Morgan: 54.5-45.5

Roy Morgan has released a phone survey of 1670 voters including 1025 in hand-picked Coalition marginals. It shows Labor with an overall lead of 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, or 46.5 per cent to 40 per cent on the primary vote. The picture is somewhat better for the Coalition in the marginals, where the swing to Labor is 5.2 per cent compared with 7.2 per cent overall. Morgan aren’t done yet: the accompanying release tells us “the final Morgan Poll will be conducted tonight and released on election morning”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,119 comments on “Morgan: 54.5-45.5”

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  1. Nostradamus – you are an imposter – most likely a daemon.
    I have channelled the real Nostradamus and this is what he has to say :

    1. According to Nostradamus LNP 61: ALP 87, IND2
    Quatrain 34 – Anno Domini – 2nd Millennium

    Verse 16:
    In the distant southern great land
    The princely serpent with wavering tongue shall rise,
    The wheelwright’s son of complete ordinariness,
    Will vanquish the noveau proletariat – his name : Johward

    Verse 17:
    For a decade and 1, he will rule unchallenged;
    Subservient only to a distant King and Queen of expired empire
    He will banish the wretched moor on the water to the desolate land
    Denial of world heating with fear and greed he shall rule
    With new tax the proletariat will feast on Pork and be happy,

    Verse 18
    From the rural and oriental Rudvin shall rise with Sun Tzu,
    Of similar blandness with difference shall decimate Joward’s forces to 3 score + 1,
    He will control the Balded one 180 degrees on weather,
    Mercury’s servant Red Max will join Rudvin and lance Joward’s heart in Lono-bene
    Held in high esteem, Joward’s legacy tarnished thereafter

  2. Steph,

    Please don’t worry.

    The AUstralian people will have the good sense to return a Government that has delivered economic prosperity and a mainstream cultural and social agenda for a decade plus.

  3. Grover at 1083

    Just think of 1996 election- in reverse! The long term poll trend was right then, and it will be right this time, ie Labor primary 47-48%, TPP 54-55%.

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