Morgan: 54.5-45.5

Roy Morgan has released a phone survey of 1670 voters including 1025 in hand-picked Coalition marginals. It shows Labor with an overall lead of 54.5-45.5 on two-party preferred, or 46.5 per cent to 40 per cent on the primary vote. The picture is somewhat better for the Coalition in the marginals, where the swing to Labor is 5.2 per cent compared with 7.2 per cent overall. Morgan aren’t done yet: the accompanying release tells us “the final Morgan Poll will be conducted tonight and released on election morning”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,119 comments on “Morgan: 54.5-45.5”

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  1. Btw, the only way you get a 2c movement in Sportingbet is if you drop $50000K plus on one side. Someone must have just dropped a commodity on the Coalition at $4.25…

  2. This is not poll related, but I have posted the contents of a letter (In the La Trobe seat thread) sent to La Trobe constituents (me included) by a Bali Bombing survivor who was rescued by Rodney Cocks. The letter states that the smears spread by the Libs about Rodney’s military record are lies. It is pretty strong, might swing some late undecided voters.

  3. Patho

    That article by Poss also has a link to the article where Howard says he can sense it in the streets, the only one Howard is trying to convince is himself.

    Quite pathetic really, Howard is more closetted than the queen the way the general public are kept from him, especially in his stage managed appearances where friendlies are lined up before hand.

  4. LOL is Laugh Out Loud (indicating they thought the joke was funny.

    LTEP is Lose The Election Please, the frequent poster.

  5. Will@965

    Been there once, I was about 9 I think, looked good then, but after 11 years of Howard and Costello, Ill be working until I’m 95 before I can retire.


    ‘gogin’ – WTF . On the turps already! Hope you don’t work forWoolworths – read your AWA lately.

  6. Sudoko Killer @ 999

    LOL means, Laugh Out Loud

    LTEP refers to ‘Lose The Election Please’ the name of a regular poster to this discussion.

  7. Malignant brain tumours are never good news.</blockquote.

    Sadly true, but the odds are better with gamma knife surgery. Unfortunately, AFAIK, the equipment is not available here.

    That d*ckhead nelson was able to find $6b at the drop of a hat to buy Hornets we don’t need and only he wants, but when it comes to stuff that would actually help people this government doesn’t want to know.

    With only a small part of the billions in surpluses these clowns have wasted in 11 years we could have the best health and educational systems in the world. Sigh!

    Good luck, Matt!!!!!!!!!!

  8. [Centrebet, Bennolong: Howard, $1.68; McKew, $2.05.. well in today, I believe]

    Howard was on 1.65 earlier today, then went out to 1.72 an hour or two ago, now back to 1.68.

    Plenty of bets being laid it seems.

    I wonder how much of this is people laying off on bets they have already made in order to cover their a^se? If you’ve plonked a load of dosh on Labor in the past couple of weeks all this talk of ‘cliffhanger’ is bound to make you nervous.

  9. Yup, Arbie Jay, he’s completely stuffed – and I think he knows it. Somehow I always thought we were going to lose in ’04. This time, we’re going to win, and win big.

  10. Andrew Landeryou ( has got the Newspoll – 52-48. If that’s right it makes things very interesting with Newspoll and Galaxy landing at the same point…

  11. Sudoku

    LOL stands for laugh out loud.

    LTEP stands for, “Oh dear I don’t know who I am going to vote for, it is all so hard, but I think I will stay with the trustworthy Mr Howard or go for independent with family first”.

  12. no one will see any of what goes on this afternoon. friday nights are the lowest point in the news cycle. everyone is out doing stuff.

  13. LTEP: You are what is commonly known as a “Internet Whore”. I suspect you’re are on this board 24 hours a day, enjoying all the attention!
    Let me predict your reaction to possible scenarios:
    HOWARD NARROWLY WINS: HA HA, I told you so, you should have listened to me
    RUDD NARROWLY WINS: This can’t be right, the result will be overturned after recounts of postals and absentees

  14. I am sure that the election will end up with a TPP Nationwide of about 53/47…I wouldn’t be too concerned with whatever newspoll comes out with – I reckon they will come in at 51.5/48.5 – just to keep Johnny happy and to protect themselves if the Libs scrape back in – this is all it is about – Polling companies trying to save their reputation. By hanging around the 52 mark they leave the result open.

    If there is a mood for change in only a scattering of seats like the one I’m feeling here in Safe liberal (slightly inflated margin mind you) then i think ALP will win reasonably well. I’m sure there will be some recounts in seats like Mr O Shaunessy is suggesting – but Im not so sure it will be one that we are hanging onto too late tomorrow night.

  15. As this will be my final post before the end of the Howard regime, I wish to record my thanks to William, for his brilliant site, and to you all for your wit, insights, your links to hot stories, your analysis, your predictions, your *hubris*, even for your invective… It’s been a fascinating ride, and great fun watching people chip away at eachother’s preconceptions. I don’t know if this site changed any votes -though it did record the growing up of both Glen and ESJ who, I must say, have moderated their ramblings considerably over the months, and have begun to sound almost reasonable. They have both been brave enough to hang in here and slug it out, and it looks like they’re big enough to admit defeat when it is about to step on their faces. Good for you, guys.

    I suspect there are many like me who have used Pollbludger as therapy -knowing I can get a fix of optimism here at any hour, as well as some sound political reasoning. Hell, I’ve even enjoyed some of the whackier conspiracy theories aired here, but it is the voices of reason that have made the greatest impact on me. I especially thank Socrates and CL de Footscray, jasmine and Asanque, Swing Lowe, Just Me and Arbie Jay for their contributions.

