Pennsylvania minus six weeks

A new open thread for discussion of the US presidential election. Barack Obama won easily in Wyoming on Saturday, as he always does in caucuses: on Wednesday our time comes a primary in Mississippi. However, by most observers’ reckoning the last contest of interest is that in Pennsylvania on April 22.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,156 comments on “Pennsylvania minus six weeks”

Comments Page 3 of 24
1 2 3 4 … 24

  1. 100

    That’s good to hear. I just did the quiz, got ENTJ (Fieldmarshall), found out i share the same traits as Hillary and Bill Gates and am thoroughly upset by the whole situation.

  2. Socrates @ 96 –
    As an INTJ I have to say that I question the validity of the data Myers Briggs is based on

    This ENTJ shares your skepticism 😉

  3. asanque and Socrates- I hate to tell you this but Hillary and Giuliani are both INTJs. INTJs are often described as self-confident perfectionists who are pragmatic and have expert knowledge in their defined field. They are often lawyers and academics.

  5. asanque at 94: Cool Kos link, Samwoman’s one mother of a mathmonger all right, and I lerve her slogan:

    “HOPE: It’s the new black.”

    But, of course, I’m a hopelessly deranged Kumbyah cultist:)

  6. 102 MF- I am sceptical too especially about the lists of who is in each type (esp as some appear as more than one type!!). But I’ve asked lots of people to do it and look at whether the traits fit them and they’re pretty close. ENTJ’s are often in the military due to their leadership qualities and are often described as heroic.

  10. Diogenes @ 106 – Hmmm. 33 years in the ADF, but, IME, heroes are pests who often get their mates killed without actually achieving anything by their heroics. Even the first heroes failed miserably. OTOH, a sneaky carpenter managed to breech Troy’s unbreakable walls without raising a sweat!

  11. Dio, did the test but the computer refused to rate me. As you could well imagine this caused me a great deal of consternation. The message politely suggested that it would be wise with my “attitude”, if professional help was sought without delay.
    Apparently, I need to get it worked on:)

  13. Diogenes

    Would these persons have enough of their facilities left to know how and who to vote for?

    No doubt someone like Johnny Bomb Bomb will have arranged Humvees to transport these persons to the polls. See how we look after you.

    No doubt about the old seppos, they know how to dumb folk down;
    The Shrub will no doubt be calling them up for their votes later.

    By Julie Steenhuysen

    CHICAGO (Reuters) – Exposure to pesticides, nerve agents and other
    chemicals may explain the chronic, multi-symptom health problems
    experienced by up to one-third of Gulf War veterans, U.S. researchers
    said on Monday.

    They said an analysis of a host of studies offers compelling evidence
    that the fatigue, muscle or joint pain, memory and sleep problems,
    rashes and breathing troubles experienced by these veterans are due to
    chemicals known as acetylcholinesterase inhibitors and
    organophosphates, which includes nerve gas.

    “Convergent evidence now strongly links a class of chemicals —
    acetylcholinesterase inhibitors — to illness in Gulf War veterans,”
    Dr. Beatrice Golomb of the University of California, San Diego, said
    in e-mailed comments.

    http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0711986105

  14. Codger,

    On the chest, bloody going soft I am.

    As Paul keating said, “You must keep your foot on throat of all Libs, so they know their place”.

  17. 108 jen- ENFPs are a textbook description of a Greenie!

    ENFPs are pleasant, easygoing, and usually fun to work with. They come up with great ideas, and are a major asset in brainstorming sessions. Followthrough tends to be a problem, however.

    ENFPs often have strong, if unconvential, convictions on various issues related to their Cosmic View. They usually try to use their social skills and contacts to persuade people gently of the rightness of these views; this sometimes results in their neglecting their nearest and dearest while flitting around trying to save the world.

  18. 117 Diogs –
    spooky huh!
    You got it. Apparently make good politicians too.
    or counsellors. (studied both Freudian and Jungian models of psychotherapy in my therapist days. Now I run a shop- and may go back to nursing.
    Whatever. )
    A unscientific as the whole thing is I am always surprised at it’s uncanny ability to pick up on individual traits of people . But then life ain’t all science , just like politics ain’t all psephology.
    And George Bush is Still an NFI.

  21. No surprise to me either Ferny.
    Now, what about Billbo, Adam, Growler, Finns, GP. Glen?? – come on guys: get your psyches out.

  22. having started out as a Hillary fan, the tactics, the whingeing about Florida and Michigan, the comments about McCain being more experienced than Obama, the talk of “popular vote” v delegates (the thing that counts) and now the media bias, she has put me off. Go Obama I say

  24. Yep….she tends to have that effect on people Andrew. It’s time for a new way of doing politics and Barack (I feel I can call him by his first name now – it’s an ENF thing) is the last chance we’ve got for a generation.

  25. From the cover of Time (2002) to the possibility of doing time (although he’ll probably get a “Scooter” from the next POTUS if he took a rap), is a bloody long way to fall, and there’s a big dose of Greek Tragedy in the sudden demise of Eliot Spitzer.

