The Australian reports Newspoll has Labor’s lead back up to 57-43 after two fortnights at 55-45. No figures yet provided to back up its headline “Costello wanted as leader”. Hat tip yet again to James J.
UPDATE: Graphic here. It shows Peter Costello’s rating as preferred Liberal leader up to 41 per cent from 23 per cent in April (wrongly labelled in the graphic as April 2007), Brendan Nelson up from 15 per cent to 18 per cent and Malcolm Turnbull down from 25 per cent to 24 per cent – bearing in mind that 19 per cent has been freed up because Julie Bishop and Tony Abbott were not included in the question this time.
UPDATE 2 (31/7/08): Further attitudinal polling, including the finding that the Prime Minister is 3 per cent less experienced than he was six months ago.
UPDATE 3: Suggested Newspoll question format for next time: Is Rudd experienced? Has he ever been experienced?
So that explains the unnatural glow in Julie Bishop’s eyes -they’re full of fission products. No doubt she’s got mates in WA sitting on huge uranium resources; of course she’s going to spruik that particular GW/CC “solution”. But reactors take 10 to 15 years of generating “clean” power to pay off the carbon debt accrued during their construction, then they’re due for overhaul or decommissioning after 25 to 30. As others have pointed out, nuclear power is the choice for countries with limited energy alternatives -or with other agendas, such as the development of nuclear weapons. For Australia, with the full gamut of renewables and LNG to boot, the nuclear option is way down the list.
Custard Costello will never lead anything. How much are we still paying him, while he spends his time scratching his arse and writing his memoirs? (Aren’t such books outlawed under proceeds of crime legislation?) The electorate of Higgins deserves better.
Looks like there is no change to Nelson’s latest ETS position. At least until after tomorrow’s Joint Party room meeting when it could all change once again.
{BRENDAN Nelson has secured the support of shadow cabinet for a tougher line on emissions trading that makes support for a scheme conditional on action by big polluters including China and India.
Coalition sources told The Australian Online that hardliners are claiming a victory after today’s meeting and claim the “big shift” was from frontbenchers Malcolm Turnbull and Greg Hunt.
“Brendan Nelson has carried the day,” a Liberal frontbencher said.
Dr Nelson will hold a press conference shortly. It is understood the shadow cabinet has agreed to a series of principles around the issue of climate change. His new policy position still requires the support of the Coalition partyroom tomorrow.}
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24096064-601,00.html
Samantha Maiden as usual gets it wrong – I watched Brenda’s press conference and he could not explain how the policy had changed, because it has not.
So where is the “big shift”. In the minds of Coalition sources? 🙂
Oh dear, what a mess:
From Skynews’ Agenda:
“Brendan Nelson managed not only to shoot himself on the foot but also stabbed himself on the arm”
“He cannot mess up more this CC thing over the last two weeks than what he has done”.
“Nelson is now of the view that Australia must act and implement ETS”
“Nelson has managed to turn the Coalition’s CC policy into an issue, rather than the Government’s”
“About 30% of the Coalition MPs are CC skeptic or denier and questioned the science”
“Nelson has come out of the last two weeks so much weaker and hard to imagine him holding on to the leadership”
“Peter Costello is indulgent in taking a holiday as the Liberal is crumbling and the punters will not put up with this kind of indulgent”.
154 The Finnigans – I watched that too. As far as Jennifer Hewett and the journalist from The Advertiser (Mark ?) Nelson has had a very bad couple of weeks. Bolt will be spewing.
Let me fix that sentence – “As far as Jennifer Hewett and the journalist from The Advertiser (Mark ?) were concerned Nelson has had a very bad couple of weeks.”
On 7’s 4.30pm news, their political reporter (not the dickhead one) said Brenda was very uncomfortable at the press conference and if you had trouble understanding the Libs position on CC you weren’t alone as he was having trouble understanding it himself!
