ACNielsen: 57-43

Not sure where he heard this, but the more than reliable Possum Comitatus hears tomorrow’s ACNielsen will show 55-45.

UPDATE: Now the Channel Seven News tells us it’s 57-43. Either ACNielsen or Galaxy are going to look at bit silly come Sunday.

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Nov 23
 57 43 ? ?
Nov 16
 54 46 47 43
Nov 2
 55 45 48 41
Oct 19
 54 46 48 42
Oct 6
 56 44 47 40
Sep 8
 57 43 49 39
Aug 11
 55 45 46 41
Jul 14
 58 42 49 39
Jun 16
 57 43 48 39
May 19
 58 42 48 39
April 21
 58 42 50 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,408 comments on “ACNielsen: 57-43”

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  1. From todays Australian editorial

    “The latest polling, both Galaxy and Newspoll (which was still polling last night), shows the Coalition is coming home strongly and the contest is likely to be tight”

    Does this mean they have already got preliminary results from the Newspoll?

  4. ‘But sources from both main parties believed that the Herald poll more accurately reflected what their internal polling had found.’

    game set and match

  5. K Jin. i wish i got in early! i’ve only been here 2 years. grew up in mudgeeraba on the gold coast… then went via london, sydney back to bris.

  7. Senate.

    Numerous calling tonight to ask me why they should vote Green rather than Nick X.

    Given, I had already put the idea into their heads.

    Explained. That Nick, whatever, will get in. That Nick has Family First in his preferences. That Nick is ambiguous, Work Choices.

    That Australia could do with Greens. Upper House. No stuffing about with Work Choices. Climate Change et al.

    That one will temper the other.

    Decision, House of Reps, Boothby, Nicole? Despite?

    Definitely, notwithstanding.

  8. ESJ – sorry for missing the irony in your free speech on my PB post last evening and sorry too William for unthinkingly straying into the essential tech discussion zone, due to my not keeping up with the rapid fire accumulation of posts. My own post yesterday intended only to give voice to “our” appreciation of the effort and expertise which William has applied to create and sustain this wonderful forum.

  9. Just to expand Blacklight’s quote

    “A Galaxy Poll to be printed in News Ltd newspapers today shows the election to be a tight contest, with the two main parties tied on 42.5 per cent of the primary vote and Labor leading by 52 per cent to 48 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.

    But sources from both main parties believed that the Herald poll more accurately reflected what their internal polling had found.”

  10. http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/last-figures-show-howard-needs-a-miracle/2007/11/22/1195321949364.html?page=2

    A Galaxy Poll to be printed in News Ltd newspapers today shows the election to be a tight contest, with the two main parties tied on 42.5 per cent of the primary vote and Labor leading by 52 per cent to 48 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis.

    But sources from both main parties believed that the Herald poll more accurately reflected what their internal polling had found.

  12. TO WILLIAM

    on ‘www.aec.gov the following are shown as 2004 election LABOR results on 2 PP:

    NSW 48.07
    Q’LD 49.00
    VIC 42.91
    SA 45.64
    WA 44.60
    TAS 54.19
    TOTAL 47.26

    I thought Labor got 46.3 2PP in 2004
    Are the above STATE 2 PP figures what you guys have ???????????

    thanks

  13. Middle man 2 years ago is now early. Yes Not at the start but that was way before most folks. I am sure u are doing very well after 2 years. Now would be the time to double up. Ride the Rudd boom !

  14. Kjin and Aussieguru,I was raised in Cannon Hill,mother and sister still live there.I went school at St Oliver Plunkett(was Blessed when I was a kid)My wife and I bought into Hawthorne(where my parents were born and raised),sold up in ’94 and we live at Mansfield now.It’s a small world.BTW I’m still a member of the Cannon/Morningside Branch and have been so for over 30years

  15. Howard’s last pitch press conference with Costello tomorrow.

    “Compadres, it is imperative that we crush the freedom fighters before the start of the rainy season. And remember, a shiny new donkey for whoever brings me the head of Colonel Montoya. (Costello whispers to him) And by that, I mean, it’s not time for change.”

