1,359 comments on “North Carolina and Indiana minus four days”

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  1. Reading Pancho’s American Conservative link – what is it about near retirement upper-middle class white American conservatives and their seeming addiction to some nebulous Cultural Crisis, a crisis of such permanence that its beginnings are lost in the mists of time and whose end is always just one more conservative revolution into the future?

    Have any of these blokes, and it’s always invariably the blokes, ever asked themselves “maybe that’s just the world in action and I’m talking shit?”


    Just like a scene from “The Cook, The Thïef, His Wife and Her Lover”

    Generally though, I can’t get over the fantastic vote for Obama despite all the best shots over weeks that have been fired at him. He’ll just blitz McCain after this. This has been the real test. Americans want change and will not be distracted by hyped garbage.

  3. 1232

    Thanks Pancho, just got to watch the whole speech.


    There has not been an American politician, not since Kennedy, who could rouse those sentiments and be even half believable.

    Not only is the man’s rhetoric powerful, but he charges his audience with hope that’s deep and transcending at a time when the US is clearly crumpling and staggering.

    He is a man in his time.

  4. Pancho, if we awake to 5-10 SDs jumping on the Obamawagon, that’ll be the beginning of the dam bursting. I tend to think they’ll just continue to dribble in the way they have been. Having said that, Hillary has cancelled all morning media appointments (I’ll bet Obama hasn’t!) and is meeting with a group of SD’s to ask for their support. If they refuse it, then we may have an announcement soon. If they grant it, we may have a group of SD’s coming out for Clinton to jump-start her broken down campaign.

    Can’t see it though, can you?

    Tomorrow’s headlines will read like headstones.

  5. Welcome back ESJ; post pekinese ankle dampness, I hope; but thought you might be tied up proofreading ‘the thinkskin manifesto’ tonight of all nights.

  6. Possum – that is an odd sort of article (but hopefully it appeals to those it’s meant to). The writer is kind of an interesting thinker though – he has mounted realist responses to the terrorism trope since the Reagan excursions in the first ‘war on terror’. Here’s a bit he had to say (out of the other side of his mouth) to The Nation: http://www.thenation.com/doc/20080512/vila.

  7. FG – I’m living in hope. Remember those rumours about 7 NC SDs who were on the brink of coming out as a group for Obama before Wright? Maybe they’ve settled now. They have great cover if they really want to move.

  8. 1252 JV

    I’m gobsmacked. I have to admit the battering of the last month and the tumbling polls had me feeling a tad pessimistic. I couldn;t see how a +5 Clinton win in Indiana and a +6 Obama win in NC (according to the poll averages) could save Obama’s campaign. Politics is a tough business and there would come a time when the falling polls and negative psychology of the campaign would have to take a toll on the SD’s thinking. So today was make or break for the Kid. If he stuck to the polls, he could, at best, have fallen over the nomination line but would have been damaged – possibly fatally – for the November campaign.

    But The Kid trashed the polls, stormed Hillary Hill and stood tall bouyed on the shoulders of those desperate for change.

    Chalk one up for the good guys.

    And the MSN is now fixated on the end of Clinton. The narrative has changed. What a difference a day makes!

  9. Pancho – re the Conservative article
    Gosh! – this from a conservative is tantamount to saying “God damn America”” I reckon (in arguing that electing Obama might prevent the Iraq war going on and on as it would under McCain and thereby giving war a bad name for the future exploits of the neocons):

    Above all, there is this: the Iraq War represents the ultimate manifestation of the American expectation that the exercise of power abroad offers a corrective to whatever ailments afflict us at home. Rather than setting our own house in order, we insist on the world accommodating itself to our requirements. The problem is not that we are profligate or self-absorbed; it is that others are obstinate and bigoted. Therefore, they must change so that our own habits will remain beyond scrutiny.

  10. 1249 ESJ

    Looks a great read. I’ll add it to the list. I’m just about to start “We wish to inform you that tomorrow we will be killed with our families: Stories from Rwanda” by Philip Gourevitch. I’m just at the end of The Zimmerman Telegram by Tuchman. I’m surprised the Kaiser is not hated more by history. What a meddlesome immature narcissist!

  11. FG – It seems to me like just hard work. His campaign swarmed – bussing early voters about in Indiana, organising shows at colleges in NC to get kids voting, and breaking turnout records all over the place. He just stayed on the ground and won vote by vote, letting Clinton play stupid messages and gas tax games. Story of the whole campaign really, summed up in one day.

  12. Obama is no Dukakis or McGovern, and the US economy is falling apart and war in Iraq drags on… The American people are itching to get rid of the republicans. He will be president this time next year.

  13. Apparently Hillary has cancelled her meeting with the Super’s tomorrow and is instead flying to West Virginia to campaign, then it’s on to a fundraiser in New York.

    She’s fishin’ for something.

  14. Doesn’t really float my boat either. But apparently ‘No Country For Old Men’ was a cracker. Although I’m sure some of that whizzed by me too.

