Newspoll and ACNielsen state by state

Newspoll’s state-by-state breakdowns are looking even noisier following the long-awaited narrowing, with Labor up in South Australia, down in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland, and through the floor in Western Australia. The ACNielsen poll has the swings at 7.7 per cent nationally (compared with 4.8 per cent in Newspoll), 8.1 per cent in NSW (4.2 per cent), 8.4 per cent in Victoria (4.0 per cent), 9.9 per cent in Queensland (9.1 per cent), 10.4 per cent in South Australia (11.4 per cent) and 3.1 per cent in Western Australia (-0.6 per cent). ACNielsen was conducted from a sample of 2071 voters from Monday to Wednesday, Newspoll’s from 2615 voters from Tuesday to Thursday.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

784 comments on “Newspoll and ACNielsen state by state”

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  2. Just got back from Moreton, looking good IMO.

    Kevin07 and your rights at work guys out in force, on balance I would say more Labor pamphlets than Lib but it’s hard to tell since most ppl just take all the pamphlets.

    Still, felt good about it.

  3. My mum tells me that the folklore is that early voting = mood for change. She also thinks that rainy day = mood for change because punters get angry that they have to go out in the rain……..

    Graeme – tks for the tip.

    Yass booth was 61 – 39 to Lib last time – that moron Alby Schultz got in.

    I will be interested to see the results this time – my sense is that it will be much closer.

    There were almost 1700 votes in the booth last time – assuming the same number of people voting at the booth this time that means that about 65% of people had voted by 11am. I’d say that is a cracker of an early turn out…….

  4. As if Labor are going to ban all fishing. It doesn’t even come close to passing the credibility test (to use a Ruddism).

  10. aj – think about it, and you’ll answer your own question. Do you know how many voters fish, many of whom are workers? Answer: election changing numbers. (That’s not to say it isn’t scientifically advisable, but that has nothing to do with what will happen)

  11. Just want to get a few people’s thoughts on whether I should wait until Kevins victory speech before I do my nudey run or straight after the rodent concedes. And would it be overdoing it if I did the helicopter?

  12. ltep – that’s what I said. I can’t remember Garrett coming out and saying this nor was anything on the website or in the papers. I told him that they were using the scare tactic to make you vote for them and it worked. Really, an enquiry should be held into these sort of tactics and they should be penalised.

  16. Will all the gorgeous chicks stop talking about what they’re wearing…

    I”M ONLY FLESH AND BONE! TAKE SOME PITY ON ME!!!!!

    (then again…..what was it again????)

  20. Julie,

    He would have gone to Ermington because it is notionally Labor – chance of a swing if he is seen there and shows he cares about the new areas of his electorate. Fat lot of good it will do him.

  22. Im in melbourne ports, already voted with a pre poll. Might wander down there shortly to see how things are playing out anyway. Will report back soon 🙂

  23. Ok, just put my 2 cents in at the local Bradfield booth. Mr/mrs smug lib voters there a plenty!! (what is it with lacoste ts and boaties?) I restrained myself, just. Not as exciting as it sounds over at Bennalong. Please, please, let social justice prevail tonight!

  25. Well I have gone and done my duty as a citizen. I voted in the seat of Boothby and I have never had to wait so long to vote. It seems everyone is very passionate about who they are going to vote for. I voted Green in both houses, as I have done so since they first appeared on the Ballot papers. I pray for the end of the Howard Government!

  29. Two interesting stats on the edge of Newspoll.

    1. Undecideds at 6%; at most 9% during the campaign. That includes every Liberal who thinks they might vote 1 Family First and vice versa; and every left of centre person osciallating between Green and Labor. Take away those who drift but within an ideological position (and aren’t swingers at all in compulsory preferential or TPP terms). Yet Sol Leibovic keeps running that silly line that a fifth or quarter of the electorate is genuinely undecided until late in the day.

    2. Coalition supporters are much more motivated by liking of the government, which somewhat belies the heavily negative campaign. Laborites are relatively more likely to be voting against the Coalition. Partly explained by the length/depth of distrust of Howard on the left. But surely also a factor of a sense that Rudd is either a work in progress, or not progressive at all.

  32. FINALLY I WILL MAKE MY PREDICTION

    I have been intrigued by Possum and others charts , graphs , trend lines etc
    They have done a wonderful job

    However my view is based SOLELY on where the primary votes are

    Even Newspoll shows Labor ahead on primaries in NSW , Vic , Q’ld and SA ***
    The minor party’s preferences ALSO will go to Labor at over a 60% of their vote
    So it is virtually impossible mathematically for labor to lose

    *WA primary’s favor Liberals but WA has the least ‘marginal’ Liberal OR Labor seats

    My tip is 81 seats , with a 2PP of 52.5%

    (IF its bigger win I would be more delighted )

  33. Has anyone considered that there is a chance we will wake up to Smirk as our PM tomorrow? What happens tonight if the Rodent loses his seat but the Libs get in? Who gives the victory speech?

  34. ***SORRY DIDNT COMPLETE my earlier post***

    My take on Newspoll. The table below only looks at Labor and compares the poll taken between 20-22.

    State – NSW
    Primary – 44
    TPP – 53
    Party benefiting – LIB. (In Primary)
    My take on NSW, I dont think Labor is going to win Benelong or Wentworth (despite the swing and the stats). Libs clawing back.

    State – VIC
    Primary – 47
    TPP – 53
    Party benefiting – Noboby (In primary)
    My take on VIC, I think they may win Latorbe.

