ACNielsen: 57-43

Not sure where he heard this, but the more than reliable Possum Comitatus hears tomorrow’s ACNielsen will show 55-45.

UPDATE: Now the Channel Seven News tells us it’s 57-43. Either ACNielsen or Galaxy are going to look at bit silly come Sunday.

Nov 23
57 43 ? ?
Nov 16
54 46 47 43
Nov 2
55 45 48 41
Oct 19
54 46 48 42
Oct 6
56 44 47 40
Sep 8
57 43 49 39
Aug 11
55 45 46 41
Jul 14
58 42 49 39
Jun 16
57 43 48 39
May 19
58 42 48 39
April 21
58 42 50 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,408 comments on “ACNielsen: 57-43”

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  1. [One says 55-45 and the other says 52-48โ€ฆ shows that the polls are so unreliable, really.]

    It will be interesting to see the differences in primaries most of all before we jump to any conclusions

  2. Not sure whether I posted this earlier but Kellygate reminds me of Ralph Willis releasing the fake Costello letter in ’96 – something which Keating forever blamed for his defeat (somewhat unfairly)

  3. Just asked Poss to drop by this thread and provide some substantiation – not that I don’t trust him implicitly, just seeking confirmation…

  4. This popped up on my iGoogle home page today…

    To predict the behaviour of ordinary people in advance, you only have to assume that they will always try to escape a disagreeable situation with the smallest possible expenditure of intelligence.
    – Friedrich Nietzsche

    I think it sums up the antics in Lindsay today.

    And with Nielsen on 55-45 things are humming along nicely for a Labor victory.

  5. remember the difference between recent Galaxy and Newspoll marginal polls. This is no different. A look across all four polls (maybe not Morgan) will be the best guide.

  6. Has Galaxy come up with this 52-48 in their polls in the last, say, 6 months?!?
    If this is just another fresh poll (with 1-2k sample size), I wouldnโ€™t take it seriously.
    By now pollsters should announce their aggregated poll, weighting over the last few months. That would be more convincing.

  7. Phew!

    52-48 or 50-50 just couldn’t have been right. This is more like it.

    Come Sat 57-43 should be the go after Lindsaygate

  8. Regardless of what the polls say now we know it simply couldn’t be 52/48

    The LNP have had the worst campaign possible and Labor has been on song throughout. Galaxy have been low most of the year whilst Newspoll and Nielsen have backed each other reasonably well – and that has been until very recently 54-55, which the Morgan phone poll backs. The lowest it could be right now is 53/47.

    If anything Howard’s vote should go backwards and if it gets anyworse 55/45 may well end up the election result.

  9. Actually Spiros, that’s not right. It would be exceedingly close at 52:48. Due to the anture of things, Labor needs slightly higher vote than theL/NP jsut to break even.

  10. Glen 57 — Labor would win most of the time with 52 even assuming a non-uniform swing. Although they would miss some low swing seats, they would also pick up some above the average swing.

  11. When the Daily Terror endorses Labor, then you know the game is over for the Govt. So be relax and comfortable, as the man would tell you.

  12. For those who think these national polls are meaningless, lest we forget………Graham Richardson would have access to far more extensive internal Labor Party polling of marginal seats, and Sunday night on Nine he called it 80 seats for Labor.

    Richo has been on the money calling the result correctly for 30 years. If anything he would be prone to offer a conservative prediction.

  13. No Glen, you’ve got it completely backwards. If the swing was uniform, then Labor might not get up with 52:48, according to the pendulum.

    But the swing will not be uniform. We know that already from the state polling.

  14. Newspoll and ACN release polls regularly election or no election. Galaxy pops its head up 2 months before an election then disappears.

    I reckon Briggs reads tea leaves and hopes some sucker believes him. Didn’t work in the Qld election – he reckoned the Nats were a real chance.

  15. 52-48 could be right, why do people discount it. Galaxy have no doubt asked a bunch of voters the questions, done the maths and this is thier result. I do not much go for the theory that polling companies much around with results other than the fact the chose to round the numbers instead of giving us a decimal point.

    I just think treating all the polls as one sample is far more accurate and history has shown that to be the case. Please use reason and stop sounding like Colingwood supporters who wont see things objectively and in context.

  16. There is no way in the world that the ALP 2pp vote on election night will be anything less than 53 – and that would be their worst result in the current polling and political climate. It’s been locked in too far for too long – and the Libs campaign this last week has been shite. Anything less than 54 on the night would be a turn up.

  17. Yes Daniel B, I agree. If ACN and Newspoll come in at 53+ then it would be hard to believe that the actual result will be much lower than 53.

  18. Saw the PM on Ten news looked very desperate begging for votes, we are a good government, the case for change has not been made, yet another lie.

  19. People dismiss Galaxy because they’re afraid it could be right. My feeling is it’ll be closer to Galaxy than ACN on the night.

  20. After reading Possum’s site, I don’t think he is giving the 55-45 figure from an authoritative source.

    Happy to be proved wrong.

  21. Just keeping some balance. I still think the polls point to a likely ALP victory, but I think it’ll be extremely tight and not even the parties can tell how its going to go.

  22. Galaxy has proved itself as unreliable as dodgy leaflet in a Liberal Party bunker. Remember the Galaxy outlier produced to bolster the PM when he was under threat some months ago: then it was secured by using push polling questions before the poll was taken to produce a better result for the Coalition. Other polls round the time were telling a different story. Was this latest Galaxy Poll preceded by dubious questions?

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