Pennsylvania minus six weeks

A new open thread for discussion of the US presidential election. Barack Obama won easily in Wyoming on Saturday, as he always does in caucuses: on Wednesday our time comes a primary in Mississippi. However, by most observers’ reckoning the last contest of interest is that in Pennsylvania on April 22.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,156 comments on “Pennsylvania minus six weeks”

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  1. Oh stop it you lot, it’s a load of dogpoo. And can be dangerous – a school where my daughters went administered it to impressionable young people of 14 or so and in the case of one daughter it led her to believe that she was doomed to be an introvert forever and therefore never allowed to have a good time and go to parties. It took her a few years to get over that silly diagnosis. Not that any of you lot are impressionable young people I realise, but still…

  2. And for the uninitiated:

    E = Extrovert – I = Introvert

    N = (I)ntuitive – S = Sensing

    F = Feeling – T = Thinking

    P = Perception – J = Judgment

  5. apres –
    there is no way that 14 year olds should have this test done. The whole idea is that you have a personality type that is developed. i’d be speaking severely to the school that administered it.

  6. What – I’m supposed to be ‘Field Marshall’, along with Hillary Clinton and Margaret Thatcher????. No No No no … that can’t be true – I mean I’ve got friends! I’ll do the test again tomorrow after a few drinks. when I’ve loosened up a bit.
    ENTJ – ‘Rational FieldMarshalls’
    “Hillary Clinton, Napoleon, Margret Thatcher, Carl Sagan, Bill Gates, Golda Meir, Edward Teller, George Benard Shaw, and General George C. Marshall are examples of Rational Fieldmarshals.”

    Jen 149 – Thanks for that – it eases the cruel truth as to who I’m in with a little.
    I reckon Adam would be an ENTJ Field Marshall too – has he done it?

    The hardest question was number 31 where you have to make a choice between justice and mercy. Very difficult. The proper answer is that mercy is a critically important adjunct to the delivery of justice, isn’t it?
    Except in the state of Texas under GWB as Governor, that is.

    GG – Just did the calculator and Obama would win by 50 delegates, even being so generous to Hillary with those remaining.

  12. codger –
    I like that, but I was going for the more colloquial ‘No F@king Idea.’
    However I think your’s has a more sophisticated ring to it.

  13. 158 Thanks Ferny G – I felt compelled, given the choice, to choose mercy. I’d (loudly) suggest the same option if ever facing a firing squad or lethal injection!

  14. Ok, so after reading a whole lot of rambling, I did the test.

    I am ISTJ.

    Can somebody tell me what this means – in simple terms – and whether this means I am going to die a slow and painful death?

  16. Ferny -it’s simple . Think Van Nguin. Think Justice, think Mercy.
    Think what a disgusting example JWH set by going to the cricket when the boy was hanged.
    Think why it’s time we set the world in order and got rid of the neocons, who justify everything using Justice /The Law (which they write to suit themselves)…
    rant nearly over.

  17. Jen, touche
    Will Obi byte the ad offer?…Anyone? Hey EC bags you & I ‘do’ the scriptedything…line one line two oh #2 err #1 …you mean Plus1…oh shit I get it …The Zimmer…

  18. Max –
    it means you have the traits of an Introverted, sensate,thinking and judgement (as in rational) human being. ie: you are a pussy cat.

  20. Jen’s at it again. Bleeding hearts. Poor soul.

    Van Nguin broke the law. The Government at the time pleaded for clemency but in the end has no sovereign influence over foreign governments.

  21. 170
    Oh you’re back.
    on that note I need to depart.
    But before I do, let me just wish upon you that none of your children end up with a drug problem.
    Actually, let me wish that you never breed.

  22. Codger,

    I am delghted we are on the same planet.

    So we are exactly the same apart from

    I prick pomposity.
    You pomp Pricks

  24. Light crude

    (OK, I know what you’re all thinking)

    Light crude, just a smidge under US$108/b

    nuthin’ light about that

  27. Jen @ 166 – Rant is well deserved.

    Personally I have a broader, more aspirational definition of justice than the ‘positivist’ approach of those who salivate over the swift and severe application of the law – anyone’s law – even of those who inflict the death penalty.

