ACNielsen: 57-43

Not sure where he heard this, but the more than reliable Possum Comitatus hears tomorrow’s ACNielsen will show 55-45.

UPDATE: Now the Channel Seven News tells us it’s 57-43. Either ACNielsen or Galaxy are going to look at bit silly come Sunday.

Nov 23
57 43 ? ?
Nov 16
54 46 47 43
Nov 2
55 45 48 41
Oct 19
54 46 48 42
Oct 6
56 44 47 40
Sep 8
57 43 49 39
Aug 11
55 45 46 41
Jul 14
58 42 49 39
Jun 16
57 43 48 39
May 19
58 42 48 39
April 21
58 42 50 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,408 comments on “ACNielsen: 57-43”

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  1. INteresting note at the bottom of the article in the SMH covering the AC Neilson, saying

    “Galaxy Poll to be published in News Limited newspapers today shows the election to be a tight contest, with the two main parties tied on 42.5 per cent of the primary vote and Labor leading by 52 per cent to 48 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.

    But sources from both main parties believed that the Herald poll more accurately reflected what their internal polling had found.”

  2. WTF The GG endorses Rudd. “A man of the times” “We recommend a vote for mister Rudd.” The Jig is finally up when even your own mouthpiece turns against you.

  3. “F*ck you all”
    – John Howard, 7.00pm, 24th November 2007

    “I love youse guys”
    – Kevin Rudd, 7.01pm, 24th November 2007

  4. Although the MoE is one explanation for the difference between the Galaxy and ACN polls, it might also be that they were conducted differently. It is pretty unlikely that two polls are at the extreme and opposite ends of the MoE. If it’s true, as someone suggested, that Galaxy weights its poll towards marginals, then that would explain the difference and ACN is a much better indicator of average national voting intentions. If so, then Howard is trailing very badly. Even if ACN overestimates the gap and it’s more like 55/45, that will be a huge win for Labor whatever happens in the marginals, since close results in marginals simply means that the swings have to be that much bigger elsewhere to get 55/45 nationally.

  5. It aint all over until the fat lady sings – remember Malcolm Pants Down Frazer’s election win when old Goofy was way ahead in the polls!
    God help us all if Krudd and old Ferret faced Gillard get in.

  6. Polling is one thing. Anecdotal evidence can also be indicative. Does anyone know / know of a lot of people who voted for the Coalition in 2004 who are switching?

    I have spoken to plenty of people who still don’t know how they will vote. I have spoken to a few who have switched from Liberal to Labor. I haven’t yet spoken to ANYONE who will switch the other way.

    I think Howard’s biggest problem is that (excluding WA) it’s hard to conceive of a voter profile that would switch to him after having voted for Latham. In other words, usually a bit of swing goes both ways and there is some cancel out. I think tomorrow’s swing will be a one directional one – however big.

  7. The fun of the Poll Bludger game is only if you are courageous enough to write your comment before election results begin to stream out tomorrow. Hence I am writing the following statement. (Like everyone else in politics, I’m also taking a chance of winning or loosing!).

    “If Rudd wins it should be no surprise for Howard. But if Howard wins, Australia will look silly…”

    Let experts dig deeper into meanings of my thoughts.

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