Pennsylvania minus six weeks

A new open thread for discussion of the US presidential election. Barack Obama won easily in Wyoming on Saturday, as he always does in caucuses: on Wednesday our time comes a primary in Mississippi. However, by most observers’ reckoning the last contest of interest is that in Pennsylvania on April 22.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,156 comments on “Pennsylvania minus six weeks”

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  1. Da noive uh dah goil !!

    “It’s really a rare occurrence, maybe the first time in history, that the person who’s running No. 2 would offer the person who’s running No. 1 the No. 2 position.”
    — Former Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD), on Meet the Press.
    http://politicalwire.com/archives/2008/03/10/quote_of_the_day.html

    But The Kid didn’t buy the sucker play.

    And yes, Dio, The Kid’s just another pollie but I also prefer him to the other 2 Beltway-soiled warmongers.

    Good point, jen, it’s perfectly OK for US Shock-and-Awe merchants to “pink mist” Iraqi families, but whatever you do, don’t get sprung bangin’ elite troopers from an upmarket knock shop.
    Clean livin’ Americans are touchy about that kind of thing!
    One supposes that cheating political spouses will be compelled in future to go pre-emptively “hands-on” before any dalliance or tryst-type situation in order to protect themselves against entrapment by FBI-wired call-persons.

    “Pardon me, ma’am/sir, if we are to proceed any furthur in our preliminary negotiations, I’m afraid I’m going to have to frisk you first…..”

    Perfectly reasonable and legally defensible in a country where citizens are constanly exhorted by government to be especially alert lest they be dealing with terrorists.

  2. Sorry been out all morning trying to earn a living. Did Mr. Spitzer kill someone or something similar? or did he simply bonk some chick. Wish i have his money.

    #15 – [It seems Mr Spitzer has some hypocricy issues to sort out too!] Gee KR, what a great insight calling a politician “a hypocrite”. Is there any kind? This includes your Golden Boy Obi.

  3. asanque @ 49 – There is now increasing disquiet from Democrats running for Congress who are having trouble fundraising, as all the money is being drawn into the Obama-Clinton vortex.

  4. “See, free nations are peaceful nations. Free nations don’t attack each other. free nations don’t develop weapons of mass destruction.”
    The Imbecile, Milwaukee, Wisconsin; October 3, 2003.

    HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHA!!! So the US, France, England, Israel etc are going to give the nukes and chemical and biological weapons back!! Or maybe they’re not free countries!!

    317 days to go…

  5. EC @ 17

    ‘RB: “actual horizontal folk-dancing….”, but Robert, the NY Gov and special friend were just measuring heights. Honest!’

    The old birthday suit limbo dance…

  6. “It’s really a rare occurrence, maybe the first time in history, that the person who’s running No. 2 would offer the person who’s running No. 1 the No. 2 position.”

    That’s because Hillary is trying to give the impression that she is No. 1 in order to build much-needed momentum. It’s also yet another indication of how desperate the Clinton camp has become…

  7. Who would have ever thought it?
    “Exhaustive review finds no link between Saddam and al Qaida”
    http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/29959.html

    Exhaustive searches also failed to unearth any WMDs either.

    But our former El Rodente assured us and our parliament that;
    “…..they’ve even got human shredding machines, Mr. Speaker”,
    so one is confident they’ll be found sometime soon.

    Geez, won’t Hoodwink Henderson, Planet Janet, The Divine Ms M, Shill Shanahan and Shonky Sheridan have a field day when those machines turn up.

    Indeed codger at 58, the bastard’s reckon that if they can control the national attitudes to sexuality, then citizens are much easier to contol too. How could anyone forget the high intensity umbrage of the Sep MSM and the National Wowser Trust after the Janet Jackson’s “wardrobe malfunction” at the Super Bowl a couple of years back.
    Unbe-freaking-lievable! A nipple ringed right boob and the bastards went ballistic.
    There really are a whole lotta emotionally plagued sick puppies in the land of the unfree.

    Anyway codger, people have already begun whispering around here, better be careful or they’ll think you’re some kind of craven animal:)

    And make mine a miao of assent with noocat.

  8. With the help of the US Iraq will soon be a relaxed and comfortable Democracy. With abounding freedoms.
    No future threat there.

  9. Well regardless of who does win the Democrat party nomination, here is some good news for either, and rather bad news for the rest of the US and indirectly the western world. John Quigan’s blog has a thread on the US economy, which is already being described as in recession. So far 85000 people have lost their jobs. In addition, GM plans to make redundant 74,000 staff. See:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/03/10/cnfed110.xml

    It looks like teh mortgafge crisis has spread beyond sub-prime loans. This thread describes the default of a major US mortgage fund.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/03/07/cncarlyle107.xml

    So it looks like 20% of all US sub prime mortgages may default, unemployment is increasing, and the debt is bigger than the Iraq war death toll. Lest you think this doesn’t matter here, falling value of financial institutions will affect the superannuation and retirement incomes of many older Australians too. I do not suggest it will cause a recession in Oz, but you can safely bet on large cuts in the Australian budget this year.

