1,359 comments on “North Carolina and Indiana minus four days”

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  2. SimonH – I realized this. I was only imagining a scenario where Obama just overtook Hillary before Union County, but anyway, Obama will be falling a few thousand votes short anyway.

    I was expecting Hillary to win Indiana by around 6%, not .7% – so a great day for Obama supporters… and the Democrat Party overall.

    I think Obama should turn his attention to McCain now… let the real battle begin!

  3. I was about to make a post, asking for predictions on what the new slate ‘Hillary Deathwatch’ odds will be… only to find they’ve updated already.

    Yesterday? 12.6%. Today? 4.2%.

    Ouch.

    (Link)

  7. What else will the SD’s do tomorrow but say “Let’s end this” ?
    What earthly reason is there for doing otherwise? (Hillary may welll have some non-earthly reasons, but these won’t wash anymore)

  9. Max @ 1103 – Hillary with 4.2% chance of the nomination?
    That’s a bit like giving a cadaver on a slab in the morgue a 4.2% chance of being alive because the fingernails are still growing.

  10. Phew! Just caught up and have to go again soon.

    But what a freakin’ ride!! After the bollocking The Kid has received over the past month I wouldn’t have thought we’d be looking at a virtual dead heat in IN and a total shelacking by Obama in NC.

    Someone play the last post on the Clinton era will ya’.

  11. Hillary will concede tomorrow…and no i don’t want any wine.

    Just provving i’m moore elite than youse is enogh.

  15. Ah, but what if the Repugs really fear Clinton and it was like some ultimate double double cross?

    Yeah… Think about it….

  17. 1115
    Yo ho ho

    Or, as Maxwell Smart would say: “…she missed it by only this much. Would you believe, this much?”

    Or, how much Kaos is too much?

  18. Comin’ in on a wing and a prayer:

    And another great piece of drama: Lee Cowan on MSNBC reports that as the Obama plane was descending in Chicago, coming in from Raleigh, someone called air traffic control to turn on their TVs to relay what was happening on the ground in Indiana. So much for safe landings.

    NYT

    …the Eagle has landed.

  19. Believe it or not – Zogby came in closest of the polls.

    LOL they did too.

    Reminds me of Morgan last year. Polls were complete garbage for something like 102 consecutive releases prior to the election… then they pulled an accurate one out of their arses on the last day.

    Strange world.

  20. Not a good result for the RCP average – it said 8% for Obama in NC and 5% for Clinton in IN. Teagan Goddard might be right about the value of that averaging.

  21. The MSN narrative is already claiming Obama is now the presumptive nominee.

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/Story?id=4795193&page=1

    But there is one last desperate roll of the dice for Hillary:

    “We’re going to argue that it’s going to take 2,209 to get to the magic number,” said Howard Wolfson, one of Mrs. Clinton’s chief strategists. “We’re going to argue that Florida and Michigan need to be seated full-strength.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/07/us/politics/07assess.html?_r=3&hp&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin

  23. Zogby – Obama +4 in NC

    Zogby – Obama +2 in IN. They share the honours there with InsiderAdvantage which had Clinton +4

  25. yeah JV, RCP, that’s two really way under counts for Obama. I wonder what that says about the polling? Maybe the turnout is just swamping them?

    Some pseph will have to go digging, (won’t they Possum!).

  26. From the ABC:

    “Clinton Communications Director Howard Wolfson confirmed Clinton will meet with undecided superdelegates Wednesday to “ask for their support.”

    And if they show her the hand?

    Hillary’s negatives were a factor today:

    “Exit poll results indicate a continued criticism of Clinton for the tone of the campaign.

    In North Carolina two-thirds of voters said she attacked her opponent unfairly, as did about six in 10 in Indiana, reports ABC News’ Gary Langer.

    Fewer in both states — closer to four in 10 — said Obama attacked unfairly.”

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/Vote2008/Story?id=4795193&page=1

  27. It will be very interesting to see where the RCP nomination average is in a day or two.

    Currently it’s got Obama just 0.2% ahead, but given the funny polls they’ve had on the state primaries, is it any wonder?

    Get set for some shaking out of the numbers.

    Meanwhile the punters have flocked to Obama.

  28. Obi only needs 58 of the undecided SDs. That’s 21%. Watch the narrative shift to Florida and Michigan. How low and desperate can one person be? Well, we’re about to find out.

  30. KR – I remember Goddard was arguing that the averaging the last few polls like RCP do can magnify polling method errors in some circumstances, say, if two or more of the included polls have the same error.

  32. I don’t think there’s much uranium left fot HRC’s nuclear option with today’s results.

    She should ask for Senate Majority Leader or a cabinet position in exchange for bowing out gracefully.

    Her barganing position is only going to get weaker from here…

  33. How low you ask Dio???

    Well the Republican strategist and Sean Hannitty just outed the lovely Clampetts on Fox 5 mins ago.
    Said the whole Rev Wright story and tapes were fed to them by Clampett operatives.

