ACNielsen: 57-43

Not sure where he heard this, but the more than reliable Possum Comitatus hears tomorrow’s ACNielsen will show 55-45.

UPDATE: Now the Channel Seven News tells us it’s 57-43. Either ACNielsen or Galaxy are going to look at bit silly come Sunday.

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Nov 23
57 43 ? ?
Nov 16
54 46 47 43
Nov 2
55 45 48 41
Oct 19
54 46 48 42
Oct 6
56 44 47 40
Sep 8
57 43 49 39
Aug 11
55 45 46 41
Jul 14
58 42 49 39
Jun 16
57 43 48 39
May 19
58 42 48 39
April 21
58 42 50 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,408 comments on “ACNielsen: 57-43”

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  1. One more post then,I’m in Mansfield with partner and still 4 sons(can’t induce any of them to leave,I blame Howard!!!! LOL!!!)

  2. seeya bob. aussieguru i looked around that way when i was buying, but fluked something affordable in Bulimba.

    and on that note i’m off to bed!!

    Bring it on.

  3. Catching a bit of Delroy on a non local station, somewhere other, before SA broadcast.

    The Libs are in full flight!

    Drubbing Kev.

    Last dance, no chance.

  4. There are still some undecideds out there and quite a few not interested in the politics.

    Where my wife works she was telling me that 5 of her collegues were going to vote for Howard,2 were in their 40’s, 3 young kids in their 20’s and mainly disinterested.

    She talked the 2 into changing, will go Green, and the 3 young uns into labor, but had to impress on them to check the party names.

    Not everyone is as interested in this election as we may think. And she is also one up on me as I only managed to turn 4 from the dark side.

  5. Last sentence of Editorial, Oz. Perhaps already mentioned.

    ‘We recognise that no change is free of risk, but we recommend a vote for Mr Rudd’.

  6. Just read the Australian editorial and having picked myself up off the floor thought the following couple of paragraphs made some telling points:

    “The Australian has been portrayed by many people as an unquestioning supporter of the Howard Government. The truth is we exposed the children overboard affair, we pursued the Government over AWB, we argued passionately for tax reform, to the annoyance of Mr Costello. We exposed the weakness of the case against terror suspect Mohamed Haneef and were vocal about Mr Costello’s ill-advised appointment of businessman Robert Gerard to the Reserve Bank board.

    The truth is we are not so interested in one side of politics or the other. We advocate a set of principles that have motivated us for 40 years: an open economy, markets, international engagement, reform of the federation and labour market deregulation. With the caveat of industrial relations, Mr Rudd shares many of our reform ideals. We believe it is a new century and that Australia deserves a leader who reflects Australia’s character and position in a rapidly changing world and fast-growing region.”

    That said, I can’t help wondering if they have been a bit embarrased by the reputation they have been acquiring lately as arse lickers for the government and see this an an opportunity to get that monkey off their back.

  7. it seems one or more of my posts have disturbed william (or his filter) – this is ENTIRELY possible as i tend to post here late at night after a few beers. (and i’m passionately anti ljh)

    in order to understand this imposition of restrictions to freedom of speech, may i humbly request the post that lead to the moderation be sent to me (so i know what it is that the moderator objects 2).

    otherwise, this is the BEST blog (apart from the tab) πŸ˜‰

  8. [Darn @ 1362, I believe Mitchell (the editor) is the godfather of Rudd’s son.]

    Good to see he supports Compare Kevin then πŸ™‚

  9. Looks like the poll sample for this 57/43 is almost 3500. A massive massive set of numbers…

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/howard-needs-a-miracle/2007/11/22/1195321949364.html

    The poll sampled 2071 voters between Monday and Wednesday and its findings are supported by a separate Herald/Nielsen online poll, which sampled 1421 voters over the same period.

    Forget about the 1200 on the Galaxy, The MOE on this would be about 2%, if I’m not wrong.

  10. Primary ACN in Age shows Lab 48 LNP 40. It’s not going to be close on those figures. Nor on 57-43 2pp for that matter. Worst outcome on MoE seems to be about 54-46.

    We still need Newspoll to get a final estimate, but my guess (going on the long-term trends) is about 54.5-45.5.

    We are in unprecedented waters.

  11. [Like The West was pissed off when he rolled Beazley.]

    Like everyone else in Oz will be pissed off with the west if they roll Rudd

  12. The Oz today have just proved beyond doubt what an utter useless shit-rag it is.

    their “journalists” should all be ashamed of themselves as i’m sure a lot of their peers are ashamed of them.

