Newspoll and ACNielsen state by state

Newspoll’s state-by-state breakdowns are looking even noisier following the long-awaited narrowing, with Labor up in South Australia, down in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, and through the floor in Western Australia. The ACNielsen poll has the swings at 7.7 per cent nationally (compared with 4.8 per cent in Newspoll), 8.1 per cent in NSW (4.2 per cent), 8.4 per cent in Victoria (4.0 per cent), 9.9 per cent in Queensland (9.1 per cent), 10.4 per cent in South Australia (11.4 per cent) and 3.1 per cent in Western Australia (-0.6 per cent). ACNielsen was conducted from a sample of 2071 voters from Monday to Wednesday, Newspoll’s from 2615 voters from Tuesday to Thursday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

784 comments on “Newspoll and ACNielsen state by state”

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  1. 553 Putney is strong Liberal but changing slowly with more profressional types coming into the area. Slot like Nth Sydney where social issues seem to be coming to the fore.

    Hard to tell as so many people take multiple HTV’s. My straw poll look along the queue was about 4 to 1 Liberal. Maxine’s crew seemed pretty up beat though.

    My wife did crack a joke about all the Bennelong Chinese voting in the erections.

  2. Speaking of omens, has anyone else noticed that in this campaign the Libs have lurched from one disaster to another. Perhaps the gods are angry?

  3. Dave55 Does it say something about internal polling if the Libs are out in force in Berowra?

    I hope so because I am about to do 4 hours on a very liberal booth there!

  4. Thanks Diogenese, went outside and looked up to see “KEV 4 PM” – that’s lifted my spirits :). Off to vote soon in the marginal seat of Makin (in the far NE) that normally goes to the Libs so will be good to sense what the vibe is…

  5. 552 Ltep, depends on the candidates. Strong rusted-on Lib element including Italian support in Dee Why. This morning an old Italian lady asked me which HTV card was for ‘Mr Howard’ as she couldn’t find his photo.
    Soooo tempting…but the old catholic schooling won out!

  6. Further to earlier reports from North Sydney, my husband is handing out HTV at Mowbray West primary school for Mike Bailey. He just called on the mobile and said since about 10am that he has seen > 50% taking ALP HTV and refusing Liberal HTV. He says at his little corner of North Sydney at least that they are out in droves now with the baseball bats 🙂 🙂

  7. 601 Basil Fawlty – you’re not wrong – I think it’s karma for the Liberals – when you run such a strongly negative psychological campaign, some of that negativity will be visited back on you.

  8. Max @ 596
    [This calm before the storm is boring me, pity there’s no cricket on. Bring on the count.]
    That will be Count Ruddockula (as known here on PB), I presume Max

  9. What are everyone’s plans for tonight?

    We are planning on watching the ABC coverage, flicking to 9 but never 7, havin the radio on to ABC News Radio [to avoid Dulhman] and having 3 laptops running withe the PB, Antony green calculator, and sky news streaming. Enough?

  10. Julie,

    Mowbray Rd West is one of the more Labor-friendly booths in Nth Sydney. However, from what you’re saying, that sounds good. Let’s hope that the sentiments are also felt in Neutral Bay and Hunters Hill…

  11. The snippets I’ve heard on PB suggest my $100 on the ALP in Ryan may not just hope over expectation…..

    My other “real money” bet went on Maxine.

    Off to vote in North Sydney (booth SCEGGS Redlands Cremorne) will report back sah!

  12. chino@615:
    Im having an election night extravaganza party. TV will be tuned in and im trying to come up with a drinking game for it 🙂

  13. Paritybit, I heard of a good drinking game……

    Watch ABC and everytime Antony Green says:

    “eden-monaro”, or

    “early results indicate”

    have a shot. You should be off your tree by 7.30.

  14. my missus takes all the HTVs and then hands them back at the end…bit of a giveaway that she’s voted green…in sunny melb we have KEV for PM in the sky…very cheeky

  15. One of the best laughs you will get today is to read the letters in the Oz. Disgruntled Tories cancelling their subscription over yesterday’s editorial!

  16. “This morning an old Italian lady asked me which HTV card was for ‘Mr Howard’ as she couldn’t find his photo.”

