Roy Morgan has released a phone survey of 1670 voters including 1025 in hand-picked Coalition marginals. It shows Labor with an overall lead of 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, or 46.5 per cent to 40 per cent on the primary vote. The picture is somewhat better for the Coalition in the marginals, where the swing to Labor is 5.2 per cent compared with 7.2 per cent overall. Morgan aren’t done yet: the accompanying release tells us “the final Morgan Poll will be conducted tonight and released on election morning”.
Stop panicking folks. Given the MOE for each of ACN, Galaxy, Morgan and Newspoll they can all be right (within their range). However, the three higher polls lowest levels based on MOE are higher than Galaxy’s mid point. This indicates the Galaxy is likely to go to the higher end of it’s MOE. Hence the figure of 54:46 is much more statistically accurate than any other. A win of about 30 seats for the ALP.
No one has to assume any polls are wrong or biased. But since they each ask a sample of people they can only be right within a certain range. The average of the polls is more likely to predict the outcome than any single poll.
(Exlude Morgan F2F and Nielsen online fron the average. They are not comparable to the four major polls.)
Well, Murdoch Tabloid TV Skynews website has a whole new way of interpreting polls:
They say in their introductory paragraph reporting the Galaxy 52-48 to Labor and the ACN 57-43 to Labor that these two polls are showing “varying indications of who will win”. Gobsmackingly dishonest journalism, even by Skynews low standards.
Whoever wrote that should contact the incumbent and Lib candidate in Lindsay and get a job writing fake pamphlets.
Heres a good read
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/100-reasons-rudd-is-in-like-flynn/2007/11/22/1195753249787.html
Hi everyone – it’s the inverse narrowing!
Thanks Aussieguru01 @ 53, interesting read. I like the “ahead in 100 consecutive polls”
If Galaxy has engaged in push polling then that is a disgrace. That is blatant bias which has most likely been done to script a narrative about Howard coming back and trying to make it acceptable again to vote Liberal. Overall, I think for everyone who changes their vote one way because of this poll there will be another who changes it the other way.
Jumpy about the ALP’s prospects tomorrow ??? …
No.
Books should be written about the Howard government’s re-election campaign. I can even suggest a few titles … how about “Failure to Launch” or maybe even “Campaigning for Dummies – 101 things you should NEVER do”.
The Libs have spent most of this year trying to drive around a corner by staring straight at the big gum tree (and annihilation) at the bend.
Time’s up people.
Give me my little pencil, point me to the cardboard box polling station, I’m ready to cast off the dead skunk that has been hanging around the neck of this nation for 11 years.
ratcatcher Says: “Jumpy about the ALP’s prospects tomorrow ??? …”
Not for a second ratcatcher!
Gary Morgan is at it again.
“ALP Set To Win Close Election” but the headline is 54.5/46.5??
What’s close about this (Antony’s calc says 54.5% gives 91 to Labor)?
Labor set to win an extra 31 seats and it’s close? Please, Gary.
Also the hard to reconcile ““John Howard should retain Bennelong and Malcolm Turnbull Wentworth”.
Yet there were only “843 electors in the 22 L-NP marginal seats” is his marginal sample.
Does this mean he polled 38 people in each of the 22 electorates and then comes to the outrageous conclusion that JH and MT are safe?
Or does it mean he polled more people in Bennelong and Wentworth – thereby polling only a handful in the other 20 seats? Be nice to know if this was done.
Or does it mean Gary Morgan took all of the 22 seats, looked at the overall swing then concluded that Bennelong and Wentworth were safe for the Libs? This can’t be true because both those seats are held by less than the 5.2% swing stated.
Or does he just make it up.
Gary Morgan habitually comments on his own polling to make it reflect current issues and makes conclusions not supported by the data. Highly dubious considering the margin of error.
But I guess he owns it.
I think the problem is one of perception. Even if 52-48 is right, that’s GREAT for Labor supporters. But we’ve become used to 55-45 and so 52-48 doesn’t feel so good.
There has been a narrowing since the campaign started, but only enough to reduce the annihilation to a solid trouncing. Breathe deep and take the election into your own hands: convince a neighbour!!!
Am I right in assuming that the safest way to go is to ask people where they would direct their preferences?
If so, the ACN should really be 56-44 which makes a 53 or 54 in it’s MoE. I think around 54 probably seems more reasonable than 57.
A Coalition victory at this stage would be unbearable and would leave us all in the dark for the 2010/2011 election as the polls would not be able to be believed again.
Another good read –
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/national/pm-needs-a-miracle/2007/11/22/1195753249705.html
John Hewson in the AFR is predicting a Labor margin of 3-7 seats ie 78-82 seats.
Kevin Rudd is writing off the unions in the Australian this morning – “not my concern if they live or die”.
Looks like we are going to get Howardism without Howard or perhaps a more appropriate slogan – “After Howard, Howard”
Is it too late for Howard to feign a health scare and step down today, thus remaining undefeated ?
