Newspoll: 52-48

Sky News reports tomorrow’s Newspoll at 52-48. The Australian reports a sample size of 2614, but no primary votes. Normally you wouldn’t doubt the result with four polls telling you 52-48, 52-48, 54.5-45.5 and 57-43, but surely there’s some significance to the fact that the two closest polls of the year have come in the day before polling day.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,500 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48”

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  1. Well this is the last Newspoll, and considering that last time round, Newspoll favoured Labor by 2.7 points, it puts Howard in the lead on 2pp, and will romp home to victory.

  2. So 3 Pollsters show a 2% drop to ALP in one week

    IF they are right , then 9 months polling was absolutely useless and MISLEADING

    Absolutely disgusted and sad

  3. Newspoll uses the fixed 69/31 ratio for distributing preferences. Labor would probably pick up at least 75% or more of Green preferences plus some others. So it’s probably more like 54/46.

  4. The simple fact is, the Coalition is out of it.

    The only two possible scenarios are:

    1) Comfortable ALP win

    2) Crushing ALP win.

    Reminder to all: John Howard did NOT campaign today in Leichart, held on a 10% margin, because this one will be tight.

  5. So, 4 poll average is the best predictor

    ACN 57 = ALP win
    Galaxy 52 = ALP win
    Morgan 54.5 = ALP win
    Newspoll 52 = ALP win

    Average = 53.87 a swing of over 6% from 2004
    Bring it on!

  6. Oh smeg.

    This is exactly what JWH needed – a poll which could be spun to give the electorate the feeling that by voting for him, they are backing a winner.

    Smeg. I’m going to have a word with the “analyst” of Newspoll….

  7. That’s it? Cliffhanger, days of counting, court of disputed returns? I guess they have to sell papers but after the build up this is a serious let down. Average of polls must be about 54 ALP – no change

  8. [Well this is the last Newspoll, and considering that last time round, Newspoll favoured Labor by 2.7 points, it puts Howard in the lead on 2pp, and will romp home to victory.]

    What a shame they’ve sorted out their dodgy preference allocation from last time.

  9. Bahahaaa! I cant wait to see your faces tomorrow when Rudd romps it. 🙂

    So cruel of Newspoll to do this to you. And actually, its 52-48. Nothing new, another poll showing ALP will win.

    I personally think elements of the Oz public ARE dumb enough that Howard will get a 1% kick out of Lindsay gate. Usual grubby trick – but to no avail.

    It wont save your hides Saturday!

  10. I think John, you are falling into the same trap we “lefties” are falling into. You’ve been so use to seeing mid to high 50’s for Labor’s TPP that you view 52 as being bad for Labor and 48 being good for the coalition this far out from the election. Hell, that is a loss for your side John.

  11. MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE MOE

  12. With ACN disappearing in one direction and Galaxy and Newspoll heading in the other, Morgan musn’t be able to believe his luck…

  13. The media narrative tonight and tomorrow morning, unfortunately, will be:

    Howard is making a potentially remarkable comeback in the very last moments of the campaign. Sad, but true, nothwithstanding the true import of the poll, which is not clear yet, given no primary etc.

  14. Nostro: Nielsen has got it pretty much right for the last 3 elections.
    David Briggs must be suddenly doing Newspoll as well.
    Or, they’ve oversampled Western Australia for some strange reason.

  15. Ron Brown (15) I told you earlier today that Morgan DOESN”T show a 2% drop in the ALP primary. Their phone poll at the beginning of the campaign was 45% ALP. Now it is 44.5% ALP. Also it’s much bigger face to face poll, which always has a higher ALP primary than its phone polls, is still to come tomorrow. Try to get a grip man.

  16. 8
    brad Says:
    November 23rd, 2007 at 4:05 pm
    whats happening on the betting markets?

    Well at least now they can gets some bets on the LNP.

    Nice to have two independent pollsters around.

    This poll result is of course not credible except for being moe and, not consistent. You will see 54/46 tomorrow – and Rudd is out there still tring to pick up those 10% seats.

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