Morgan: 54.5-45.5

Roy Morgan has released a phone survey of 1670 voters including 1025 in hand-picked Coalition marginals. It shows Labor with an overall lead of 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, or 46.5 per cent to 40 per cent on the primary vote. The picture is somewhat better for the Coalition in the marginals, where the swing to Labor is 5.2 per cent compared with 7.2 per cent overall. Morgan aren’t done yet: the accompanying release tells us “the final Morgan Poll will be conducted tonight and released on election morning”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,119 comments on “Morgan: 54.5-45.5”

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  1. who knows Grog, maybe, maybe not. It’s not the most intuitive decision to reach but these are the people who’ve elected Howard 4 times.

  2. Newspoll will be 51.5 to 48.5


    Started celebrating too soon?

    Howard will win from this position and smack you down for three more years.

    All toooo easy.

  3. Sudoku Killer @ #1044

    I think that poll underestimates the “Moron” vote.

    Or maybe they just automatically rolled it up into the Coalition’s total?

  4. Hey William, I see from today’s Crikey that you and I are going down (or hopefully up!) together on the same ship as we have both picked the devil’s number as the projected size of Team Rudd. I was on 84 back around July and cautiously dragged my shell up another three seats on November 14. I’ve gone with the same as you for all states except I’ve gone for four Labor wins in Vic and been a bit cagier in NSW and Qld to make up for it.

    Charles Richardson has Bennelong in the “definite” Labor gain pile. I am a very cautious creature and try not to play with those sort of matches. 🙂

    I have predicted percentage and 2PP results for all Tassie seats and a list of 25 of the 27 seats I currently consider favoured to go by-byes along with various other waffle in my TT column for anyone interested (click on my username above; the title is “It Aint The Economy, Stupid”). I claim no real expertise in federal politics outside Tasmania so my guesses elsewhere are as meaningless as anyone else’s (journalists, politicians and Mr Morgan excepted).

  5. I tend to agree. AC Nielsen is along with Morgan the only total non-Liberal connected pollster. It has no axe to grind or game to play.

  6. Nostrodamus, you’ve been around for 500 years? It explains a lot. You’re not really Phillip Ruddock by any chance? He sure looks very dead.

  7. I know that a lot of educated pollsters are reading a lot into the polls, and are still predicting ALP victories out of this. Can I ask – in 2004 and 1998 – were you tipping Labor as well? I will openly admit to being in the panicer faction – I just want to know what the strike rate is like of those making the educated predictions.

  8. ND – you are just a boring sexist ALP w anker. Probably a trade union thug that enjoys trying to intimidate young women at polling booths.


  9. HJ @1087- don’t underestimate that a lot of idiotic bigots in this country like the idea of people running around slagging Moslems. Sadly, it’s true.

  10. Well, even Sky is giving the campaign to Rudd – albeit with a shot at his “spin” – as if Howard isn’t spinning like mad!

  11. People think that, when the real thing come, they aren’t willing to change from the safe and tested option.

    They’ve been parking their votes all along.

  12. [HJ @1087- don’t underestimate that a lot of idiotic bigots in this country like the idea of people running around slagging Moslems. Sadly, it’s true.]

    As if those kinds of people were ever going to vote for Rudd lol

  13. This election is seriously not good for my blood pressure. I’m freaking out over here. I was so confident in a Labor victory until this afternoon, when the panic set in. Surely people couldn’t be stupid enough to vote in the Rodent again?

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