    It is with great joy that Rupert…that old fart , who is nearly to depart this earth…has been exposed as far far less influential than anybody gives him credit for.

    i repeat…..

    what a shit-rag The Oz is……..and everyone knows it.

  13. The GG endorsement is a Clayton’s special. It is not an endorsement of any kind. Apart from a number of history re-writes, there are parts where they have handled the truth very loosley.

    Also found this gem embedded in an article which shows a lot about leopards and spots,

    “Earlier in his decades-long parliamentary career, Mr Howard gained the ironic nickname of “Honest John” – which has dogged him since.

    A survey this year showed voters thought Labor leader Kevin Rudd was twice as likely to tell the truth as Mr Howard.”

    What an absolute blight on the history of Aussie politicians from all quarters JWH has been. Oh yes, he will be remembered, for all the wrong reasons.

  14. All true Mad Max, all very true. The Oz has been complicit in perpetuating the Howard lies and myths.

    Wonder how many interviews and inside gossip will be flowing Shameahans way over the next few years, methinks he will be a lonely boy πŸ™‚

  15. Fake pamphlet story on International BBC News radio. Interviews with Australian Muslims saying they’re sick of being used as political punching bags and then Howard saying he had nothing to do with it.

  16. In all this polls hype I think the betting has been overlooked, but just been over to the Portlandbet seat by seat listing and Petrie has now crossed over to Labor – this gives them 82 seats on Prtlandbet, and others are closing in.

  17. 1375 Let It End – it won’t happen.
    The West can’t influence this election result… most of their seats are already Coalition controlled. The worst possible result for Labor there is a net gain of 0 seats. And while ALP would like to pick up Hasluck and preferably one or two other marginals, it isn’t necessary for them to win this election, and win strongly.

  18. hugorune @ 1383

    Yeah I know mate, it’ll be all over before they finish voting. Just disappointed with the west swimming against the tide

  19. Markets – Petrie gawn to Labor on PBet @ $1.80 changed sides today.
    Bennelong McKew @ $2.15 in from $2.25 last night. Can PM Rodent hang on to favouritism in his own seat till the end?
    Others to firm today for ALP included Kalgoorlie, Ryan, Sturt, Paterson, Grey, Dunkley, Hughes, Macarthur, North Sydney, Menzies and McMillan which is borderline now in most betting shops. With 21 or so seats showing favouritism for a Labor gain, the punters are also betting for a 26-27 seat gain as favourite in a separate game. Needless to say there is a lot of disagreement as to which additional five or six seats would make up that 26-27.

  20. And while ALP would like to pick up Hasluck and preferably one or two other marginals, it isn’t necessary for them to win this election, and win strongly.

    From a sanity perspective – I am obliged to disagree. While I would accept a simple change of government – what I really want is a landslide. It’s all about the message.

  21. Let It End 1380

    Reminds me of a song.

    Lonely Boy.

    Shamsofhimself could seek a bit of company at Woolstonecraft.

    The Leader of the Opposition may even be at lunch. For a first.

  22. Right, that’s it for now.

    Heard myself on the wireless. Nothing as cool as Nicole.

    Telstra tomorrow. Broadband, at last.

    Have to jump to it am and cut some shrubbery, for the cable.

    Night all.

  23. MGM

    have no faith in the betting markets because:

    1/ punters have backed Labor into a short priced favourite BEFORE the campaign even began and up to last weekend due to ALL 4 Polls showing 9 months CONSISTENT big leads to Labor

    2/ Therefore the ‘weight’ of money bet in the 9 months was never going to cause Labor’s odds to “ease” EVER AT ALL

    3/ The result was that bookies to “off lay” their huge loss book on a Labor win
    had to encourage punters into the seat by seat market

    The Bookies commenced this ‘encouragement’ of punters from BEFORE the campaign began by offering “over the odds” in about the most marginal 30 individual seats.

    Naturally punters have taken the ‘above the odds’ seat bets causing this tightening by seat

    This spreads the bookies bets UNLESS there is a landslide
    which the bookies are not predicting

    The betting on this Election is DIFFERENT FROM ALL PREVIOUS ELECTIONS
    because of the unusual situation of 9 months of consistent polling showing one Party to win easily

    IN the past , when this has not been the case , following the money WAS a good method of picking the winner. @007 election is different due to the above

  24. He emphasised the Government’s strong economic performance over the past decade and said Labor had not earned the right to govern because of its “obstructionist and guerilla …

    Eh?

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