Morgan: 53.5-46.5

Out of bed now, so I’m a bit late with the news that Morgan has completed a hat-trick of polls that have produced their closest result for the year just in time for polling day. Conducted last night, it has Labor ahead 53.5-46.5, their primary vote at 43.5 per cent (the lowest since January) and the Coalition’s at 41.5 per cent (highest since last November). The odd pollster out, ACNielsen, conducted its poll much earlier in the week.

In administrative news, I just did cleared out a huge volume of comments from moderation, so apologies to those who were held up there. Most of you were first timers – you should be able to comment freely now. I’m off to perform my civic duty, and will have a think about how to handle the election night traffic on my return. I’m much preferring IRC to Meebo (see “Dress Rehearsal 3” post below) and beginning to think that alone should be enough to divert enough blog comment traffic to prevent my server from melting down.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

595 comments on “Morgan: 53.5-46.5”

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  1. I’ll tell you what Steveo, I had a big bet on Rafter once in a wimbledon semi final against Aggasi and it went to five very long sets. (Rafter then went on to lose the final)

    Mate I don’t want to go through that again tonight.

  2. could have been worse centre…you could have bet on rafter against ivanisevic..he lost in the final there in 5 sets…and over 3 days


  3. ”On that marginal seat swing, the pollster from Auspoll is saying that Labor should win about 30 extra seats.” Presumably that means IF it is accurate that would be the implication.

  4. #
    Howard Hater Says:
    November 24th, 2007 at 5:02 pm

    If Newspoll is blatantly proved wrong tonight, David O’Shaunessy should resign.

    H.H., sorry to disappoint you, but Newspoll (and Galaxy) Big Business clients aren’t going stop contracting David O’S. to do research after he’s had a go at saving Howard’s hind end. It’s like Scooter Libby coming out of Jail and straight to 5 figure fees for speeches to extreme rightwing think tanks and spots on Foxnews. The power elite always look after their own so that others will continue in the same way to “manufacture consent”.

  5. Skynews have already called Bennelong for Labor (53:47 TPP) on basis of Exit Polls at 5.30 pm AEST…. did I chuckle..

    and Eden-Monaro 58:42 TPP

    but the panel is saying, “won’t believe it, till we see it”

  6. Guys,

    Can I ask again, what is the record of these exit polls like elsewhere around the world? I want to be excited, and as Mulder used to say:

    I want to believe…

  7. Howard Hater 474

    Maybe you’ll be stuck with a by-election if Ruddock wins Berowra, have seen several respectful and serious hints on blogs that his health may not be good.

    At 2.30 local time I voted at an inner Brisbane booth (Arch Bevis sitting member), poll official told me there was a 40 minute wait this morning, was about 15 mins this afternoon.

    Labs/Greens helpers were positive, Libs looked disheartened, even though the entire length of the front fence of the school was covered with the Lib scare banner.

    Was surprised to hear on ABC radio news that Turnbull apparently said if he’s voted out or is not successful at a by-election, he’ll leave politics for good. Too sad! Too bad!!

    Not long to go now! Will be closely following the reactions of the Poll Bludger/Possum communities tonight!!

  8. On ABC they were saying that word is a that after yesterdays narrowing there has been a divergence today and Labor is feeling good and the Liberals are very worried.

  9. Is there a potential vested interest in showing a labor landslide here to get more of a swing back to the libs in WA for the afternoon and the last hours in QLD and SA??

  10. Again, I wouldn’t take the exit polls to seriously on the bennelong result — and I placed a fair bet on Maxine — but howard will be squirming. this was always gonna be the case. how sad!

  11. Re 474,

    Howard Hater Says:

    November 24th, 2007 at 5:21 pm
    Mad Cow: I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed for your bloke Jim Arneman.
    Unfortunately for those of us Labor supporters in Berowra, we’re stuck with the walking corpse for another 3 years.

    No, not really 🙂 he will resign and force a by election now 🙂

  12. Diogenes – keep the plonk for an hour or so – just get on the ALP on Betfair – again and again. Particularly on Maxine at $3 after seeing 53/47 there. Even just the overall result. No such gift has ever been given to a punter before. It’s money for jam.

  13. I just jumped in and took the $3 on Maxine at Betfair. For those with an account you have to ring up. Bet can’t be made on the net. Bloody stupid rule.

  14. ”Maxine just came in from $3 to $2.10 on Betfair in one hit. I just made it! ALP in to $1.20”

    Well done! I only got 2:15 on Friday! Then I just want to be able to say I put the bet on if he goes down, and that’s far more important to me 🙂

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