    There’s also something very bizarre in how he managed to get caught: the original investigation was from the IRS over large cash payments that presumbably got withdrawn from his account, and then they physically followed. It was at first a suspected case of corruption or fraud, but nup, old Eliot was buying supergirls, at superprices, so the sums involved were rather noticeable. (Super Delegates, one presumes, buy Super Girls! LOL)

    Had the guy not thought to buy the most expensive services in the USA, and been a bit more ‘discreet’, this never would have come out, but his opulent indulgence was his undoing, not the pay-for-sex per se.

    Ironic, isn’t it?

  28. At the rislk of being naive (GG -I admit defeat) what does a Super-Prostitute do that the common garden varity doesn’t???

  29. Evening reality check for those who still think Hillary can produce an exploding briefcase from her nether regions (cf South Park) to defeat Obama:

    Total Delegates
    1589 – 1470
    Obama + 119

    Pledged Delegates
    1378 – 1223
    Obama + 155

    Popular Vote
    49.4 – 47.1
    Obama +2.3

    Popular Vote (w/FL)
    48.3 – 47.2
    Obama +1.1

    Nat’l RCP Average
    47.5 – 43.8
    Obama +3.7

    Pennsylvania
    35.8 – 47.5
    Clinton +11.7

    North Carolina
    47.3 – 38.5
    Obama +8.8

    General Election McCain-Obama McCain-Clinton
    National Obama +5.0 Clinton +2.0

    Obama’s got ALL the plusses, except Pennsylvania, which won’t change the mathematical equation.

  30. Where was the suitcase??
    Is that what the super hookers do? – weapons trafficking.
    BTW JV- score please. (as in Myer Briggs).

  31. Jen – The word was the super-pros at the agency involved were advertised as ‘intelligent’. Intelligent – but apparently incapable of working out how to survive without having to resort to prostitution. Hmmm. Maybe that’s the proof needed to debunk IQ testing

  32. So I’m curious as to how people genuinely think this battle will end. Not much else to consider right now, and this could be an interesting people topic to embrace.

    Will it formally end through a formal, humiliating count at the convention? If so, will everyone know who the nominee is beforehand anyway? And if not, where exactly will it end?

    The endgame is formally defined as the point when
    a. a candidate drops out or
    b. a candidate has 2025 delegates, with even CNN calling it for Obama.

    Here’s what I’m going with:

    1. There will be a nominee before the convention. Without doubt. The battle cannot be allowed to last until the convention, it is suicidal, if only for the fact it is going to be held almost three months after the last primary, and just over two before the general. How the hell do you unite the party against a candidate whom few actively loathe in such a short amount of time? Simple answer: you can’t. That’s my reasoning.

    2. Florida and Michigan will get a fresh primary – the ‘mail in’ scheme – from which HRC will gain an advantage of around 200,000 in the popular vote, and a net gain of a few dozen delegates

    3. Pennsylvania will be carried by Clinton on April 22, relatively decisively. This gives her a two week window to try to make something, before Obama sweeps North Carolina and Indiana on May 6, halting any momentum she may have in its tracks,

    4. By the end of May 4 it will be clear that HRC cannot, under any circumstance, win the pledged delegate count, and is unlikely to win the popular vote.

    Now, this is where Florida complicates matters. It is highly unlikely that a new primary would be decided by May 4, given the pure logistical nightmare involved. If not for Florida, I would suggest that unless something massively shifts in the coming weeks, May 5 is the date when the superdelegates put their foot down and jump as one onto the Obama ship.

    To do so before April 22 is just stupid, to do so after would probably be ‘going against the momentum’ considering she is likely to sweep the state. But because of the fact Hillary is likely to win Florida. it makes things a bit more difficult for the SD’s, because the argument can’t be made that ‘all the big states are counted, nothing significant will happen from here on in.’

    But. If the SD’s don’t do jump in at this point, and frankly I don’t think they will, then I think

    5. Dean will announce he is inviting all formally uncommitted superdelegates into a meeting to be held June 10, a week after the last primaries are to be held. There, the superdelegates will speak, argue, and ultimately come out speaking in one voice in favour of one candidate for the good of the party. Failing that, they may instead agree to all publicly state who they are endorsing to end the mess. Unfortunately, that ensures the final count will be something like 2100-1900 either way, and just look bad.

    It will be bitter, it will be divisive, it will leave millions of Democrats pissed off. But it gives the nominee five months to try to heal those wounds, which is better than two after a public embarrassment of a brokered convention,

    So there we go. I’ve done what the pansy arsed media won’t: try to pick a timeline rather then say ‘it’s impossible to predict!’

  33. What’s this test score thing? I’m not sure I’m up for a test. I’m not at my best and I can stand the prospect of failure. Can it be done through continuous assessment rather than a single test? I’m more comfortable with that.

