Newspoll and ACNielsen state by state

Newspoll’s state-by-state breakdowns are looking even noisier following the long-awaited narrowing, with Labor up in South Australia, down in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, and through the floor in Western Australia. The ACNielsen poll has the swings at 7.7 per cent nationally (compared with 4.8 per cent in Newspoll), 8.1 per cent in NSW (4.2 per cent), 8.4 per cent in Victoria (4.0 per cent), 9.9 per cent in Queensland (9.1 per cent), 10.4 per cent in South Australia (11.4 per cent) and 3.1 per cent in Western Australia (-0.6 per cent). ACNielsen was conducted from a sample of 2071 voters from Monday to Wednesday, Newspoll’s from 2615 voters from Tuesday to Thursday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

784 comments on “Newspoll and ACNielsen state by state”

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  1. good morning everyone, well today’s D day — weve been waiting for it, i’m off to have my shower and be at the booth when it opens and then chew my nails down to the quick lol, GO KEVIN 07!!!!!!!

  2. Good morning all. Well, its a 2 hour stint for me with HTV Labor, raining here in northern NSW but hope that won’t dampen Labor spirits.

    Good luck to all (except for you know who)

    See you all tonight, for the “reckoning” but hopefully a few laughs along the way.

    (I’m not as cynical as my father was, “doesn’t matter who you vote for, some bastard always gets in.”)

    And thanks William for the blog, this site is a national treasure along with Possum’s and others, and welcome relief from the MSM with their often b/s analysis.

  3. misty you are so right (wing)

    “Hopefully those tipping 90+ seats have now woken up and are back amongst us in the real world.”

    actually i am still asleep will wake up when the death rattle of the howard dictatorship happens (about 7pm est today) 🙂

  4. Look at the state by state primary votes in Newspoll:

    NSW: 47/42/7 ALP/LNP/Green
    VIC: 47/43/6
    QLD: 49/43/5
    SA: 48/38/5
    WA: 43/50/8 <– this is an obvious outlier!!

    I think in this election 90% of Green and Dem and other centre to centre left party 2nd preferences will go to ALP as people are sick to the stomach of LNP shenanigans. So the TPP east of WA will probably be about 57/43 as predicted by AC Neilsen…
    Does it matter what happens in WA with that result?????

    Labor will poo all over Johnny!!!!

  5. All the polls (particularly after you check the state breakdowns) suggest a clear win to Labor, with Neilsen suggesting a massacre.

    The significant thing is that both Neilsen and Newspoll say there are huge swings on in Queensland and South Australia. That’s almost enough to seal it. And even a small swing will deliver more seats in NSW, Tas and the NT.

    So unless the narrowing has continued overnight (a la Bracks vs Kennett), Labor won’t lose. But it will certainly be an exciting election night, with little chance of a uniform swing, and the WA results coming in late.

    I have just put the champagne in the fridge. I will drink it tonight, no matter who wins. As BrisssyRod pointed out, we are so lucky to be able to vote governments in or out, and to openly criticise our leaders.

    Just going outside to check if there’s any sign of a further narrowing…

  7. Wow the Morgan numbers are wacky

    This is the movement in TPP he is reporting has occured in just one week

    NSW +4.5 to L-NP
    VIC + 4.5 to ALP
    QLD + 3.5 to L-NP
    SA + 2.5 to L-NP
    WA + 2.5 to L-NP
    TAS +0.5 to L-NP

    Basically he is saying ALP are going to lose NSW but win on the back of a Victorian vote?

    Damn, I thought this poll was going to help me

  9. Drizzling when helping set up booth in Warringah,but a jaunty step in both ALP and Green booth captains. Libs have stolen the best spots as they do every year ,but no sign of any Libs. Their body language will say it all.
    Thanks, PBers for some great insight and humour….so encouraging that others want the change as much!

  11. #49 Davo Don’t forget that there are more minor parties than just the Greens. Obviously the Green vote will be significant, but there’ll be a few percent around for Family First, One Nation will poll a few votes in assorted parts of Quensland, and there’ll be a few influential independents. I wouldn’t put the total preference flow from minor parties to Labor at anywhere near 90 per cent. 60/40 is about normal, and will probably apply today too.

    In South Australia, in particular, there appears to be quite a strong minor party vote, so there’s probably a last Democrat bastion alive there.

    And the WA figures add up to 101%.

    I think the Greens will poll fairly well today, but their influence will largely be in the Senate. In the House of Reps, their vote will be largely confined to safe Lib and Labor seats, except for Tassie and a few special seats like Page and Wentworth.

    Wentworth and Bennelong will be great to watch tonight.

