Newspoll and ACNielsen state by state

Newspoll’s state-by-state breakdowns are looking even noisier following the long-awaited narrowing, with Labor up in South Australia, down in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, and through the floor in Western Australia. The ACNielsen poll has the swings at 7.7 per cent nationally (compared with 4.8 per cent in Newspoll), 8.1 per cent in NSW (4.2 per cent), 8.4 per cent in Victoria (4.0 per cent), 9.9 per cent in Queensland (9.1 per cent), 10.4 per cent in South Australia (11.4 per cent) and 3.1 per cent in Western Australia (-0.6 per cent). ACNielsen was conducted from a sample of 2071 voters from Monday to Wednesday, Newspoll’s from 2615 voters from Tuesday to Thursday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

784 comments on “Newspoll and ACNielsen state by state”

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  3. We really can’t conclude there’s a trend from the Newspoll/Galaxy polls. There seems to have been a ‘slight’ narrowing from the start of the campaign but conventional wisdom would suggest the two 52/48 results are outliers, and the real underlying figure is a bit stronger for Labor.

    Anyhow. One more poll remaining, and it’s the one that counts.

  4. The WA figures are really different and I think, are skewing the national 2PP by 2-3 points by my calcs (54/46 without WA’s numbers). Hopefully one of the clever pundits on PB can help me grasp it.
    A 6 point primary vote drop by ALP in 4 short days and a 4 point primary gain for the coalition in the same period looks odd. Lets hope it’s all over by the time we get to the west.

  5. The newspoll data is considerably more reassuring than their headline figure.

    Labor is going to win comfortably. Kroger to each sh1t sandwich.

  6. That big swing in SA seems like a waste if the seat specific polling for Boothby and Sturt is correct.

    Or will Grey and Mayo be the seats that ‘cancel out’? (I can’t see it.)

  7. I go to bed a happy man.
    I agree Ashley it’s going to be a great day for all Australians today.
    We can regain our soul, our heart and our Country’s self respect.

  8. The Alp win win on the night with these figures. They are ahead on Primaries in every state bar WA.

    If the ALP has 20+ before WA closes its all over red rover. Qld will bring home the bacon for Mr Rudd !

  9. Does anyone know what the hell could have happened in Western Australia in a few days to see so many voters change? Or is it likely to be pure statistical funniness?

  11. In less than 18 hours John Howard is going to concede defeat. I trust one of you will tape it and put it up on youtube so we can watch it again, and again, and again.

  12. Ok … up in Sydney …. can’t sleep any longer 😉 going out to vote first thing, must get the 6 & 9yo’s organized later (@ 7am), then we are out of here. 20 minute walk on foot with an umbrella.

  13. I’d say at least ten people will post at least some clips of it on YouTube.

    That’ll be nice to watch. Then, less than a year later, I get to watch Hillary’s acceptance speech and Romney’s concession.

  14. From an article in the Age discussing Election parties –

    “Whether it’s a barbie, a full-on bash or just a few friends circling a TV set like sharks, the election party is an Australian ritual that transcends political lines. But for diehard Coalition barrackers there’s a sense that this year it’s, well, not 1996 — or 1998, 2001 or 2004 for that matter.

    “Most people I know will be drowning their sorrows,” confides one card-carrying Liberal, who insists on anonymity but compares the mood among the faithful to that after the 1993 election, when Paul Keating snatched what seemed certain victory from John Hewson.”

    🙂 🙂

  16. NSW Marginals polling booth update –
    Macquarie – Libs have all polling booths plastered and have hired security guards since yesterday night. YRAW now fighting for space. ALP nowhere in bathurst
    Eden-M – Nats got the jump as well in Queanbeyan, security guards in even small booths but YRAW and ALP fighting back for space
    Dobell – Lib and ALP both got security guards (hopefully they don’t fight). Libs got best space but more even for ALP
    Page – YRAW and ALP all booths plastered. Nats invisible so far

  18. First off: whether the poll is accurate or not, is still a question in mind, however ……

    2615 subjects in a poll of 5 states, works out to around 525 per state. That gives us a margin-of-error per state of (?) 4% ?

