Newspoll: 52-48

Sky News reports tomorrow’s Newspoll at 52-48. The Australian reports a sample size of 2614, but no primary votes. Normally you wouldn’t doubt the result with four polls telling you 52-48, 52-48, 54.5-45.5 and 57-43, but surely there’s some significance to the fact that the two closest polls of the year have come in the day before polling day.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,500 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48”

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  1. 1339
    Ptobias Says:
    November 24th, 2007 at 12:03 am
    It looks to be the 21/22 November Morgan phone poll, i.e. the one that was reported this morning:

    Gary Morgan says:

    “With a day to go, the ALP is set to win the Federal election. The final Morgan Poll will be conducted tonight and released on election morning — see http://www.roymorgan.com for full details.

    Any reason people are hardly mentioning the Morgan phone polls? They have been very consistent with themselves and other polls.

    The f2f are not much use but I would have thought a phone poll is a phone poll [unless you play with the sample weighting].

  2. [And what do you know about voters? Fail sociology 101 for gross oversimplification. Then again, that’s what you’re good at.]

    He failed psychology as well – he even still quotes Freud.

  3. Edward StJohn, you’re telling us to settle? Come on mate, it’s still a free country. don’t get all school teacher on us. Typical Liberal party born-to-rule a-hole.

  4. [Why go into politics if you dont like people? There does seem to be a lot of Nixonian type paranoids in the ALP in particular.]

    Hhahahahah what about Kevin Andrews?

  5. “Slow eddie” Says:

    “Dave – I dont mind you having a go at me but at least try and be witty in the way you go about it here at our on line community”

    You and your lot NO longer set the agenda. Your time has come and gone so get used to it – sunshine

  6. [ShowsOn, Andrews hes just a freak]

    I’m glad you agree.

    [in the sense he has spent way too much time in courtrooms and has lost all personality, Andrews that is ShowsOn.]

    He also lost all sense of morality.

  7. [Most hereditary peers are in the ALP. Look up a list for 1974 parliament and 2007 parliament if you doubt me.]

    They are not peers, they were democratically elected. If voters didn’t want them, they wouldn’t vote for them.

  8. It’s polling day folks – those of us using AEST anyway.

    Voter Boy – just logged on so not sure if you’ve given any previous reports. Have you managed to catch up with your insider friend today?

  9. Edward StJohn Says: “Most hereditary peers are in the ALP. Look up a list for 1974 parliament and 2007 parliament if you doubt me.”

    And now the history lessons. There is NOTHING your lot could teach me mate, nothing at all. Especially the way you guys want to rewrite history to fit your racist ideology.

  10. Union bashing again… Jesus have mercy on your poor jaded right wing ass. Are you
    feeling well ESJ or is it” take no prisoner time?”

  11. 352
    Edward StJohn Says:
    November 24th, 2007 at 12:07 am
    Why go into politics if you dont like people? There does seem to be a lot of Nixonian type paranoids in the ALP in particular.

    ESJ, how many times have you been told about verb-subject agreement. There DO (pl) seem…to be…paranoids (btw, not a word). 100 lines.

  12. “1361
    Edward StJohn Says:
    November 24th, 2007 at 12:10 am
    George,

    Most hereditary peers are in the ALP. Look up a list for 1974 parliament and 2007 parliament if you doubt me.”

    And most hereditary idiots, madmen and drunkards are in the Liberal Party. Look at the 2007 parliament if you doubt me.

  13. Mark LOL

    Rusted on LOL

    AG01 LOL

    George Dare to struggle dare to win!

    wyiswg – Types like Clinton and Hawke loved the human contact (and obviously too much of it)

  14. no such thing as too much ESJ, as long as you keep the quality up.

    But let’s get back to the Big Poll – have you made a numbers prediction that I missed?

  15. Edward StJohn Says: “George Dare to struggle dare to win!”

    Are you secretly a member of a union? Cause I can’t see you calling that line out while sipping your port, all dressed up in your smoking jacket and cravat.

  16. # 1361 – slow eddie

    The one that stands out is the idiot son of the adelaide so called hi-so – lord downer of bagdad – how many gallons of blood has he and coward howard got on their hands ?

    When did howard or downer volunteer for military service or put their children in the line of fire ?