  16. Dyno,

    Happy to debate this at another time.

    However, the reason people of all persuasions go in to politics is to affect outcomes. Kernot clearly decided that being a Democrat did not fulfill her personal desire to be a “player”.

    She at least had the honesty to get out when she felt she could not do the job of a Democrat leader.

  18. latest Herald/Nielsen poll shows.

    The poll sampled 2071 voters between Monday and Wednesday and its findings are supported by a separate Herald/Nielsen online poll, which sampled 1421 voters over the same period.

    Labor leads the primary vote by 48 per cent to 40 per cent, giving it a two-party-preferred lead of 57 per cent to 43 per cent.

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/federal-election-2007-news/last-figures-show-howard-needs-a-miracle/2007/11/22/1195321949364.html

  21. We are home and hosed,as I’ve said many times on this Forum,over the past couple of weeks,the swing in Qld is massive and growing.I still suspect the swing in Sydney will also be huge and the regions a little less so.

  24. I am also from Rudd’s electorate and remember some of the great local campaigns he ran – especially in 2001 his ‘Keep Kevin in Canberra’ posters were seemingly everywhere. Also I doubt that due to the wanna-be affluence of the inner-south of Brisbane seemingly discovering that Bulimba has some nice places to eat and the best cinema in the city really means that the seat is in danger. I think there might be a small swing away from Rudd as I remember hearing during the election last year that Rudd was the only sitting ALP member who had a positive swing. The Liberal candidate here has run a fairly unimpressive campaign (but who could blame him for not having all his heart in it) and even the PM couldn’t remember his name.

  25. Bob from Bonner
    I remember when I was a kid, Oliver Plunket was something that was far off, off to the side (as u no very close to cannon Hill) something very outside my experience. Although by grade 4 I played on the weekend tennis on there courts.

  26. Middle man @ 1270
    There’s no Morningside Branch,it was folded into Cannon Hill decades ago.But I think there is still a Bulimba Branch.Talk to the local Councillor Shayne Sutton,she’ll steer you right.

  32. Homer: Union rule 26. “Every employee must win ‘Worker of the Week’ at least once, regardless of gross incompetence, obesity, or rank odor.” Heh heh heh heh

  34. Very small world B from B. MM I’m a 70’s kid too. Work as a safety officer these days but started off as a Builders laborer. Now days its Kids , Family, work & so on.
    I love Coorparoo & its great to near &close to everything. An apple does not fall far from its tree!

  37. K jin you’re a young’in then???
    I’m 53,been around this part of the southside as long as I can remember and involved with the Party since I was 8(My old man was the Branch President during the split,he saved the Cannon Hill Branch.He had great stories about the Party and some of its colourful characters).

  41. I wonder what the sample size from Galaxy was. 2000 for the Neilsen, and 1400 from the Neilsen Online, both saying 57 is pretty hard to argue with.

  45. Speers Sky News: The ALP has apparently been taken over – “conquered” if you will – by a master race of Union bosses. It’s difficult to tell from this vantage point whether they will consume the captive earth men or merely enslave them. One thing is for certain. There is no stopping them; the ALP will soon be here. And I for one welcome our new Union overlords. I’d like to remind them that as a trusted TV personality, I could be helpful in rounding up others to toil in their underground geothermal caves.

  47. The Libs have had there final days of the campaign grossely affected by this lindsay incident which isnt going to go away tommorow. It is most likely going to shore up soft votes, sway some undecided people and even mite be a last minite vote changer. None of the polls will factor that in

  48. Not to mention Quimby’s brilliant election tag-line “Vote Quimby – If you were running for Mayor, he’d vote for you”

    thankyou for bringing up the sample sizes – I was wondering about them.

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