    Ergo, if you believe this poll, the average swing of 4.8% is about the only figure to be taken seriously.

  19. Knowing your maths is a lot better than mine, Ashley, I’ll take your word for it that it’s (the win) there.

    I can’t logically follow the rapid ‘turn-around’ in voting intentions in the first place anyway. If there is substance in it, will it start a new campaigning trend of stuffing up every other day?

    The most likely explanation is that a share of Labor 1st voters may have moved over to the Greens. A few may move back after these headlines. But in any case, Newspoll/Galaxy have got something wrong with how they assign prefs.

    No denying, on this evidence, that the coalition’s doing better in WA. With reasonable luck it won’t matter.

  20. Why the hell would the major political parties be fighting for space at booths?

    Are they really that dirty? Can’t they just be respectful to the spirit of democracy?

    OK, that was rhetorical.

  22. I’m sitting here, stomach churning, in full knowledge that if the forces of darkness are returned, Julie Bishop will decide what I can teach the students in my town. And, of course, I’ll be measured on it!

  24. Latest Morgan phone poll (Friday 23/11/2007)

    Primary vote:
    ALP: 43.5%

    LP: 37.5%
    Nats: 4%
    Coalition: 41.5%

    Greens: 8.5%
    Democrats:0%

    Others: 6.5%

    2-Party preferred:
    ALP: 53.5%
    Coalition: 46.5%

  25. Hi Everyone

    Before I go to staff a polling booth, I wanted to wish everyone a great day.

    We are so fortunate to be able to have an Election Day.

    Go Kevin 07

    Dont forget to support those P&C cake stalls!!!!!!

    Cheers

    BrissyRod & Co

    P.S Polls STILL point to a Labor win IMHO

  26. HI all- off to set up at the local booths. I voted yesterday at prepolling, and apparently about 20% are choosing to do this is some seats, so their vote won’t be counted today – could be along night for some cliffhangers, including the Senate of course.
    Enjoy your day – and thanks for the entertainment and information over the past months – it has made the wholee campaign much more enjoyable.
    SO here’s to the demise of neo cons in Australia.
    Go Greens in the senate!
    Jen.

  28. Thanks William,

    Of to man the booth all day, how could anyone stay away.

    Re “Follow the Preferences”, the Greens will deliver this election to the ALP and Australian Politics will never be the same again, The defining issue and the changing polemic is this. The Right have used religion and misunderstood Christianity as their votecatcher. We see this with all these bizzare micro-nutter parties.
    The new issue is of course climate change and The Greens Have total Credibility in this issue, They are being swamped by thousands of highly committed intelligent and educated people and will continue to improve. Their vote in this election will be the second story and will force the ALP to take Global Warming more seriously.

    The ALP GREENS preference deal was the defining moment in this election. It said that the ALP knew that it was going to be closer than the innitial polls said. They secured the election with that deal.

    Prediction, ALP by between 4-10 seats.
    Senate Greens balance of power.

    Thanks again William.

  31. Putting the Newspoll swings (for NSW, Vic, Qld, SA and WA) into Anthony Green’s pendulum on ABC Elections and then adding two seats for Tas (Bass and Braddon) and 1 seat for NT (Solomon) makes 83 seats – the number I predicted yesterday but with differences in the seats that a re won or lost between Labor and Coalition, although admittedly there are a few seats with margins less than 1% (especially in Qld) with Bennenlong at 0.07% being the most marginal Labor gain – just as I predicted yesterday!

    Mind you, along with Galaxy, this is the WORST poll for Labor this year.

  32. Hi guys

    Well the day has finally come for Australia to decide what type of nation it becomes.

    I have faith that they will make the right decision.

