Morgan: 54.5-45.5

Roy Morgan has released a phone survey of 1670 voters including 1025 in hand-picked Coalition marginals. It shows Labor with an overall lead of 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, or 46.5 per cent to 40 per cent on the primary vote. The picture is somewhat better for the Coalition in the marginals, where the swing to Labor is 5.2 per cent compared with 7.2 per cent overall. Morgan aren’t done yet: the accompanying release tells us “the final Morgan Poll will be conducted tonight and released on election morning”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,119 comments on “Morgan: 54.5-45.5”

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  1. Friday night polls … not that I have ever been polled, but I’m normally not at home on a Friday night. Wouldn’t this be the case for a lot of Australian working families, sorry, people?

  2. The 54.5-45.5 TPP sounds realistic nationwide, but to me perhaps a little optimistic for Coalition marginal seats. Mind you with this week on the campaign being a bad one for the Coalition, I wouldn’t be surprised if there has been a further swing to Labor in the Coalition marginals.

    Anyway after the last couple of weeks I’d like to revise my election predictions.
    I’ll be slightly more optimistic than I was a few weeks ago and say TPP of 54-46 in Labor’s favour, primary support of 46% for Labor and 42% for the Coalition and a seat count of 83 for Labor, 65 for Coalition and 2 Independents.

    The 23 seats that Labor will win off the Coalition are:

    NSW (7) = Bennelong (by a very narrow margin), Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Lindsay, Macquarie – held by a Liberal MP although it is a Labor seat on paper (or Parramatta – which is on paper a Liberal seat), Page, Robertson

    Vic (3) = Corangamite, Deakin, La Trobe

    Qld (6) = Blair, Bonner, Bowman, Herbert, Moreton, Petrie

    WA (1) = Hasluck

    SA (3) = Kingston, Makin, Wakefield,

    Tas (2) = Bass, Braddon

    NT (1) = Solomon

  3. Ooops … I’ve misread the poll – 54.5-45.5 TPP is nationwide in the Morgan poll.That sounds like quite a sensible TPP for a Morgan poll which in the past has overstated Labor’s TPP. It’s interesting is now being the most favourable pre-election poll for Labor!

  4. Ooops … I’ve misread the poll – 54.5-45.5 TPP is nationwide in the Morgan poll.That sounds like quite a sensible TPP for a Morgan poll which in the past has overstated Labor’s TPP. It’s interesting that ACN (which overstated the Coalition’s TPP just before the 2004 election) rather than Morgan is now the most favourable pre-election poll for Labor!

  5. Morning Kiwipundit,

    INteresting point, Morgan does tend to overstate the ALP position, sometimes by up to 2%.

    This Morgan number today (54.5 minus 2 = 52.5) supports the Galaxy number more than the AC neilson number.

    When was the last time AC Neislon threw in an outlier? sheesh!!!

  6. That swing distribution beautiful. Here’s hoping that the marginals are close but get over the line, saving the big swings for further up the pendulum.

  10. Hi Lord D,

    So my only comfort is that Morgan shows the L-NP have picked 1.5-2% in just one week?

    would this poll support Neilson or Galaxy?

  11. Actuallu, just looked more closely at the Morgan primary for the L-NP

    They report it as 40.5 (4)… Morgan has given the National party (4) only 3 times since the last election

  13. Galaxy appear to have shot themselves in the foot. For such a young and brash polling organisation I wonder whether they will be able to survive after the election. Even if Morgan is splitting the difference between AC Nielsen and Galaxy and has it right which I would say they do. I suggest Galaxy will come off as grossly getting it wrong whereas ACN will just be seen as picking it on the higher side of the result and forgiven because they have been largely on track for the last year or so.

  14. The Oz editorial today says both Galaxy and Newspoll (still polling) show the government is “coming home strongly”. Hope it’s a landslide but my original forecast still stands: two seats either way.

  16. David Briggs from Galaxy on 702 ABC radio at approx. 6:40am talking about “THE NARROWING” this morning. One thing he said was that whilst a lot of people said they would like to vote for Rudd they think John Howard has been doing such a good job that they will vote for him again. He then concluded by having a bet each way and declaring that the ALP will probably win with about 17 or 18 seats.

  18. I doubt that the Morgan poll’s overall figure of 54.5 has any validity. The sample of 1670 voters included 1025 in “hand picked Coalition marginals”. I would dispute therefore that the sample is an accurate representation of the whole population.

    Also worth noting is that if the swing in the coalition marginals is 5.2% and the overall swing is 7.2% then the swing in the remaining seats must be 10.4%.

  22. One thing about polls and the Nationals, who seem understated constantly.
    Everyone keeps saying that this doesn’t matter because the Coalition sample is right overall. Do we know this?