  15. >She’s fishin’ for something.

    The only fish left in this sea are dolphins and right now their all turning into Flippers for Obama…

  16. Three thoughts are apparent about this election:

    1. Why did Obama block the Florida and Michigan re-votes? Apart from the obvious that she was going to win them it seems reasonably clear that any win has to be a “clean win” ie being seen to win fairly and actually winning numerically.

    I believe there were 400 delegates in FL and MI assuming at best a 60-40 split Hilary couldnt have caught him anyway but it would have boosted his credibility enormously – or he should have proposed giving her half on condition there was a superdelegate primary in June which would have had the same effect. He should come out and do it now. This way he will be seen to have won dirty.

    2. The race will go on comrades – Obama is about 200 short and there are only 220 supers at the moment. Many of these dont want to be seen to endorse anyone given they are in conservative districts. Therefore he needs to have a controlled flow of supers now followed by a mix of pledged delegates up to Oregon to have it appear that he won it on the primaries.

    Finally how is he going to win Whites and Hispanics, those 12 delegate leads in Democrat heartlands in Utah, Kansas have a lot to answer for. I guess Patti Solis whatsiname aint gonna be on the Clinton Christmas card list. After all the black population is only about 20% of the US total pop less those in gen pop of course.

    NC he got 91% of the black vote and about 38% of the White vote – those are Dukakis type figures.

  17. The clear strategy for Obama from here on in is to continue to run on-the-ground campaigns in the primaries that remain but to publicly ignore HRC and simply focus upon McCain. She will now wilt through lack of relevance.

  18. And now the real battle begins…

    From the Wall Street Journal:

    “The Obama campaign appears poised to begin running its general election campaign after Tuesday night’s primaries seemed unlikely to change the math or the momentum in the Democratic nomination.

    David Axelrod, the top Obama strategist, told reporters that Barack Obama would compete for the six remaining Democratic contests, where 217 delegates are at stake. But he said that the campaign would soon focus on the general election because likely Republican nominee John McCain had “basically run free for some time now because we’ve been consumed with this.” He added: “I don’t think we’re going to spend time solely in primary states.”


  19. At the risk of over Coening, Smile@1272:

    ‘You don’t say much my friend, but when you do it’s to the point, and I salute you for it.’

  20. Whilst the mutual admirartion society chirp tulips , the sleeper issue you guys say is a non issue (the Pastor) showed up strongly in both exit polls. This non issue has not been advertised in ads by Hillary being a Democrat ,but the polls show its there awaiting to appealed to by the Repugs who will push it per exit polls to receptive ears

    The problem with you guys is you believed the ‘message’ without checking out the detail. So far Obama has faced friendly fire from within , a fellow Democrat candidate inhibited by how far she can go ito the Obama skeletons. Not so the Repugs , and most of the Obama skeletons are just like the Pastor…from his ‘gafe’ mouth.

    Just a few , we have the ‘clean’ Obama myth ,with the non lobbyist & non PAC donation myth. The Repugs have gone through the list better than I but there’s over 25 million n the register from PAC’s & lobbyists , excluding the individual Oil & Lobbyist company donations

    We’ve go his pro Family but pro Guns & pro Gun manufactory Senate yes votes. HIS threat in front of credible executives to nuke Iran , and further Pakistan and plenty more all sourced from his mouth

    Then there was the nonsense over Healthcare. prefers to leave the uninsured & underinsured poor a choice (some choice) to choose Healthcare Insurance or not, leaving Insurance Co’s to set their own premiums.a detailed look at his own policy protocols shows it’s a right wing based policy to keep the Insurance Industry on side
    The ALP would call it a ‘Howard free competition policy’. (Hillary’s close to ALP’s)

    But perhaps Obama most indecent comment for the Repugs to direct to the females of America :

    Obama at Philly “I could no more disown him than I can disown my white grandmother.”. Obama placed his Grandmother equal to the divisive whaco Wright

    Obama at Philly “but a woman 9Grandmother) who once confessed her fear of black men who passed by her on the street, and who on more than one occasion has uttered racial or ethnic stereotypes that made me cringe”

    The point was ‘whites’ are like Wright , make divisive racial comments even Grandmother
    To use your own Grandmother for political reasons & to denigrate her ,an indecent man

  21. Just looking at Republican vote in Indiana: Hucklebee still got 10%, which shows there are still a chunk of the rightwing who are bitter with McCain. Romney got 5% which is understandable as he is a favourite son.

  22. 1251
    Possum Comitatus

    ha! That’s funny Poss!

    Stupid (old) White men have been rather over-indulged over the last few thousands of years, eh?

    Neocons are just the latest version.

  23. Eddy, you write such lucid prose. Apart from the absurdity of your item #1 at 1270 deftly pointed by 🙂 , you appear obsessed with comparing Gov Dukakis with Sen Obama.

    Mikey tanked, on Obi you can bank! Pourquoi?