  16. I put in the Morgan, Newspoll and ACN state swings into the seats calculator at ABC Elections and I got these results:

    Morgan phone: Labor = 94, Coalition = 54, Independents = 2 (Labor majority = 38)

    Newspoll: Labor = 83, Coalition = 65, Independents = 2 (Labor majority = 16)

    AC Nielsen: Labor = 98, Coalition = 50, Independents = 2 (Labor majority = 46)

    I note that ACN and Newspoll didn’t have the swings for Tasmania, so I added in two probable Labor gains – Bass and Braddon. None of the pollsters had a separate swing for the Northern Territory, so I added in the probable gain of Solomon (a favourite for Labor to win according to the bookies).

  17. Good morning everyone

    I have no reason to change my tip of 87 ALP seats.

    Simon Jackman

    http://jackman.stanford.edu/blog/?p=473#comment-4231

    explains the difference in Newspoll, Galaxy, ACN as being all about assumptions of preferences from minor parties. If Galaxy are using 2004 results ie 56/44 they are understating (in my view). I’m confident they will be > 75%.
    I think those voting 1 Greens or Democrats in general will not want the LCP in for a fifth term. If you plug in the 75% to the assumed high levels (13%) of Primary Votes for Greens/Democrats, I think we’ll get around 53.5%. Plenty.

    NSW and QLD to decide the next three years.

    I sense a real mood for change; let’s make it happen. As I posted yesterday: vote early, vote legally.

  18. I would like to do a bit of me tooism. Let’s be courteous to those working at the booths. They’re doing what they believe in. And also thanks to William for taking us strays in when Mr Palmer made us leave home. He’s a fine fellow is Mr Bowe.

  19. I see Forde in Qld as a possibility, takes in the area around Beenleigh, must be a lot of mortgage stress around there, and of course serfchoices.

  20. The strange thing about the WA polling figures is how they totally disagree with the betting markets. Going by polls, you would have to say that Hasluck and Cowan are certain to go to the libs. Yet their odds at ALL betting sites remain between 2.2 and 2.6. The bookies are offering black odds against “certainties”. Bookies just don’t do that. The other thing is that the WA figures drag down the overall averages in the polls. The eastern states figures, including Newspoll, suggest a massive alp result there. At worst, 1 seat (Cowan) can go to the libs. But the bookies are saying this will not happen, and in fact Hasluck will go to the Alp. I’m revising my 52.9 prediction I posted over a week ago upwards to 53.2

  21. Iasbet: Labor $1.30, Coalition $3.55 (It was down near $3 last evening for awhile).

    Centrebet: $1.25, $4 (also down near 3 for awhile last eve)

    Looking real good. The real “Insiders” know it’s Labor.

    Good luck to all Labor’s long-suffering true-believers.

  22. I HATE being this nervous when 12 time zones away – what a time to take an exchange semester, eh?

    It’s still Friday afternoon, which meand I’ll probably sleep through the declaration of the victor….. 🙁

  23. Markets gave closed with the late money, which is always the smart money, rushing to Labor.

    Favourite at Portland for number of Labor seats: 84 and 85 equally.

    The nervous nellies can calm down. It will be a famous victory.

  24. The last Morgan poll in 2004 had Labor ahead 51/49. The final result was 47/53. Today’s final morgan poll had Labor ahead 53.5 to 46.5, an improvement of only 2.5 points over last time.

    The last Newspoll in 2004 was 50/50. The last Newspoll in 2007 was 52/48, an improvement of only two points.

    The last Galaxy poll in 2004 was 48/52 compared to 52/48 this time around, an improvement of four points.

    These results are consistent and point to a swing to Labor of only two to three percent, not nearly enough for them to win government. They may even lose the popular vote.
    AC Nielsen is clearly an outlier, and must be ignored.

  25. Re Morgan:
    Labor Marginal swing still 5.2%, same as previous Morgan. This means some larger margins must come into play to compensate the close ones like Bennelong.

  26. Popped by to see how you’re all going. Good to see that you’re all still confident. You should be. I’m off to bed in an hour or so. By the time I’ve woken up, had a breakfast and logged on, the booths will be closed in the eastern states and a couple of hours after that, we’ll have put this 11-year nightmare behind us.

    Hope to celebrate with you all later tonight.

    VB

  27. From Sportingbet:
    Australia’s biggest bookmaker, Sportingbet Australia, has today released an exclusive market on which seat will be the most marginal after the election.

    And the favorite is Bennelong at odds of $9.00 – a strong indication that the contest in the PM’s seat will go right down to the wire.

    “I’d say the PM is in for a long night in more ways than one,” said Sportingbet CEO, Michael Sullivan.

    The announcement follows a $15,000 bet taken by Sportingbet Australia on Maxine McKew in the last 24 hours – taking the total amount of money bet on the seat of Bennelong alone to more than $150,000.

    Mr Sullivan said that Ms McKew was now at the shortest odds to win the seat with Sportingbet Australia since September when there was mounting speculation that Howard would retire.

  29. Well, it’s been a long year.

    If Labor wins tonight, congratulations to all those who are happy with the result.

    But if Howard wins… you guys will have some serious egg on your faces.

