ABC/Adelaide Uni poll: 51-49 in Boothby

ABC Adelaide has published a poll of 500 voters in Boothby, conducted by Adelaide University’s politics department, which has Liberal member Andrew Southcott leading Labor’s Nicole Cornes with 51.4 per cent of the two-party vote, compared with his 5.4 per cent margin from 2004. This figure was arrived at by asking voters about their preference intentions: using the probably more accurate method of following the last election results, the result was a narrower 50.5-49.5. Primary vote figures are 44.6 per cent per cent for Liberal, 37.3 per cent for Labor and 11.1 per cent for the Greens. The poll also covers Senate voting intention and has Nick Xenophon on 29.5 per cent – however, the poll was conducted on Monday and Wednesday and would not measure the effect of his unfortunately timed falling out with former colleague Ann Bressington.

UPDATE: Comments informs us that Adelaide Uni’s Clem McIntyre conceded the methodology here might have been a bit rough around the edges.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

59 comments on “ABC/Adelaide Uni poll: 51-49 in Boothby”

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  1. Jesus wept! I thought Nic was dog food. If this is like this in Boothby Pyne must be shi@@g bricks in Sturt. This would be a great buffer gainst the loss we’ll receive from the secessionist WA lot.

  2. After all the bad, i mean bad, press that she got and she is still at 49. you have to say this is a good achievement even if she loses.

  3. Nicole is not coming back. She didn’t even turn up for this morning’s ABC Radio candidate’s forum (well respected event) in Marion Cultural Centre in the heart of her electorate. Her minders are too scared she screws up on the last day of the campaign. This seat won’t fall because Nicole Cornes is a poor candidate. Meanwhile Bruce Hull, the man the ALP were tipped to select for the seat prior to Cornes been thrust upon them (by Treasurer Kevin Foley) spent the forum standing outside, handing out how-to-votes at the pre-polling booth … in a GREEN T-SHIRT. Greens vote will be high. Independent Ray McGhee showed at this morning’s forum that he was well out of his depth and doesn’t have a clue about big policy issues, he’ll be regretting his decision to quit Channel 9 for this ill-conceived bid for the top. Libs to hold this seat with a largely unchained margin of around 5%.

  4. I plugged the ABC’s senate figures into Antony Green’s calculator and got Lib-X-Lib-Lab-X-Lab. But it needs to be said that this *is* an urban electorate so X’s figures are sure to go down overall.

  5. Yes William, Clem said that it was a very basic poll, as far as I know students just rang up a bunch of people, both polls carried out early evening on two nights (60% on Monday and 40% on Wednesday). He said a margin of error of ‘4, 5 or 6%’.

    Also, if Labor failed to get a second senator (highly unlikely) it would cull star performer Penny Wong who was shunted down the ticket at the hands of union heavy Don Farrell (another exam of talent being kicked at the hands of unions), but this is all speculation as I expect Wong to be easily returned. The third Labor senator would appear unlikely and everyone has written off veteran Liberal Grant Chapman.

  6. The high green vote is not surprising to me; this is the old democrats heartland (at least part of the seat is). A lot of these ex-democrat voting types would never vote labor, but are pissed off with the liberals so they will park their vote somewhere. I wouldn’t be surprised if green preferences don’t flow quite as strongly for labor in this seat as some others. However, the highish green vote gives some optimism for Cornes’ chances.

  7. On the Xenophon issue, I think he’s had enough bad publicity to at least dent some of his vote, but all that means is his fellow group S member won’t have a chance. I guess it comes down to how much surplus he has.

  8. Labor’s 3rd candidate might be back in business after Xenophon’s troubles perhaps. Will keep us all guessing for the next week or two i suppose.

  9. Why the surprise at the high Green vote in Boothby? In the seat of Waite, the Greens polled 10% at the last State election. There are many Green Party members who live in the electorate and also many committed Greens voters. The Senate is far too difficult to predict in any way. People will have to see the figures from tomorrow night onwards. Xenophon may not get as many votes as people think. Word has got around town that he is splitting his preferences equally between The Greens and Family First. I know a number of people who wont take any chances and vote for the Greens directly. My only hope is that the Liberal Senator Grant Chapman wont be re-elected, one of the most conservative right-wing homophobes in the Federal Parliament.