    Atwater and his proto-swiftboaters did Dukakis in, Axelrod and Obi’s War Room have played it a treat so far against the best that Atwater’s spawn, Rover the Fox Terrier, can yap up.

    Rove got trashed in 2006, his Grand Plan lost GOPpers control of The House and a Senate majority. It’s just that he hasn’t noticed his same ol’
    same ol’ just doesn’t cut it antmore. He’s past it. The wild Rover no more.
    There’s a new Kid in town and his handlers are Group One.

  24. And the press continues to hail the upcoming Obama nomination. This from The Economist:

    “BARACK OBAMA once said that of the three contests in Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Indiana, the last would be the “tie-breaker”. He was right. His Democratic presidential rival, Hillary Clinton, won the first. He won the second on Tuesday May 6th, romping home in North Carolina with 56.2% to Mrs Clinton’s 41.5%. The margin of victory, nearly 15 points, was much larger than had been expected. As for the tie-breaker, Mrs Clinton won in Indiana, but by such a small margin (50.9% to 49.1%), that it all but counts as a victory for Mr Obama.

    Thus it looks most likely that Mr Obama will be the Democratic nominee. Indeed some expect Mrs Clinton to withdraw from the race in the coming days. ”


  25. More from the Economist:

    “The race is close to over. If Mrs Clinton chooses to drag it out, it is hard to see how she could continue later than May 20th. By then, three more states will have voted: Kentucky, West Virginia and Oregon. The first two are strong for her, the last for him, but they are all too small to matter now. Whenever Mrs Clinton decides to bow out, expect Mr Obama and Mr McCain now to begin campaigning as though autumn’s general election has truly begun.”

  26. I asked earlier for someone to play the Last Post for Hillary. I was wrong …they play Taps in the US.

    Time for a Tap dance

  27. 1264
    Possum Comitatus

    yeah, when you’re an ‘old’ white guy Poss, then you’ll be a reactionary far-right, misogynistic, racistic bastard, just like the rest of us! LOL

  28. “We’ve go his pro Family but pro Guns & pro Gun manufactory Senate yes votes. HIS threat in front of credible executives to nuke Iran , and further Pakistan and plenty more all sourced from his mouth”

    Note to Mark Penn’s right hand man: you’ve got yr candidates confused.

  29. I remember calling that the race would end this week in the week after Super Tuesday on this site. Not that I was the only one, it was just that if the two candidates were going to go delegate for delegate, it was always going to take this long. Except the result was clear before the March 4 contests even. Once Obama made the break of a 130 or so delegates it was always going to be an extremely hard task to chase him down.

    Hillary should have pack it in post-Texas, then gone and writen another book. She missed the boat, 2004 was the year for a run for her.

    Any fantasy that Superdelegates would save the day or the DNC would break its own rules are just that: Fantasy. No magic beans or golden gooses.

  30. “We’ve just been told that General Wesley Clark, a strong Clinton supporter and fellow Arkansan, called Hillary tonight to tell her it’s over.

    In addition to our source, the king of the pundits, Mark Halperin, drops a tantalizing hint that something might be up with Clark:
    “The biggest question: Will any of her supporters (including Wes Clark) say publicly or privately she should quit?””

  31. Pick of the bunch from RCP’s links du jour.

    The Kid can take a punch!

    “Last week, not a soul in politics would have predicted that Obama would win North Carolina by 14 points and virtually tie in Indiana. But through a combination of luck and smarts, the campaign ended on the theme that Obama ran on: Old politics vs. new politics…….

    In the end Obama showed the kind of resilience that was supposed to apply only to the Clintons. Between May and November, Obama will have other low moments. But now he has some experience surviving them.”


  32. “Senator Clinton has made another multi-million dollar loan to her campaign. She gave $6.4M in the past month and will be giving more”. From Drudge

  33. ESJ @ 1270 that didn’t take long, wet ankles again…

    KR ‘Stupid (old) White men have been rather over-indulged’…them’s fighting words pal…hint, young…

  34. That’s a hard piece to read Poss, that one of Andrew J. Bacevich’s.

    It must have been heart breaking to write.

  35. 1289

    The Alien is wounded, bleeding, and lurching towards her final demise.

    Starving for oxygen, asphixiated on the last lap, it’s her own private Kentucky Derby.

  36. I dunno, I think the pink-faced niggler might sustain her for a little while, whispering sweet horribles about the nasty young man steal what is theirs into her ear. Hope not though.

  37. 1288
    Enemy Combatant

    If you didn’t, go back and read Brooks in the NYT yesterday.

    My god, you’d swear the conservative’s darling had gotten himself some Obama lovin’.


  38. From the Chicago Tribune under the heading: “Clinton may have 9 lives, but she’s down for the count”

    “Hillary must know that the Democratic bosses, who are expert in calculating gender and race, have calculated against her.

    What’s left is the counting. She’s determined, a tough and gritty cat under that deck. But it’s over Hillary. It’s done. Come on out now.”


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