Newspoll: 57-43

The Australian reports Newspoll has Labor’s lead back up to 57-43 after two fortnights at 55-45. No figures yet provided to back up its headline “Costello wanted as leader”. Hat tip yet again to James J.

UPDATE: Graphic here. It shows Peter Costello’s rating as preferred Liberal leader up to 41 per cent from 23 per cent in April (wrongly labelled in the graphic as April 2007), Brendan Nelson up from 15 per cent to 18 per cent and Malcolm Turnbull down from 25 per cent to 24 per cent – bearing in mind that 19 per cent has been freed up because Julie Bishop and Tony Abbott were not included in the question this time.

UPDATE 2 (31/7/08): Further attitudinal polling, including the finding that the Prime Minister is 3 per cent less experienced than he was six months ago.

UPDATE 3: Suggested Newspoll question format for next time: Is Rudd experienced? Has he ever been experienced?

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,444 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43”

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  1. JoM

    “Ron #41 Climate is a dynamic system it has changed before and will continue to change”

    John i given you a fair go today I’ve QUOTED the IPPCC Report of 3,700 scientists conclusions that

    1/ World temperatures hav been increasing since the mid-20th century
    increase in globally averaged temperatures since -20th century Evidence that human activities are the major cause of recent climate change is even stronger than in prior assessments.[3]

    2/ CO2 from man has caused it
    The report finds that it is “very likely” (90%plus) that emissions of heat-trapping gases from human activities have caused “most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century.

    3/ The report concludes that it is “unequivocal” that Earth’s climate IS presently warming

    4/ the 6 scenarios of the next 90 years temperatures , each showing a rise

    Th fact you ignore this scientific evidence , and believe Andrew Bolt places you in th company of of not just CC denier , but deniers of established science

  2. [I wish the Tianamen square rally back in the day brought down the Communist party of China. ]

    If Tibet ever achieves sovereignty then I hope they achieve a proper Liberal Democracy. The theocratic system they had before Chinese invasion was as bad as Communism.

  3. Dario

    maybe the Insiders could hav the CC denier Bolt on against Nelson , maybe Bolt can get Nelson to deny CC as well , and help Sir Kevin

  4. it’s the climate change questions that are eye opening…

    Libs are in trouble on that one if they take the ol hardline

  5. [it’s the climate change questions that are eye opening…

    Libs are in trouble on that one if they take the ol hardline]

    Not wrong, they are jumping on the wrong ship that is heading in the wrong direction. The hilarious thing is that Costello has endorsed Nelson’s policy! When the Turnbull / Hunt position is the more sensible option.

  6. 64
    Zombie Mao Says:
    July 29th, 2008 at 1:15 am
    it’s the climate change questions that are eye opening…

    They are great on CC occuring , humans caused it and ETS Th MSN negative campaign has not any inpact at all

  7. Shorter Shanahan:

    Costello, Costello, Costello, Costello, Nelson, Nelson, Costello, Turnbull, Costello, Costello, Costello, Costello, Costello, Costello, Costello, Costello, Costello, Costello, Costello, Costello, Costello, Costello, Costello, Costello, Costello, Costello, Costello… oh… and Labor has a crushing lead and total dominance.

    Why they waste so much time on Costello, the Liberal Party’s perennial leadership prick-teaser, I don’t know.

    He’s off playing the coquette again, back in the islands being “mysterious”, yet again teasing us all (in his and his urgers’ minds) with the thrilling possibility that he might deign to accept the leadership.

    Same old, same old. How many times have we seen this out of Costello? There he is, incognito again, in the Pacific islands – again – too gutless to have a go off his own bat, so he makes quaking terror out to be “enigmatic” behavior.

    The shivering bully. It gives him Dutch courage to hear the “reverence” for his elder statesmanship in the leader’s voice voice when Nelson says, “Peter can do whatever he wants, and I’ll back him.”

    Total. Tosser.

  8. Shows how lazy Costello is, he is on holidays while his father-in-law does the finishing touches on Costello’s book. LOL

  9. It does make drilling for oil on the Grat Barrier Reef easier to cash in on if Nelson and the LNP kills it off first. Never forget the National Party policy in the Joh era.

  10. It is no wonder that Newspoll is being to show the decision to put the ETS on the never never and consider national adoption of the Pineapple Party today in Shadow Cabinet would concern voters.

