Newspoll: 52-48

Sky News reports tomorrow’s Newspoll at 52-48. The Australian reports a sample size of 2614, but no primary votes. Normally you wouldn’t doubt the result with four polls telling you 52-48, 52-48, 54.5-45.5 and 57-43, but surely there’s some significance to the fact that the two closest polls of the year have come in the day before polling day.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,500 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48”

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  3. The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!The Narrowing!

  5. Jason Wood in La Trobe must be in trouble. Some old duck (probably his mum) standing on the side of the road with a lib sign.

  6. 1. Why is Geoffery Rush commenting on the election on Sky?

    2. Any suggestions on what the big red banner of Defence Chief statement at 4:30 is going to be about?

  11. I am eminently happy with 52:48. Frightens the waverers back into line.

    You Lib supporters just don’t know what’s coming.

  18. I am praying it’s not a troop death – I have a mate serving o/s. A troop death on election eve – surely could not bode well for Howard?

  20. best news all day… you lot got me all worked up for the last hour about impending “narrowing”… this is a great result.. it is well within MOE…the only independent poller is ACN and they have the best methodology (whether it will be accurate who knows but that is the case) .. . the average of the polls suggests well over 53… which is landslide territory…

  22. Yes Asanque, so we have AC outlyer at 57, a dodgy Morgan phone poll at 55-45 and 2 polls at 52-48…hmmm either way 2 polling companies are wrong.

    Still id rather it be 52-48 than 58-42.

    So from 61/39 to 52-48 Howie has done well to come back but its anybodies guess who’ll win tomorrow.

  25. Grover. I think someone mentioned a death in Afghanistan.

    Flash. Friday night is the lowest point in the news cycle. everyone is out at the pub, or taking kids to friends’ houses, or having people over for dinner.. etc. no impact.

  28. Something is really f’ed up here. ACN has a poll that is 57/43 and a MOE of about 2%, and Newspoll has a 52/48 with a MOE of 2%. These don’t overlap. Only one to overlap wan others is Morgan.

  30. Pamhplettgate will only aid coalition, I’m afraid. But too late.

    Its really well poised for a very satisfying night: ALP will win easily, by 830pm, and if that aint good enough: look at the ridiculous contortions the GG are in!

    backing ALP at the last mo, after a full year of scandalously stupid pro-government spin, then spinning this poll (which shows ALP winning) as a last minute reprieve! Oh boy. This is gonna be good.

    Ship the eggs in. Its gonna be a long messy breakfast on Sunday.

  35. I think in fact the worst result long-term for the Libs would be Labor 76, Ind 2, LNP 72. This is because the fewest of the current bunch would be swept away – there would be much gnashing of teeth over things like the Lindsay pamphlets, the Costello “handover” etc. Howard might still be there causing problems. This was the pattern of several states – NSW 95, Qld 98, Vic 99 – followed by massive Labor wins. I think a Coalition wipe-out is probably better for them in the long term – gets rid of more “deadwood”.

    Or how about ALP 75, Ind 2, LNP 73 – Bob Katter / Tony Windsor could be speaker and wouldn’t either of them just love that!

  39. The Australian reports:

    “Newspoll’s two-party preferred figure, based on preference flows at the 2004 election, has the Labor Party in front by 52 per cent to the Coalition’s 48 per cent”

    How does this compare to 2pp this election?

  40. 😆

    Reactions to this poll from both “sides” is quite funny. The poll itself is quite ho-hum. It’s possible the Coalition may still win, but two 52-48 polls not in their favour is piss weak evidence and I’m not going to worry about something that’s not likely to eventuate.

  42. This movement defies all logic (MOE considerations notwithstanding). This last week as been a disaster for the coalition as was the previous week. Are we to believe that campaign has had no effect whatsoever??

  43. Rejoice 28 hours left and no more Howard govt.
    The 52:48 2pp is just for the loser libs to buy the friggin newspaper and read about the narrowing. Had they been more realistic like Nielson or Morgan Uncle rupes papers wouldn’t have sold as well

  44. Yet another poll showing Labor will win. Very reassuring. When I see a single poll or analyst showing a Labor loss, I’ll start worrying. In the words of the Bard;
    Banquo: It will be rain tonight
    First murderer: Let it come down

  46. Well I guess that’s it then.

    Every poll conducted since Rudd was elected has Labor at least 4 points ahead.

    And the Liberals are ecstatic? How come they’re still $4.50?

    For them it’s a bit like the excitement of watching the Lotto balls coming up. You figure you’re in with a chance but really, deep down, you know it’s not going to happen.

  48. When was the Newspoll taken? Shanahan’s story refers to final 72 hours being a cliffhanger – does this mean it was taken 3 days out?

  50. The Australian Newspoll – will have to wait until tomorrow to find out the primary votes.

    Ho Hum – rodents still going down 🙂

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