Out of bed now, so I’m a bit late with the news that Morgan has completed a hat-trick of polls that have produced their closest result for the year just in time for polling day. Conducted last night, it has Labor ahead 53.5-46.5, their primary vote at 43.5 per cent (the lowest since January) and the Coalition’s at 41.5 per cent (highest since last November). The odd pollster out, ACNielsen, conducted its poll much earlier in the week.
In administrative news, I just did cleared out a huge volume of comments from moderation, so apologies to those who were held up there. Most of you were first timers you should be able to comment freely now. I’m off to perform my civic duty, and will have a think about how to handle the election night traffic on my return. I’m much preferring IRC to Meebo (see “Dress Rehearsal 3” post below) and beginning to think that alone should be enough to divert enough blog comment traffic to prevent my server from melting down.
595 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5”
I’ll tell you what Steveo, I had a big bet on Rafter once in a wimbledon semi final against Aggasi and it went to five very long sets. (Rafter then went on to lose the final)
Mate I don’t want to go through that again tonight.
I wouldn’t be paying too much attention to an exit poll on Bennelong — other than that it probably indicates a close result …
Howard Hater, I would *so* love to see some dancing in the streets 🙂
New thread up.
bennelong lost??? be still my beating heart
AND remember possums … smaller swings in the marginals
On that marginal seat swing, the pollster from Auspoll is saying that Labor should win about 30 extra seats.
omg omg omg omg
“smaller swings in the marginals”
The marginals only need smaller swings. That’s why they are marginal.
KIna is suggesting dome big swings in less marginals 😀
Bruce Baird just got over his constipation
could have been worse centre…you could have bet on rafter against ivanisevic..he lost in the final there in 5 sets…and over 3 days
I’m glad I stayed home as the Channel 7 exit poll was for Bennelong showing 7% to Maxine
”On that marginal seat swing, the pollster from Auspoll is saying that Labor should win about 30 extra seats.” Presumably that means IF it is accurate that would be the implication.
Howard Hater Says:
November 24th, 2007 at 5:02 pm
If Newspoll is blatantly proved wrong tonight, David O’Shaunessy should resign.
H.H., sorry to disappoint you, but Newspoll (and Galaxy) Big Business clients aren’t going stop contracting David O’S. to do research after he’s had a go at saving Howard’s hind end. It’s like Scooter Libby coming out of Jail and straight to 5 figure fees for speeches to extreme rightwing think tanks and spots on Foxnews. The power elite always look after their own so that others will continue in the same way to “manufacture consent”.
Skynews have already called Bennelong for Labor (53:47 TPP) on basis of Exit Polls at 5.30 pm AEST…. did I chuckle..
and Eden-Monaro 58:42 TPP
but the panel is saying, “won’t believe it, till we see it”
it’s a trainwreck!!!!!!!
Why is Hawker still spouting so much spin? Is he hoping that some people in WA are watching and still haven’t voted?
Can I ask again, what is the record of these exit polls like elsewhere around the world? I want to be excited, and as Mulder used to say:
I want to believe…
The landslide is on!
BetFair’s still on, offering Labor 1.18 / Coalition 4.0
Yes Leek Hawker showing how you win. Never give UP Never give IN.
BIG swing up here 10.5 %
Howard Hater 474
Maybe you’ll be stuck with a by-election if Ruddock wins Berowra, have seen several respectful and serious hints on blogs that his health may not be good.
At 2.30 local time I voted at an inner Brisbane booth (Arch Bevis sitting member), poll official told me there was a 40 minute wait this morning, was about 15 mins this afternoon.
Labs/Greens helpers were positive, Libs looked disheartened, even though the entire length of the front fence of the school was covered with the Lib scare banner.
Was surprised to hear on ABC radio news that Turnbull apparently said if he’s voted out or is not successful at a by-election, he’ll leave politics for good. Too sad! Too bad!!
Not long to go now! Will be closely following the reactions of the Poll Bludger/Possum communities tonight!!
please let it be so…….
On ABC they were saying that word is a that after yesterdays narrowing there has been a divergence today and Labor is feeling good and the Liberals are very worried.
get on Max while there is still time!!
another thread going on – moving over now
Is there a potential vested interest in showing a labor landslide here to get more of a swing back to the libs in WA for the afternoon and the last hours in QLD and SA??
Again, I wouldn’t take the exit polls to seriously on the bennelong result — and I placed a fair bet on Maxine — but howard will be squirming. this was always gonna be the case. how sad!
seven news poll 53/47 ALP/LNP nationwide, sweeeet!
Howard Hater Says:
No, not really 🙂 he will resign and force a by election now 🙂
Diogenes – keep the plonk for an hour or so – just get on the ALP on Betfair – again and again. Particularly on Maxine at $3 after seeing 53/47 there. Even just the overall result. No such gift has ever been given to a punter before. It’s money for jam.
Can I start unwrapping the Rockford’s Black Shiraz?
Just the one bottle?
Bias potential: Labor voters more willing to participate in exit poll??
I just jumped in and took the $3 on Maxine at Betfair. For those with an account you have to ring up. Bet can’t be made on the net. Bloody stupid rule.
The exit poll people didnt qualify their figures very much
If early indicators are to be trusted this WILL be the last time the Libs dare to tread on the working mans toes 🙂
This election has become about 2 IMHO: Wotk choices and the environment.
i hope howard is gone in bennelong,
What is OzPoll’s record like?
They got pretty close in the NSW election Samuel K.
exit poll now headlining on news.com.au, ALP expected to win, PM to lose seat.
Maxine just came in from $3 to $2.10 on Betfair in one hit. I just made it! ALP in to $1.20
im starting to feel a bit more relaxed now 🙂
”Maxine just came in from $3 to $2.10 on Betfair in one hit. I just made it! ALP in to $1.20”
Well done! I only got 2:15 on Friday! Then I just want to be able to say I put the bet on if he goes down, and that’s far more important to me 🙂
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