  10. 61 ec- Saddam and Osama hated each other for several reasons, which seems to have escaped US Intelligence (an oxymoron if ever there was one). Osama offered to mobilise forces to evict and punish Iraq when it invaded Kuwait. Osama hated the secular, corrupt Iraqi government of Saddam.

  11. Democrat strategist Joe Trippi says:

    “Well, I don’t see the Clintons walking off the field if Hillary has the popular-vote lead, which is a realistic possibility. And I don’t see Obama walking away from a lead among pledged delegates. That is why I think it is likely that, however this is resolved, the two of them run on a ticket together, and here is why: In 1976 and 1980 we had fights that went to the convention. In 1976 it was Ford and Reagan fighting it out and Jimmy Carter became president. In 1980 it was Ted Kennedy and Jimmy Carter and Reagan became president. History says you don’t want to campaign into the convention, even if McCain will be carrying George Bush’s baggage. So I think there will be tremendous pressure on the eventual nominee to pull the party together by picking the other.”

    http://nymag.com/daily/intel/2008/03/john_heilemann_and_joe_trippi.html

    Trippi rates Obama’s chances of clinching the nomination at 70%

  12. Ferny Grover @ 48 –
    Is being a neo-con a sin yet?

    The Big Guy gives a pretty good impression of being one in many parts of the Good Book, particularly Exodus.

    .

    The Finnigans @ 52 –

    Did Mr. Spitzer kill someone or something similar? or did he simply bonk some chick. Wish i have his money.

    If you’re a chick I know how you can get some it. How much depends on how hard you’re willing to “work” 😉

  13. 66 Diogenes

    Yes, that is one of the reasons I marched against that (unusually) stupid war before it started. The supporting bin Laden claims were an obvious lie.

    As for US military intelligence, I think the fact that in the 2003 invasion they allegedly got to Baghdad (population six million) with a total of six interpreters who could speak Arabic says it all really.

  14. 67 Ferny- Trippi is tripping if he thinks Clinton has a chance of winning the popular vote. She’s 600,000 behind, minimum.

  15. Did I say the press has been biased against Hillary?

    [According to the nonpartisan Center for Media and Public Affairs, O’Reilly might actually be right: from December to mid-February, 83 percent of network-news coverage of Obama was positive. For Clinton, the number was 53 percent. After Super Tuesday, the study says, even as Clinton supporters demanded more-balanced coverage, Obama’s proportion of good press dropped only to 67 percent, while Clinton’s remained at about 50 percent]

    http://www.newsweek.com/id/120068/output/print

  16. Dio – I gather he’s factoring in a major thumping of Obama in PA. He may also be factoring in FLA and MI perhaps. Still a long shot, but as I keep saying, this is not all about the math, but the politics.

  17. Ferny, don’t know what came over me, bein’ calumnous and detracting those neocon shills so. Got a notion The Devil made me do it. Fixin’ to get myself a good exorcist though, just as soon as the fun gets done:)

    Dio at clicketty-click: Make than a ten-four roger, good buddy.
    Over and out.

  18. jen- That was a generalisation. I do like a few politicians but I dislike them as a species. It’s the same with journalists. I’m sure I could make an exception in your case. 😀

  19. Cheers Diogs.
    Have to say that having been involved with the Greens, and been a candidate who has had a bit to do with Bob B i do think he is a man of integrity and a good pollie. (And no, he is not the Messiah!!).

  20. #78 – of course jen, how can Hillary competes with St. Obambi? against Santa Obambi? Yes Virginia, You dont shoot Santa do you?

  21. The point re such quantitative reviews of press as well is that Obama has won about 25 contests to Clinton’s about half of this. Obviously, given this count, he will have more ‘positive’ coverage than her. Just as both will have more positive coverage than say, Richardson.

  22. Pancho- Your ability to shoot down these lame duck pro-Billary arguments so quickly is quite frightening. Are you a political staffer?

  23. Jen, you’ll be pleased to know that over on the Brisbane election blog I’ve been talking up the Greens and showering them with blessings for the weekend fray

  24. GG @ 24: if the only “serious questions” that are being asked are by barely-blog-worthy regurgitations of every anti-Obama diatribe published for the last 6 months, printed in a right-wing barracking publication, then the Obama campaign can rest rather easier than I expected.

    However, anyone who can use that interweb thing by now knows that these kind of semi-professional (I’m being generous) hatchet jobs are necessary because those (spit, sneer) ‘professional’ journalists are in the thrall of the Obama-Jonestown cult of personality, so would never write one bad thing about him. Those same journos who have conspired to deny the US the President who is the only true voice of the people (and friend of the tin-foil industry): Ron Paul.

