Newspoll and ACNielsen state by state

Newspoll’s state-by-state breakdowns are looking even noisier following the long-awaited narrowing, with Labor up in South Australia, down in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, and through the floor in Western Australia. The ACNielsen poll has the swings at 7.7 per cent nationally (compared with 4.8 per cent in Newspoll), 8.1 per cent in NSW (4.2 per cent), 8.4 per cent in Victoria (4.0 per cent), 9.9 per cent in Queensland (9.1 per cent), 10.4 per cent in South Australia (11.4 per cent) and 3.1 per cent in Western Australia (-0.6 per cent). ACNielsen was conducted from a sample of 2071 voters from Monday to Wednesday, Newspoll’s from 2615 voters from Tuesday to Thursday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

784 comments on “Newspoll and ACNielsen state by state”

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  3. jv – lets hope they’re not premature celebratory beers (oops, noticed mine is empty, starting to get pessimistic again – time for another me thinks)

  4. 482 Son of Labor guy who took the Daily Tele picture of Gary Clarke (Jackie Kelly’s husband) was handing out htv for Labor

    they should make him a national hero, hope his camera wasnt soiled though.

  5. 479 Nicko,

    Gehrig has nominated for the pre-season draft. He hasn’t rejoined the Saints. So it is no guarantee that St. Kilda will get him back.

  7. Wouldn’t Vaile give the victory speech if the Rodent loses but LNP wins, given that he’s deputy leader? Anyway, it’s not going to happen but Team Rodent must have considered what to do.

  12. bludgers, i have lurked on this site for a while but now’s the time to thank you all for bringing my pseps. education up to speed & also to say how entertaining its all been! i’ll be out doing my bit to bring the howard era to an end soon, but gotta say the person who described the pm’s speech at the npc this week as vogon poetry delivered what for me must be the best comment on the whole campaign 😉 great stuff. see you all later, here’s hoping!
    PS: thanks william & possum, of coourse. true stars all

  13. Re 482,

    Lindsay voter Says:

    November 24th, 2007 at 12:43 pm
    Have just done 4 hours of handing htv, will return later. Son of Labor guy who took the Daily Tele picture of Gary Clarke (Jackie Kelly’s husband) was handing out htv for Labor. My booth is a Liberal booth but quite heartened by some obviously Green and Labor supporters. Any exit polls anywhere?

    Sky will have exit polls from 4pm. Do not know if because the source is Sky that we can take them seriously or not? They might only report them selectively? 🙁

    Others will probably have exit polls as well, but we will here them there first.

  14. Just got back from handing out HTVs at Kingsford smith. The thing that struck me was how many people take ever brochure – lab, lib and green. I did a count and it was appoximately 70%. My natural inclination was to assume that these people have almost no political convictions and that there is therefore a large arbitrary soft vote. I’ve since been told that people are often just being polite. …Don’t know what others think?

  16. Just back from a two hour stint handing out Save our Senate fortune cookies and pencils at Charnwood (ACT).

    The two biggest groups of people, in my opinion, comprised those who had already made up their minds and took no material from anyone, and those who were happy to take the Get Up material and sympathetic to the cause; although there were still all too many only taking Liberal party material for my liking.

    We did have a big win though while me and hubby were there. Liberals had a huge ugly banner about the evils of wall to wall Labor running right across the front of the school, until the Greens and we Get Up people complained. Electoral officers said they couldn’t do anything because it was sufficiently far away from the booths, but that the ACT Government would probably act if anyone cared to complain. Did we what! Rangers came and made the Liberal man manning a table take it down. Yah booh sucks Lieberals!

  17. Voted below-the-line in the Senate, too. It was worth the effort of writing and checking 79 numbers, just to put Helen Coonan dead motherless last, a position usually reserved for the likes of Fred Nile or Pauline.

  18. How are you guys feeling?

    O.K. the serious mail:

    Betting with the bookmakers has closed including all seats betting, except Sportingbet who are still taking bets on the election winner upto the start of counting. Betfair is still operating – upto when one of the leaders concedes defeat.