  24. Unicorn,
    They might have weighted the overall average for the sample by electorate. So the swing outside the marginals might be a bit lower than that.

  25. AnthonyL @ 12,
    We’re so close to the big day that I’ll reserve judgment on Galaxy – after all, if Labor gets less than (say) 80 seats, Galaxy will be geniuses.
    They’re certainly a bit “out there” – I’d have to agree with you on that.

  27. mccabe gave the week to labor!

    though she did say that galaxy is correct cos she works closely with briggs????

    wonder if lindsaygate will run hot in the news today

  29. Even now he can’t help himself. See post below in OzElection2007

    Earlier, at the Riverlink shopping centre in Ipswich, in the electorate of Blair, Mr Howard got a heroes welcome – from a five year old.

    “He’s a hero!” cried Benjamin Choat before the PM gave him a giant hug.

    “I love John Howard,” called Ben’s sister Charlotte, 10, before the PM gave her the same treatment.

    Ben and Charlotte’s father, Sean said he’d definitely be voting for the Coalition, citing economic stability as his No. 1 reason.

    Now being a compulsive googler I could not resist slapping the name Sean Choat into the spider web and seeing what flew out the other end:

    http://elections.nationalforum.com.au/c … 02987.html
    http://www.ecq.qld.gov.au/elections/sta … date3.html

  33. I don’t like these rumours of a bad Newspoll.

    Despite yesterday I still don’t feel very confident at all. I’m sticking to my 51.7/48.3 2PP prediction.

    Hopefully that turns out to be enough to get the ALP over the line.

  34. Coast poll upset is on the cards
    12:00a.m. 23 November 2007

    A random poll taken this week shows Labor could come close to claiming a safe Sunshine Coast Liberal seat tomorrow.

    The Daily poll, conducted in Fisher over three days, showed Labor’s Darrell Main with 41.5% of the two-party preferred vote (???). The sitting member, Liberal Peter Slipper, had 43.5%.

    Fifteen percent of voters were undecided.

    Mr Slipper won the seat with a margin of 11% in 2004.

  35. In 2004 the final four poll average was almost exactly spot on.

    So far the final average Galaxy, ACN and Morgan has Labor at 54.5. If Newspoll has Labor at 52 then the final 4 average at a shade under 54. If Newspoll has Labor at 53 then the final 4 average is a shade over 54.

    54 it will be. That’s 90 seats or so.

    But as I have said repeatedly, worst case 52 still delivers a comfortable Labor victory. The only time it ever “goes down to the wire”, “is too close to call” etc is when one party is on 50 point something and the other is on 49 point something.

  36. Dolly’s on RN Breakfast. Says he was going round the pubs in his electorate last night. Now Adeleaide beer is errr… questionable at the best of times but that accent would have curdled it quick smart.

  37. I am quietly confident that it will be around 56/57 – 44/43. Peter Hartcher’s comments in today’s SMH, where ACNielsen validated its polling by running a parallel poll (albeit an online poll) leads me to this conclusion.

    Enjoy yourselves, as I will tomorrow night.

  40. Is it just me? I count myself to be a tolerant person who would hear out other peoples opinions even if they differ from my political point of view.
    But these days especially the last fortnight I just switch off all together when I hear Howard & Costello on audio. Its painful.
    Are other Australians feeling that too? Is its a reflection on how most of us feel?

    I guess the only thing I only want to hear from Howard is a concession speech & the loss of his seat!

  43. Is anyone else (ALP voters that is) getting a little jumpy? You have to admit the outcome has gone from a sure thing to having to justify why a certain poll is “wrong”. I have a feeling this is going to be a lot closer than most people think.

  44. Another rock solid poll, everything points to the win, I predict it will actually be higher on 57-43 during the leaflet fallout amongst other things.

    Kevin Rudd – Prime Minister, just one more sleep and that will be a reality.

  45. 42 mr awesome Galaxy does push polling, they asked a series of questions favourable to the government first. According to people on this site who were polled. Then the 4th question is who you will vote for.

  47. Aussieguru01 @ 39, like you I think a lot of the electorate is sick and tired of the campaign and the Libs in particular, there is a limit to how many trashy adds people will tolerate before they switch off. So the strategy of a long campaign that would wear Labor down has backfired and they have worn the electorate down instead.

  48. I am confident that ACN has it right. It has been 55/45 all year. Then we have had a Rate rise, Abbott’s IR gaffe, Campaign launches and now the pamphlet fiasco. They have to be worth a couple of percent.

    Long live King Kev.
    All hail the king…

  50. Chris B, why would Galaxy (& ACN for that matter) be happy to produce a poll which they thought was an inaccurate representation of true voting intentions?

    When it’s your last poll for the campaign, surely you want to make sure you get it right. You reputation for the next 3 years hangs on it – that’s been the reason for Morgan’s demise in the mainstream press.

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