  35. INFJ: Writing, counseling, public service and even politics are areas where INFJs frequently find their niche. – Crappy – i’m a businessman

    Famous INFJs:

    Nathan, prophet of Israel
    Aristophanes
    Chaucer
    Goethe
    Robert Burns, Scottish poet

    U.S. Presidents:
    Martin Van Buren
    James Earl “Jimmy” Carter

    Nathaniel Hawthorne
    Fanny Crosby, (blind) hymnist
    Mother Teresa of Calcutta
    Fred McMurray (My Three Sons)
    Shirley Temple Black, child actor, ambassador
    Martin Luther King, Jr., civil rights leader, martyr
    James Reston, newspaper reporter
    Shirley McClain (Sweet Charity, …)
    Piers Anthony, author (“Xanth” series)
    Michael Landon (Little House on the Prairie)
    Tom Selleck
    John Katz, critic, author
    Paul Stookey (Peter, Paul and Mary)
    U. S. Senator Carol Moseley-Braun (D-IL)
    Billy Crystal
    Garry Trudeau (Doonesbury)
    Nelson Mandela
    Mel Gibson
    Carrie Fisher
    Nicole Kidman
    Jerry Seinfeld
    Jamie Foxx
    Sela Ward
    Mark Harmon
    Gary Dourdan
    Marg Helgaberger
    Evangeline Lilly
    Tori May

  36. No JV.
    this is definitive. and just as conclusive as IQ tests (see GWB rating above moronic for evidence).
    Besides, there’s no such thing as failure – it’s just that some results are more ‘attractive’ than others (see Obi’s, and mine).

  39. 113 Gaffhook- PNAS is a SERIOUS HEAVYWEIGHT scientific journal, about number five in the world. I’d love MayoFeral to comment on that article. I notice it’s just come out. That spells a HUGE problem for the Bush Administration if it tries to ignore it. McCain has persistently pis*ed off the vets by refusing to do anything for their health cause. Sy Hirsch has written a book on it “Against All Enemies- Gulf War Syndrome: The War Between America’s Ailing Veterans and Their Government “.

  40. I’m an ENTP. I think there’s some validity to this stuff despite despising Jung for his mysticism. The description seems to match me. I was impressed to hear that Alexander the Great is an ENTP (he may have been a mass murderer but he was still a pretty impressive dude). Then I read that Celine Dion and Rodney Dangerfield are also ENTPs. I think I’ll go out the back and have a quiet sob then shall I?

  42. Jen – Found it – I’m an ENTJ, whatever that means – I think it means mediocre, but certainly not as interesting as you INFJ’s by the look. Although, I’ve never really aligned myself with Shirley Maclaine!

    GG – Yeah if I’ve done it right you can put in the known polls for upcoming primaries to the Forbes calculator and split the rest of the primaries 55/45 to Clinton and the supers the same Obama still gets to the magic number easily. And that is very generous to Hillary. Haven’t done it for a few days, but his numbers are better now anyway.

  44. 120 Ferny

    ENFJs are the benevolent ‘pedagogues’ of humanity. They have tremendous charisma by which many are drawn into their nurturant tutelage and/or grand schemes. ENFJs know and appreciate people. They are apt to neglect themselves and their own needs for the needs of others. They have thinner psychological boundaries than most, and are at risk for being hurt or even abused by less sensitive people. ENFJs often take on more of the burdens of others than they can bear.

    Abraham Lincoln was supposed to be ENFJ.

    Ferny, I’m guessing that’s not far off.

  45. Best ENFJ career choices…

    Teacher – ok I do some uni teaching
    Author – yep I do that

    So far…so good…

    Social worker – pffft
    Counsellor – PFFFT!
    Politician – AHAHAHAHAHA – oh gawd I almost blew it outta my nose

    Hey – there’s no lawyer here! C’mon, I can’t be the only ENFJ lawyer on earth.

    Wait a minute – the Nad Man is a lawyer. Me and the Nad Man – personality twins.

  47. Free Nelson Mandela … Still remember that song ringing in my ears as if it was yesterday.

    Meanwhile back at the ranch, Free O’bambi …. Another cold shower for O’bambi

    Black Voters Can’t Put Obama in the White House

    New America Media, News Analysis, Earl Ofari Hutchinson , Posted: Mar 11, 2008

    Editor’s Note: The last two elections show that the black vote goes largely to the Democratic nominee for president, but it doesn’t help win the presidency. If he wins the Democratic nomination, Barack Obama will have to court white, male voters to beat out John McCain. Earl Ofari Hutchinson is NAM Political Affairs editor. His new book is The Ethnic Presidency: How Race Decides the Race to the White House (Middle Passage Press, February 2008).

    African American voters will help ensure that Democratic presidential contender Barack Obama keeps his slight edge over Hillary Clinton, for now. But they will not help him beat John McCain if he eventually gets the Democratic nomination. Yet it’s still a virtual article of political faith that a strong, united, and crusading black vote can tip the scale for a Democratic presidential candidate. This is a myth and it’s risky business for Obama and the Democrats to believe that.

    http://news.ncmonline.com/news/view_article.html?article_id=7cad57d478821ffac3db0efd9c9ef6f8

  50. Finns – isn’t it the point that Obama doesn’t have just the black vote?
    otherwise he wouldn’t be no 1.
    Which he still is as far as I can tell from all the figures.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 3 of 24
1 2 3 4 … 24