    “It was eventually revealed that several Queensland Cabinet Ministers owned shares in companies that had successfully applied for sand-mining leases at Cooloola. In 1969 fellow Parliamentarians asked the member for Barambah (Joh Bjelke-Petersen) to sell his shares in oil and mining companies, including a number that were involved in drilling on the Great Barrier Reef, and he refused 4. Oil drilling on the Great Barrier Reef, which had begun in 1967, was a contentious issue for many years.”

  11. Beware. QANTAS is flying on pure luck at the moment. It’s not if but when a major accident will happen to QANTAS flight. There have been too many “technical problems but the safety of the passengers was never at risk”, rubbish. It’s bit like the CC deniers actually.

    [‘Chaos’ on Qantas plane as jet forced to make emergency landing after door opens mid-flight.]

  12. The media’s continual fascination with Captain Smirky is mystifying!
    Costello is all wind and piss, the guy doesn’t have a backbone in his body!

  13. I don’t know what [Turnbull’s] caper is he used to be cool but he has changed too left.

    Uh, Left is cool. That’s why the increasingly rightward Liberals can’t win a trick!

  14. 62 from Sham-I-am’s scribblings. Says it all really.

    “In the Newspoll, Mr Costello’s strengths were among Coalition voters – with 53 per cent preferring the former treasurer – men and those over 50 while Dr Nelson’s were among women and those over 50. Mr Turnbull’s highest support was among ALP voters.

    But when asked if Mr Costello’s leadership would make a difference in the way they voted, 57 per cent said it would make no difference…”

  15. Finns- trying not to think that as hopping on board Qantas in 2 weeks. I’m running with the “they’d be really really careful now” reasoning.

  16. 44%! After more than a decade of displaying his wares, less than half of those polled prefer Williwillinot to others in his own party. After more than a decade of exposure, why isn’t it, say, 57%?

    I wonder how Williwillinot’s book will address his courage? How will it address the fact that the majority of Australians simply don’t like him very much? How will it differentiate his contribution from outcomes that global processes were generating anyway? How will it sort out what was Howard and what Costello? How will it address his lack of the numbers? Will it address perceptions of his laziness and his abrasiveness? Will it address the reasons for the lack of corporate offers of sufficient substance? Will it address his enjoyment of his current spoiling role and the damage it is doing? Will it explain how his delay in making his decision now is helping liberal party supporters? Will it dig a bit deeper and address the conflict between self-belief and self-doubt that seems to continue to paralyze him? With a bit of flair it could be a bloody good read.

  17. Mr Turnbull’s highest support was among ALP voters.

    Um…aren’t the ALP supporters the ones the LNP need to attract to get back into government?

    Tells you a lot about the Libs, ATM. And Shanahan. None have no clue about politics.

  18. Correction:

    Tells you a lot about the Libs, ATM. And Shanahan. None have no clue about politics.

    Should read:

    Tells you a lot about the Libs, ATM, And Shanahan. Neither have a clue about politics.

  19. I’m just getting sick of Costello’s “winning” strategy: sit back, disappear if possible, and let everyone speculate, culminating in a draft (he wishes). Add “knowing” smirks and enigmatic utterances, signifying… nothing (at least no so far).

    He’s been doing this since time-was. “My father told me to never tell a lie”… leaving rabid commentators to join the dots.

    This man seems to be congenitally incapable of standing up for himself or what he believes in. How in the hell he could ever stand up to a real crisis, one that required true courage to confront, escapes me.

    Even when he had the numbers, and when his party needed him after the election, he squibbed it… possibly for a dumb a reason as Howard had “anointed” him and he didn’t like Howard that night. He squibbed a front bench position. His whole life in politics has been taking no chances. even in 1995, when he gave in to Howard’s sweet little lies about a handover, he did it because he wouldn’t have to work at the leadership: it would have been handed to him.

    What’s he waiting for? For the Libs to be so cowed and beaten that he can reassert his bully-boy tactics… on his own party?

    Geez, this man, coquetting around, playing hard to get with the comely smile and the sexy ball gown, is the absolute last person the Libs or the country need to be Prime Minister. Trite, but true, it’s a sign of how desperate the Libs and their supporters must be that they even contemplate a loser such as this to be Leader.

    He can’t stay in Parliament because he hasn’t got the numbers or the moxy. He can’t leave Parliament because he cannot get a job befitting his status. And he can’t bring himself to admit any of it. What a sorry excuse for a man, much less a politician.

    If it’s not handed to him on a platter – whether that be the Leadership, a job, a gun economy, or an uninterrupted Question Time license to smirk – he doesn’t want it.