  34. FG @ 1121: Like I said before, when she’s gone this far, pissed away this many millions, and is about to draw the curtain on her single-minded life’s ambition, why not press any nuclear buttons you can? Why die wondering?

    It will be a question of whether Dean and those in power at the DNC can be bullied behind the scenes now. And the answer is almost certainly that they can’t, because she has no bargaining power. Certain to lose in pleadged delegates, now certain to lose the popular vote, out of cash. If they just don’t outright tell her to rack off, they can blithely make her some ‘partial seating for Florida, something token for Michigan that doesn’t give you an undeserved windfall’ offer, knowing that she can’t take it.

    Because the way that SDs keep leaking, and Obama’s lead in regular delegates gets closer and closer to the number remaining to be allocated, she now needs not just Florida at full strength, but also the undeserved Michigan windfall, to have any chance.

  35. It also looks like Mrs Eighteen Cents did not swing most people either.

    You have to say that for someone who was a lay down misere to take this nomination earlier this year, she’s come down a long and bumpy road, and ended up standing at a bowser in hicksville spruiking ‘cheap gas’. From her desk in the Oval Office at 3am to this dusty gas station was some comedown.

    Her final makeover? Probably not, but christ, what a tacky note to finish this part of her race on.

  36. Smile – The commentators on MSNBC were seriously canvassing the VP option for Hillary – suggesting that it would be on the table a camp Clinton tonight as their next consideration. If I were Obama I’d probably suggest a very long run-up to a very big jump.

  37. 1135
    Kirribilli Removals Says: …christ, what a tacky note to finish this part of her race on.

    Wanna make a bet she can’t sink lower KR?

  38. 1133
    HarryH

    ouch!

    Smack her when she’s down! Won’t that go well in the party backrooms? And no doubt the punters that aren’t rusted onto her will take a dim view too.

    Onya Hill, you’ve lived down to expectations, and played exactly the game we knew you would.

    Pity about one thing: it hasn’t worked.

  40. 1137
    dogb

    er, no, actually! LOL

    I see it like Dr Strangelove, as I said earlier. One hand just twitching to push the nuke button, but the other holding it back while she contemplates the rest of her career and her place in history.

    My guess is that she could only create a massive brawl but not actually win it by dropping the big one, whereas she could go on to be a big cog in Obama’s administration if she accepts the inevitable with some face saving grace.

    She may be an Alien, but she’s not suicidal.

  41. By the way – Where have PB’s Clinton field operatives gone this afternoon? Surely they will now come aboard for the battle against McCain?? Or are they licking their wounds – and being mere baleful lurkers for a while?

  43. 1139
    Pancho

    Thanks Pancho, I’ll read it later.

    Gotta go be soccer practice dad now.

    Catch youse all later.

    Great day.

    History.

    History is one step closer.

  44. I haven’t followed this campaign as closely as last Novembers but it seems there might be some cause for optimism in that ‘lowest common denominator – how low can you go’ might be about to fail for a second significant time and that would please me no end. You would have thought that the western world would be becoming more educated and yet political standards have been dropping for some time. Are we on the way up again? if so why?
    Could Hilary have been nominated already if she’d been a little more positive? Is she just not capable, or has her campaign advice been poor?

  45. ADAM CARR

    420 blogs have been logged today by Obamabot petals swooning that Obama (Hillary also did) has won a ‘red’ State , that neither can win in November.

    I’ve done a statistical SD analysis (using the Democrats own site) since your blog last night indicating the ‘black’ Obama will be given the Nominee via SD’s , irrespective of whether he wins the delegate count or not , and irespective that he is clearly less electable than Hillary.

    You are correct. This is the ‘liberal’ N.E Democrats wing turning racial equality on its head. Obama is ‘black’ , if he’s close enough on delegates or 2% in front, it doesn’t matter, the ‘black’ candidate is owed the Nominee or the threat is the ‘black’ Democrat base will desert.(to where & so what). The merit of the best Candidate on merit inclusive of electability as a factor) is junked in favor racial inequality against a ‘white’. Next there will be a hispanic candidate , same threat.

    I hope Hillary does take her candidature to the Convention floor so the public can see publicly this ‘black’ liberal non merit based racial inequality. If this did occur , the ‘white’ backlash may deliver the 50 State to zip win for McCain that LBJ got in 1964.

    irrespective the REAL & full Wright & Ayers storys once aired by Mccain will sink Obama in Nov. anyway

    I’ll blog the stats separately , which I’m emailing to various Directors in team Hillary

    These show in the last 12 weeks Hillary has won all the important E/V primarys (PA ,TX & OH , Hillary in all the National & E/V polls wins decisivly decisive over Obama plus Obama’s negative Wright & ‘bitter’ gafes yet SD’s have gone 73.5% to Obama , with the ‘black heavy) Only an Obamabot treating facts as dispensible would not ‘get it’

  49. “Only an Obamabot treating facts as dispensible would not ‘get it’”

    Bewdy Ron! Bewdy. I’m in the mood for a laugh.

  50. HarryH – Yes, I was watching online – not sure if t is still going though, being very late over there now.

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