    State – TAS
    Labor will win 2 seats – Braddon and Bass.

    State – SA
    Primary – 48
    TPP – 57
    Party benefiting – Noboby (In Primary).
    My take on SA, Labor will do well here.

    State – QLD
    Primary – 46
    TPP – 52
    Party benefiting – Greens (2); Other (1) (In Primary).
    My take on QLD, Labor will do well here. Libs did-not gain in the primary vote. TPP of 52 is a 9% swing.

    State – WA
    Primary – 37
    TPP – 44
    Party benefiting – Greens (2); 4% unaccounted for. (In Primary).
    My take on Wa, Labor will be trashed. Libs will gain Cowan and Swan. Swing towards the Libs.

    WA and NSW are affected by poor state Labor governments. There will be some back to Labor in NSW (around 4.5%). WA will be the bright spot for the Libs.

    My final prediction – This election will be won or lost within a 2 seat margin. Labor will get over the line (just) with 77 seats. John Howard will retain Benelong. Malcolm Turnbull will retain Wentworth. In Wentworth, the Greens vote will be high, but a large percentage these votes will preference the LIBs.

    Here is to hoping for a Happy Ending!! 🙂

  36. [ 451
    Julie Says:
    November 24th, 2007 at 12:34 pm

    Howard voted at Ermington West Public School ]

    Is it true that he was wearing a Kevin 07 TShirt?

  37. #446 – Your mum is dead right. The Chinese like to see their lunar new year to be rainy because that signals a good year ahead. It will be a year ahead politically

  38. Plowing through these comments, I get inspired that the common thread – a few loons aside – is that the ALP will win handsomely. Just voted at Annandale North Public School – a very long queue with one Lib HTV (as you’d expect in the heart of Tanya Plibersek’s seat), 4 Greens and 4 Labor. No Dems here either – Meg Lees should be turning in her grave (OK, I know she’s not dead, but how can they tell?) I am going to have some serious fun with all those a***h***** who gave me gyp after 2004 and predicted a coalition win in 07.

  39. Joffaboy at 328

    I got confused and thought I was on Saintsational instead of pollbludger for a second there.

    Great to see the G-Train back, a day watching the Saints wasn’t going to be the same without him skulking around the goal square never quite knowing what you are going to get from him….

    I’m a lot more relaxed today than last night. Its a beautiful day for the beach in Melb this afternoon an my wife and I have done a bit towards ridding this country of the morally bankrupt people that have formed govt over the past 11 years.

    Time to go for a swim, get home to watch Antony deliver us the good news and enjoy the celebratory drinks.

    Thanks William for this site, none of my friends are into politics so its fantastic to come on here and read through everyone’s opinions (even Glen’s). We live in a wonderful country and are very lucky

  40. I voted at 8.15am this morning at the Brunswick Trugo Club. Safe Labor seat of Wills, so it probably wouldn’t have mattered who I voted for, in the House of Reps. There was already a queue of people there when I arrived, although it is admittedly a fairly small booth… just three desks taking names, plus one for absentee.

  41. 466,

    Can’t speak for the others but I can speak for Glen in so much as I remember him saying yesterday he is handing out HTV today. Don’t remember what electorate but it ISN’T his own electorate.

  42. Have just done 4 hours of handing htv, will return later. Son of Labor guy who took the Daily Tele picture of Gary Clarke (Jackie Kelly’s husband) was handing out htv for Labor. My booth is a Liberal booth but quite heartened by some obviously Green and Labor supporters. Any exit polls anywhere?

  43. Just voted in North Sydney. A few lame “vote Joe” t-shirts, but well outnumbered by the ALP. Strong presence from the climate change and Greens. Saw LOTS of greens senate leaflets in hands, reps leaflets were about half and half I reckon. Interestingly, the 30s and 40s were mostly holding Libs, the 50s+ mostly holding Labor I thought.

    I saw Joe Hockey’s campaign van out yesterday morning, pulling down Mike Bailey posters. So I took the opportunity to discuss the issue at full volume with one of the Lib grots outside the polling station. He looked suiably chastened.

  44. 475 – Diogenes

    I reckon that Costello is in as much trouble today as Howard. We may wake up to a Parliament without either of them.

    That is, if I choose to believe Morgan F2F. 😉

  45. Diogenes @ 475

    [Has anyone considered that there is a chance we will wake up to Smirk as our PM tomorrow? What happens tonight if the Rodent loses his seat but the Libs get in? Who gives the victory speech?]

    Everyone did last night, but we’re over it now, and having our first celebratory beers.

  48. Well, just back from voting at Beecroft Public School (Berowra electorate).

    Sorry to have to report it was a depressing sea of smug-looking, Liberal-voting, we’re-alright-Jack, Jennys and Sallys, Nigels and Geoffreys.

    Hardly a Labor HTV to be seen and only one booth worker anyway. Two entrances at the school, so she had to sit outside the hall and hand HTVs out to people coming from both directions.

    And precious few of them there were too, she told me.

    I know this is Ruddock territory, but I’ve never seen it this quiet for Labor in my patch of Berowra. In fact at the last election we in Beecroft had a pretty good swing against Ruddock.

    Wherever the Tennis Mums and the Liberal Wets are, they weren’t at Beecroft Public School today.

    Overcast. Dreary. Liberal heartland. Much more so than I remember from the past 15 years here.

    I had actually been looking forward to the buzz… now thoroughly deflated.

  50. [ I reckon that Costello is in as much trouble today as Howard ]

    Even if he wins he’s seat is going to become a close marginal and he will be a very nervous man from now on.

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