    Back on Monday (if my hangover’s gone) to read your Saturday night posts and enjoy the election all over again. -Ozymandias

  16. Never mind the width, just feel the quality. Forget the polls. Howard is on Skynews right now. Just look at the desperation in his voice and face. Pleading to the undecided voters. Now, if you know you got a chance, that is not the kind of voice and body language you would display.

    In addition, why is he storming around Queensland on the last day of the campaign? He knows he is on the nose in QLD big time. Dead man walking.

    Where is Rudd? Relax and comfortable in sunny QLD. Labor will win, the only known or unknown or known known or unknown known or unknown unknown is HOW MANY!!!!

  17. Patho

    I didn’t vote for Latham, thought the best way of getting labor to sort themselves out was to send them a strong message.

    I think quite a few others did too, the labor primary was very low, about 37%, but now looks quite solid at about 46-47%, as the ad says we’re coming back.

    You can’t go off 2004 to look at swings needed to say seats are out of reach, seats that are 6-10% are probably more realistically in the 2-4% range becasue of 04.

    Not many were surprised labor lost in 04, but I think a few were at how the preference flow went, ie they may have voted independent but there vote ended up with the libs.

    I would’t discount a big swing this time,a 5% swing which is what you would expect against a government like this can actually translate into a 8-10% swing when taking into account 2004.

  18. Swing Lowe: They’re probably trying to avoid an arbitrage (making 2 or more bets that have a guarantee return) with bets against BetFair. If BetFair gets to say $5 for the Coalition, then if any other betting agency that has the ALP at greater than $1.25 could lose money (the punter would always win). The best way to work out for a possible arbitrage is take the highest Coalition odds, and divide that value by itself subtracted by 1 (i.e. 5 / (5 – 1)). This is the highest price other bet makers can have for the ALP before an arbitrage happens.

    To determine how much you can make off an arbitrage you have to do a bit more maths.

    A – odds of ALP
    B – odds of Coalition

    Arbitrage = 1 + (A * B – A – B) / (A + B)
    To work out the bets you need to make on both A and B to be guaranteed a return you need to divide the arbitrage value by the odds of each and multiply that by the amount of money you want to bet (remembering you will may money in return).

    This is off course for a 2 horse race, I haven’t looked at 3 or more horse race.

  19. Interesting point: Howard and Hyacinth no longer live in the boundaries of the Bennelong electorate. I guess he’ll be casting a provisional vote at Kirribilli LOL

  20. Thanks for the kind words Ozzy,

    I don’t know if I will get here saturday night as have to help out with our school P&C at the booths selling sausages, it is a great fundraiser for us, and I’ll be packing all the stuff up. then may head off to the Get up do.

  21. Swing Lowe, the tightening of the Coalition’s odds this afternoon amounts to very little in terms of probability.
    With some bookies this arvo, Labor has gone from $1.24 out to $1.26 and this is the equivalent to the Coalition’s firming from $4.50 to $4.25. This represents a shift of only about 1.3% in each case.
    For the Coalition to appear as anything but a rank outsider, it would have to firm in to at least $2.50/$2.75.
    Anything between $3.50 and the present odds (you can get $4.50 at Canbet and $4.40 at Portlandbet at the moment – 3.35pm) is not a good look for the NLP.

  22. Given the fornt page of The Oz has “The coalition is making strong gains in WA with a minor recovery in QLD and Victoria” I guess we know where the newspoll will predict the surge is comming from.

  23. 975

    James, luckily this doesn’t mean that Rudd is finished, even if some Howardites would like to think so. The odds of 4.60 in a two horse race are great, especially for delusional punters who think that Howard is a shoe-in.

  24. Another thing to remember for some: The SMH also claimed that the AC Neilsen 57/43 reflects both parties internal polling compared to Galaxy’s 52/48

    Possums always makes a nice graph:

  25. Indeed, I agree with that assessment Arbie Jay. Thing is, I just can’t fathom any scenario in which we could possibly lose. Howard is campaigning in seats with 10% margins; so is Rudd. Leaks here, to the Bulletin and elsewhere suggest that the Libs know they are going to get absolutely caned. And all the top journos know it, even if they’re not writing it.

    EVERYONE who has the credentials to be taken seriously and is suggesting a tight contest is pushing that line for their own reasons. The reason both major parties are doing so is obvious; for Newspoll, it’s about publicity; for party hacks, well, they’re party hacks.

    Think about it. ACNielsen has consistently been (I think) the most accurate pollster all year. Is it really likely that they’ve suddenly mucked up their methodology so as to produce a result that is over 5% away from the true figure?

    ACN is on the high side, but I reckon 55 will be the E-Night figure.

  26. Many thanks to those who responded.
    Mickey mouse poll on Yahoo on primary votes says: 48%Lab, 37%LNP, 8% Grn, 4% Morons.
    Probably one of the most accurate polls seen thus far.

  27. ABC reports
    Home loan affordability hits 20-year low
    By finance reporter Adrian Thirsk

    The REIA says a further negative impact is likely in the December quarter (File Photo). (ABC News: Gary Rivett)
    The Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA) says home loan affordability is the lowest it has been in more than 20 years.

    Howard spin on this would be:
    BUT of course Home loan affordability will always be better under a Coalition Govt unlike under the current Labor Opposition…que?

    Another shining example of the coalition’s superior moronic management

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