ACNielsen: 57-43

Not sure where he heard this, but the more than reliable Possum Comitatus hears tomorrow’s ACNielsen will show 55-45.

UPDATE: Now the Channel Seven News tells us it’s 57-43. Either ACNielsen or Galaxy are going to look at bit silly come Sunday.

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Nov 23
 57 43 ? ?
Nov 16
 54 46 47 43
Nov 2
 55 45 48 41
Oct 19
 54 46 48 42
Oct 6
 56 44 47 40
Sep 8
 57 43 49 39
Aug 11
 55 45 46 41
Jul 14
 58 42 49 39
Jun 16
 57 43 48 39
May 19
 58 42 48 39
April 21
 58 42 50 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,408 comments on “ACNielsen: 57-43”

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  1. Aussieguru,I’m with the BCC been 33 long years.Like you it was family reasons that brought us to Mansfield.Been in Griffith,Bowman and now Bonner.Seen some ups and downs in my time in this neckof the woods.But suffice to say Mansfield is solidly Labor these days.The Christian Tory tag is long gone.

  2. Kerry Obrien (when Howard scrapes home): Well, this reporter was … possibly a little hasty earlier and would like to reaffirm his allegiance to John Howard and the Liberal Party. It may not be perfect, but it’s the best government we have. For now.

  5. OK, so does anyone want to tell me if it’s psephologically relevant that _both_ ACN polls came up with the same figure? Does that increase confidence in the 57/43 result? Versus Galaxy?

  7. The ‘oz’ used the word primary instead of 2PP
    Galaxy 2 PP is Labor 52 to 48

    hope ACN is at least mostly right and hope Galaxy is 100% wrong

  9. K jin You are so right.But it’s been coming for nearly 12 months now,since Kevin took over.I know Rudd and none of this surprises me.His capacity for work is phenomenal.We are going to maybe win bigger than Curtain.But certainly bigger than Hawke.Think of it an elected Queensland PM.We’re all part of history!!

  10. I know Bob. I remember that Bill Klause use to be your state member in the 80’s then he jumped from the Libs to the Nats. Now Mansfield is Labor territory. Same with Greenslopes..remember that Leisha Harvey. Times have changes & all the southside is RED!

  17. So very interesting.

    My tiny immediate experience, over the last few days, tells me that the so called ‘soft’ voters, decided, quite some time ago, which side of the fence they are on.

    Who may have deceived the pollsters, with their less than piercing questions.

    It was already easy, for me, to work out among those I know, who intended voting Coalition. Irrespective.

    And who was not going Coalition. If not Labor, first up, but preferentially.

    It comes down to, for whom exactly, the non Coalition, in their interests, as perceived across the spectrum, they intend to vote.

    Summation.

    Labor. Greens. Nick. Dem (one). Not necessarily in that order.

  20. #1313 Yep – thinking about that too – but there are some technical solutions – first off – restricting posts to a known collection (the usual suspects) – and secondly pushing chat style stuff onto IRC – both actions should help keep things under control

  21. “#
    1295
    Glen Says:
    November 23rd, 2007 at 12:35 am

    Speers Sky News: The ALP has apparently been taken over – “conquered” if you will – by a master race of Union bosses. It’s difficult to tell from this vantage point whether they will consume the captive earth men or merely enslave them. One thing is for certain. There is no stopping them; the ALP will soon be here. And I for one welcome our new Union overlords. I’d like to remind them that as a trusted TV personality, I could be helpful in rounding up others to toil in their underground geothermal caves.

    glen, my son is at work – he started at 5pm – he finishes …. well i dunno – soon? he is 25 and CANNOT settle into any sort of social life (or leave home for that matter) 😉 glen he’s at uni and just needs a break, cos he’s still gonna have a HUGE HECS debt whilst MOST of the ministers in the current rancid govt had FREE education (courtesy of EGW)

    geln i would REALLY like to slag u off – but ur NOT worth the bandwidth

  23. aussieguru01. not too fast. they have two properties in Bulimba. they must be worth a mint. but if you’re thinking of the fortress that is apparently a church then you’re right.

  26. No,Believe it or not,I have my sons cricket Saturday morning,booth work for a couple of hours in the arvo and then a joint birthday party BBQ cum election party at my place.I’m under pressure “from she who must be obeyed” to have all birthday stuff out of the way by 5pm!!!

  27. I think a lot of people should remember, think about what they thought about Rudd 12 months ago. Win or Lose He has shaken everything up. No Pm will be elected with out a base from the QQQQLd’/Nsw axis

  31. It will be interesting to see what the polls do tomorrow and how the media reports the two polls. Fingers crossed Newspoll is similar to Galaxy.

  34. Bob from Bonner. Too funny!!!!!!! even though i’m only a newlywed i’m quickly cathing on to the management style deployed. Happy Birthday too! I’m a nov birth too. 8th.

  36. Glen at 1295.

    ‘I’d like to remind them that as a trusted TV personality’

    Curb this fantasy, Glen, dear.

    You Tube does not rank.

    Calm, calm.

  37. The place seriously has barbed wire on the fences. i thought at first it must have been connected to the naval barracks… but no. it was a church!

  38. ACNielson ALP primaries on both their phone and online poll are consistent with the 47% ALP average all polls have shown all year. On the other hand Galaxy shows ALP primary has collapsed to 42.5%.

    Based on the campaign one couldn’t expect the ALP primary to have collapsed as the Libs have been woeful over the last 6 weeks suffering one disaster after the other. Nothing in the campaign, media or electorate itself indicates or validates such a sudden collapse of ALP primary as shown in Galaxy. Even Briggs of Galaxy admits this himself by saying;

    The polling also shows 57 per cent of voters believed Mr Rudd performed better during the campaign. Only 27 per cent believed Mr Howard had a strong campaign.

    This election may be the end of Galaxy as a serious pollster.

  41. Yes I am just back in. No idea where any fellow posters live. But I would think none of us would disagree that the huge carpack on Lytton RD is a terrible scar on our suburbs.
    But again I have to say brethern I have met in Bulimba do good resto jobs on QLDERS in the area.

  43. [ #1315
    Darn Says:
    November 23rd, 2007 at 12:46 am

    In MOE terms how much more reliable is a sample of 2000 as against a sample of 1200. Anybody know? ]

    Darn,

    Very rough guide: I believe 1000 is about 3% MOE and 2000 is about 2%.
    There is a formula you can use to work it out but I’m not much good at Maths.

  46. Well,I have work tomorrow,so off to bed.Talk to you all tomorrow night.I’m not concerned about Galaxy.I know so MANY Tories voting Labor it isn’t funny.I have the same feeling as in 1972, 1983 and 1993.So I sleep the sleep of the righteously assured! LOL!!!!

  48. I live on Cavendish Rd just up the hill hence the view to the city on the right & Mt Gravatt on the left. I been here for ages.

  50. Given how the Terror, the Oz and the CM have turned to the Ruddster, is it not possible that Galaxy has been prepared creatively to shore up support from those who might switch back to Howard if they think Labor will win too easily?

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