Category: Western Australian Politics

Miscellany: by-elections latest (open thread)

Major party starters in place for Fadden, a date set for Rockingham, and nine candidates emerge for Liberal preselection in Warrandyte.

News to report on the three by-elections presently in view – one federal and two state, two with dates confirmed and one to be announced:

• The Liberal National Party candidate for the Fadden by-election on July 15 will be long-serving Gold Coast councillor Cameron Caldwell, who won a final round vote of 153 preselectors over Dinesh Palipana, with Fran Ward, Owen Caterer and Craig Hobart falling by the wayside in earlier rounds. Lydia Lynch of The Australian reports a meeting of Labor’s administrative committee last Friday unanimously endorsed Letitia Del Fabbro, a nurse educator who was also the candidate at the May 2022 election.

• Nine candidates have nominated for Liberal preselection in Warrandyte, expected to be held in about a fortnight, controversial former Kew MP Tim Smith not being among them. As reported by Rachel Baxendale in The Australian, they are John Roskam, former executive director of the Institute of Public Affairs; Sarah Overton, KPMG director; Nicole Ta-Ei Werner, who ran in Box Hill at the November state election; Jason McClintock, a tech business founder who ran in Eltham (and who donated heavily to the party’s state election campaign); David Farrelly, who ran in Pakenham; Jemma Townson, “energy industry communications director and former Matthew Guy and Katie Allen staffer”; Antonietta di Cosmo, 22-year-old “Ryan Smith staffer, champion rower and law student”; Allison Troth, “cancer campaigner and former John Howard staffer”; and Andrew Conlon, “Manningham councillor and maths teacher”. The report says factional conservatives are likely to back Roskam or Werner, while “an opposing factional grouping that coalesces around powerbrokers Frank Greenstein and Holly Byrne” might support Overton, McClintock or Townson.

• The Rockingham by-election to replace Mark McGowan has been set for July 29. The West Australian reports that Labor’s candidate will likely be Magenta Marshall, who has won backing from the Right, despite last week saying she was “not sure it’s my time”. Marshall is in her late twenties and works in a “specialised campaigning role” in party headquarters, having previously been an electorate officer to Balcatta MP David Michael.

Utting Research: 61-39 to Labor in Western Australia

The first Western Australian state poll of any kind since the March 2021 election finds that even without the McGowan factor, Labor’s primary vote still has a five in front of it.

The West Australian has results from a poll it commissioned from Utting Research on Wednesday, which is the first voting intention poll from the state since the March 2021 election. It inevitably finds Labor coming down from its 69.7-30.3 win on two-party preferred at the election, but not by so much as to offer it serious discouragement, with a government now led by Roger Cook holding a lead of 61-39. The primary votes are Labor 52% (59.9% at the election), Liberal 28% (21.3%), Nationals 5% (4.0%) and Greens 8% (6.9%).

Leadership ratings were gauged for Roger Cook, Mark McGowan and Liberal leader Libby Mettam – the formal mantle of Opposition Leader in fact belongs to Nationals leader Shane Love, whose party holds four lower house seats to the Liberals’ two, although there have been negotiations to transfer the role to Mettam before the next election is held. Cook holds an approval rating of 42% and a disapproval rating of 26%, while Mettam registers 31% approval and 33% disapproval, with McGowan towering above both at 68% and 19%. Cook leads Mettam as preferred premier by 50-24. The poll had a sample of 800, and I assume was conducted by automated phone polling.

What follows is a wrap-up of electorally relevant state political news from the last few months. So far as the Rockingham by-election is concerned, I know of nothing to add from the previous post.

• Josh Zimmerman of The West Australian reported in March that Bill Johnston, whose formidable portfolio load encompasses mines, energy, industrial relations and corrective services, was considered likely to retire at the next election by “multiple sources within the WA Labor Party”. That would create a vacancy in his eastern suburbs seat of Cannington, which is safe for Labor at the worst of times and presently held on a margin of 30.4%.

• Joe Spagnolo of The Sunday Times reports that former Liberal leader and Dawesville MP Zak Kirkup says his favoured seat for a political comeback would be Churchlands, where he presently resides, but which has been associated with the ambitions of Perth Lord Mayor Basil Zempilas. However, Kirkup also allows that South Perth would “sit quite well”, with Spagnolo’s sources saying Zempilas would be favoured in a preselection contest.

