ABC Adelaide has published a poll of 500 voters in Boothby, conducted by Adelaide University’s politics department, which has Liberal member Andrew Southcott leading Labor’s Nicole Cornes with 51.4 per cent of the two-party vote, compared with his 5.4 per cent margin from 2004. This figure was arrived at by asking voters about their preference intentions: using the probably more accurate method of following the last election results, the result was a narrower 50.5-49.5. Primary vote figures are 44.6 per cent per cent for Liberal, 37.3 per cent for Labor and 11.1 per cent for the Greens. The poll also covers Senate voting intention and has Nick Xenophon on 29.5 per cent however, the poll was conducted on Monday and Wednesday and would not measure the effect of his unfortunately timed falling out with former colleague Ann Bressington.
UPDATE: Comments informs us that Adelaide Uni’s Clem McIntyre conceded the methodology here might have been a bit rough around the edges.