    Socrates @ 65: hear, hear. Political junkies write a whole lot about Iraq, and wrongly assume that everyone else cares as much. Without trivialising the suffering in Iraq, in US psephological terms a hard-headed look is needed at where it lies in the priorities of the American voter. The far-more-disastrous (for the US at least) Vietnam war never decided a single Presidential race against a pro-war candidate. Maybe, at a stretch, 5 million Americans have been directly touched by Iraq (through personal involvement or that of a member of their family). Well over 100 million will be directly effected by a recession.

    The domestic economy is the main game, and mercifully for the Democrats, it should be their long suit. More talk about Iraq just leads naturally to more talk about ‘Islamists’, the war on terror, national security etc: all areas where the Republicans in general and McCain in particular have a natural advantage in the public’s mind; the f***-up that Iraq has been, has only partially squandered that advantage. I still have little doubt who would handily win the straight-up pollster’s question, ‘Which party’s Presidential candidate is better qualified to lead the US in a war?’

  25. Thanks you you forebearance Bludgers, without furthur ado, please allow me to present, Part2.

    Mon Mar. 10: Mr. Rall is a seriously twisted cartoonist.
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tedrall;_ylt=AqPzM1jNG8cK9J5PdPZ6OnFW_b4F

    Mon. Mar.10: And The Winner Is……..
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/bensargent;_ylt=Aq.ir8Rs_CcfjNHmnTxy0RZN_b4F

    Tues Mar 11: Just prior to the US Economy imploding, Uncle Sammy Jack Bauers the awful truth from a suspected citizen terrorist.
    http://news.yahoo.com/edcartoons/tomtoles;_ylt=AiBTv9B6HHCXqYV5xXPZw9pT_b4F

    (Voiceover by Walter Winchell, narrator from the 1959 b&w tv series The Untouchables)……..

    “Bludger Toon Time is a joint EC-WB Prodution”

    (Couldn’t source anything from The Untouchables, but here’s an idea of his voice, so you can get the drift. Jerry Lewis was having a beautiful lend of poor old super-straight macho Mr. Waldo)
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nV400lNfZnM

    (ends)

  26. asanque

    Have you ever taken a Myer-Briggs personality test? It’s a Jungian test of how you interact with and view the world. There are 16 personality types. I am willing to bet you are the same type as me (INTP). It’s a fairly uncommon type. We’re pensive, analytical types and often though of as aloof. It’s also called the “Architect” personality. Lots of philosophers and scientists are INTPs, such as Socrates, Descartes, Pascal, Isaac Newton, Einstein, Jung and William Harvey.

    The following U.S. Presidents were INTPs
    James Madison
    John Quincy Adams
    John Tyler
    Dwight D. Eisenhower
    Gerald Ford
    On the whole, INTPs make pretty crappy politicians as they hate it when their principles are compromised and introverted.
    http://www.humanmetrics.com/cgi-win/JTypes2.asp

  27. More maths – if basic maths offends you (Hillaryland) look away now.

    http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/3/9/184226/0219

    This sums it up:
    [‘So what do all these numbers mean? Essentially, they point out that the best hope for Hillary Clinton to win the election is for Barack Obama to be struck by a meteorite, so long as it kills him and does not grant him any (more?) superhuman powers. ‘]

  28. 93 – Diogenes

    I may have taken one a long time ago, happy to take another one when I have more time and will let you know the results 🙂

    I never want to be a politician although many of my friends are involved in that area.

  29. Diogenes

    As an INTJ I have to say that I question the validity of the data Myers Briggs is based on 🙂

    Anway, what type of personality is Bush? (Apologies in advance to the roughly 1/16th of the population who are about to be bitterly resentful.) My guess would be:

    Intollerant
    Stupid
    Texan
    Phoney

  30. You don’t need Myers Briggs to know that Clinton can’t catch Obama in a race based on PR. The maths just won’t work from here. She is obviously waiting, John wHoward like, for something to turn up. In the States anything could happen and often does. Remember 1968!

  31. Kevin R at 92: Accepted, thanks. Caught it all right but had no idea that the Roo in Austin post was in response.
    Anyway, as they say over there, “Ah’m so envious” at the exchange rate the AUD is now pulling. It was somewhere in the 60 cent range in April/May 2003.
    Not that The Empire is now in decline or anything like that. As The Imbecile might read from his prompter sheet, “The present downturn is nothing another Economic Stimulus Package won’t fix in a jiffy, so git back to those malls and start buyin’ stuff!”.

  32. Jung was a quack, and Siggy a dangerous, coke addled twit who should have been locked up for the way he treated his patients, especially ‘Dora.’

    Their respective theories might tell us quite a bit about them, but, IMunHO, not much about anyone else.

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