    Cowards all of them unless other peoples children are involved

  17. “1367
    Darn Says:
    November 24th, 2007 at 12:11 am
    It’s polling day folks – those of us using AEST anyway.

    Voter Boy – just logged on so not sure if you’ve given any previous reports. Have you managed to catch up with your insider friend today?”

    No, as Sunny Jim (aka LTEP) as noted, my mate’s girlfriend told me that he was at an office function, which she described as a ‘wake’.

    I’m still v. confident, though, for what it’s worth, as my previous comments on this thread should indicate.

    All the best,
    VBOTW

  18. Eddies just making the most of his opportunities given all the attention he’ s getting. Calling him a racist, sexist, Tory scumbag is sticks and stones and a bit uncalled for. For him it twould be far worse to be ignored.

  19. It’s gonna be a shellacking. Howard will concede before 10pm. Antony will call it just after the west closes, or maybe a bit earlier. Bon nuit, and sweet dreams to you all.

  20. Wyiswyg – 80 seats to Labor.

    The real trots seem to come out after midnight, Dave and George, what are you sparts?

    TC – am I really that attention seeking? I think there is a little exhibionist in all of us on this blog?

  21. William, I only discovered this blog a couple of months back, and have become a compulsive viewer (and very occasional poster). I would like to thank you so much for providing this space; your mighty work and investment is much appreciated. I would also like to thank most everyone who posts here; for your perspicacity, enthusiasm, knowledge, poll interpretations and sheer stickability. A six week lead up to the election seemed an eternity at the outset, especially as we have been in election mode for almost a year, but this blog made it that much more bearable, indeed, utterly intriguing, to a point that the time has actually flown by. Thanks all.

    For me, Howard has always been a creepy, dishonest little blighter – ever since his ‘fistful of dollars’ days. I fervently hope he is done like a dinner tomorrow, he so deserves it, but if not, we live to fight another day…..

  22. Hi Guys,

    Have internal polling from Liberals (but I vote Labor)

    It is pretty much looking really ugly for Labor in NSW and QLD – big (sudden) move back to the Liberals.

  23. Kroger, Minchin, Robb and Stone. All evil tossers in the liberal “engine room” over the past 11 years and more. They have stolen the soul of the Australian Government. God I would love to be a fly on the wall in the Melbourne Club on Saturday night when the Silver Tails are choking on their G&T’s.

  24. FOR the past 11 years, Prime Minister John Howard has been fond of reminding us of his favourite Australian traditions and catchphrases. The so-called Aussie values he believes have come to define us such as a fair go, mateship and the Gallipoli spirit.

    They’ve been curious, male-oriented choices wrapped for the most part in empty rhetoric that has served to divide, not unite, us and heralded a zealous campaign to treat philosophical, intellectual and cultural vigour as if it were a plague.

    Indeed, one of the PM’s self-proclaimed triumphs was to oversee the eradication of another much-touted Howard catchphrase — political correctness. Whatever that actually means, we apparently don’t have it in Australia any more, much to the PM’s delight.

    Read the rest of Tracee Hutchison’s piece: http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/let-this-be-an-epitaph-for-a-man-of-shame/2007/11/23/1195753305555.html

  25. here’s Alan Ramsey’s opening two paragraphs at the SMH online ….

    “The end of the line. Remember that heading in the Herald a few weeks back, after one of the opinion polls bumped up the Government’s lousy standing a point or two? “Lazarus stirs”, it said optimistically of John Howard. Wrong. It was just the flies moving. Yesterday, in the nation’s Parliament, with hardly a politician to be seen anywhere, we got some election realism. Three rows of recycling bins, whacking big green ones with yellow lids. More than 300 of them.

    Where? In the basement corridor of the ministerial wing. The bins seemed a more apt commentary than all the desperate, last-minute Coalition windbaggery going on around the nation on what is about to descend on the Prime Minister after 33 years in public life and almost 12 years remaking Australia in his own miserable, disfigured image. They arrived two days ago and whoever they’re for, 48 hours before a single vote is cast today, you felt somebody, somewhere, finally got it right.”

    Full article here : http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/recycled-rejected-and-right-off-the-rails/2007/11/23/1195753306675.html

  26. dave, be kind to Dolly Downer, he’s suffering genetic damage not of his own making… not quite the breeding to be a true Hooray Henry, but he clearly has aspirations for the next generation or so

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