• Josh Zimmerman of The West Australian reported in April that David Honey “appears certain” to face a preselection challenge in Cottesloe, with “a growing belief that he would be dumped”. Property Council executive director Sandra Brewer, who sought preselection to succeed Colin Barnett in the seat in 2018, was rated a possible starter.

• Josh Zimmerman of The West Australian reports Liberal MLC Nick Goiran, whose factional activities as a figurehead of “the Clan” have been under intense scrutiny, remains determined to run again at the 2025 election.

Miscellany: by-elections left and right (open thread)

As the major parties move forward with candidate selection for Fadden, state by-elections now loom in Victoria and Western Australia.

There are now three by-elections in the pipeline, one federal and two state:

• The Gold Coast Bulletin reports a Liberal National Party preselection vote for the July 25 Fadden by-election this weekend has attracted five candidates: the reputed front-runner, Cameron Caldwell; two widely noted rivals with strong support in Dinesh Palipana and Fran Ward; and apparent dark horses in Owen Caterer, who boasts “a long career in wealth management” including a decade working in China, and Craig Hobart. Labor is now committed to fielding a candidate, after earlier reports that Anthony Albanese would prefer to forfeit, with David Crowe of the Age/Herald reporting that the candidate from 2022, Letitia Del Fabbro, was “seen as the leading contender”.

• In Victoria, Liberal MP Ryan Smith announced his resignation on Wednesday, initiating a by-election in his eastern suburbs seat of Warrandyte, which he retained at the November election by 4.2% with a slight favourable swing. This has yielded the stimulating possibility of a return to politics for Tim Smith, who tested over double the legal blood alcohol limit in 2021 after crashing his car into the side of a house in Hawthorn, and abandoned his seat of Kew at the election. Smith had won favour with conservatives for the vehemence of his attacks on Daniel Andrews during the Melbourne lockdowns, and has presumably continued to do so as a regular on Sky News. His comments professing an interest in the seat were implicitly critical of party leader John Pesutto, who says he would “very much like to see a woman in amongst the candidates”. Between reports in The Age and The Guardian, five such are mentioned: Caroline Inge, one of the party’s federal vice-presidents and a “former staffer and political ally” of Smith; Sarah Overton, a director at KPMG; Michelle Kleinert, a Manningham councillor; Nicole Werner, a former Pentecostal pastor who ran at the election in Box Hill; and Ranjana Srivastava, an oncologist who was recently fortunate to be overlooked for the Aston preselection. The Guardian reports the by-election is “expected to be held between 5 August and 30 September”.

• The West Australian reports three Labor preselection candidates have emerged as potential successors to Mark McGowan in his surely unloseable southern Perth seat of Rockingham. These are Matt Dixon, who was the party’s state secretary in 2018 and 2019, and has more recently been a staffer to Stephen Dawson, Emergency Services Minister and a prominent figure in the AMWU sub-faction of the Left; Clem Chan, state president of the United Professional Firefighters Union; and Magenta Marshall, a locally based party official. However, there is said to be concern that Dixon’s candidacy would be “a distraction” due to the circumstances of his departure as state secretary, which followed controversy over the use of funds raised by state parliamentarians on the 2019 federal campaign, and Marshall is quoted saying she is “not sure it’s my time”. Electoral commissioner Robert Kennedy tells The West Australian the by-election is likely to be in late June or July.

Also of note:

• Maria Kovacic, who stood aside as the party’s state president to contest the preselection, won a Liberal Party ballot on the weekend to fill the late Jim Molan’s New South Wales Senate vacancy. Kovacic prevailed in the final round over Andrew Constance, former state government minister and unsuccessful candidate for Gilmore at last year’s election, by 287 votes to 243. Kovacic’s win means a seat formerly held by a factional conservative now goes to a moderate. Constance, who is also a moderate, gained some support from conservatives by promising to abandon the seat at the next federal election for another run in Gilmore, which is still considered likely to do. Anthony Galloway of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the seat would likely have stayed with the right if Dallas McInerney, chief executive of Catholic Schools NSW, had nominated, but in the event the only right nominee was Jess Collins, who narrowly failed to make the final round. Earlier exclusions were Space Industry Association chief executive James Brown, former Lindsay MP Fiona Scott and Shepherd Centre executive David Brady.

