Newspoll and ACNielsen state by state

Newspoll’s state-by-state breakdowns are looking even noisier following the long-awaited narrowing, with Labor up in South Australia, down in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, and through the floor in Western Australia. The ACNielsen poll has the swings at 7.7 per cent nationally (compared with 4.8 per cent in Newspoll), 8.1 per cent in NSW (4.2 per cent), 8.4 per cent in Victoria (4.0 per cent), 9.9 per cent in Queensland (9.1 per cent), 10.4 per cent in South Australia (11.4 per cent) and 3.1 per cent in Western Australia (-0.6 per cent). ACNielsen was conducted from a sample of 2071 voters from Monday to Wednesday, Newspoll’s from 2615 voters from Tuesday to Thursday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

784 comments on “Newspoll and ACNielsen state by state”

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  1. Does it say something about internal polling if the Libs are out in force in Berowra?

    Dave55, that was the one consoling thought I had to hang onto: “They MUST be worried”.

    The Lib HTVers were bloody everywhere! Outside the gates (actually 3 sets of gates, not 2), along the walkway, loitering near the kids toilets (bit suss that), and outside the school hall where the voting was taking place.

    There must have been about 25 of them altogether, complete with “Phillip Ruddock” baseball hats, little fold-up canvas chairs, Reebok and Nike’d to the hilt in their Country Road smart/casual get out, plus the obligatory dopey-looking Labrador too stupid to get out of the rain.

    I was only able to get out one loud snarky comment about rodents dying horrible deaths before my wife shushed me up and told me she was leaving me if I kept it up.

  3. Just been and voted for the Ruddster!
    At Cambewarra (small Lib stronghold village near Nowra) Went in the back entrance through the bush,(out the back door lol) there were a couple of Libs wearing Jo Gash t-shirts (no mention of Ratty) 1 green and 2 alp all standing together and quite frienldy to one and other.
    I took the ALP and Green leaflets but said to the Libs …Hey have ya got one of those Muslem ones telling me how to vote labour! Well we all had a good giggle ,Libs included, they were good sports I must admit.
    But as I walked off I heard one Lib say “thats the problem, there’s been a lot of that” So maybe the Lindsay debarcle will have a little effect after all!

  4. As a UK observer, may I say that the Australian Alternative Vote system is just about the fairest electoral system in the world – only wish we had it here too!
    I wish Labor well today -though as a former Labour parliamentary candidate in Britain I trust you have avoided the mistake we made back in 1994 of making a Tory – Tony Blair – our leader.Blair was more right wing than any postwar Tory leaders bar the Anti Christ Thatcher and Major- as a result have not voted Labour at Uk General Election since 1992.

  5. Oh what a beautiful day.

    The last day of Howardism.

    The birds will sing again tomorrow.

    As an entree i will have Maxine please.

    Just to really put Howardism in the dustbin of history.

    Oh what a beautiful day.

  6. Been reading the site for weeks, hooked, productivity at work very low. Off to vote in Lindsay Tanner’s seat, the head sees yes, the heart is 50/50 at the moment.
    Please make it a good night! If the Vics can swing a few seats ALP’s way, then I think we can all relax and enjoy the night.

  9. Report from Higgins…

    Very subdued, not many people there at all. Bunting was half LNP wall-to-wall stuff, the other half was Kev’s New Leadership stuff.

    All the HTV guys were standing there like vultures. I took Labor and Greens HTV, and politely declined the Lib one. The Lib guy was an older gentleman, and I could tell he was a bit deflated.

    Anyhoo, I’ve exercised my civic duty. May the force be in swing! 🙂

  11. No knowledge of Fisher, I live on the Gold Coast, we are quietly confident of knocking off May in McPherson tough. Strong Labor contender in Eddie Saroff, well known through his GCCC aldermanship, well liked and respected here on the coast.
    A big ask at 14% but serfchoices here bigger than most due to the hospitality and tourism workforce.

  13. Turnbull still threatening to contest result if Newhouse wins.
    Good.
    Will give Wentworth constituents time to digest the information that good old Mal has shares in the company he awarded $10 million for the pie-in-the-sky electrical rain-making jolt.

  14. Marty, interesting report from The ACT. I do so hope that Kerrie Tucker wins the Senate seat. The Howard Government has interfered with so many social justice pieces of legislation that the ACT government has tried to implement. The people of the ACT have gradually realised that they have the power to remove the Howard Government’s disastrous control of the Senate in one fell swoop tonight. Kerrie Tucker would be a wonderful asset as an ACT Senator.

  16. Yep, Sportingbet has Labor continuing to tighten – down to Labor $1.30 from $1.33 earlier in the day…

    Betfair is also down from $1.36 to $1.31.

  17. Just voted in the People’s Republic of Northcote, in Marn Ferguson’s seat of Batman. Quite long queues, lots of pictures of Kevin and Greens posters around Northcote Town Hall – no surprise there.

    Everyone was very freindly and polite. It’s amazing how many people take a HTV from everyone. It certainly makes it hard to see how the votes are going to go. I didn’t take any HTVs…never do.

