1,359 comments on “North Carolina and Indiana minus four days”

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  2. Put those champers corks back in Obama, Ron’s on the case:

    “I’ll blog the stats separately , which I’m emailing to various Directors in team Hillary”

  3. Ron

    Sometimes i wonder if you’re really just repeating John Stewart routines in an effort to lighten the mood around here.

    Unfortunately, you’re comments are evidence of the challenge faced by black men in America. Their performance is always linked (by others) to their race. For Obama, a man who has suceeded in the face of amazing odds, who stands as evidence of the rhetoric of the America dream, to have to face (your) accusations that he only got where he was because he is black is sad.

    Obama’s skin colour has no doubt presented so many obstacles in his life. When he does something well (i.e. win the nomination for his party to fight the Nov election), why can’t you just leave his skin colour out of it. There is no conspiracy. He earnt it.

  4. Sean Hannity is currently very downbeat and whinily asking:

    “we’ve raised Rev Wright, we’ve raised Bill Ayres, we’ve raised the elite stuff. What do we have to do to make an impact against this guy?”

    bahahaha

  6. Ron at 1145, you sound like a mad scientist cursing the universe for persisting with it’s “infernal” laws of physics while you tinker on your Delorian…

  8. r/Ron – [Racial inequality against a white]
    Yep, Obama’s black r/Ron. A shame you don’t like that, but I suppose it’s your right not to like blacks. … It’s all being flushed out now.

  9. One more fact – the DCW superdeegate count was updated last night +1 to Obama. The superdelegate in question was The Cumberland County commissioner, Jeanette Council. This brings the Clinton superdelegate advantage down to just 6.5.

    Obama: 262 (255+7)
    Clinton: 268.5 (269.5-1)

  10. Also worth noting, looking at the calendar, is that the combined number of delegate remaining to be allocated in all 6 scheduled contests, is barely more than those decided today (217 to 187). Meaning that while all media cover a win in a given state as being worth roughly as much as any other (a headline is a headline), HRC has basically run out of possible big delegate bounces. She can gain a total of a few dozen by completing expected big victories in Kentucky, West Virginia and Puerto Rico (and hope not to bleed any back in Oregon, Montana and South Dakota). That’s all. Her pledged delegate fight, doomed from a long time back, is now over.

    If HRC is silly enough, and somehow finds a million or two more to loan her campaign, then Obama can afford to put in a token effort in West Virginia and Kentucky so as to not raise anyone’s expectations there, focussing all of his efforts on Oregon. If you look at a map of results, Oregon is well and truly Obama-belt country (sharing more in common with Washington to the north than California to the south), and a 5%+ win there would negate any publicity she gets from winning Kentucky on the same day, and surely finally put that Lazarus-with-a-quintuple-bypass campaign of HRC’s to bed.

  13. And that, folks, in the experimental mind of Ron, is what you call a graceful concession speech.

    Despite my earlier promise, I will take issue with one thing that Ron accidentally said: that Obama cannot win North Carolina in November.

    North Carolina is exactly the kind of state that justifies Obama being the Democrat candidate. It last went to the Dems in the 60s or 70s, HRClinton would have to write it off, and it’s seemingly a Repub fortress, having recorded 56:43 Repub results in each of 2004 and 2000, and a 49:43 Repub result in 1996. Yet there is (as with so many Southern states), an underlying Democrat voting base: the Governor is a Dem, and the NC reps to the US House are split evenly between Repubs and Dems (albeit both senators are Repubs). Both houses of the state legislature are controlled by Dems.

    Add to that the energising personal appeal of Obama to uncommitted, independents and hitherto non-voters (e.g. in a huge basketball state, don’t underestimate seemingly trivial things like the fact he can play), and the Dems can have a legitimate expectation that Obama will make NC line-ball.

  14. Further to what SimonH said about NC being on the cards: more people voted in todays Democratic primary in North Carolina than voted for Kerry in 2004, and if all the people who voted today had voted for Gore in 2000, he would have beaten Bush in Indiana. I bet that has alarm bells going off for the GOP.

  15. I thought that even the most ardent Hillary fan had to concede that a bollocking in NC and a photo finish in IN spelled the end for Hillary, but Ron proves he really lives on another planet

    And just heard Hillary on the news proclaim “onward to the white house!”

  19. 1154
    HarryH

    You mean to tell me that Hannity is not an impartial reporter but a paid member of the republican dirt machine?

    As you’d say, you could have knocked me down with a feather! LOL

  20. Ron, you’re so right!

    This ‘affirmative action’ (AA), where the voters keep putting the black guy ahead on every metric must stop!