• An analysis by former Labor Senator John Black of Australian Development Strategies in the Financial Review identifies Labor’s targets to regain lost primary votes as working families on $100,000 to $150,000 a year, “digitally disrupted families” on $50,000 to $100,000, parents with children at state schools, and Christians who have supported Labor only under the leadership of Kevin Rudd; and the Coalition’s as white migrants, defectors in the teal seats, professional women on more than $150,000 a year, and professionals and the 35-to-50 age cohort.

• Rhianna Down of The Australian reports Anthony Albanese told colleagues on Tuesday that Labor’s target Liberal-held seats for the next election are Canning, Moore, Bass, Braddon, Banks, Menzies and Sturt, though presumably hopes for the first two have taken a knock with Mark McGowan’s resignation.

• Charlotte Varcoe of Border Watch reports Liberal MP Tony Pasin won a preselection ballot for his South Australian seat of Barker with 284 votes against 58 for Katherine McBride, who owns grazing property with husband Nick McBride, the state member for MacKillop.

Mark McGowan resigns

Australia’s most popular political leader unexpectedly calls it a day.

Tuesday update

Roger Cook, who has served as Labor’s deputy leader ever since he first entered parliament in 2008, and as Deputy Premier since the government came to power in 2017, has emerged from a day of factional manoeuvring as the winner by acclamation of the party room. This was despite the parliamentary membership of the sub-faction associated with the United Workers Union, which dominates the Left and claims Cook among its number, voting 17 to 11 yesterday to favour the alternative claim of Health Minister Amber-Jade Sanderson. However, Cook was then able to gain the support of the other major Left union, the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, after entering a unity ticket with Rita Saffioti, who abandoned her own pitch for the leadership in a deal that will secure her the deputy leadership and, The West Australian reports, the Treasury portfolio. The Right faction will reportedly complete the formality of backing Cook at a meeting tomorrow. A contested race would have required a ballot of the membership, which the party hierarchy was keen to avoid as it would have taken four weeks to conduct.

Original post

Mark McGowan has announced his unexpected departure from politics, having been Premier of Western Australia since 2017 and led Labor to what was by some distance the most sweeping election victory ever recorded in Australia in 2021, professing himself “exhausted”. As well as a initiating a by-election in his seat of Rockingham, which should be purely a formality for Labor, it also leaves open the question of the next Premier – The West Australian reports this “will either be Deputy Premier Roger Cook or Health Minister Amber-Jade Sanderson”.

UPDATE: The West Australian has a piece on potential successors that further includes Transport and Planning Minister Rita Saffioti, who I would have assumed to be a contender.

Miscellany: by-elections and WA leadership poll (open thread)

Five candidates for the Aston by-election; defeated Liberals eye comeback bids; Mark McGowan’s personal ratings come off slightly.

With not much happening on the polling front his week, there is the following to relate:

• There is a modest field of five candidates for the April 1 by-election for Aston, which I’ve had less to say about than I would have liked due to the distraction of New South Wales. Following the ballot paper draw last Thursday, they are in order: Owen Miller (Fusion), Roshena Campbell (Liberal), Angelica Di Camillo (Greens), Mary Doyle (Labor) and Maya Tesa (Independent). Pauline Hanson interestingly offered last week that One Nation had decided to stay out of it as a “strategic decision not to take votes away from the Coalition”.

• Paul Sakkal of The Age reports that not only have Monique Ryan’s recent difficulties encouraged Josh Frydenberg in his determination to recontest Kooyong at the election, but that Tim Wilson and Katie Allen have similar ideas about Goldstein and Higgins, which they respectively lost to teal independent Zoe Daniel and Labor’s Michelle Ananda-Rajah.

• A by-election will be held in the Northern Territory on Saturday for the seat of Arafura following the death of Labor member Lawrence Costa. The candidates in ballot paper order are Leslie Tungatalum (Country Liberals), Manuel Brown (Labor) and Alan Middleton (Federation Party).

• The West Australian reports a rare item of state political polling crediting Mark McGowan with an approval rating of 63%, down seven since October, with disapproval up six to 24%. New Liberal leader Libby Mettam debuts with 24% approval and 18% disapproval. The poll was conducted “last week” by Painted Dog Research from a sample of 1052.

