ABC/Adelaide Uni poll: 51-49 in Boothby

ABC Adelaide has published a poll of 500 voters in Boothby, conducted by Adelaide University’s politics department, which has Liberal member Andrew Southcott leading Labor’s Nicole Cornes with 51.4 per cent of the two-party vote, compared with his 5.4 per cent margin from 2004. This figure was arrived at by asking voters about their preference intentions: using the probably more accurate method of following the last election results, the result was a narrower 50.5-49.5. Primary vote figures are 44.6 per cent per cent for Liberal, 37.3 per cent for Labor and 11.1 per cent for the Greens. The poll also covers Senate voting intention and has Nick Xenophon on 29.5 per cent – however, the poll was conducted on Monday and Wednesday and would not measure the effect of his unfortunately timed falling out with former colleague Ann Bressington.

UPDATE: Comments informs us that Adelaide Uni’s Clem McIntyre conceded the methodology here might have been a bit rough around the edges.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

59 comments on “ABC/Adelaide Uni poll: 51-49 in Boothby”

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  1. I’m a Makin voter, and there is a huge sense that Zappia is home and hosed. There is a lot of resentment towards Day and his HR Nicholls connection. Zappia is hugely popular among the green oriented voters because of his work on the Salisbury wetlands project and other environmental projects, overseen as Mayor. I predict an 11% swing in Makin.

  2. Irrespective of methodology, the Adelaide Uni poll might be close to the mark in Boothby. I can’t see either candidate winning comfortably.

  3. That Nicholson animation is harsh…

    I like it!

    On the Boothby matter, I’ve always said that Labor shot itself in the foot by preselecting Cornes. However, once she was in, there was no graceful way to get her out, so the only thing they could do was leave her there.

  4. Good luck to all my fellow south australian labor supporters and enjoy election day, don’t forget your sunscreen at the polling booth !

  5. Makin is close, much closer than polls are telling us. I’ve spoken to about 10 undecided voters from Makin this week. All have swung to the Libs in the last few hours. It was predicted the seat was lost in 2004.

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