Newspoll: 52-48

Sky News reports tomorrow’s Newspoll at 52-48. The Australian reports a sample size of 2614, but no primary votes. Normally you wouldn’t doubt the result with four polls telling you 52-48, 52-48, 54.5-45.5 and 57-43, but surely there’s some significance to the fact that the two closest polls of the year have come in the day before polling day.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,500 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48”

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  1. Concerning the betting agency odds moving towards the Coalition, I’d say it’s because I saw John Howard on some news programme – maybe channel 7 or 9, talking about how the bookies are wrong about his chances. Maybe he’s told his staff and supporters to go bet on him. Seriously, this could be the reason.

  2. the latest morgan poll has exactly the same primaries as the galaxy poll today but they have distributed the prefs differently and come up with something much more encouraging!!!

  3. I was 85 but I downgraded it to 80. My only concern is people like Ramsay calling it.

    LTEP – but there are some positions I wont take.

  4. Yes, before we enter the maelstrom, let me say its been a pleasure, bludgers.

    Until tomorrow evening.

    If anyone happens to be handing at Noble Park Primary School; come up and say hi. I’ll be one the Greens HTV cats.

  5. “smeghedd Says:
    November 24th, 2007 at 12:21 am
    here’s Alan Ramsey’s opening two paragraphs at the SMH online ….”

    And the bins are far more reliable than the published polls. He’s gone. They know it. He knows it.

  6. Now is the winter of our discontent
    Made glorious summer by this son of Queensland;
    And all the clouds that lour’d upon our house
    In the deep bosom of the ocean buried.
    Now are our brows bound with victorious wreaths;
    Our bruised arms hung up for monuments;
    Our stern alarums chang’d to merry meetings,
    Our dreadful marches to delightful measures.

  7. what is it hugh?

    Also i just looked back at the 1998 election where the alp got 50.98% of the vote. After looking at this there is NO way they will lose with 51.5% or higher.

    Any talk of this is hubris from the coalition supporters.

  8. Edward StJohn Says: “George you have no idea of how I have struggled with my conscience but strangely I sleep so well at night.”

    Actually, I don’t care how you’ve struggled, I really don’t care.

    The disgusting politics your side has engaged in over the past 11 years is vomit-inducing to any ethical person. You vote for them, you have them. They have never governed for me. And I don’t care how many have remained silent whilst struggling with their conscience while ticking Liberal at the ballot box.

    I have drawn a line, and I don’t care much to “agree to disagree” or “see your point of view”. You can’t see mine and I only wish to point out to others how despicable your side of politics is. Period.

  9. I’m off for a meeting, and no doubt you lot are off to bed soon.

    Go well everyone, and catch up tomorrow afternoon, after the polls close.

    To everyone working the booths tomorrow, for whatever party, I hope the weather is good for you, and that you are able to think up lightning-fast retorts to anyone who insults you. Have a laugh with the other side. Even flirt a little. May your scrutineering be water tight.

    I shall reserve any further spiteful partisan comments until tomorrow.

    Good night all.

  10. sloow eddie said – but there are some positions I wont take.

    come off it ! You are pretend to have standards – morals you are pretending to be EB on day release

  11. nath, I hope you’re not predicting a short, bloody, but “interesting” reign? Just joking, I have some hopes for Kevin. If he loosens up a bit and fires his minders, he could actually be a great PM. He just has to learn how to let go a bit more.

  12. Everyone was getting on so well when I left and now I’m back I find you’ve all got the knives out. Edward St John, what did you do to upset everyone?

  13. nath, you have just quoted D#ck the Sh#t! Don’t do it again, please, or the kingdom’s horse will enter my dreams. Try the St Crispin’s Day speech from Henry V – much more suitable if you are hoping for a Rudd win.

  14. Edward StJohn Says: “George you sound like you really need that education revolution!”

    That’s hilarious mate! You’ve reduced me to nothing from that! You win! Oh you are so good!

  15. [Everyone was getting on so well when I left and now I’m back I find you’ve all got the knives out. Edward St John, what did you do to upset everyone?]

    Had a go at Penny Wong because of her sexuality.

  16. [ Paul K I am innocent of all charges ]

    Of coarse you are Edward. All conservatives are a pure as the driven snow. I know because Howard told me so.

  17. Oh I dont think the Liberal party is concerned with homosexuality ShowsOn, after all it gave Australian its first homosexual prime minister.

    And from Dave we have the OGPU approach to political debate.

  18. Ms Twain, Richard III would have been one of the greatest kings of England if only he wasn’t such a cynical shit. A sort of JWH of his age. I think it’s a bit unfair to pan him over this one character flaw 😉

  19. Fair enough, nath. How about Portia’s quality of mercy speech from the Merchant of Venice? Kev can use it tomorrow night, after the Rodent’s concession.

  20. Nath,

    I think Richo said to reach the “top echelon” you have to be able to carry a schooner or a “pot” and hold your own in a boardroom.

    Neither party really has many people in that category.

  21. Anything between 80-85 ALP seats. I’ll go 84.

    William – thanks from me as well. Indispensable reading and keeping in the loop – otherwise would only have had the MSM. A great site.

    Thanks to all contributors who have made this so informative and entertaining. Ditto on the conservatives who contribute – agree sometimes, disagree sometimes, but that’s how a discussion should work. Blind partisanship works both ways – some of the knee-jerk insults to anything not fawning of the ALP here is pretty sad.

    I’ll be logging in at 6pm sharp Sydney time (9am for me – have told missus that I’m not available until mid-afternoon, hoping can get away earlier!).

    Wonder if there’s enough interested persons here suffering from electoral withdrawal in a couple of weeks to continue a discussion on US primaries & presential election? Hope so.

    Enjoy the vote tomorrow. Am sure Howard is gone. An era that had to end looks like it is finally ending. Brave new world awaits…

  22. SMH Ramsay

    Yesterday, in the nation’s Parliament, with hardly a politician to be seen anywhere, we got some election realism. Three rows of recycling bins, whacking big green ones with yellow lids. More than 300 of them.

    Where? In the basement corridor of the ministerial wing. The bins seemed a more apt commentary than all the desperate, last-minute Coalition windbaggery going on around the nation on what is about to descend on the Prime Minister after 33 years in public life and almost 12 years remaking Australia in his own miserable, disfigured image. They arrived two days ago and whoever they’re for, 48 hours before a single vote is cast today, you felt somebody, somewhere, finally got it right.

    Great stuff !

  23. [ I dont think the Liberal party is concerned with homosexuality ]

    The Libs only tolerate them in the closet. If they come out they are soon slapped down. Alan Jones is loved but he never publically admits to being gay.

  24. [Oh I dont think the Liberal party is concerned with homosexuality ShowsOn, after all it gave Australian its first homosexual prime minister.]

    I can’t recall mentioning the Liberal Party. I simply referred to what YOU wrote.

    Plus the Liberal Party have serious problems with homosexuality, they can’t stand the thought of homosexuals being allowed to marry, because they still have the archaic belief that marriage should be arbitrated by the government. That’s their nanny state mentality shining through.

  25. I dont think the Liberals (or at least the pre-Howard Liberals) cared about homosexuality as long it was kept firmly in the closet, I think the objection to McMahon was that he was a notorious leaker who could not be trusted, Tiberius with a telephone as Whitlam called him.

  26. Hugh Briss (1405) If you’re still around, I checked the Morgan site and no sign of the new figures you refer to. Where did you get them and can you provide any details?

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