    There was a two-year-old kid screaming his head off because his parents went past a sausage sizzle without stopping. A glorious sunny day in Melbourne, lots of traffic and lots of people shopping and just wandering in the streets.

    But I wished I lived in a marginal…

  20. Tomorrow we will be faced with:

    Prime Minister of Australia: Kevin Rudd

    Leader of the Opposition: Peter Costello

    Can’t wait!!!!!!!!!!!

  23. I love this site–just like all those others wanting a change. I do acknowledge some of the more cogent responders from the–soon to be–opposition benches.

    Just voted in Broadbeach (Gold Coast-Moncrieff). Our Stan the Man doesn’t really have a hope, but he’ll do well. Exchange with Lib HTV’r:
    LHTV: How to votecard for the sitting member? (Steven Ciobo)
    ME: Nah, he’s been doing too much sitting.
    LHTV: Remember, don’t risk the economy with Labor.
    ME: Mate, I live in a society, not an economy.
    LHTV: Silence

    The lady in front of me took a few HTV pamphlets, then ditched them all and kept the Labor one. It’s the small things that keep me going as I’m back at work(Apartment building in the middle of Schoolies) and loving the omens for tonight.

  24. Antonio @ 542
    “It’s amazing how many people take a HTV from everyone. It certainly makes it hard to see how the votes are going to go.”

    I suspect that Martin Ferguson won’t be sweating over his seat. 😀

  25. I think it is a response to the BoP in the senate issue. In canberra and I suspect in Darwin we are very aware that our senate votes have immediate impact and we use them accordingly.

  26. 503 Bushfire Bill. My wife said almost exactly the same thing. At least she votes the right way.
    Long queues at Putney booth in Bennelong and Maxine’s crew looking relaxed and comfortable.

  27. Actually i really suggest people do not take it out on Volunteers. They are there to hand out cards and many are just doing favours for friends and they run the full gammut of people, personal qualities never relate much to voting pref’

    I had a friend who works for the greens rope us in as an awed favour and it is really an awful job having to deal with every little idiot thinking they are soo witty and clever. It reminded my wife of being a bartender where every drunk yob thinks they are soo clever.

    Its a necessary part of the process and many people are not even closely linked to the party or its policies and they are people like everyone else. Take your frustrations in the booth not on the people.

    This is especially the case where you often get elderly people handing out for libs and nats who are good people but socially conservative or part of a family tradition of support etc.

  32. BV @ 342 – pls update us. Turnbull says Newhouse has “provided no evidence that he is eligible to vote” I know Malcolm thinks he sits to the right hand of God, but last time I looked, he wasn’t a judge (although he might try to persuade someone to appoint him as one on Monday)

  34. Voted about an hour ago – took a HTV from Greens and Labor, wife took one also fro the Libs (to be courteous) went to give them back and no Lib in sight, nobody giving out HTV’s and only the box of HTV’s on the ground.

    Nicola Roxon was there looking resplendant. I think she feels pretty relaxed about her own particular outcome 🙂

  36. Booth report from Pearce.

    Went to Herne Hill Primary School to vote. only ALP, Libs and Green HTV. less than half a dozen posters for JUdi Moylan, no LIberal bunting, no Ratty. 3 Ballons on a tree, one burst while there. lots of posters of Kevin Rudd, Candate and other ALP stuff.

  37. Just hearing news from Brand from a friend who voted there. It looked good for the ALP supposedly. People saying they’d not voted Labor before (elderly etc.). Of course take that with a grain of salt.

  41. Paladin @ 414, why don’t you grab a couple of people and head back to the polling booth for the rest of the day. My partner and I encountered the same thing in 2004 and, although we’re not members of the ALP, we ended up taking shifts handing out ALP material for most of the day.

  43. Whoa!!! Getting up the guts to have my vote here in sunny and safe Bradfield. I can’t stand it! Will I make it through the line without punching on with a boatie wearing, smug smiling Lib volunteer? Voting Kerry Nettle in the senate and Labor in the Lower….am I the only one? Such a lonely road. Go Kev!!

  47. In the interests of balance… I must say, it was so satisfying to walk past a bunch of people, take a Lib pamphlet and straight out refuse the ‘your rights at work’ one. Unlike many, I was polite about it (no thank you) which I thought was an achievement on its own.

    One good thing about Labor winning would be that theoretically that slogan will never be used again. The Liberal ‘scare campaign’ is small potatoes compared to the one the unions ran.

    Of course, none of it matters now – my intention is not to start a debate, more trying to neutralise the 95-5 Labor-Liberal supporter ratio here. It was worth a shot.

    I also voted for Mr Xenophon in the Senate, in case anybody cares.

    This calm before the storm is boring me, pity there’s no cricket on. Bring on the count.

  49. Anyone here been heckling the rodent morning walk around the Harbour – I head the melbourne ‘Pink ladies’ flew up and were there today. Should make for some fluffy pieces in tonights TV reporting. Any sign of the Chaser boys?

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