Slate presents the Democratic race in seven (and a half) minutes.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
View all posts by William Bowe
1198
Pancho
ha! (gutteral version!!!)
That’s one up on Laura Bush doing a press conference yesterday and chiding the Burmese over their lousy performance after the cyclone.
Man, that’s my new definition for the word “shameless”.
But Hill with a begging bowl?
Take it out of your 100 million, baby, would be my reply!
The cheek! LOL
Today’s victory for Obama shows that Wright-gate, bitter-gate, and all the other manufactured smear campaigns are not working.
Like Rudd last year, Americans want to like Obama and are therefore taking the effort to see through the sleaze, listening to his responses to accusations, and giving him the benefit of the doubt.
It’s absolutely fitting and makes Obama’s emergence as the new Dem. nominee so timely, because as Obama promises a new style of politics that treats citizens like adults, signs are showing that the old politics of assuming the lowest common denominator (which people like Adam and Ron are still relying on) is disappearing.
Well that was an exciting day, I didn’t know US politics could be so much fun.
Anyone thinking McCain will be sworn in only has to visualize him raising his right arm and saying….
(OK, guess not! LOL)
Because he won’t be there. He’ll be in his rocking chair watching Obama on TV.
Yes he can.
KR – ye of little faith.
I was trying to to tell ya IN would be close – even at 85% counted.
22 thou though – didnt think it would that close!
Board Odds: Cbet
OBAMA, Barack 2.00
MCCAIN, John 2.65
CLINTON, Hillary 4.70
The Kid was available at 2.30 yesterday.
Need a Rush in Indiana?
Here’s one:
Among Democratic primary voters, 11% were self-identified Republicans and they went for Clinton 52% to 46%. There is no data on how many of these were just following Rush Limbaugh’s instructions to wreak havoc and how many were fed up with George Bush. But it is certainly possible that Clinton owes her 2% win to Limbaugh, which taints it somewhat
electoral-vote.com
Yes, Obama had a good win in Sweet Carolina.
Yes, Hillary had a narrow win in Indiana Jones.
But the fundamentals have not changed a bit, have not changed. yes, the hill gets steeper but she is a Hill, so she will fight harder and tougher. I will concede when my candidate concedes. I will say again, Obama might the battle but he will lose the war, because he’s never been through a war.
Finns
Neither had Ruddski been through a war. He still seemed to do okay. The similarities between Rudd/Obi and Howard/Hill are getting closer.
Finns! Is this worth another jig: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/?p=848&cp=7#comment-149259 ?
1192
Ahhhh the gutteral growl of Ol Yella
1205
Possum Comitatus
Ha! I could see it going ‘close’ Poss, but that was the point, it was virtually a loss to her after the build up about ‘coming back’ blah de blah blah. Especially after the money they spent in NC and the flogging she took there.
It didn’t matter by then, but I love the way you do those spreadsheets!
Are we a sad bunch of cyberpunks or what?
As Paul Simon wrote:
The thought that life can be better
Is woven indelibely,
Into our hearts and our brains.
(Hearts and Bones)
jaundiced view 1158 Says:
“ r/Ron #1145 – [Racial inequality against a white]
Yep, Obama’s black r/Ron. A shame you don’t like that, but I suppose it’s your right not to like blacks.”
Some of your supporters followed suit similiarly
Ron : I stand by my political comment arguing merit & electability vs Team Obama’s non merit racial inequality ‘black’ entitled based argument You’ve twisted this to me not liking ‘blacks’
Had you read my blog early Sunday #211, you would have known I was voluntarily spending all Sunday looking after over 20 about 8/10 year olds , disadvantaged kids & parents. Among other things I was taking them all to the AFL footy for free.What I didn’t say then as it wasn’t relevant , but I did already know , was the ethenic origin makeup. ALL the kids were “aussies”., but the parents origin varied : 10% were aussie born, some of rest were from Asia, some from M/E (with shawls) but the biggest number came from Sudan & Angola..All the Sudanese & Angolans were ‘”black.” I guess this is consistent with your quote: “I suppose it’s your right not to like blacks.”
…….not where Ron comes from.
