Galaxy: 52-48

More than one commenter reports that Paul Bongiorno has indicated on the Channel Ten News has reported tomorrow’s Galaxy poll at “52-46”, a most unfortunately timed slip of the tongue. We will presumably know soon enough whether he meant 54-46 or 52-48.

UPDATE: Thanks to Adelaide readers for confirming it as 52-48.

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Nov 23
 52 48 ? ?
Nov 4
 54 46 45 42
Oct 19
 53 47 45 43
Sept 24
 56 44 46 40
Aug 27
 57 43 47 39
July 30
 54 46 44 41
July 2
 55 45 46 41
June 4
 53 47 44 42
May 14
 57 43 49 39
April 23
 58 42 49 37

NOTE: Please exercise some common sense when speculating on poll results in comments. For the love of God, do not leave comments like “ACN 50-50” and then, 10 minutes and 115 comments later, say “oh sorry, that was only a prediction”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

147 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48”

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  1. Has Galaxy come up with this 52-48 in their polls in the last, say, 6 months?!?
    If this just another fresh poll (with 1-2k sample size), I wouldn’t take it seriously.
    By now pollsters should announce their aggregated poll, weighting over the last few months. That would be more convincing.

  3. I would need to see the primaries first to see if 52-48 result reported in Galaxy is on mark. Anyway that would still mean Labor winning the election with between 76-78 seats.

  4. 3LO melbourne. Ian Henderson (ABC TV News) said “there will be something in the polls for everybody for everyone. One of the polls is narrowing and the other is widening.”

  5. It’s great to see the tory supporters building up hope. Oh, the let down is going to be tremendously bad for them now. At least if you feel you have no hope you can steel yourself well before hand.

  9. I probably won’t know the result as it happens im scrutineering but it shouldnt take so long before Antony Green is telling Labor supporters not to jump off bridges because the early results are from rural booths with conservative voter bases lol!

  11. Galaxy has always been the low mark for Labor and ACN the high mark. Average them out and you’ll be close to the mark. I can see a 53 plus for Labor coming up. A comfortable victory.

  12. 59,

    Go to the ABC site and sign up for Antony’s service that will send results to your mobile 🙂 …. My husband is handing out HTV cards and scrutineering and that is what he is doing to keep in touch 🙂

  15. For gods sake when is the left going to get its act together and realize we are in for the fight of our life. It makes me sick to think of the YR@W volunteers slogging it out in the marginals and then to read the triumphalisim and hubris from many of the commentators, 85 seats, 9896 seats whatever. All the polls are bullshit probably even this one.
    This election is to close to call, for the last to weeks the ALP primary has been trending down, and now this poll confirming the trend though I don’t believe ALP has fallen to 52% the TREND is clear. Weird things are happening first Comitatus ground breaking results to detect the large swings in the safe seats. Then the Neo Liberal comeback on the western front. This election has come down to vicious guerilla warfare in the marginals with no prisoners taken.

  17. Julie cheers, although my mobile phone is an old piece of shiat so i cant do it 🙁

    All ill miss is the Tassie results and a glum looking Barker in Braddon banging on about the Mersey lol 🙂

    Oh and Antony’s early results from rural NSW where they have massive swings to the Nats and Antony tells Labor voters not to jump off bridges hilarious stuff lol!

  19. If this is a fresh poll I would take notice; if it is not it is not worth concern – AC Nelson should be interesting

    I listened to Howard today at the Press Club – he was asked a question around building bridges with the Muslim commuity if he was re elected. His response was very interesting he went in to a spiel about terroists – he was not asked about this!!! The man plays on peoples fears – muslims / terroists!! Howard politics 101

  20. 68,

    I will post the link in about 10 to 15 minutes. I have to go to another computer and get it out of sent mail ……. I sent it to my husband at work earlier this week 🙂

  28. Has anyone seen any printed confirmation of this result, or of the details of the alleged Galaxy poll (sample size? Full national or marginals? etc etc)

    Cheers

    Rod

  40. Brilliant result!

    52-48 will keep the punters honest, and result in a firming of ALP vote

    Plus Galaxy was unquestionably push polling with the “close to unions” question.

    ACN is the better poll; and it looks big.

    Landslide coming.

  47. there are 2 threads opened at the moment, I don’t wanna miss either of them. But it’s a pain to follow 2 threads at the same time 🙁

  48. Will be interesting to see what happens with the bookies tomorrow, with such a discrepancy we could see the ALP firm even more or a *teensy* LNP comeback. Either way, I hope the LNP is routed come Saturday.

    Maybe I’m just cynical, but I can never fully shake the feeling of waking up on Sunday seeing Howard, Costello, Abbott etc all beaming on the TV set announcing “Workchoices: The Empire Strikes Back”

  49. 52/48 from the most reliable pollster out there (I know, that’s not saying much, but still…)

    And the Tele has endorsed Labor? What a surprise! Of course its wet-behind-the-ears editor Penberthy is going to endorse wet-behind-the-ears Krudd. Big deal.

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