Galaxy: 52-48

More than one commenter reports that Paul Bongiorno has indicated on the Channel Ten News has reported tomorrow’s Galaxy poll at “52-46”, a most unfortunately timed slip of the tongue. We will presumably know soon enough whether he meant 54-46 or 52-48.

UPDATE: Thanks to Adelaide readers for confirming it as 52-48.

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Nov 23
 52 48 ? ?
Nov 4
 54 46 45 42
Oct 19
 53 47 45 43
Sept 24
 56 44 46 40
Aug 27
 57 43 47 39
July 30
 54 46 44 41
July 2
 55 45 46 41
June 4
 53 47 44 42
May 14
 57 43 49 39
April 23
 58 42 49 37

NOTE: Please exercise some common sense when speculating on poll results in comments. For the love of God, do not leave comments like “ACN 50-50” and then, 10 minutes and 115 comments later, say “oh sorry, that was only a prediction”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

147 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48”

Comments Page 1 of 3
1 2 3

  9. I heard it was 68-32 to the Greens over Family First after all Liberal candidates were expelled and all ALP candidates were ruled ineligible and the Nationals fell down a bottomless pit and Pauline Hanson got gigantism.

  17. This is the best result for the Coalition in ANY poll all year… and from the most accurate pollster last time.

    Coalition to win it in a thriller.

  24. ACN has leaked to ABC 7pm news in the past. Perhaps tonight as well.

    BTW I heard Paul B on Ch.10 say 52-48, not 46. Perhaps they re-recorded that voice-over for central and western states after they realised the slip. And he said ACN has Labor “much further ahead”.

  27. Paul Bongiorno can’t add up.

    Still galaxy were the closest to the 2004 result. I told ya’ll it will be a squeaker 😉

    General Wenck may arrive in time.

    What are the primaries?

  32. 52 – 48 is incredible news for the Coalition. They really could *JUST* sneak in with that kind of result.

    However, if the other polls buck the trend, will it simply just be an outlier?

    Nielson apparently has the ALP “far further ahead”.

    Also, although Galaxy did predict the last election result, there are a few reasons not to worry for the ALP, I believe

    1 – Even though Galaxy predicted the last election, this could have just been luck.

    2 – 52 – 48 is still very much in favour of a Labor win, just with only a smallish majority of like 10.

  33. Well, unless ACN or Newspoll also comes in at 52-48 this poll won’t mean much. I reckon we’ll get ACN 54-46 (prediction) and Newspoll 53-47 (prediction). Final election result around 53%.

  34. I think there are a couple of myths emerging about this poll:

    Myth No 1. It’s good for Labor, avoids complacency … – disagree, it’s what the Liberals needed to keep breathing at this stage of their campaign. How that makes it good news for Labor is anyone’s guess.
    Myth No 2. Galaxy have cooked the figures… – Don’t they make their money because people hire them for market research? Why would they cook the figures?

  40. “ACN was given as higher for the ALP but no details apparently at 55/45 – the business as usual we’ve all come yawn about.”

    From our very own Possum…

  41. maybe not the ‘narrowing’ but cause for hope.

    note also that Morgan and newspoll have substantially underestimated the LNP TPP in several of the last elections.

    anyone who says this is ‘over’ is wrong

  45. [Myth No 1. It’s good for Labor, avoids complacency … – disagree, it’s what the Liberals needed to keep breathing at this stage of their campaign. How that makes it good news for Labor is anyone’s guess.]

    Well it’s debatable I guess. I can imagine that people who worry about “wall to wall labor governments” might also be concerned about a landslide to labor. There’s a reason that Rudd is always playing down his chances of winning by a large margin.

  46. PLEASE REMEMBER

    It is historically the case that the election eve polls are far LESS acurate than the poll trend with progressions.

    They are also the most volatile. 52/48 is not impossible. Niether is 56/44

  47. Possum has 55-45 for ACN….nothing has changed, just like it hasn’t all year. Like Possum says, Galaxy have been the “stand-up comedian of polling all year”.

  48. As Possum has shown and others have pointed out time and again, it is the AVERAGE across the different polls that reliably comes closest to the final result.

    Just because one poll got it closest last time does not mean it will this time. There will always be random fluctuations within the margin of error. In other words, it comes down to luck.

    I suggest everybody hold their nerves until we get the average from all four polls, presumably later tonight.

  50. just read a post by the poss regarding galaxy’s method and its problems. ACN is the real deal apparently, as well as Newspoll (but it can show more volatility).

    ACN apparently 55/45 according to the Poss.

    ok. i’m comfortable and relaxed again. Thanks Honest John. 😉

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 1 of 3
1 2 3