Evening all.
I notice Hillary now has a seriously wet bum on Deathwatch.
A truly great day!
Harryd”H
Nothing to offer again.
You are this blogs biggest loser, goodbye.
1209
Diogenes
I do recall, way back, when I first suggested that the USA was in need of a little ‘change’ and that the Ruddster was a portent of what Obama would do.
You know who then called us all a bunch of ‘ignorant loathing lefties’?
Betcha can’t guess!
Saw something on HuffPo, KR, where the motor-mouthed hatemonger pulled enough registered GOPpers to the polls in IA to cost The Kid a few Dels there. Big picturewise, it’s academic to Tuesday’s result. Theoretically these “crossovers” will only be able to vote once in November and they were always gonna vote GOP anyway.
The Sep Establishment is oozing desperation. Newtie said so yesterday too, after Dems picked up that House seat in LA for the first time in eons.
Peter,
Initially I didn’t have a problem with Hillary and didn’t mind who won the nomination. Her Iran comments and the gas tax holiday destroyed all respect I had for her.
I think right now looms as the best time for Hillary Clinton to concede. Over the last few contests, there was still a positive spin that she could come from behind and take it. Now the narrative is lost, things are not looking good, and it is the perfect time to exit the stage gracefully.
If she stays in the race for now, she’s not going to leave after a big win in West Virginia next week, and she’ll probably have a big win in Kentucky versus an Obama big win in Oregon the week after. That leaves the Puerto Rico, Montana and South Dakota on the 1st and 3rd of May as the final contests before the convention. I expect the heat will be coming down hard on her from supers over the next week.
Hillary’s out to $8 on betfair for democractic candidate.
Betfair:
Obama 1.95
McCain 2.82
Clinton 9.80 (pretty much the longest she’s been as far as I know).
McCain priced at just above 35% probability – sounds about right. He’s behind Obama but far from out of it yet.
1214
Ferny Grover
g’day Ferny, and welcome back to the bloggpit!
Great day indeed.
It’s a ‘wooden stake’ day, delivered slowly, inexorably and now, finally.
The relief here is palpable, and now all that’s left is the funeral rites, and then life can go on.
Bring it on!
1215
nothin on ya hook again…..re-cast
1208
Could it be that American voters are over the Hill?
To paraphrase the Serbian communists, for the trots
The national orgasm has begun.
HarryH
Don’t bother trying to teach the boy how to fish Harry, he’s been doing the raw prawn so long now he’s just about got the hang of it.
Al @ 1218,
I think she will concede now for two related reasons:
– lack of money
– How does she justify taking donations from now, knowing that even future victories cannot bring her the nomination?
As for her being Obama’s VP, she’s left that one far too late.
Some far away, ceremonial role (Ambassador to London or Paris?) is about the best she can hope for. Or else back to sit with her “friends” in the Senate.
Funny, the weird old uncle that turns up at funerals is here!
Right on cue.
But old Hillary was supposed to vanquish the nigga? My god, and he’s come here to rant over her corpse!
Must have been lonely with just that flagon of sherry, eh?
ESJ
Whern, where and how do I join.
After all, we are all Serbs now.
1226
Dyno
Yep, it’s not with a bang but a whimper, as she finally starves for oxygen. The writing was on the wall a couple of weeks back, she was in debt, and PA only bought her a bit more time, it did not pay off the principal.
Foreclosure is quite a popular option in the US at the moment, so I hear.
For some reason Sportingbet has pulled the US election off its site at the moment.
Just heard all of Obama’s speech – very Presidential. They can paint him all they want, as soon as he starts speaking it all falls away. And I noticed a few bits that have not been in the stump speech. Particularly the mention of his white grandfather the veteran. And several Reaganesque anecdotes. But the golden highlight is on here between 13:00 and 13:20 – have a look. A guaranteed chuckle: http://www.thenation.com/blogs/campaignmatters/318585/a_change_is_gonna_come
Oh, here we go again, the tag team. One can actually construct a literate sentence and the other pours in the bear bile, freshly extracted.