  10. There is very little value in this poll. Nicole has no chance. Not turning up to the ABC Local debate was the nail in her coffin. The interviews with local voters in the local paper was a lot more revealing from a qualitative point of view. Many ALP voters resent Nicole’s candidacy.

    Boothby is quite a diverse electorate: moneyed ex-hippies voting Green, old-money elite voting Liberal, factory-working union members voting Labor. A phone poll here would have to be conducted very carefully to be of any use.

  11. Hi William,

    I enjoyed your seminar presentation this morning at UWA. I was the guy in the tie who asked about the effect of landlineless households on the accuracy of polling. Just thought I’d say hi!


  12. Nicole is Labor’s best candidate in SA because of her patent honesty, sincerity and hard work ethic and the fact that she is not a political apparatchik.

    Nick X will benefit from the unprovoked and gratuitous attack on him from the woman who owes him her place in parliament.

  13. I haven’t enjoyed what I’ve heard from Mia, but I hope she beats Pyne. I’ll be voting for Nicole here in Boothby tomorrow, but not necessarily liking it. I think Mia will get closer than Nicole. Everything Phil has said about Nicole is true, but she has failed to express that to the voters at large.

  14. Nick (aka mia) u always say that about mia, Pyne will win Nic, nicole has a chance, oddly enough it may all come down to Nicole, who has been sorely undermined by rejected left candidates. Nicole has far better ALP credentials than Mia I’m Afraid

  15. Therapy I would say ALP voters feel sorry for Nicole who has been monstered by the left via the local media, more ALP voter resent Mia and her background

  16. Last w/e I was on the hustings in a tourist spot in Sydney. Plenty of people had pre-polled, locals, intra-state and inter-state. Many said they had voted 1 Green 2 Labor. I think it’s just something people are doing this time round.

  17. I’m now predicting Libs to retain Makin, Boothby and Sturt. I would almost go out on a limb and say that Kingston is also not a guaranteed Labor gain. There will be a strong flow of Family First votes in the latter.

  18. Dave s Makin??? even with trish drapers negative vote from her boyfriend scandals, possible making it harder than it looks surely it couldn’t be?

  19. The betting shows Kingston. Wakefield and Makin gone, as they say, for all money.

    Boothby and Sturt are the electorates in contest in South Australia.

  20. Dave S. I work in Makin! Work Choices is a HUGE subject in Makin. The Liberal, Bob Day, is a multi- millionaire, who wants to make working people suffer even more. I have had a lot of feedback. People dont trust him and he will only represent his own interests and not those of the community in general. The huge placards that Day has around Makin , also shows he has ‘a small one’ !!!!! Get a grip about Family First Preference flows, the Greens will outpoll FF for sure in Kingston and Labor will get ALL of those. The Greens votes will be crucial to Labor winning government.

  21. Makin. I am polling Fairview Park tomorrow and I still think it’s tight. Nevertheless I still think it will be a 3% swing to Zappia unless there is a huge overnight swing back to Day (and Howard mind you.)

    And in three hours time I will be giving my tip.

    And a question:

    What involves giving out how to vote cards or scrutineering for a party on the day, since I am doing one or the other.

  22. 30
    Howard Hater Says:
    November 23rd, 2007 at 6:43 pm
    I’ll go out on a limb and predict both Mia Handsin and Nicole win tomorrow.

    I hope your right. I’ve put small bets on Nicole (Boothby), Mia (Sturt) and Maxine (Bennelong) together with Mike (North Sydney). That hopefully will keep my interest up in the night.

  23. The Speaker at 12.

    ‘She’s going to lose. Any Labor candidate who isn’t in front in the polls, and hasn’t been in front in a single one that I can remember, has no chance’.

    Converse is true, needless to say. Any Lib candidate etc…………..

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