    Sportingbet – ALP 1.30 / LIB 3.50
    Betfair – ALP 1.31 / 3.70

    Since observing the betting moves and volumes traded since yesterdays Newspoll, I am declaring that tonight we will have a new Prime Minister – Mr Rudd.

    The number of seats is not important.

    Declared by Centre at 11.50am.

  20. Has Malcolm Farr always been a goose? Right from the start, he has just refused to consider that Howard may lose. His piece today in the Terror has declared that Howard has shocked us all to retain office. Will he be in for a shock?

  22. Dave -[ lets hope they’re not premature celebratory beers (oops, noticed mine is empty, starting to get pessimistic again – time for another me thinks)]

    No – they are justified, deserved, timely, and cold.

    One thing this time I noticed at the booths is that there is no ‘killer’ placard from LNP like 2001 – “we will decide … etc ” (can’t remember 2004), so that was an extra comfort on the way to the fridge.

  23. Sea, based on my experience at handing out htv, the majority of people take all cards, it may be being polite or maybe it is just their quirky way of protecting their privacy on voting.

  25. voted absentee (for calwell) at a booth in isaacs – stax of people. feeling was pretty good. tried to persuade myself not to get to make a smartarse comment to the lib htv contingent, but couldn’t hold back on saying “No way known” to the bluerinse woman who offered the htv card. absentee voting is a great lurk – went right to the top of the queue. 5 hrs 8 mins to go…the suspense is killing me

  26. Marko, I wouldnt be too confident about a Cornes win. Boothby still contains many, many of the old Menzies and Playford Liberal Voters and has a very elderly population. It would be highly unlikely for a Labor win. I think there will be a swing against the Government. I did notice a lot of older men with Nick Zenophon how to vote cards. You know how older guys dont like nagging women ( re Ann Bresssington’s Attack )!!!!! I think Nick is going to do quite well. Boothby is changing though and I reckon will be very marginal as the years go by. Lots of young professsional couples moving in as the elderly move to retirement facilities.

  27. As a long suffering Richmond supporter (and South Sydney in the NRL) I am absolutely over the moon with our picks (Cotchin, Rance and Putt) in the draft. The day has started well and will finish even better.

  28. Just voted in Enfield (a Labor booth). More Labor people around, but the Libs were more vocal. Virginia Judge (state Labor MP for Strathfield) came down when I was just leaving and tried to do some campaigning.

    All in all, it’s pretty quiet now…

  29. When we voted in Chatswood the Labor HTV guy was in a Kevin07 shirt. Greens, Libs and Dems also there. No Chines signage though.

    My son wound me up by claiming he’d voted for Fred Nile’s lot and preferenced FF. He lives in N Sydney and said it was full on down there.

  30. MY ONLY WORRY IS

    that BOTH NSW AND VIC BOTH SWING BY 4% to 5 %

    which is the only mathematical way Howard could sneak in
    ie where the Labor votes went into wasteful seats

  31. Just voted in McMillan – absolutely royal blue ribbon Liberal booth.
    One Labor, one Lib handing out HTVs. Both friendly. Box of Greens literature and box of Family First.
    Spoke to the storekeeper, next door to the polling booth, afterwards as I was picking up the weekend paper.
    He said: “Labor’s gunna romp it in.” Reckons most couples had split down the middle – one Labor, one Lib.
    For our small town that’s a bloody miracle. Feeling happier already.
    I’ve told my partner I’ll let him out of the gun cupboard at 8.05pm – and only to get the gun out if Howard wins.
    Go Rudd. And Greens in the Senate.

  32. Been lurking for yonks looking at the analysis etc and finding it really fascinating. I think I am going to poach for lessons in Stats actually. 🙂 Quite a lot of really interesting takes on statistical analysis and what does it actually mean in real terms. I am also anxious about the election, on a personal level because it means I don’t have to do the HORRIBLE RQF system for publications. Its just an anal nightmare.