But tell me this boys: how come Hillary Clinton, the ‘great white hope’, is down on her last million, up to her neck in debt, way behind on the popular vote, sinking on Supers, hopelessly behing on delegates, and pumpin’ cheap gas at a diner for the lunch bucket brigade?
Tell me boys, if you’re so smart, just why is this?
She was, after all, as you told us over and over and over, the most ‘electable’, no, the only ‘electable’ candidate.
So?
Pancho
He walked on stage last night and flicked the switch from Dem candidate to Presidential candidate.
He has gears.
Peter Tucker – There’s no hatred directed at Hillary from me – it’s no worse than distain. There has been some bizarre behaviour from Hillary during the campaign. It’s along the lines of what Possum said, plus heaps more. But if you want to analyse it, really it’s just an extrapolation from two camps – one for change and the other against it. The old Progressives versus the Conservatives – the starting point being relative to the Dem nomination race. Fascinating, isn’t it?
Hey ESJ -Welcome back. It is the ESJ of old isn’t it? Did you get a clearance from William – like Wendell Sailor or Matt Henjak?
“Two Clinton advisers acknowledged last night that the campaign mishandled expectations for the North Carolina primary by raising the possibility of a close race or even a narrow Clinton victory there.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/07/us/politics/07cnd-clinton.html?pagewanted=2&_r=1&hp
You reckon? What a genius campaign! Why don’t they just hire Mark Penn or something…oh.
I hope St George don’t buy ‘Dell…
Finally Obama is a candidate who does not get into gimmicks and kneejerk responses and ideological insulting tirades like Hilary with petrol prices and her comments on Iran. She will be gone soon, and then we will have someone who has some intelligence going for the job.
Yes we will have the good tsar finally eh?
I can’t find it now but someone (apologies to whoever it was) earlier said that Hillary’s odds for VP have shortened a lot all of a sudden. To an extent I suppose that simply reflects her reduced chances of getting the top nomination, but the commentators were giving that concept a real workover on MSNBC today. I wondered why, because it wouldn’t get such a run without some basis, I thought. Could there really be a deal? If so, an announcement would be imminent.
ESJ, did you happen to see Andrew Bacevich’s piece in the American Conservative a couple of months ago, and if so what did you make of it? If not: http://www.amconmag.com/2008/2008_03_24/article.html
And the narrative continues to prepare for the end of Clinton:
These two from The Australian:
This from Jack the Insider:
“After her narrow victory in Indiana, she told the Clinton faithful: “Tonight it’s your victory. Tonight we’ve come from behind. We’ve broken the tie and thanks to you, it’s full speed on to the White House.’’
It was a stunning piece of self-delusion that one would normally associate with drug addicts and losing football coaches.
But it’s all over for the populist wannabe. She would do well to listen to that tiny voice in her head that she’s clearly ignored for so long. The voice that keeps telling her over and over:
Go. Go now. And never darken the US presidential race again.”
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/jacktheinsider/index.php/theaustralian/comments/tell_your_story_walking_hillary/
And this from Gerard Baker: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23659811-5013948,00.html
And the shades of McGovern, Dukakis and Ozone Man beckon the Black prince – “come stand with us”.
If Adam pops by tonight, it would be nice if he could give us more info about this, which is a pretty nasty trend in Europe esp Germany.
GERMANY has banned two regional far-right organisations suspected of denying the Nazis’ slaughter of six million Jews and launched early morning raids against their members.
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,23661250-5005962,00.html
Spose you have form on your side ESJ, with that tip. 🙂 But I guess you’ve gotta get right back on that bike.
The New York Post leads with:
“STICK A FORK IN HER – SHE’S DONE”
http://www.nypost.com/seven/05072008/news/columnists/stick_a_fork_in_her___shes_done_109792.htm
FG – ha!
So, how many SD pledges will we wake to? 5? 10?
Diogenes – Have you read “Dinner with Mugabe” worth a look
GG – Keep the faith, you have been the Bukharin of the forces of the moderation in the long dark winter.
Pancho Left – ahead lies heartbreak.
ESJ – you’ll get over it. So you got it wrong. No big deal. And Rudd ain’t so bad either. But keep picking yourself up.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=YtzgwNDZAs4