  28. 113
    Exposure to pesticides, nerve agents and other
    chemicals may explain the chronic, multi-symptom health problems
    experienced by up to one-third of Gulf War veterans, U.S. researchers
    said on Monday.

    Diogenes @ 139 –

    113 Gaffhook- PNAS is a SERIOUS HEAVYWEIGHT scientific journal, about number five in the world. I’d love MayoFeral to comment on that article.

    I doubt that Iraqi nerve gasses had anything to do with it. But the squaddies being over liberal with the pesticides doesn’t surprise me. There are lots of nasty creapy-crawlies in the desert and armies often live in a semi permanent fog of insecticides. The only difference between Sarin and most of the insecticides at the local hardware is their relative concentration.

    Nor would I be surprised if at least some of the problem is the vaccinations given to troops before deployment and the liberal use of both sanctioned and illicit chemicals and drugs while in theatre.

    The U.S. military particularly likes to experiment with anything that may give GIs an edge. For example, some influential members of both their government and military are advocating dosing the troops with D-Cycloserine, an antibiotic used to treat TB, which appears to interfere with the transfer of memories from short to long term storage. There is some evidence that this may significantly reduce the incidence of PTSD which is becoming the Afghan/Iraq wars’ signature legacy.

    But I believe these war syndromes often have at least as much to do with the mind as physical affects from nerve toxins, endemic disease or whatever. I’ve experienced psychological affects from chronic chemical exposure (mainly solvents) and they can be far harder to deal with than the physical affects.

  31. BTW it’s “Van Nguyen”
    As in:
    There was a young man from Footscray
    Who didn’t knew quite what to say
    His love for to win
    Her name was Nguyen
    He’s still tongue-tied and single today

  32. Engrossing opinion piece on Obama here in Prospect a fortnight ago by Trevor Phillips – Labour MP.
    http://www.prospect-magazine.co.uk/article_details.php?id=10043

    Responses:
    http://blog.prospectblogs.com/2008/02/27/trevor-phillips-why-im-not-backing-obama/

    Phillips’ response in The Independent comes in for plenty more here:
    http://blog.prospectblogs.com/2008/02/29/trevor-phillips-responds/

    My two bobs worth: Most of Phillips’ detractors have missed the issue completely. Black voters everywhere – in numbers rarely seen before, have rallied to back Obama in his ascendancy. Their reasons are manifold but surely Obama’s colour is at the heart of their actions.
    Any view of the future by Obama’s black supporters is through the prism of race and how the interests of black America can be advanced with Obama being elected President.
    An endeavour I wholeheartedly support, but Phillips is simply making the case that this expectation should, not only not be taken for granted, but be even less likely.

  33. Max & Jen- And we Obama supporters are also delusional don’t forget. Although now there is clear mathematical proof that he’s going to be it, perhaps that one might be dropped.

  34. JV – Rational Fieldmarshals

    Better than being an irrational one. Norman Swartzkopf being a classic example. Absolute pig of a ‘man’

  37. Just love ’em old man river, yep, they just rollin’ along

    Mississippi – ARG Poll Mar. 10 – Hillary 38% Obambi 54%

    Mississippi – Insider Advantage Poll Mar. 9 – Hillary 54% Obambi – 37%

  38. 178 MF- Have you got a reference for the cycloserine article? I see quite a lot of PTSD (from burns).

    BTW The publicity that study is getting is going to force McCain to make a statement on it. I know his support is fragile amongst the Vets and he could end up getting Swiftboated if he doesn’t support them.

