Galaxy: 52-48

More than one commenter reports that Paul Bongiorno has indicated on the Channel Ten News has reported tomorrow’s Galaxy poll at “52-46”, a most unfortunately timed slip of the tongue. We will presumably know soon enough whether he meant 54-46 or 52-48.

UPDATE: Thanks to Adelaide readers for confirming it as 52-48.

Nov 23
52 48 ? ?
Nov 4
54 46 45 42
Oct 19
53 47 45 43
Sept 24
56 44 46 40
Aug 27
57 43 47 39
July 30
54 46 44 41
July 2
55 45 46 41
June 4
53 47 44 42
May 14
57 43 49 39
April 23
58 42 49 37

NOTE: Please exercise some common sense when speculating on poll results in comments. For the love of God, do not leave comments like “ACN 50-50” and then, 10 minutes and 115 comments later, say “oh sorry, that was only a prediction”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

147 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48”

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  1. Ladies and Gentlemen I am officially confused

    How can in the same period of time galaxy come into 52-48, and ACN go to 57-43?

    *Scratches head*

    *Befuddled look on face*

  2. Very simple SirEggo. Both are within the margin of error. Combine the two and you get 54.5 which, give or take, is what the polls have been saying for some time now.

  3. “Bull Butter” – Sounds like something a 6 year old would say

    52% is NOT a win for Labor either, maybe high 52% but not 52% flat.

  4. I think it’s been repeated over and over again.

    Galaxy was closest to the 2PP result. ACN was closest to the ALP primary but overestimated the Coalition primary.

    Morgan was close to both the Coalition and ALP primaries. Newspoll was out of whack, but not too bad on the primaries.

    In other words, if you look at all of them and particularly the primaries they’re not far off. This year will be different.

  5. Mark my words. Galaxy will be the one losing credibility and thrown in the scrap heap with Morgan. They consistently understate ALP BY 2% primary & overstate the Libs by 2% primary. They are a joke!

  6. Both Galaxy and ACN could be “right” in the sense that their results are similar, within the usual MoE. Newspoll is also likely to be close to the final result. The result will probably be around 55/45, very close to the averaged result for all the polls. The Newspoll cumulative result state by state is 56/44, even closer to the averaged result.

    If the final 2PP is anything below 52/48 or higher than 58/42, you’d have to say they all got it wrong and start questioning the value of opinion polls at all. Alternatively, you could conclude that public opinion moved in large numbers very quickly in the closing moments before voting. These kind of factors are possible, but not likely. The most likely result is still a 2PP around 55 or better for Labor

    I would really lie to see the Galaxy Primaries. This may cast some light on how they arrived at their 52/48 split.

  7. Oh, dear! tabitha, maybe in 2020 when you’ve managed to do something about a party who’s members think it’s a jolly jape to lie.

  8. Still think that Possum’s 55.15 conclusion is pretty much on the mark, only bolstered by the appaling events in Lindsay of today. Couldn’t have happened to a more deserving bunch really.

  9. Just had a look at the details of this poll;

    1- The poll is a 5 state breakdown (N.S.W, QLD, S.A,VIC and W.A) of 4 marginals for each state. The sample size is 4k, 800 per state.

    2- When adusting the swings with the respective seat weight in regards to the state wide swing, we find that the national swing is approx 5.4%, with a2pp of 52.6. This poll looks very simular to the poll in last weekend’s News Ltd papers.

    3 -The remarkable things to note is a) They show a large swing in NSW and only a 5% swing in QLD.

  10. “Question: Could we have tried harder for working families?
    Answer: No we gave it our all but it wasn’t enough”
    “Question: Will Labor abandon the fight for working families ?
    Answer: Not while I am leader of this great party”

    – Kevin Rudd 24 November 2007

  11. Just a note on my last comment, N.S.W has a swing of 7.3%, the seats polled were Eden Monaro, Robbo, Wenty and Page.

    Sleep easy…….30 seats goooone!