Dennis Shanahan’s piece is not just about promoting Costello; it’s a not-too-subtle ploy to obscure the fact that in the last two weeks the gap in the Labor/LNP primary vote has widened from 5 to 10 percentage points, the TPP gap has widened from 10 to 14 points, and the PPM gap remained unchanged at over 50. All are mentioned if one looks carefully, but they scarcely jump out of the page.
The radio broadcasts have followed suit with scarcely a mention of the key poll figures. While the Costello angle is newsworthy, so are the other poll data. It’s another example of how the media in this country is susceptible to groupthink, or more plausibly in this instance, ‘non-think’.
Even the Costello story was bungled with mislabelling of the table, which did not match the text. With Nelson’s and Turnbull’s support virtually at a standstill, Dennis was able to say: “With Ms Bishop and Mr Abbott removed from the latest poll, all of the public support appears to have shifted to Mr Costello as speculation has swirled about his future.” Another take on the figures could be that when Bishop and Abbott were included they took 19 votes away from Costello, leaving him on a par with Turnbull. Dennis, the master of implausible spin, has done it again. He should know that using data in this way is fallacious, but why should he worry about statistical precision? The only credible motivation seems to be a determined push from several Oz journalists to reinstate Costello in the belief he might be better place to wrest Government from Labor at the next election. I guess he looked, but couldn’t find a more promising candidate.
“Nelson has had a very bad couple of weeks”.
And its only going to get worse, he may be able to keep the lid on the party room tomorrow but for how long?
They really need a good all in brawl – no holds barred cage match – clear the policy vacuum and get back in the game.
Brenda, the great appeaser, is doing his party no good at all.
Gary Bruce 155 Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 4:49 pm
“154 The Finnigans – I watched that too. As far as Jennifer Hewett and the journalist from The Advertiser (Mark ?) Nelson has had a very bad couple of weeks. Bolt will be spewing”
How did Bolt get into it Brenda has announced 3 CC policys today , all in th one news conference , whereas Bolt believes in no CC policys at all since th world is not warming
Gary
I presume you mean Mark Kenny.
Diogenes
I don’t really have a very high regard for the quality of the ‘nuclear debate’ in Australia.
I suspect that the pro-nuclear lobby in Australia knows pretty well that whole-of-life nuclear power plants are commercially uncompetitive here and can usually only work ‘commercially’ overseas if (a) they are subsidised, and (b) people don’t think in terms of ‘whole-of-life’ when they use the term ‘commercial’. The exception might be in countries that don’t have alternatives and that might be held to ransom by oil/coal/gas cartels, but that has not been demonstrated. The current oil price, and Putin’s activities in relation to with holding fuel supply to the Ukraine, may make a liar out of me on this one.
Given the commercial realities in Australia, the real agendas of the very-active pro-nuclear lobby, who are given lots of space in the anti-gg, must be elsewhere. I suggest the following three:
(a) to act a spoiler as in: ‘Climate ecohysterics* can’t be regarded as having any credibility on CO2 if they refuse to consider nukes.’
(b) to act as cover for the real agenda as in: ‘Climate ecohysterics can’t be regarded as supporting other countries to reduce their emissions if they try to limit the export of uranium.’ The real agenda would be to increase the number of uranium mines, the amount of uranium exports, and to get to the Indian market in particular. This agenda is profit. (I am not against profit and enjoy it myself, if I can get it with the way the stockmarket is going, but I prefer the nuclear lobby to be honest about it.)
(c) to give careerist do-nothings something to talk about when they intend to do nothing but want to look like they seriously want to do something if only the ecohysterics would let them.