    I wouldn’t be surprised if the Liberals’ decision not to feature Howard on the advertising at polling booths backfires on them. There are pictures of Rudd everywhere.

    I know my daughter, who’s just below voting age, knew who Howard and Rudd were and what they looked like, but didn’t know which party each belonged to. Those who don’t speak much English, or don’t know the system very well, may see it as a contest between leaders, not parties, and get a bit confused.

    Mind you, not having pictures of John Howard is still a much better idea than HAVING pictures of Peter Costello.

  17. Robert@589 – I can categorically state that I am not Russell Crowe. Nonetheless I do hope that I have plenty to crow about when the numbers start coming in this evening.

  18. Try this for a drinking game,

    if a ALP person says Workchoices, Health, Education or Climate change have a Bourbon

    if a Liberal says the Economy or its a protest vote have a beer

    We should know the result within SIX HOURS

  19. “I heard of a good drinking game……
    Watch ABC and everytime Antony Green says:
    “eden-monaro”, or
    “early results indicate”
    have a shot. You should be off your tree by 7.30.”

    You’ll get drunk more quickly if you knock one back every time someone says “too early to tell”.

  20. Voted at the Local school in Deakin about 10AM. Extremely busy, with the queue going almost to the footpath. Kirsty Marshall was handing out HTV but I already had one (Damn). Hope the mail about early crowds indicating a swing is correct. Big Kev 4 PM skywriting just above the polling booth now (great positioning). Took the Labor and green HTV, and took the democrats out of pity. Couldn’t stomach the sausage in bread but a can of solo did my horendous hangover a world of good, and the ocean of beer last night settled my nerves. Not starting again till 6PM, and the Poll Roger waits till Kevs victory speech. My wife is nervous and jumpy and was tearing shreds off me as the house is a mess and our little election party starts in 5 hours. She went off to the gym so I have to get out of here and clean, clean, clean.

    Looked in the recycling bin, and while I couldn’t tell a difference between Labor and Libs there was a lot of green. They do quite well in Deakin but still, there were a heap of lovely green preferences there flowing away from Phil Baressi. Lots of good vibe for labor. A beautiful day to say goodbye to the rat.

    Thanks for the therapy all Pollbludgers, even Glen, even Tabitha, but Ave it, there is nothing more annoying than giggling in print. The bludgers and Possum have saved my sanity these last few months. I am confident and calm but the cleaning is screaming at me. See you all later. Labor in the house, Green in the senate. Go Kev you good thing.

  21. Have driven past several voting booths in Griffith, Bonner and Bowman taking my son to and from cricket. Noted two things The Libs seem to have more bunting/signs up especially in Bowman and Bonner and very long lines both around 8.00 am and still at 12.30 at many spots. I am not sure what this means as we have do not have optional voting.
    Am just off to vote now.
    I will vote at the Anglian Church in Oxford St Bulimba for two reasons.
    One because of the bad parking situation with all the trendy shops etc. It should have not much of a line and two Rudd voted there this morning so I will see if their is any lingering vibe.

  22. Is there a Lib blog around like this one. It would be interesting to check out what the sentiment is on the other side.

    No offence William, I love this site, but we do tend to to be a little self congratulatory, esp at the moment (myself included).

  23. “Kevin for PM” is in the Melbourne sky right above all the Tory electorates of Kooyong and Deakin. It’s not needed in my electorate of Chisholm where Anna Burke will romp it in for Labor.

  24. very impressed with the GG’s editorial yesterday and the letters page today is funny. Especially the last one with the sense of BETRAYAL being palpable!!!

  25. Dave55 @ 568

    In my 25 or so years experience of handing out at both state and federal elections, it’s probably only the labor, dems or greens who are aware enough to recycle HTVs. The libs could not give a rats.

    General: May I be bold and say to fellow PBs that this could be a long night and that comments be kept short and sweet. I tried the IRC thingo and it proved too complex for me. Have purchased a cooked chook, next task is to approach bottle shop for adequate supplies.

    Last post from me until after 6pm. This is the really nervous time …

  26. IRC doesnt work for me becuase I am using a work owned laptop and cant change the firewall settings. Is meebo going to be up an running in any way?

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