    Thanks William for this site and thanks to the posters here for their informative discussion.

    Advance.

  34. So Morgan is 53.5/46.5

    Looks like there *may* have been some narrowing and the final ALP 2PP vote will be about 52-53, enough to give a victory to Labor by a nose.
    A Coalition victory could still happen, but if it does, there’ll need to be some investigation into what was going on in those marginals. I don’t believe that the incident in Lindsay has been the only dirty trick going on here.

  35. Howard staisfaction 51, Rudd 63. A battle betweeen 2 popular candidates.

    I believe 1998 and 2001 was the same sort of election, so I am expecting it to be close. The winner will not make it into the 80s with their seats.

  37. Looking at the latest newspoll breakdown for WA, I’m not sure how they have calculate their 2 party preferred???

    WA primary vote:
    Coalition: 50%
    ALP: 37%
    Greens: 8%
    Others: 5%

    2-party preferred:
    Coalition: 56%
    ALP:44%

    How did they reach this conclusion? Is the coalition going to sweep up all the “other” votes in WA??? Seems strange!

    Compare this with the previous state breakdown for WA:
    Coalition: 46%
    ALP: 43%
    Greens: 6%
    Others: 5%

    2-party preferred on these figures is:
    Coalition: 50%
    ALP: 50%

  38. Perhaps the “narrowing” will have the effect of encouraging last minute decisions to vote Labor from those who previously thought others might do the job for them.

  39. It will be a real laugh if Morgan comes in at 53.5 and turns out to be the closest. My own prediction from wayback has always been 53.7. So go Morgan.

  40. Nailbiting stuff. Been up since 5 when my little boy woke me up. He knows it’s a big day. The good fight has been fought. There’s nothing more to do than put our faith in the common sense of the Australian people. We can only hope that they know that the country needs a change for the better. I’m nervous and worried. I’ll relax if I see Howard concede tonight.

  41. Good morning everyone,

    Time to get up and get going, and I wish you all a good day. As Wiliam’s headline says, we are truly lucky to live in this great democracy. For those of us handing out HTVs etc, let’s try to be polite and gracious to each other and our opponents, no matter how hard it may sometimes be. Most of us are volunteers who are trying one way or another to do what we think is right for this country and its future.

    Many thanks to William for setting up such a great site, and thanks to all of you who have kept me sane over the past weeks with your insightful and (often) witty comments.

    Good luck, and see you all tonight.

  43. Labor ahead and sure to win,A big swing coming in Queensland and Sth Aussie,we will be the beacons that light the way home.NSW will swing to Labor,we’ll get seats there.Victoria is an unknown,but fingers crossed there too.Still reckon Labor by 85 seats all up
    Good luck to you all today in whatever ALP booth you are in and keep the faith!!!

  44. Of course there has been a narrowing. When the (often politically apathetic) undecided finally make up their minds at the death there’s a bias towards the incumbent.

    Hopefully those tipping 90+ seats have now woken up and are back amongst us in the real world.

    It is AC Neilsen that is the outlier, I’m sure of it.

  47. Nostradoofus I am with you! However I have to go to work on a polling booth ….for the AEC!

    Everyone seen Morgan this morning?

    Labor still on a 7% lead!

    Moreover even with Newspoll I cannot see how there could be a 10% swing to Labor with them picking up 8 to 10 seats there.

  48. The WA marginal numbers were a bit concerning in that Morgan. A 3.3% swing against the ALP would mean the loss of both ALP marginals over there.

    If only we could hive off WA from the rest of the country! 😉

  49. My take on Newspoll. The table below only looks at Labor and compares the poll taken between 20-22.

    State Primary TPP Party benefiting
    NSW 44 53 Libs
    VIC

  50. My take on Newspoll. The table below only looks at Labor and compares the poll taken between 20-22.

    State Primary TPP Party benefiting
    NSW 44 53 Libs
    VIC

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