    As far as the libs are concerned I keep getting reminded of that line from the UK Tv series Red Dwarf.

    “Vote Fascist for another Glorious Decade of Total Law Enforcment!!!”
    “Become a government informer: betray your family and friends: Fabuolous Prizes to be won!!!”

    Seriously I can’t believe what this government has gotten away with and the way it has legitimated the most vicious racist fringe of Australian society on the back of scare campaign after scare campaign. It might be cynical of me but I think the biggest issue is simply that panic attacks and strident melodrama over race based politics has gotten passe.

    We will see. I think the melodrama scare campaign this election has been very shrill, unfocused and people simply get exhausted by constant theatrics.
    I’ve seen Howard and co try scare campaign after scare campaign and no one has bit this election. Its ultimately that which has led to it being so bizarrely unfocused and desperate. I think the libs thought they were on a perpetual vote winner like back in the Red Scare days. Seems to be paralell with the Americans.

    People are just tired and exhausted by it and want a simple government to manage services and the economy. On that front I think Rudd has done very well with his small target campaign. Much like Bracks in Victoria. Offers people a chance to relax from all the theatrics, melodrama and scare campaigns and get on with life.

  34. good morning everyone, and best wishes for the day. I’m writing from the UK where it’s getting later on Friday night, and the temperature is nudging 0 degrees.

    I have a quick question – does anyone know of election coverage that’s being streamed on the net? I’m going to up bright and early in the morning to follow the count, but I’d really love to find a stream (ABC??) to watch.

    Any thoughts?

  35. Sean @500. I reckon many ppl take all the HTVs so as to not give an indication of how they intend to vote, not necessarily that they haven’t already decided.

  38. Hey Basil, or RU, or Bluebottle. Do you have any local vibe on Slipper at Fisher? I’m hoping that if he gets rolled we see the headline,

    “Slipper gets the boot!”

    Nasty piece of work who appeared on the 7:30 Report in 01 claiming there’s be terrorists among the Boat people.

    On Leftist Piers, it is true. Gerard Henderson in one of his little feuds revealed that back in the Vietnam protest days he was nicknamed, “Hanoi Piers”. Piers was not impressed with that revelation which he thought was below the belt.

  39. did 2.5 of hours for ALP in strong Lib booth (56/44 last time) in ALP electorate. Quite a good reception and a number of voters, including older voters taking ONLY ALP and/or Green HTVs

  41. A report from the electorate of Canberra. We did our bit by delivering three more pokes in the eye to the rodent.

    Got out early and voted at the local community centre. Haven’t seen anything like it in my time voting (since 1980). The queue was huge, the vibe was solemn. No banter, no sausage sizzle, no carnival atmos. Like filing into church for a funeral service. Bunting was wall-to-wall LNP but the Greens had a big presence and a lot of people were taking HTVs from them. I reckon Humphries is in real trouble.

  43. Greetings from the Melbourne suburbs, fellow tragics. I can report that the masses were out to vote very early, there were already queues at some booths at 8.00 while we were still setting up Labor a-frames. John Howard’s face is nowhere to be seen on the Liberal material. The response to the Kevin07 bunting is very positive. I am feeling much more cheerful than I was yesterday after seeing the last Newspoll. Death to Murdoch press running dogs and their bogus polls, I say. Possum’s optimistic analysis over at Possum’s Polytix has cheered me up further. I am still convinced Labor will win, although I don’t think it will be a landslide. My October prediction of 80 seats is looking about right I think. More later perhaps.

  45. I was handing out for the greens. It was all very sedate. The only comment I got was from a guy who when offered the green HTV said: “do I look like I’ve had a lobotomy’ . The funny thing is, he actually did.

  46. I’m back from my nice walk! The Liberals had several Pedro pictures (non of Howard) and some posters claiming the ALP will wreck the Economy, while the ALP had several nice large pictures of Rudd but no pictures of Candidate, the ALP women was quite friendly while the Liberal ones were hung back in Sunny’s nice considering there was a lot of shade.

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