  39. Bryce, I don’t shrink from seeing Obama’s “blackness” as a reason for being enthusiastic about his candidacy. There’s been a lot of rubbish written about the competing symbolism of the 1st female POTUS versus the first black POTUS.
    It reminds me of some of the early 19th Century suffragettes who argued for votes for women by pointing out how outrageous it was that “greasy Negroes” had the vote while respectable white women in Boston had not. On the other side of the ledger there is the extreme misogyny of much of black male culture.
    So which oppression do you pick? Is sexism or racism nastier?
    For me that’s a pointless approach – though it’s significant that black women in the US appear to be voting for Obama. They seem to be pretty clear about which form of oppression is more of a burden to them.
    For me the thing that links it all together is the way in which oppression links in to the fundamental problem of US society – a problem which affects blacks and whites, men and women. The absence of a decent trade union movement, of a welfare state, of a social democratic political tradition…all this has many causes, but one of them is the legacy of slavery. Bob Dylan sang about the way in which the “poor white” was used and abused by racism. The beauty of that song was that he didn’t just say “racism is bad”, he pointed out that racism hurts the racists (or at least the “poor” racists).
    Ever since Jefferson penned his glorious lines about equality in between bonking his slave mistress, “race” has been the beggar at the feast of American democracy.
    The election of a black president would be a more powerful symbol than anything I could imagine – a major step in the resolution of that problem at the heart of American democracy. The election of a woman would, though in many ways also symbolic, would (I believe) not address the essential misogyny of American culture in the same way. Nor would it address a strategic problem. There are no regions of the US where the poor accept their lot because they hate women. There is no connection that I’m aware of between rates of unionisation and sexism. But every time anyone has tried to organise workers in the south they have come up against the diversion of racism.

  40. Democracy@Work from 185

    The situation with Edwards delegates is this.

    1. There are, give or take, 26 of them, hardcore Edwards supporters to the end. They will be attending the convention.

    2. Each delegates vote counts equally. Those supporting Edwards do not count any less.

    Now, for more detail,

    3. A delegate is under no legal obligation to vote for whom they are pledged for. Given the circumstances, if this nomination battle went all the way to the convention, common sense would dictate that rather than waste their vote on Edwards, they would vote for one of the two candidates who can, you know, win.

    4. Edwards may choose to endorse somebody and ask his delegates to vote for that person. Some of his delegates may feel morally obliged to do just that. However, and this can’t be stressed enough, they are under no obligation to do so.

    To that extent of course, a Clinton pledged delegate can switch to vote for Obama if they feel like it. But it is unlikely, because becoming an elected pledged delegate is usually a reward for being a massive devotee to that particular campaign – ie, you put a lot of time and effort into it. If you spend hours and days campaigning for a candidate, you are highly unlikely to change your mind. As such, they are highly unlikely to swap votes.

    Hope that answers your question. In short: each delegate gets one vote, they can vote for whoever they want to, and a candidate needs 2025 votes.

  42. Finnigans #187 Lay off the Jamiesons me old mate. You have “ole man river” running the wrong way, debauching into the frozen planes of Canada rather than the Gulf. The Insider Advantage poll has OBAMA at 54% and Clinton at 37%, not vice versa.

  44. 147 – The Finnigans

    I am fairly sure that Obama has more of the white male vote then Hillary overall.
    Can anyone confirm/deny?

  47. I can’t give you a link Asanque (it’s too late and I’m overdue for a beauty sleep) but I have read a number of articles that have stressed Obama’s success amongst white males. He may not have won white males in Ohio (a deeply held ambition of some Republican congressmen – nudge, nudge, wink, wink) but he did in places like South Carolina – southern states! White females (or at least older white females) have voted for Hillary.
    So Hillary has the white bread grannies and Obama has everyone else. That proves he is unelectable as American democracy is based on WHO BAKES THE APPLE PIE. I shall now retire. Caps lock is a sign of either terminal madness or fatigue and I am concerned to demonstrate the latter.

  48. Thanks Robert.

    Just a quick final update as well.

    Obama is unbackable favourite in Mississippi. But that’s not a large key state that voted for Hillary, so I guess the pledged delegates and popular vote won’t matter.

  49. Aren’t noms de guerre to hide identities? Thanks to Messrs Myers and Briggs we may not know who you are but we now know (!) what you are: trolls are unmasked.

    OK, I’m an ISTJ.

  50. Do you really think these “types” can be right, Megan? I’m not sure how I feel about being encapsulated in four letters. But I do like being classed as a ‘healer’ in the guidebook….

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