  20. Re this BOLT phenomena,

    It is rare that in a short period of time we see the complete collapse of someones credibility. Taking with it a whole raft of ‘thinkers’.
    The reason that Bolt simply can’t change his stance is that his whole ‘career’ is based on this right-wing dogma around an anti-environmental, pro-market, pro-American, anti-intellectual loudmouthed bullying pro-vested interests ranting.
    How would any of us feel if we were completely discredited by our chosen opponents. Bolt must lie awake at night in a cold sweat. “How could the Greens have been right all along”. “How could it possibly be that Bob Brown has been Totally right for the last 20 years.” “How could I have been totally Wrong all along, people must be laughing at me”.

    The extension of this complete collapse in credibility then moves to ALL his other rather bizarre stances. There is of course a common thread that his rantings have. They support the powerful and rich. He is a crawler, a supporter of the rich, an attacker of the weak, a supressor of the underprivileged.

    I keep seeing the meeting where all the Indigenous delegates stood and turned their backs to Howard. (Lets remember for a moment the Shame of his Stances around Sorry). There has been a move around Bolt similar to this, he had some credibility once?, now his CC stance has distroyed this, his attempts to continue the argument now becomes almost pathetic. But I say again it needs to be seen in this context. He can’t admit that he has been totally and catastrophically wrong as it would lead to a complete collapse in his ‘sense of his personal credibility’. Really the only way out for people like Andrew is to stop talking about it. Just stop and start trying to focus on other more interesting debates.

  21. With a TPP at 57-43 the most interesting question is this:

    Would Costello as leader affect your vote?

    Its ALP voters that the Coalition need … and guess what?

    ALP voters more likely = 15

    Alp voters less likely = 20

    Woops Peter that’s a net position of negative 5 for you.

    Better get another job

  22. Excuse if I am dumb, but is Costello really on holiday – again? I thought they were having a BIG meeting where all would be resolved. If he is the answer, wouldn’t he be there?

  23. Absolutely correct BB. I’d love Costello to take on the leadsership. He would be absolutely slaughtered. Go Cossie, go for it. I dare you.

  24. I love it, Nelson’s having his big Liberal Party meeting today, and Costello is out of the country: that says it all!

  25. Question – how did Costello garner all this support from the press?
    Lots of lunches, leaks or is he really that charismatic amongst a certain personality type?

  26. Back in 1994, Costello could see that Hewson couldn’t last as leader. But instead of challenging Hewson himself, he thought it would be a better idea to put Downer into the leadership. That tells you all you need to know about Costello. He thought it would be a good idea to make Downer leader.

  27. The Australian today puts Pravda to shame. You have to read that Costello poll carefully and when you do you note there was no preferred Pm number for backbench Pete. And when you see the numbers of voters who think he should be oppo leader, the figures also show that he is not a vote changer for the non coalition voters so the reshuffling of numbers would not appear to be an influence on the primary votes of the parties. Try and find that in the Australian’s coverage
    But the Government Gazette seems obsessed with putting Pete into the Opposition leader’s office. They should be careful what they wish for.
    As Barrie Cassidy pointed out on Insiders a few weeks ago the figure from Jackman’s book on the KevinO7 campaign was dodgy and a deeper anaysis of the figures showed Pete is on the nose with the voters. So what is the Oz up to?
    And spare a thought for poor old climate change data manipulator Andrew Bolt (see Larvatus Prodeo) The punters just aren’t buying his shit. And yet the mainstream media continues to give the likes of Devine, Duffy Bolt Akerman the running on this issue without demanding anything like some scientific rigour in their claims. They continue with the line that there is doubt about the issue. Read the GGs poll today they numbers are extraordinary. The Libs still don’t realise what a vote changer climate change was at the last election. If they continue to use it as a political football they can kiss ideas of One Term Kev goodbye. They will be doomed for a generation.

  28. The shadow cabinet may as well all be in a hammock in the South Pacific seeing their main work today will be to not make a decision until the rest of the world pass us by.

  29. The hide of these people getting a plane ride, dress up in a suit, scoff scones and jam, decide to do nothing and get a flight and cab fare back home.

  30. 95 steve
    Nah – now it’s their role to snip from the wings – any wing mind you left, right, arse or front, and slow things down.
    It suggests they know what’s coming.
    Has anyone plotted Vaile and Costello’s departure times against their parliamentary entitlements and superannuation package?
    I reckon it’s getting that cynical in there.

  31. If that’s the case, onimod then they can do that from home on an honary basis. If they are going to meet as a Shadow Cabnet they should be producing policy on behalf of the people who voted for them. They are paid to make decisions not put them off indefinitely.

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