    So, with you and Adam on the case, how long before Camp Clinton figures it out that the Super Delegates are only afraid of being seen as raciss, and really, deep down, are just going along with this cunning plot of Obama’s to lure them into the AA routine.

    My goodness, that nigga’s a tricky one, eh Ron?

    Glad to see you’ve got it figured out, though.

    Keep us posted (I just know you will! ).

  21. ron/Ron @ 1145 ‘ I’ll blog the stats separately , which I’m emailing to various Directors in team Hillary’…

    Don’t forget the killer ‘thinkskin’ & be careful with your ‘k’s’…

  22. Some interesting numbers (oh, I’m sorry, I’m posting real data, I know I shouldn’t, but I’m going to anyway)! The number of blog comments on Obama’s site compared to Clinton’s site since election day morning until now.

    Clinton: 1,807
    Obama: 8,843

    Back before Pensilvania the numbers were almost neck and neck. This has to be biting into the campaign fund-raising capacity – and if that assumption is right, one can ask the question about her ability to effectively campaign in the remaining contests.

  23. Ron, better get those emails in to “various Directors in team Hillary”, because it looks like they’re about to throw in the (‘white’) towel:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/07/AR2008050700065.html

    >The outcome caused the candidate and her campaign to intensify their efforts to persuade party leaders to include the results of disqualified contests in Michigan and Florida, both of which she won. The Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws committee is scheduled to meet on May 31 to consider two challenges pending on whether, and how, to seat delegates from those states.

    >”Absent some sort of miracle on May 31st, it’s going to be tough for us,” said a senior Clinton official who spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to be frank. “We lost this thing in February. We’re doing everything we can now . . . but it’s just an uphill battle.”

  24. Struth ron/Ron, get cracking…

    ‘The highly paid strategists of the Clinton campaign sharpened their pencils and carefully calculated their arcane political equations. Following a series of deft tactical maneuvers designed to manufacture a withering crisis, the mainstream media would subject Obama to another week on the defensive against the phantasmagorical sayings of Rev. Wright following his madcap spree of ill-advised press conferences manufactured to stimulate the undercurrents of racial intolerance still roiling just beneath the surface tension of America.’

    http://www.alternet.org/election08/84645/

    Oh dear, it gets worse…

    ‘In a nutshell, the Reverend Wright strategy backfired.’

  25. 1174
    codger

    Codge old son, I think she may have had advice to that effect just before she went down the 18c option!

    There was Hillary, decrying his ‘patriotism’ one moment, and pumpin’ cheaper gas the next. I mean, what a come down from the lofty heights, eh?

  26. Here is an excellent article on a good reason for Billary to concede now. It is beautifully Machiavellian. perhaps she will chuck it in tomorrow.

    There’s a reason to concede now, one that I could believe Clinton could go for.

    Not because of party unity, not to ensure the Democrats future in November, but to ensure her political future.

    Here it is: Obama will be the nominee. Clinton does have the option of destroying his electability, fighting to the bitter end and not working to unify the party after he finally gets the nomination. The result will be a McCain presidency. She would almost certainly run again in 2012, but the memory of what she did to the party would remain in the minds of many, possibly poisoning her chances.

    So she concedes now. She gives an elegant and spirited speech about how she fought hard, and is so grateful to everyone who stood by her, but that, in the interest of the party, of her country, she will step aside from her dream. She won’t campaign for Obama nor make an effort to bring her people to him, and she could (very quietly) work against him, deep behind the scenes. If she’s lucky McCain will win because of the rift in the Democratic Party. She runs in 4 years, and everyone will remember her, not as the one who tore the party to pieces, but the one who sacrificed herself, after almost getting the nomination, for the good of her party. It’s a much stronger position for her, and a reason to seriously consider conceding now, one that could seem attractive to Clinton.

    http://poligazette.com/2008/05/07/concession-a-clintonian-reason/

  27. Well kiddies, today’s results confirm what we already knew.

    Obama doesn’t win the line ball contests.
    Obama wins the ones that don’t count convincingly (the difference between winning by six goals and twelve goals).

    Obama has a huge credibilty problem with white, blue collar voters, women and voters over 45. Classic Howard Battlers and “Reagan Democrats”.

    It looks like the “Turkey’s voting for Christmas” syndrome all over again.

  30. Seriously, we’re all kidding ourselves if we think the general is a foregone conclusion. Moreover there’s every chance the last two months have hurt Obama in ways that could still matter, come November.
    But Hillary? All she has left to decide is:
    – when and how to concede
    – how to explain to her donors why she’s been wasting their money for the past few weeks.

  31. OK. I’ve followed most of the preceding 1170+ posts on this thread with a great deal of interest. The following might seem a stupid response.