The spoils of defeat

A changing of the guard among what remains of the conservative forces in Western Australia.

After a weekend of convulsions among what remains of the parliamentary ranks of the Liberals and Nationals in Western Australia, both parties settled on new leaders yesterday, with Moore MP Shane Love taking the mantle of Opposition Leader as head of the Nationals, who have four seats in the lower house, and Vasse MP Libby Mettam emerging leader of the Liberals, who have two. To deal with the developments in turn:

• The ball began to roll when Mia Davies, who has led the Nationals and hence the opposition since the 2021 election, unexpectedly announced her resignation on Friday, though she will serve out her term as member for Central Wheatbelt. With North West Central MP only having served in parliament since a by-election in September, this left the the party’s other two lower house members, Moore MP Shane Love and Roe MP Peter Rundle, as the only plausible successors (the party has a further three seats in the Legislative Council). Rundle declared himself a “potential contender” on Sunday, but in the event Love was chosen unopposed, with Rundle replacing him as deputy.

• Hours after Mia Davies’ announcement on Friday, Vasse MP Libby Mettam launched her long-anticipated challenge against her only Liberal lower house colleague, Cottesloe MP David Honey. This left the matter effectively to be determined by the party’s seven Legislative Council members, with weekend reports suggesting five were lining up behind Mettam (Tjorn Sibma from North Metropolitan region, who uniquely went on the record, together with Peter Collier from North Metropolitan, Steve Thomas from South West, Steve Martin from Agricultural and Donna Faragher from East Metropolitan), with Honey claiming the support only of Nick Goiran from South Metropolitan and Neil Thomson from Mining and Pastoral. Honey duly conceded defeat and left Mettam to take the position unopposed. Steve Thomas was also elected unopposed to succeed Mettam as deputy.

Liberal internal affairs have been dominated over the past 18 months by controversy over the machinations of “the Clan”, a loose factional grouping including Nick Goiran and Peter Collier, together with Mathias Cormann before he quit federal politics in October 2020. Mettam sought to seize the initiative yesterday by announcing that Goiran, a religious conservative with an extensive network of support in the party’s southern Perth branches, would be excluded from the shadow ministry, which since the 2021 election has found places for all Liberal and Nationals members.

On the other side of the aisle, Labor is negotiating a less consequential but electorally noteworthy difficulty arising from the retirement of high-profile former minister Alannah MacTiernan and the resulting vacancy for her South West region upper house seat. Such vacancies are filled through a countback of ballot papers from the previous election and not with the favoured nominee of the party, as in the Senate. The top three of Labor’s six candidates on the South West ticket were elected in 2021, and in the normal course of events the countback would elect the next candidate along. However, The West Australian reports the candidate in question, John Mondy, is “understood to be reluctant” to tear himself away from a successful Bunbury signwriting business to spend two years as a parliamentarian.

That puts the focus on the fifth candidate, Narrogin lawyer Ben Dawkins, who faces dozens of charges of breaching a family violence restraining order, which he says relates solely to “emotive” language in emails he sent to his estranged wife. Dawkins is said to be interested in taking up the vacancy, but would do so as an independent given his legal troubles have caused him to be suspended from the ALP. The situation does not threaten Labor’s upper house majority, which inclusive of MacTiernan consisted of 22 seats in a chamber of 36.

Polls: federal and WA leaders, budget response, foreign policy (open thread)

Familiar results on the budget and federal politics generally, plus a finding that Mark McGowan continues to reign supreme in Western Australia.

Fair bit of polling doing the rounds this week, as is generally the case in the wake of a budget:

• The Age/Herald had further results from the Resolve Strategic poll on Tuesday, including ratings for the two leaders, which had 57% rating Anthony Albanese’s performance as very good or good compared with 28% for poor or very poor, with Peter Dutton respectively at 29% and 41%. The poll also found 40% supported allowing multi-employer bargaining, with 24% opposed; 26% supported mandatory multi-employer bargaining, with 32% opposed; and an even 29% favoured higher wages at the cost of higher prices and vice-versa.