Adjusting for the Morgan bias this poll is 52-48.
Adjusting for the Galaxy bias their poll is 54-46.
Morgan then supports Galaxy
Galaxy then supports ACN.
All support Labor.
I think the Liberals shouldn’t appoint Costello as leader. They should go for an overhaul and move straight to Turnbull and encourage as many ex ministers to go as quickly as possible.
“63
Edward StJohn Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 8:38 am
John Hewson in the AFR is predicting a Labor margin of 3-7 seats ie 78-82 seats.
Kevin Rudd is writing off the unions in the Australian this morning – “not my concern if they live or die”.
Looks like we are going to get Howardism without Howard or perhaps a more appropriate slogan – “After Howard, Howard””
Ah, Eddie’s first sh!t of the day, but not his last, I fear.
After Howard, Rudd.
Not Howard. Rudd.
Live with it. And feel the pain that we’ve felt through 11 years of vileness, pettiness and vindictiveness.
$34 Billion Tax Cuts. If there is one fault of both parties in this campaign it would be the handout of $30-$34 Billion in tax cuts over 5 years. Personally, a pay rise of some $10-$20 a week for the average Australian is hardly worth the benefit that could be had if this money was equally across every electorate in Australia for the purposes of infastructure including roads, hospitals, schools and community facilities. (Thats $226 MILLION DOLLARS per electorate). Not to mention the added inflationary pressure these personal tax cuts will have on the economy at a time when inflation is being fueled by higher prices for groceries, fuel, rent and wages. In the past I like many other people have always negotiated salary with employers on the basis of ‘take home pay’ nett of tax therefore this tax cut is not the carrot politicians belive it to be. Communities should be the ones to receive the greater benefit of this massive surplus.
Ha John Hunt that’s some very creative work you’ve got going there.
I’m not sure ESJ, they may want to stick with Costello through Rudd’s honeymoon. You don’t agree with Greg Sheridan? He thinks they should go for Tony Abbot.
Just back from voting at Oz house in London. Had to queue for over an hour and there were at least 8 ALP how-to-vote cards taken for every Lib one – it’s on for KEV07!
The Liberals would need a quick clean-out LTEP of ministers who are seen as past it, people like Downer for example. They would want to maintain some who are not so shopworn – say Julie Bishop or Helen Coonan for example.
By the way, you Laborites shouldn’t be happy with 52% of the 2pp.
52% tpp equates to a uniform swing of 4.7 percent, which would yield Labor 15 seats, resulting in a hung parliament. Considering that they would probably not win either Bennelong on Wentworth, and that they would also lose a seat or two in WA, coupled with the fact that the swing in the Coalition marginals is lower than nationwide, the net result would be another Howard Government with a reduced majority.
Slowly but surely the tortoise crawls up to the hare…….
I think they should go for a labotamy!
I predict a landslide of historic proportions with Labor TTP of around 55%. This will get them more than 90 seats, but being a Geelong supporter I will stick with my earlier predictions of 89. This will be enough to keep Kevin as PM for at least 2 terms- enough to undo much of the damage done by the rat brigade over the past 11 years.
I think AC Nielsen is wrong – its really 60-40, all over the leafy north shore of sydney and Melbourne equivalents accountants, lawyers and doctors are rising up (as predicted by that seer Possum) and calling for a revolution – Kevin07, the national orgasm has begun.
At least Edward, to his credit, believes Labor will win, instead of trying to interpret the latest polls as some type of narrowing resulting in a close coalition win.
Gusface (26) said:-
>mccabe gave the week to labor!
though she did say that galaxy is correct cos she works closely with briggs????>
Yeah – my initial reaction was “well, she would say that, wouldn’t she?” Given she works for the paper that commissions Galaxy polls…… She also gave a spiel saying that many people, when they enter the booth, will think about how wll they’ve done under the Govt and vote accordingly.
Interestingly, Mark Reilly seemed to be trying to say that the Neilsen poll was closer to both sides’ private polling, but he was interrupted by David Koch (whose “I’m so sick of the election” mantra is wearing pretty thin). Anybody hear that, or was it my imagination?
Thats it Liberal losers keep telling your selves ‘Its going to be alright,Its going to be alright’
Asking people where their preferences will go is what produced the widely variable TPP figures in the final polls before the 2004 election. Thats why some of the pollsters have gone back to estimating them themselves this time around.
As far as the Galaxy Poll goes there are two things in my mind that tend to discount their findings on their latest poll. Firstly it is the first poll all year to show the two sides equal on primary vote and secondly it does not seemed to have moved the betting markets at all. Centrebet in fact has actually lengthened the Coalition’s price this morning. If in fact the result of the election was in some doubt you would not be seeing a price in excess of $4.00 for one of the contenders. I would be taking the Galaxy Poll with a grain of salt and looking at this Morgan and the latest ACN poll to draw my conclusions.
I thought 52.5% and 82 seats for Labor for about a week. Morgan does overstate Labor strength so knocking 2% off their number is reasonable.