I am not against nuclear power generation per se and believe that the radioactive material can be stored safely. ‘Safely’ means at very great cost and over a very great time frame. However, I do believe that one day we will probably all be fairly sorry about nuclear weapons proliferation. There are some pretty hairy situations out there at the moment and they seem to be increasing. In relation to, I think, the Gaza strip, a senior Israeli has spoken about a ‘final solution’ and they have the nukes to deliver it. I think it was a frustrated slip of the tongue and does not represent mainstream Israeli opinion but, as with Goldwater, using nukes gets to be seriously on the agenda when things get very frustrating. Living next to the Gaza Strip must occasionally be deadly and mostly very frustrating. Living in it must be hell.
The Iranian Ahmadinadjad would be a very, very scary nuke holder. It is hard to see the Israelis letting that come about and it is also fairly logical that if they can’t do it conventionally, they will go nuclear. Let’s all hope the diplomacy works.
Pakistani governance is rocky and no-one can sure who would end up with the nukes if things continue to deteriorate. Probably a greater practical concern is the rapidly increasing amount of material out there which is suitable for a dirty bomb (ie conventional explosive core + nuclear leftovers instead of nails and bolts. These are dead easy to make if you have the stuff). One such bomb detonated in, say, Pitt Street, would make the whole of the Iraq insurgent bombing campaign look like kiddy kindergarten stuff – not because of the comparative numbers killed or injured or the comparative damage done to buildings and infrastructure, but because of the amount of time that would need to pass` before anybody could go back to Pitt Street to work. Weeks certainly, months probably. OH&S legislation would make it a crime for bosses to expect their workers to go there.
I have read somewhere or other that if the world’s entire current coal/oil/gas power generation was generated by nukes instead, we would only have about a generation’s worth of known uranium reserves. If true, and even if the capital were available, and even if the reserves were to be doubled and even if the efficiency of generation per kilogram of uranium were increased significantly, nuclear fission is therefore probably not a long-term solution for anything at all. If so, nuclear must be more about careerists thinking about jobs, pollies thinking about national sovereignty, and cappos making a short-term quid. But I must confess I don’t know too much about whether there are nuclear fission alternatives to uranium that are practicable.
* not sure where ‘ecohysteric’ originated but I first saw the term in the anti-gg. A subby must have had a bad night on the grog. Sort of clever, but a bit over the top if the anti-gg wants to persuade the other 84% of Australians that they are incorrect on CC and begins by implying that most of them are ecohysterics.
Amigo Ronnie, [Brenda has announced 3 CC policys today] – i am struggling myself. Over how to fit the Liberal’s top 5 into the top five classic positions of the Kama Sutra on CC. One each for Nelson, Bishop, Turnbull, Cossie and Hunt. There is a fit somewhere.
163
The Finnigans Says:
July 29th, 2008 at 5:22 pm
“Amigo Ronnie, [Brenda has announced 3 CC policys today] – i am struggling myself. Over how to fit the Liberal’s top 5 into the top five classic positions of the Kama Sutra on CC. One each for Nelson, Bishop, Turnbull, Cossie and Hunt. There is a fit somewhere.”
5 normaly does not go into 3 but Brenda found the code Cossie was zero he was gunna put up a CC policy but wasn’t drafted , Hunts a fairyfloss so got 0.5% , gave 1% to Juile a good look lady , and rounded after that
161 onimod – That’s the one, thanks.
“How did Bolt get into it Brenda has announced 3 CC policys today , all in th one news conference , whereas Bolt believes in no CC policys at all since th world is not warming”
That last bit about Bolt wasn’t on “Agenda” Ron, that was me. Bolt was wanting and hoping Nelson would take a hard line on CC and the ETS. Obviously Nelson was rolled and he hasn’t, hence my comment. Bolt will not be impressed with Nelson now.
162 Boerwar
I read a book that agreed with you about. It named the three countries most likely to be responsible for a global collapse. They were:
1. Saudi Arabia- If the fundies take over and limit oil supply to the US
2. Pakistan- Risk of nuclear waste ending up with extremists, esp if Musharref is assassinated
3. China- If its economy collapses on the back of US dollar devaluation and getting left holding the bag, combined with the possibility that they can’t continue to manage their economy so expertly for ever and will start making mistakes
#162 Boerwar – [Pakistani governance is rocky and no-one can sure who would end up with the nukes if things continue to deteriorate.] – How Pakistan was ever allowed to have and continue to have the Nukes? The answer must be that Pakistan plays cricket. That’s alright then. So if I were the Iranians, I would start playing cricket.