• This fortnight’s Essential Research survey features the monthly prime ministerial ratings, which now involves directing respondents to give Anthony Albanese a rating from zero to ten. Forty-five per cent gave him between seven and ten, down one on last month; 28% gave him from four to six, down three; and 20% gave him zero to three, up three. Questions on the budget turned up one finding missed by the others: 45% said they had paid it little or no attention, around ten points up on the last three budgets, while 55% said a little or a lot, around ten points down. Fifty-two per cent expect economic conditions to worsen over the next twelve months, up twelve since June, while 24% expect them to improve, down eight. Respondents were asked to pick first and second most important contributors to energy price increases, which had excessive profits and efforts to fight climate change leading the field, international circumstances and a worn-out energy network somewhat lower, and too many restrictions on exploration well behind. The poll was conducted Saturday to Wednesday from a sample of 1058.

• Roy Morgan’s regular weekly video has included primary votes from its latest federal poll, conducted from October 24 (the day before the budget) to October 30, rather than just two-party preferred as per its usual form. This shows Labor on 38.5% (down half on the previous week), the Coalition on 37% (up one-and-a-half), the Greens on 12% (up one), independents on 6% (down two) and One Nation on 3% (down one-and-a-half). Labor led 55.5-44.5 on two-party preferred, out from 54.5-45.5.

• The quarterly-or-so True Issues series from JWS Research is a “special release” on the budget, as opposed to its usual focus on issue salience. It finds 14% of respondents saying the budget would be good or very good for them personally compared with 36% for average and 31% for poor or very poor; for the national economic impact, the respective numbers were 20%, 38% and 25%. However, respondents provided highly positive responses when asked about fifteen specific budget measures, all but one of which attracted a favourable response – the distinct exception being “axing” the low-and-middle income tax offset. The most popular spending measures involved health and the least popular (relatively speaking) involved parental leave and childcare subsidies.

• The University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre has results of a YouGov poll it commissioned encompassing 1000 respondents in each of Australia, the United States and Japan, conducted from September 5 to 9. It found 44% of Australians would support responding with force if China invaded Taiwan, compared with 33% of Americans; 36% of Australians felt the US alliance made Australia more secure, with 58% of Americans holding a reciprocal view, up from 44% in December; 52% of Australians felt China was “mostly harmful” in Asia, with 20% rating it “mostly helpful”; an interestingly even 28% and 31% felt the same way about the United States, in dramatic contrast to results of 7% and 52% among Japanese respondents; 36% approved of the federal government’s handling of the relationship with China, with 19% disapproving; 52% supported the nuclear submarines plan, with 19% opposed; and “one in two”. Thirty-six per cent of Australians felt it would be good for the country if Joe Biden won another term compared with 19% for bad, while 50% felt a return of Donald Trump would be bad compared with 26% for good.

• In a rare bit of interesting polling news from Western Australia, a Painted Dog Research poll for The West Australian finds Mark McGowan with an approval rating of 70%, up two from March, and a disapproval rating of 18%, down seven, suggesting a consistency of popularity beyond any Australian politician I could name. David Honey, leader of what remains of the state parliamentary Liberal Party, had an approval rating of just 9%, with 31% disapproving, 40% neutral and 19% oblivious. The poll also found stage three tax cuts supported by 53% and opposed by 32%. It was conducted from October 19 to 21 from a sample of 637.

North West Central by-election live

Preview and live commentary of today’s North West Central state by-election in Western Australia.

Click here for full North West Central by-election results updated live.

Live commentary
8pm. All the booths are in on the primary vote and now, in one great flood, on two-party preferred as well, and we also have 413 postals and 381 pre-polls (the latter on primary vote only as I type). Raw figures are as good as projections at this stage, and they show the Nationals winning by a margin of 8% to 9%. However, their primary vote has not improved, which you might say is despite the absence of a Labor candidate or because of the absence of Vince Catania. The Liberals can take a certain amount of heart from the fact that their primary vote is up from 7.9% to 25.8%, but again, that may just reflect the fact that a lot of conservative support was hitherto locked up with Catania. Similarly, the Greens are up from 4.1% to 14.3%, but with a 40.2% Labor vote last time up for grabs, that’s not necessarily a particularly outstanding result.

7.21pm. The veil has now been lifted on two-party numbers, for which we have results from four booths. They suggest a roughly 60-40 split in preferences between the Nationals and the Liberals, which is similar to what happened when they finished first and second in 2013. This means the Liberals have no chance of winning from second on the primary vote in a context where they have no chance of finishing first, hence the probability dial hitting 100% for the Nationals.