AC Neilsen is crazy. Labor has neve achieved a vote like that. It is very brave indeed to predict a labor vote higher that 1972 or 1983 so 52.5% is probably as good as it gets.
rumour has it Newspol is 54-46 ALP
ESJ
I think most of Howard’s Minister’s are mostly past it. I don’t know whether Coonan would be hard-hitting enough in Opposition. They may want to choose some of their harder hitting members/senators who will really go for it. I see Senator Corey Bernardi being on their front bench within a few years. Senator McGauran perhaps would be able to provoke slips in the ALP front bench. I agree on Julie Bishop though, I think she’ll be fine.
Nostradamus if you want a proper response…
The truth is at 52% the election could go either way. Now I don’t agree with people here who say Labor can’t lose on 52% because it’s never happened before… but, on 52% if the swing is less in certain marginals then it will be more in other seats. The question is whether this additional swing would occur in seats that would fall to the ALP.
Yes, the ALP could lose 2 seats in WA, but they could gain 1 in NT, which would hardly effect the national 2PP at all. At 52% I’d say it’s too close to call either way.
Yeah, I’d much rather have the reconstituted possum urine that is a Swan Lager or a XXXX than a nice pint of Coopers…
Oh, please, please install Tony Abbott as leader of the Libs. Labor would be in power for as long as Abbott was their leader.
Averaging the primaries for the three polls produced thus far produces 45.5/41 on the primaries. If we assume 7.5 for Greens (can’t find primaries for these, but this about the level of the last election) and a 75%/40% preference flow Greens/Others, we get a TPP of about 53.5/46.5.
This is a swing of just over 6%, and about 82-85 seats to Labor. I like the 53.5% figure because it is in line with previous highest TPPs recorded in elections (just pips Hawke’s, I think).
LTEP,
In 1974 Nixon advised Ford to fire the entire Cabinet except Henry Kissinger, the Liberals will need to be seen to make a clean break from the Howard era to get re-elected if they lose tomorrow.
Movement to Labor in QLD:
PETRIE
ALP 1.80
LIBS 1.90
RYAN
LIBS 1.50
ALP 2.30
“77
Aussieguru01 Says:
November 23rd, 2007 at 8:51 am
Thats it Liberal losers keep telling your selves ‘Its going to be alright,Its going to be alright’”
Yes, it’s an interesting development.
1. Spend 12 months saying Labor can’t win, right up to the last minute.
2. At the last minute, backpedal furiously and say that Rudd is just as right-wing as Johnny.
Shanahan has written the blueprint in today’s Oz. Watch his minions fall into line.
Yet you can bet your bottom dollar that by the time of the next election, they’ll be back to banging on about the evils of Ruddite socialism…
FYI, Centrebet has blown out again over night:
1. LABOR 1.20 (in from $1.26)
2. COALITION 4.60 (out from $4.35)
Gary Bruce,
I may be a jinx though, I thought PJK would win in 1996 too!
anyone see gillard and abbott on nine tis morning
gillard had the line of the election so far
“dont worry tony ,you can stay on in parliament -as the fitness instructor!” 🙂
Albert Ross @ 35 – them’s fighting words.
How can a Greens supporter not like real ale ie Coopers ? (as opposed to that gassy chemical rubbish you people on the eastern seaboard drink).
The question you really need to ask yourself is this, given the polls all year and the election campaign performances , do you really believe Labor’s primary vote stands at 42.5%? My belief is that it is more like 46%.
I think it’ll be astounding if the betting markets don’t move to the Coalition during the day. The pay-off really is too good to resist if you believe Galaxy is the most accurate pollster (which a lot of people do believe).
I think the betting markets are really mostly worthless. It just tells us who people think will win. I also don’t believe the individual betting markets are really anything swish either. It’s just people taking a stab in the dark and hoping they get more than they would by betting on the national figure (believing the ALP is a lock-on).
I dont know Gary the people I associate with are not swinging voters so hard to say what the real world thinks or the mythical index patient believes.
89 Edward StJohn – I think you’ll get it right this time Edward.
hey guys,
this has probably been covered before, but I can’t find any booth-by-booth results from last election.
I would LOVE to know the numbers and %s for booths in what is now Eden-Monaro, can anyone point me in the right direction?
The Liberals could be outsourced – a bunch of 457 visas and some AWAs get them signed on for the next 5 years.
Re: the galaxy poll.
The primary vote is particularly interesting. The Coalition on 42.5 is not unreasonable, since their election campaign average is around 41.
It’s the Labor primary which is weird… 42.5. That’s a significant drop, and one which isn’t backed up by the ACN or Morgan (48 and 46.5).
I’m hanging out to see the ALP primary vote in the Newspoll. If it’s 44 or over then you’d have to say that Galaxy have screwed up on the Labor primary. Galaxy is obviously looking the most likely to be wrong, since the ACN and Morgan are in agreement with all the other ALP primary results up to this point.
Predictions on Newspoll ALP primary? I think we’ll see something in the range 44-46.