” Bolt was wanting and hoping Nelson would take a hard line on CC and the ETS. Obviously Nelson was rolled and he hasn’t”
Gary , Brenda is such a flip flopper to hold his job , there is always th chance of a future CC policy mark iv to save his skin
Nelson got rolled: LMFAO!
That has made my day!
Thank goodness there are still a few intelligent people in the Liberal Party, especially Mal Washer.
Rudd could really make Nelson’s day even worse by getting on the box and thanking him for endorsing the government’s policy of going slowly on the ETS initially and lowering the cap and ramping up the carbon price as major emitters come on board, which is the opposite of what Nelson is implying the policy is!
Diogenes @ 132 –
Nuclear may well be more cost-effective in countries which do not have the natural resources for solar, hydro, geothermal, wind or, dare I say it, clean coal.
It seems to me there are two problems with this. 1) Economic uranium reserves, including secondary reserves such as nuclear weapons reprocessing are even more limited than oil and are expected to be exhausted within 40 years* at current demand (or 2 years if everyone started using it [Zittel W, et al, (2006)]), and 2) what limitations will the US insist on to allow countries to build nuke plants?
Okay, breeder reactors could solve the first, but if the US has apoplexy about Iran enriching uranium to fuel grade (<=5% U-235 -v- 90% for bombs) what will they think about vast quantities of plutonium entering the global fuel cycle?
* see also: Lack of fuel may limit U.S. nuclear power expansion
According to Paul Bongiorno on TEN NEWS, Nelson was rolled by shadow cabinet.
I’d trust him over the News Ltd/Pro Liberal Party hacks!
Shamaham’s piece this morning was more of the same drivel we expect from him and that toad Milne.
So did Nelson get rolled or is “Brendan Nelson has carried the day” correct or maybe an “elegant compromise” had been found.
Talk about spin – how about, as usual Brenda decided he would do nothing. Or Brenda tells people what they want to hear.
The funny thing is that he really did not need to say anything – the Govt is going through the discussion phase of framing an ETS and we will comment when all the details are on the table.
But oh no – being a political opportunist, or desperation to hang on as leader, he makes the Fibs policy the issue. Dumb, dumb, dumb. 😛
Progressive, 170 and 172,
Once again your insight and profound wisdom excludes the possibility of any rational alternative point of view!
152 Scorpio – WOW did Samantha Maiden get the wrong info on that one!
I had read that before leaving work, and when I got home and saw the story on Channel 10 news I couldn’t believe it.
And get this dopey line:
“Dr Nelson’s new policy position increases the likelihood the Rudd Government will be forced to delay the introduction of the scheme if it wants to secure Senate support. ”
Why? The Greens will come on board; so will X and Fielding will do a bit of trading and bingo Libs irrelevant.
One of the reasons I support Labor and not the Liberals is because it is Labor who are the true capitalists and not the conservatives.
The conservatives support a regressive tax when it suits them (such as the GST), and a progressive tax when it suits them (such as coy tax).
The conservatives support free competition ONLY when it suits them, and a monopoly when it suits them (such as superleague).
Onya Sonny Bill and Mundine. NRL = pot-kettle-black!
Grog, it’s like watching an episode of “Monty Python” unfolding in real time with a cast of characters that the original creators of that program would have loved to have signed up.
They don’t even need to have rehearsals to provide the most entertaining comedy in ages.
Looks like the “Chaser” guys are out of a job now too.