    Posters here are overwhelmingly Obama supporters, which is no problems, but as a political observer I’ve always wondered just why Hillary C is so unpopular. Why?

    I’m not saying she is my type of gal, but there again there are plenty of politicians I don’t “like” too much as people (insofar as can be judged through the media filter) but that does not mean I don’t think they are good politicians. Why is Hillary so hated? Why do seen through so many jaundiced eyes?

    Surely she would make a very good US president, whatever she does to you personally. She is:

    Intelligent
    Calculating
    A good problem solver
    Energetic
    Thorough
    Ruthless
    Pragmatic

    And she knows how policy making, at presidential, works. All these, I would think, are the qualities an American president should have.

    Maybe Obama has them too. He looks like being the candidate, so let’s hope so. I still don’t get the Hillary-hatred thing.

  34. Huge movement on the betting market. Obviously Obi has shortened as nominee and for POTUS and Hillary has tanked in both. But the ENORMOUS shift is on Betfair.

    Hillary is 2/1 favourite as VP candidate. What’s going to be announced tomorrow? Has Obi given her the phone call?

    Diogenes’ rumour file

    Hillary to concede tomorrow and announce she will be Obama’s VP candidate.

  36. January 20th 2009 – shortly after noon

    Chief Justice John Roberts:

    “Repeat after me”

    Chief Justice John Roberts and President-elect John Sidney McCain together

    “I do solemnly swear that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my Ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States so help me God.”

    Chief Justice Roberts:

    “Congratulations Mr President”

  38. OK

    so now Hillary is done and dusted it’s GG, Finns and Rain to the interchange bench, and on to the field springs ESJ and Glen to tell us why Bomb Bomb will thrash the Kid and why he is unelectable.

    Here we go again.

    U jumpin on the Bomb Bomb xpress too GG?

  39. Peter,

    I’m not fussed on Clinton because she plays her politics like John Howard in a blue dress.

    I also think her projection as a policy heavyweight is, and has always been, a fantasy of her own PR making.

    Her health plan under Bills regime – the foundational policy plank she’s always fallen back on to reinforce this myth – was unworkable sludge that tried to buy off the very special interest pleaders that are the root cause of the problem.

    If you want to see the truth about Clintons policy capability and her nonchalance when it comes to sacrificing quality public outcomes for the politics of her own personal benefit, you need go no further than the Gas Tax Holiday stupidity.

    And I dont like any politician that thinks the public owes them anything more than a shitcanning.

  40. ESJ

    I’m very pleased to see you are back. Partly for your witty repartee but mainly to update the score.

    Diogenes 2 (Suharto, Albert Hofmann-he was 102 but it still counts)
    ESJ 0

    But from Death List we have missed Charlton Heston, Arthur C Clarke, Richard Widmark, Francis Pym and Hillary Clinton…whoops wrong death list for that last one.

  42. Harryd’H

    Someone who has never offerrred anything of substance thinks they are an intellectual deity.

    Dead bears, head, bum, stick up.

    You work out how it fits together, savant.

  45. I know GG – tonight is a night for celebration. So you couldn’t see the inevitable, no one holds that against you. 🙂 I’m sure you’ll do better with your next prediction…

  46. Wed. May 7: Obi’s opposition just doesn’t get it.
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/henrypayne;_ylt=Avn.C3VBUk.HHcAbNgnaMUs0vTYC

    Wed May 7:
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/robrogers;_ylt=AqvqizTWFfTcixcPPg1mNLYXvTYC
    Btw, if you like Robert Downey Jnr and a few belly laughs (or Kirri LOLs), if you MUST take your nippers or teens to a film, try this. “Twas grand seeing Terence Howard (he’s black) telling the white Strategic Command officers to hold their fire on a “UFO”. Portentous even.

    Wed. May 7 Omen punting. (DeathWatch makes it to the track)
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/billschorr;_ylt=ArtbcVdeGNiXrfvpm5o4QVsxvTYC
    —————-
    Eddy, how lovely to see you. Your in-depth Historical appraisals have been sorely missed.

    RB, did you know that ESJ is a trained Historian too? Sort of a Neocon pinch-hitter.

  48. I know nothing of the source, but here’s some f@#%ing gall if anywhere near the truth:

    “Mrs Clinton’s financial crisis is now acute and by late Tuesday the hot story was that her closest advisors are already in secret negotiations with the Obama camp, offering a deal. She will withdraw from the race on condition that Obama pays off her campaign debt, which may now be nearing $25m; also that he makes her his running-mate in the fall.”
    http://www.thefirstpost.co.uk/33615,opinion,its-all-but-over-for-hillary-clinton,2

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