  12. ALJ – where did you get that info?

    I expected to hear that Galaxy was a marginal’s only poll,

    why else would News Ltd ask for a poll for tomorrow when they are publishing a Newspoll on Sturday morning?

  13. “I respect the judgement of the Australian people and tonight after a good old fashioned Labor wake we recommit ourselves to keeping the Government accountable and fighting the good fight for working families”

    – Kevin Rudd November 24th 2007

  14. ” Where the f&ck is Gartrell I want his ar*e he promised me I would be Prime Minister”

    – Kevin Rudd (off camera) 24th November 2007

  15. For the benefit of the mathematically challenged & (those that are NOT smarter than a 5th grader).

    A 51.4% vote is likely to provide Labor with 75 Seats. So 52% would be likely to be a close win. The Govt’s advantages are already built in to the margins by now.

    Only a fool would take the one poll they like the most, ignore the other 3, and assume all is going well.

    Sure it is possible the coalition could still come back, or that all the other polls are wrong, but its damn unlikely. <5% chance.

    As for Galaxy being closest in 2004 – more chance than anything with the approx 3% margin of error that most polls have. Nielsen is credited with being the one poll that seems to overestimate the Libs vote (and has at recent elections). However that 57% seems out of step too.

    All that said, if the usual deluded suspects (you know who you are!) want to place money on the coalition to win, please do and do it soon and put a lot of money on. It will bring the odds for Labor higher and thus the rest of us will get a bigger profit!

  16. Tabitha, I hope you really have your hopes up. I would feel much better if I didn’t think you were just putting on a brave face. The crushing of genuine hope would be far better.

  17. Although Galaxy was very accurate last election, I think the result might be a bit closer to about 53/47.

    My revised prediction is about 81 seats to Labor.

    (sorry Cameron, I know I said 87 earlier today)

  18. Loved the house for sale on Domain jimbob! May be vacant in a week.

    A week??? As one of the part owners I want the old bugger gone by lunchtime Sunday. If their old property isn’t ready yet then I’m sure the nearest Sally Army hostel will put him and the misses up for a few nights, after all he’s sent them lots of business over the years! 😉

  19. Both results should surely still indicate a Labor win.

    The current debate regarding the actions of the Liberal Party in Lindsay will only consolidate the poles to Labor.

    How could anyone vote for a party that allows this type of campaigning to occur?

    The differential between poles will disappear, Labour will win 86 seats.

  20. Ruddock’s performance on Lateline tonight took lies and denial to the level of hilarity for the viewer. He says he was advised the Party expelled three members but doesn’t know there names because he didn’t ask. Three rednecks pull an attrotious stunt in a key marginal seat and show the true ugly face of the Liberal party two days before an election they are already certain to lose (hopefully in a big way) and he doesn’t ask. Everytime another one of them lies like this it reminds everyone of AWB, weapons of mass destruction, children overboar, non core promises etc etc. What a way to go out on what was no doubt his last appearence on a serious televised interview.

  21. All the action is at the ACN thread -understandable. On there I noticed that someone said Galaxy was claiming the ALP primary was 42.5.

    It is conceivable it could slip below the 47-48 it has scored throughout the year, but 42.5? If it got below 45 I’d be surprised. If it gets anywhere near 42.5 I’ll eat a bucketful.

  22. Colin at 140
    How could anyone vote for a party that allows this type of campaigning to occur?

    Colin, there are heaps of people who will vote for this party exactly because of this type of campaining. They don’t care if it was illegal or racists or immoral. They will vote for them as long as they kick the moslems. It is no accident that this incident occured in Penrith. This is fertile ground for racism and islamophobia. The poor, the uneducated, those who have been left behind in Howard’s Australia will always look for a scape goat and the tories are providing one for them.

    By the way did the cadaever (ruddock) on LL mention use of his new anti-terror laws to prosecute this type of slander?
    i wrote to him after the cronulla riots asking if he’d prosecute alan jones. No reply.

    Labor by 24 seats.

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