Ch7 News Brisbane says Brenda’s leadership is terminal. 🙂
You have to wonder if this morning’s newspoll was the first for ages to actually have a real impact (rather than merely altering perceptions)
ruawake if you want to ever check out the head of a beaten favourite, look no further than Brenda after that party meeting LOL.
why don’t they advertise?
With a caveat that “no previous applicants need apply”:mrgreen:
bugger- maybe he’s writing an application.
If Nelson was rolled, then so, by proxy, was Costello, who had the same position on ETS as Nelson.
Another indication – if more are needed – that Costello has run his race and will soon be out of there. Well – just as soon as he musters up the courage to make the exit, that is.
So they didn’t commit hari kari for a caretaker leader? I am shocked; Perhaps they’re not all crazy.
I reckon there is a fair chance that Costello’s book is so full of ambiguity that nobody can get a clue about what he is going to do. And the saga will go on…
“Even when Nelson does extremely provocative things, such as proposing to take the party backwards on emissions trading, he doesn’t seem (so far) to blow himself up.”
Ka BOOM. 😛
Jack the Insider’s blog is on Nelson http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/nelson_puts_the_house_on_climate_change/
apparently he had to re-write it due to Nelson changing position again!
“apparently he had to re-write it due to Nelson changing position again!”
No wonder he’s been so grumpy lately. By the time Nelson goes he’ll be glad to see it happen.
If posters would just listen to what Brenda actualy said after th meeting about ETS , it all becomes clear
Asked if the latest policy was any different to the coalition’s existing stance, he said: “Well, there are some particular…. look, there are a couple of changes in it.”
OR this quote
” Dr Nelson said Australia must move ahead with an emissions trading scheme, but insisted that it “must be informed by what the major emitters throughout the world choose to do”.
Well, now, fellow bludgers. Does anyone else find it interesting that voting intentions on primary and TPP, stubbornly refuse to move in the Coalition’s direction, despite the unrelenting negativity emanating from the O.O. and other well known cheerleaders for said coalition? It reminds me of an oft observed human phenomenon that when what you are doing doesn’t work, you re-double your efforts and do more of the same, thereby digging yourself an even deeper hole.
What an eedjut Horatio is, making himself and the endless position changes the story.
Steve 187 –
Top shot!
188 Ron, if he’d put it on his website or the Liberal Party’s where they usually put them we might have some idea of what he did say.
Read it religiously, ESJ.
188 ron, Thanks for bringing some much needed clarity to the matter!
Steve 192, your comments deserve careful analysis, study and reflection to be fully appreciated for their wisdom and insight.
scorpio
maybe a “slighty silly party” might work for the fibs 🙂
and brenda would be a lay down misere for minister for silly walks (and policy)
scorpio
maybe a “slighty silly party” might work for the fibs
and brenda would be a lay down misere for minister for silly walks (and policy)
It appears that the Australian does not know if its Arthur or Martha. Now we get: “Nelson rebuffed by own party”.
“FEDERAL Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson has failed in his bid to alter the coalition’s climate change policy.”
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24097697-12377,00.html
They have just as many karma sutra positions as Brenda. 🙂
Well ruawake, in their defense, Nelson is making it hard for them. It’s not easy proping up a dead duck.
excuse the American spelling – that’s defenCe.
ruawake , the same story is on News Ltd web site and a similar one on the ABC site.
When looking at your link I came across this!
{A WRIT is expected to be filed in the High Court tomorrow alleging the involvement of the secretive Exclusive Brethren in a variety of crimes, including fraud and kidnapping.
Three sisters, from India, who say they are on the run from the religious sect, allege they can link it to numerous crimes.
The women also allege the Exclusive Brethren is involved in money laundering, immigration fraud in New Zealand and bribery of police and members of the judiciary in India.
“We’ve got 3,000 pages of evidence … and now we’re going to expose this whole thing,” one of the sisters said in Canberra today.}
Pity they don’t have some info on the mob here in Australia. Howard & Costello’s good friends in prayer.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24097703-12377,00.html