ACNielsen: 57-43

Not sure where he heard this, but the more than reliable Possum Comitatus hears tomorrow’s ACNielsen will show 55-45.

UPDATE: Now the Channel Seven News tells us it’s 57-43. Either ACNielsen or Galaxy are going to look at bit silly come Sunday.

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Nov 23
 57 43 ? ?
Nov 16
 54 46 47 43
Nov 2
 55 45 48 41
Oct 19
 54 46 48 42
Oct 6
 56 44 47 40
Sep 8
 57 43 49 39
Aug 11
 55 45 46 41
Jul 14
 58 42 49 39
Jun 16
 57 43 48 39
May 19
 58 42 48 39
April 21
 58 42 50 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,408 comments on “ACNielsen: 57-43”

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  4. I do not think Rudd will get the biggest swing. All the folks on this blog who live here like me know that Griffith is now becoming a very swish sort of place at least where I live.
    Rudd used to really work the area.
    He did it well.
    Now parts of it are becoming very inner city.
    Indeed when I look down on the snobs of bulimba I shake my head in a haughty way.

  5. you know what sums this election up for me? on the citycat to work on wed my mate says to me, “i dont see much difference between them. Except for decency of course”. and i think that one word sums it up. Rudd used it a number of times during his fireside chat with Red Kez.

  6. Glen,

    You asked where they went. How they got there, well it says everything about a party designed to never make a decision, making a decison.

  10. Not sure if its been mentioned yet, but Petrie has gone across to Labor on Centrebet and Portlandbet at 1.80/1.90. Thats 82 seats where ALP is in front on Portlandbet.

  13. GG @ 1206,
    One day they were going to have to take a stand on something, I guess.
    I still think Kernot’s got a lot to answer for, though. Right up there with Billy Hughes, surely?
    Also, although the Dems served a purpose, it should never be forgotten that they were founded purely because Chipp got p*ssed off about being overlooked for the Fraser ministry.
    All our other political parties were founded for some greater purpose than that (except perhaps One Nation).

  20. ACN also has LNP ahead in WA, which means the eastern states must be swinging big time.

    Also says Vic swing is big – so there’s one major dissonance with Newspoll (and probably galaxy)

  24. BenC 1210

    A Labor friend who lives in Petrie was thrilled (NOT) to find a begging message from JH on his answering machine today, which prompted me to say that Petrie must be in danger, from the Coalition point of view. Sounds like my uninformed guess was right!

  31. Ben Cubby (SMH) told Tony Delroy (ABC Local Radio) that the Government ‘faces annihilation’ at the election on the weekend.
    A Herald/AC Nielsen poll has Labor leading on a primary vote of 48 to 40, and a 2pp of 57 to 43.

    If preferences are allocated based on the distribution at the 2004 Federal Election, then the 2pp would be 56 to 44.

    I don’t know how the first 2pp figure was derived.

  33. Dyno,

    Kernot wanted to be in a party that made decisions and were accountable. Eventually, she could not bear the indecision that is the charm and charisma of the Democrats.

    At least when she left she resigned from the Parliament to allow another Democrat to take over. The comparison with Hughes is unfair.

  34. Mmm, screw sleep. This is going to be special. I first voted in 1980 and I’ve never been this excited before. Hell, I’m not even this excited at Christmas. Whoo!

  38. 1216
    Aussieguru01 Says:
    November 23rd, 2007 at 12:07 am
    Bulimba has changed from working class 20 years ago to elite yuppie these days…nice area thou

    and middleman
    admit it u are like the rudds and took advantage of it.(though the rudds would/do not care )
    Only I am unaware of what was going on.

  41. Although, any primary votes of high 40s for one party as opposed to low 40s for the other would lead one to think that the first was going to win.

  43. GG @ 1233,
    Afraid I don’t have the energy to mount a prolonged argument, but it seems odd that someone can go all the way to become leader of a party before they discover that it’s not worth belonging to.
    It’s bad form to do what she did, however you look at it.

  44. Ron Brown @ 1194 – if you’re playing with the numbers, then check this: an evenly spread 56-44 2PP in Qld, by itself gives a majority to Labor. That’s the sort of territory we’re talking about.

  45. I think the biggest negative about Rudd winning will be having to put up with Keating lecturing us on how he didn’t really lose the 1996 election and acting like Labor under Rudd needs him.

  46. AC Nielsen is the one that I feel reflects the true state of things.

    It’ll be 57-43 on the night, just you wait and see.

  47. Are these figures correct Galaxy poll shows Labor with a primary vote of 52 per cent and the Coalition with 48 per cent?

    Poll shows Coalition closing on Labor:

    THE Coalition’s election hopes have been bolstered by a poll putting it closer to Labor than any time during the election campaign.

    The Galaxy poll, published tomorrow in News Ltd publications, reportedly has Labor with a primary vote of 52 per cent and the Coalition with 48 per cent.

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22802562-601,00.html

  49. Listen folks,

    Howard can still win. Keep in mind, Rudd still has to win 16 seats (and lose nothing) and sometimes the math looks real scary. Right now the polls say that the ALP lead Libs by a 4 point margin, 52% – 48%.

    Howard only needs 48.5% to hold power.

    All he has to do is NOT lose. Not losing is easier than winning.

    Lets keep the champagne on ice until the fat lady has sung…OK?

  50. None taken Aussieguru. I’m the classic 70’s kid from a working class family who was given an opportunity via free university to get ahead. so i took it and i did. but you never forget your roots. I’ve long struggled with the desire to join and run, but i’m not sure my ‘colourful’ past would quite cut in this day and age.

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