7.05pm. Now the Kalbarri booth is in, with an above-par result for the Nationals. My probability gauge keeps getting stuck for some reason — it’s still on 98.0% when it should be at pretty much 100%.

7.02pm. The Exmouth booth and, to a lesser extent, Carnarvon Woolshed have almost doubled the vote count, giving the Greens a boost at the expense of the Nationals. In two-party terms though the picture is as it was in that the Nationals are well ahead of the Liberals and I expect them to do better on preferences.

6.53pm. I think that problem will fix with the next update, so consider me just about calling it for the Nationals. I’d forgotten that the WAEC has a peculiarity of not reporting two-party numbers until it’s confident it’s picked the right candidates, which is why we’re not seeking any action yet on that score.

6.46pm. My probability reading is stuck on 72.5% for the Nationals when it should be 98.0%. Looking into it.

6.41pm. We’ve got a relatively big booth in Onslow Primary School — all of 151 votes. The big picture is that the Nationals are down a little on the primary vote while the Liberals are up around 20% on their single figure result; that the Nationals retain a handy primary vote lead in a context where they’re likely to do better than the Liberals on preferences; and that we still don’t have any two-party numbers.

6.40pm. There’s an issue in the WAEC’s data feed for the Coral Bay booth, which is missing the line that’s supposed to record the Liberal result.

6.35pm. A sixth booth in now — probably Meekatharra Shire Hall, because that’s the best one for the Nationals and the dial just moved in their favour.

6.32pm. Problem fixed. Five booths in now, one of them small and four of them tiny, and while my speculative preference estimates point to a Nationals winning margin of 5% to 6%, there are far too few votes for me to call it.

6.23pm. Now we’ve got two booths in, the follow-up being 102 votes from Carnarvon Community College. The Nationals are well down on last time, but still with just over 50% of the primary vote. There is a problem with my two-party projection though, which I’ll look into.

6.22pm. In any case, I can tentatively say that my results facility is working, and that it’s coming through with the goods quicker than the WAEC site.

6.20pm. We’ve got 11 votes in from Wiluna Remote Community School. Presumably the fact that none of them are for the Liberals explains why my projection is sticking with 50-50.

6pm. Polls have closed. Now to see if my live results page is going to work. Results should come in reasonably shortly given there are some very small booths involved, although twelve candidates on the ballot paper should slow things up a bit. The WAEC will provide updates at leisurely five minute intervals.

Preview
Today is the day of Western Australia’s state by-election for North West Central, resulting from the retirement of Nationals MP Vince Catania, which likely looms as a contest between the Nationals and Liberals in the absence of a Labor candidate, albeit that there are twelve candidates in all. My own perspective on the matter is laid out in my by-election guide. Note that a mere 7741 formal votes were cast in 2021: not only does the seat have markedly below average enrolment due to the “large district allowance” that applies to seats of more than 100,000 square kilometres, it also records unusually low turnout, which is sure to be lower still at a by-election.

My live results page can be found here, awaiting numbers that will start to come through from 6pm. Given that Antony Green has “tickets to the Swans versus Collingwood AFL match … so won’t be able to publish any results until I get home from the match”, I think I can get away with saying that my results facility and accompanying commentary will be the best available.

My results display will feature two-party swing figures working off a rather artificial set of Nationals-versus-Liberal numbers from last year based on the assumption that Labor and minor party preferences would, if distributed, have split between the two in the same proportion as in 2013, when Labor obligingly finished third. On this basis, the Liberals need a 20.5% swing to poach the swing from the Nationals, having polled but 7.9% at the March 2021 election compared with 39.7% for the Nationals (and 40.2% for Labor).

My guess would be that that’s not going to happen: homeless Labor voters are probably more likely to swing behind the Nationals candidate Merome Beard, proprietor of the Port Hotel, which is by some distance the best pub in Carnarvon (the one that was infamouly run by Wilson Tuckey back in the day). Should Liberal candidate Will Baston pull off an upset, the Nationals and Liberals will be deadlocked at three seats apiece in the Legislative Assembly, raising the question of whether Nationals leader Mia Davies will retain the status of Opposition Leader.

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