Newspoll: 52-48

Sky News reports tomorrow’s Newspoll at 52-48. The Australian reports a sample size of 2614, but no primary votes. Normally you wouldn’t doubt the result with four polls telling you 52-48, 52-48, 54.5-45.5 and 57-43, but surely there’s some significance to the fact that the two closest polls of the year have come in the day before polling day.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,500 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48”

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  1. # 1442
    Edward StJohn Says:

    “Nath,

    I think Richo said to reach the “top echelon” you have to be able to carry a schooner or a “pot” and hold your own in a boardroom.

    Neither party really has many people in that category.”

    And you are not one either – you are a fool and a goose !

  2. Ramsay also wrote an article in 1993 stating not to believe the polls and that Hewson would win the election… it wouldn’t even be close.

  3. All, brothers

    I’m fading fast….must keep eyes open…must not fall asleep.

    The last six weeks have been an experience, thank you all for your thoughts and wisdoms

    would that we can all meet on the other side!!!

    My pick is L-Np Howard by 2 seats

    good night all

  5. CONFESSION

    All Labor bloggers have blindly accepted the Newspoll 52-48
    rather than Morgan or ACN or ACN less 2%

    Probably because Labor supporters are so desperate for John Howard to be defeated that the ‘poor’ Newspoll result has caused anxiety

    The desperation to see Howard go is based on
    1/ For 11 years all of his decisions (apart from IR) have been EXCLUSIVELY
    driven by will he gain or lose votes on an issue (rather than on sensible policy)

    2/ Howard has used “wedge” politics to win votes IRRESPECTIVE of whether the
    ” AUSTRALIAN victim” is a Muslim or an Indian doctor or David hicks or ending
    troops to Iraq or refugees or Tampa boat people or Tassie timber workers or
    90% of unionists or NT aboriginal intervention etc.

    3/ Work choices in many ways returns Aussie workers to a ‘master’ to servant’
    relationship.
    Whilst Aussie workers deserve better than that , work choices represents the
    REAL philosophical core of the ‘dry Liberal’ party

    Which is why I’m proudly passionate in seeing Howard defeated

  13. [ I dont think the Liberals (or at least the pre-Howard Liberals) cared about homosexuality as long it was kept firmly in the closet ]

    That’s like saying they don’t mind blacks as long as they wear white paint on their skin. Of coarse the Libs care about Homosexuals. It bothers them unless the homosexual in question is famous or rich.

  16. Ron Brown, just do like the rest of us and cast your vote today (DST). More than that we cannot do (apart from handing out HTVs). The poll numbers have entertained us over the last few months, but now truly is the moment when so few have done for so many … errr … something … Oh! Right! vote Labor – for a New Leadership! and especially, to remove the meretricious and over-adumbrated dog-whistle-virtuoso JWH from any significant spoiling role in our nation. Advance Australia! yee-hah! kick him out the back door! (oh we’re supposed to stop doing that) – anyway, vote early, legally, and often!

  17. Oh come on Paul K,

    I am not getting drawn into this debate, of course attitudes in 1971 were silly, but I honestly dont think anyone cares today.

  21. Edward StJohn Says: “Dave and George – the Beavis and Butthead of Poll Bludger”

    ESJ, the bigot… like the rest of the right-wing Liberals. And B&B are awesome!

  27. BBC World News has a bit on the election in Australia and from listening to it you’d think Iraq was the major issue of the campaign. I’m constantly amazed at how foreign journos misunderstand Australia. Makes you wonder if any of the stuff we hear about what’s going on overseas is accurate either.

  28. I have to make some calls to the States, but I’ll leave you all with the words of Tracee Hutchison in today’s SMH:

    Today is the day that we tell John Howard — and his elephant — it is time for them to go. Today is the day for Australia to reclaim its sense of justice, humanity, equality and pride. Today is the day we tell each other and the world that we are a decent, good-hearted, generous people who reach out and reach down and walk tall because of it.

    And today is the day John Winston Howard walks into the hall of mirrors that is the politically, socially and culturally redefined multicultural electorate of Bennelong.

    Oh, what an epitaph. That the man whose political party played the race card once too often — in his 11th hour — is not only tipped out of government, but the man himself tipped out of his now culturally diverse seat by the very people he used so successfully for so long as pawns in his political chess game.

    Could there be a sweeter decline?

  30. George @ 1461 – Thanks! Bill Leak has been the chronicler of the campaign for sure. I can’t wait for monday – his effort *has* to be the result in the ring!

  32. paul k, couldn’t agree more, except for the correspondents who have lived here for a while. Only then do they realise just how blessed, clever, and thtoopid we are 😉

  39. FFS – did not one of you suposedly accute obsrevers look, as I did, at the eyes of PC on LL and see what I saw?!?

    I suppose the lot of you are too busy staring down JoM and LTEP to see what the rest (99.95%) of the electorate are seeing? Sorry little bunch of poll-wankerz!

    Look beyond the electoral significance of your own waffle (approaching 0)

  42. Newspoll pdf is online now.
    What a beat up. Take out the 12 point swing in the last 3 days in the WA figures and guess what, u end up with, about 54/46 lead the ALP’s way.
    In fact, SA looks like being strong (57/43 from memory), Qld, Nsw & Vic hold up well too.
    So much for the “narrowing” hype. Anything to sell a paper hey.
    I can’t get my head around that HUGE shift in primaries in WA in 3 days. Can this be a completely different polling base to the previous one? I can’t figure it out now, too tired, but going to bed happy knowing that the 8 point gap is still largely in play, praise the Lord. Staying with 88-60-02 and looking good.

  47. same old newspoll rubbish the key statement is ‘preference flow calculated on 2004 result’ That is now hopelessly out of date with the rise of the greens and the much higher flow of greens preferences to labor

  48. Morning All,

    Wishing everyone a happy election day.

    Go Labor!

    Anyone voting at Excelsior Publi School in Castle Hill this morning between 8-10, come up & say g’day – I’m in Kev 07 livery.

    Likewise Bert Oldfield Primary School Seven Hills between 2-5.

    Good luck to all.

    Vote early & vote often.

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