-policy-20080728-3mdb.html

  39. Not that I’m a great fan of the Essential Research Poll but they had Labor on 57 to 43 as well tonight on “Agenda”.

  40. ShowsOn please read: http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/column_seven_graphs_to_end_the_warming_hype/

    Oh and by the by (I’ve always wanted to use that in a sentence) I’m worried about the cost of an ETS because it will needlessly increase living costs. It would seem the ALP are similarly concerned since their giving out free credits to industries, even the unions are concerned. Why aren’t you?

  41. John
    Eleven of the last 12 years rank among the 12 hotest years on record (since 1850, when sufficient worldwide temperature measurements began).

    How do you explain that

  43. John of Melbourne

    The IPPCC report of the 3,700 Worlds top scientists concludes quote:

    ” that it is “unequivocal” that Earth’s climate is warming, “as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level.”

    The statement is unconditional

    Whereas you believe Andrew Bolt whose sceientist says the World is not warming Frankly neither you or Andrew Bolt hav any credibility in the light of
    this irrefutable evidence (even Nelson & Turnbull agree with th IPPCC)

  44. Ron #41 Climate is a dynamic system it has changed before and will continue to change.

    ShowsOn #42, lol I do like your analogy. I have one of my own about global warming fanatics who claim the world is going to end, none of their predictions have come true their claims have as much basis behind them as tarrot cards.

  45. I dont understand why some Libs and Nats and other nuts and bolts are allowed to carry on about Australia getting ahead of other countries on emission controls. The EC and plenty of other countries have been moving on it for some time. It shows the dominance of US companies and media that such nonsense gets peddled here without getting laughed at.

  46. [ShowsOn #42, lol I do like your analogy. I have one of my own about global warming fanatics who claim the world is going to end,]

    The world is going to end one day, that is inevitable. Anyone who has a year 8 understanding of physics realises that, but it seems you don’t. The problem of climate change is to ensure that as much of Earth as possible is habitable by humans for as long as possible.

    The fact you don’t even understand what the problem is doesn’t give me confidence in the webpages you give me links to. But I do thank you for the laugh.

  47. ShowsOn yesterday it was global cooling today it is global warming I look forward to debating you and others on William’s Blog about the next scare tomorrow it will be global stagnation. 😉

  48. Will people please stop quoting Andrew Bolt as some kind of reputable source. He has no qulaifications in science whatsoever, and has been soundly discredited on the subject. Lobbing a few graphs together as some kind of proof against global warming is beyond a joke.

  50. [ShowsOn yesterday it was global cooling today it is global warming I look forward to debating you and others on William’s Blog about the next scare tomorrow it will be global stagnation. ;-)]

    I look forward to debating you when you display an understanding of science that is more sophisticated than that of a 5 year old.

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