Newspoll and ACNielsen state by state

Newspoll’s state-by-state breakdowns are looking even noisier following the long-awaited narrowing, with Labor up in South Australia, down in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, and through the floor in Western Australia. The ACNielsen poll has the swings at 7.7 per cent nationally (compared with 4.8 per cent in Newspoll), 8.1 per cent in NSW (4.2 per cent), 8.4 per cent in Victoria (4.0 per cent), 9.9 per cent in Queensland (9.1 per cent), 10.4 per cent in South Australia (11.4 per cent) and 3.1 per cent in Western Australia (-0.6 per cent). ACNielsen was conducted from a sample of 2071 voters from Monday to Wednesday, Newspoll’s from 2615 voters from Tuesday to Thursday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

784 comments on “Newspoll and ACNielsen state by state”

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  1. Dave55: “Swing Lowe – you obviously haven’t drunk any of the U.S. beers.”

    Dave55, surely Guinness is available in most of the ‘States and there are some quite drinkable Mexican and Central American brews around. It’s a shame about the mainstream US brews, tho’.

    It would seem most advisable to check supplies of Berocca and Panadol, and make well sure the ‘morning after’ fridge is stocked, locked and cold.

    A blizzardly cold Bloody Mary in a frozen glass is often most efficaceous in the morning …… : )

  2. Just back from voting at Church in Oxford St Bulimba where Rudd voted earlier.
    To say there is a lingering vibe down there is an understatement.
    Over the church and its grounds but not anywhere else in the street. IT IS TEAMING WITH RAIN.
    If you stare for a while at the ground you can see the brown grass turning green and new shoots sprouting up.
    The drought is about to BREAK !!!

  3. Quite subdued when I went to vote at Cairns Base Hospital. At this time of year the heat can really sap the energy out of people. Plenty of YRAW people and 3 old ladies handing out Lib HTV cards. Other than that it seemed a lot quieter than usual, the CBH voting booth is hidden away on the 2nd floor of A block and I think most people would of gone to more easy to find booths. Vote locked and loaded with a Greens/Lab vote in both houses.

  4. OK guys… first ever post… but a very key question… How come John Howard gets to vote in Bennelong when both his official and private residences are in North Sydney??? It’s been baffling me, so I thought I’d seek an answer here…

  5. Just returned from the polling station on the border of North Sydney / Bradfield and was quite alarmed by a couple of things…

    – the number of people that didn’t seem to know which electorate they were in!!!

    – a couple of people who approached an AEC volunteer, pointing to a Labour HTV card and asked – “Do we have to put Mike Bailey at #1?”

    Obviously, a lot of people don’t take such an interest in politics as I do 🙂

  6. 607 Julie

    I’ve just got back HTVing at from Mowbray West, and I think I must have been standing next to your husband in the pouring rain from about 10.30am
    to 1pm. We had a chance to chat from time to time when things were quiet
    (I was handing out for the Greens). He mentioned having lived in the USA, but I only realised the PB connection after I got home and saw your post. It’s a small world!

  7. Thanks James – I know that he’s the member for Bennelong :-)… but I thought everyone was registered to vote at their place of residence, or are special arrangements in place for sitting members / candidates?

  8. @Leek: Nah, i think if you are a member you can live away from your electorate, though for all others beside the PM it would be hard justifying doing so. Either way, I think he could be moving out tomorrow 😀

  9. Do we all have the blinkers on here? We are relying on a Morgan poll and we all (well most of us) want Labor to win. The SMH believes that Labor will not pickup any seats in Victoria. They say Rudd is downbeat.

    Should we be a little more humble or am I being too pessimistic?

  10. @Nostradoofus: I’ve always thought it prudent to not get too excited, as we all know Howard is “tricksing” (as Gollum would put it) and combining this with some voter apathy could spell out a completely unexpected result. I’d refrain myself from making any bold predictions until at least some exit polls appear.

  11. Greens seem to be polling extraordinarily well in working class area of Franklin. Several people have checked HTV tickets to ensure they are anti-Howard. The Socialist Alliance bloke is transgender, the Liberal bloke is just saying “make Franklin a marginal seat” and not mentioning the Libs at all.

    Now back to it till 6 pm.

    Good luck folks. It’s bloody hot and windy here. But worth it.

  12. Just back from HTVing in North Sydney – positive mood I think, Liberal HTVers were keeping spirits up but one of them told me that “North Sydney is on a knife-edge”.

    I’m confident…

  13. man…im as nervous as a long-tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs

    the signs look ok but this may be just my biased left leaning viewing..

    another 5 or 6 hours of this agony…..

  14. Queues! What queues? We don’t do queues in the Green Wedge.

    I’m back from St Andrews (2 ALP workers, 1 Liberal whose relief had not turned up and 1 Green who knew just about every voter by name), and it’s obvious that Bob Brown will be PM by 8.00pm – even if it takes a House swap! (See 341)

    Recycling of HTVs has increased enormously since my first election (1969).

    I have a bottle of red won in a 2002 Frankston branch ALP raffle ready to open tonight.

  15. I might also add that there was not a single Howard poster to be seen anywhere near my booth – and this is rolled-gold solid Liberal territory.

  16. Went to vote at 7.45 in darlington (Sydney Electorate). Long queue – only labor and green – no lib posters, htv cards, etc. So I went for a walk. Only labor and greens in Redfern and chipendale. Libs have deserted us here in Sydney. And I had my verbal abuse prepared for them.

  17. Went to vote today, but despite my seat being a fairly safe ALP seat, the Libs were out in numbers, both in the queue and giving out HTV’s.

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