    Furthermore, you guys will need to start taking Nostradamus seriously.

    I’m off to the polling booths.

  30. Nostro, the betting markets cut through all the polling noise.

    Last time, despite Newspoll and Morgan showing Labor in a with a real chance, the coalition closing price was $1.16. The markets knew who was going to win.

    This time, Labor’s closing price is $1.25. They are overwhelming favourites, like the coalition last time.

    And this is with Labor needing to win 16 seats, while the coalition only had to not lose 10 seats in 2004 to winthe election.

  31. Based on these polls Labor should win the election. It’s important to note that the state bt state swings indicate a lower threshold of around 83 or so seats. This means Labor could afford to not win 9 of these seats and still form minority goverment. Note, the Morgan suggests a win at around 86 seats, which would allow for them to not win 12 of these seats.

    Not long now til we see.

  32. As a NZ citizen and resident I won’t be able to vote at the election, but it’s been a fascinating several months closely following the election campaign and a bit of the virtual campaign that probably started as soon as Rudd was elected Labor leader almost a year ago.

    I have enjoyed visiting this site and have learned a lot about what is happening on the ground during the election campaign. I have enjoyed occasionally posting comments on this blog – although I think much of my comments are probably those of an ignorant Kiwi. 😉

    I have regretted some of the comments I have posted, particularly those personal comments directed at LTEP and Glen. I may disagree with them but their opinions are sincere and I should’ve just left it at that without ridiculing them personally.

    This has been an interesting election campaign and it’s been a challenge adjusting my head to the preferential voting system – we have a mixed member proportional (MMP) system in NZ which despite it’s drawbacks (hard to get a majority – even in coalitions) it’s main advantage is that how many total votes a party gets more or less determines the number of seats they get. So if Australia had MPP at it’s federal elections all the latest polls will be saying a clear Labor-Green coalition.

    Anyway I better go – it’s now just after 10am across the Tasman, so voters in NSW and Queensland would’ve started voting by now. Next year will be interesting one to follow politics – as it’s the NZ general election and the US presidential/congressional elections. My prediction for the NZ election is that Labour will lose government.

  33. The election should be called before the Western Australian polls closed. Could be enough to turn late voting sandgropers in marginal seats into voting Labor. As everyone knows, it’s much better to have as your local member someone from the government side if you want the pork to be spread your way. This just might make enough difference in Cowan, Hasluck and Stirling.

  34. Morning all,

    Well I’m sticking with my prediction of 91 seats with another 3rd party/independent lucking it in somewhere (wishing it was the Greens candidate in Mayo but sadly there hasn’t been a mirage of that magnitude for 2,000 years).

    To me it beggars belief that there could be such a large narrowing in a couple of days given the week the Libs have had.

    But if that loathsome bastard does sneak back in then in 2010 forget the bats, it’ll be wooden stakes and garlands of garlic time!!

  35. Good morning all. The E-day is finally here and I am about to go out and do my duty as a citizen to help throw out this odious government we have had for the past 11.5 years. Hope it will be a great day for all those who believe in basic humanity and civility.

  36. Special Morgan Poll innovative research methods found the ‘voting intention’ of those who refused to be interviewed on the telephone divided 51% ALP, 49% L-NP.

    Huh?! Special innovative research? Just calling it that doesn’t make it so, I’d like to see this research.

  38. Good luck to all those on the booths today. If you are not, dont forget a friendly smile or word when you voting. It is amazing how a bit of encouragement spurs you on.
    Any PB’s in Bennelong,come and say g’day. By way of recognition, i will have my ’75 Shame Fraser Shame badge next to my ’83 Give Bob the Job badge next to my Kevin07 badge (and, proudly, my YRAW badge!).
    cheers

  43. Once again…it’s all in the preferences.

    ACneilson asked voters their first pref AND their second pref. Newspoll and Galaxy went with prefs from 2004.

    Now who is going to be more accurate in 2007?

    Nuff said.

    PS. Does that mean that News and Galaxy have been underestimating the Labor 2pp throughout the campaign and year????

    I think so.

  45. LTEP @ 81,

    I totally agree with you re: Morgan’s (lack of) special innovative research.

    I think Morgan is just trying to cover its back to avoid repeating the situation that occurred in 2001 and 2004 when they wrongly called the election for Labor.

  46. Morgan is a pretty big survey for him (2115) but is only of the marginals (25). This means that there were less than 100 poled in each marginal. Enough info for a state wide trend perhaps but utter BS when it comes to making individual seat calls (which RM does in relation to Wentworth and Bennelong).

    Given the huge variation between states, is it even useful to consider a national TPP?
    I’m sticking with my 84 call.

  48. Incidentally, in all polls the state by state swings would generate a larger win for the ALP than the headline national figure would have you believe.

    This is cause for concern for any Liberal Party supporter who wants to believe the swings will be likely to be where it doesn’t count. All 3 pollsters have huge swings in Qld.

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