I was hoping Newspoll might be back in the game three weeks after election day, but it seems normal service is yet to resume. Presumably Essential Research will have numbers of some sort tomorrow, but it remains to be seen if they will encompass voting intention. I hope to have more to offer shortly on whether other pollsters are still in the game in the immediate term, or whether they have pulled stumps for the time being. That just leaves me with the following miscellany to relate by way of a new open thread post:
• Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times reported yesterday on a plan within the Western Australian Liberals to have former test cricketer and national team coach Justin Langer lead the party into the next state election in 2025. The suggestion is that the current leader, David Honey, might be persuaded to relinquish his seat of Cottesloe, one of only two lower house seats the party retained at the 2021 election. It is an any case “widely accepted that Dr Honey won’t lead the WA Liberals to the next election”, with Vasse MP Libby Mettams “his likely replacement” – indeed his only possible replacement out of the existing ranks of the Liberals’ lower house contingent.
• Katina Curtis and Shane Wright of the Sydney Morning Herald have taken the trouble to compile the results of the 75,368 telephone votes cast by those in COVID-19 isolation, finding that Labor, Greens or independents candidates out-performed on them on two-candidate preferred relative to the overall results in all but eight lower house seats. Kevin Bonham is quoted in the article noting that infections are more prevalent of left-leaning demographics, namely the young and those employed in exposed occupations, though I also tend to think there may be a greater tendency for those on the right of politics to keep their illnesses to themselves.
• One bit of poll news at least: the latest quarterly Tasmanian state poll from EMRS has been published, the first since Jeremy Rockliff succeeded Peter Gutwein as Premier. It finds the Liberals down two points since March to 39%, Labor down one to 30%, the Greens up one to 13% and others up two to 18%. Rockliff leads Labor’s Rebecca White 47-34 as preferred premier, compared with Gutwein’s lead of 52-33 in March. The poll was conducted May 27 to June 2 through telephone interviews from a sample of 1000.
• Lydia Lynch of The Australian reports that Julie-Ann Campbell, Queensland Labor’s outgoing state secretary and now associate partner with consultancy firm EY, is “expected to run for federal politics” – specifically for the seat of Moreton, which Graham Perrett has held for Labor since 2007.
There’s a fair bit going on at the site at the moment, so here’s a quick run-through the subjects of recent posts with on-topic discussion threads, as opposed to the open thread on this post:
• The future direction of the Liberal Party, with debate raging as to whether it should focus on recovering blue-ribbon seats from the teal independents or cutting them loose and pursuing a new course through suburban and regional seats traditionally held by Labor;
• The three state by-elections looming in the Queensland seat of Callide, the South Australian seat of Bragg and the Western Australian seat of North West Central;
• The ongoing count from the federal election, which remains of interest in relation to several Senate contests, with the pressing of the button looking reasonably imminent in South Australia and the two territories.
727 comments on “Sticky wicket (open thread)”
These things aren’t being shut down to satisfy an ideology; They’re too expensive to run. It is cheaper to build 2x new renewables than it is to simply maintain an old burner/boiler turbine, let alone fuel it. This same dynamic exists everywhere. Feed your grid from locally sourced renewables and you insulate your economy from energy geopolitics.
No one is disagreeing.
Are there really comparisons?
One is the forced outing of a famous performer. There is truth to the story. There is no justification, except click bait and profit. I don’t know what degree of public support the publisher has on the issue, but not much I’d guess, and certainly no public support of which I am aware. It’s not the first instance of the SMH outing people: they have published the names of 78ers (first Mardi Gras marchers) as then known.
The other is a prolonged world wide political and social campaign of mistruths and misconstructions that has at the very least seen the world split and countless thousands if not millions killed. The Murdoch war on the earth machine. There is no justification except power and profit. There is huge public opposition by the righteous, and inglorious slathering vile support by those who sup with the devil.
And that one apologises, however tastelessly, when exposed, and one doesn’t amounts to what? The bleeding obvious I reckon.
Rex at 5.48 re Desalination plant…
I’ve never been a fan of these. They look like a very expensive way of getting ‘fresh’ water.
On the other hand, what about water recycling? I’ve heard many cities do this. We live on the arid continent,why are we comprehensively recycling water?
Are there technical arguments against recycling (I’m talking about the whole deal – toilet to tap)? Doesn’t seem to be a problem on the International Space Station.
So we not do comprehensive water recycling because no one thinks they can sell it politically?
So RBA governor saying 7% inflation by Xmas. Terrible times ahead.
I’ve never been a fan of these. They look like a very expensive way of getting ‘fresh’ water.”
If you are using entirely renewable power and managing the salt output, it seems entirely harmless, and much less effort than recycling really dirty water.
Obviously we should have had a salt water sewerage system entirely separate to the drinkable water.
Aaron newton @ #693 Tuesday, June 14th, 2022 – 9:00 pm
Chief of Staff is Tim Gartrell.
I asked a reliable source about the Speaker last week and was given a heavy hint. We’ll see.
Proper recycling involves treating water to potable standard.
Just for starters, getting potable water into your house is a (relatively) expensive process (which is why water used for, say, irrigation, is vastly cheaper).
To make real recycling – as opposed to reuse – of water, we’re looking at similar technologies to desal – pushing water through filters to ensure that the nasties have been eliminated. If it’s sewer water, there’s additional problems with bacteria.
It’s possible where cities have been designed with recycling in mind, but most cities (towns even) have grown like Topsy, with no real synchronisation and often no records being kept as to where drains go.
It’s one of the problems with tracking down chemical spills – you can easily trace it back to the pipe that’s spewing it into the river, but finding where that pipe starts is often almost impossible.
In a typical city street, the water from the houses might end up going into dozens of completely different drains, heading in totally different directions, discharging who knows where.
This makes it difficult to collect the water you want to recycle. You’re basically retrofitting whole suburbs.
zoomster at 9.38
…So desal involes a similar process to recycling and fits better with current water-supply infrastructure? Ta.
What about measures for inland areas (like Broken Hill – vast distances from oceans)?
Snappy: “I was nearly 6 when Apollo 11 landed on the Moon. My parents gave me a book titled ‘You Will Go to the Moon.’ Waiting…waiting…”
Soon brother. The falcon delivers about 13T to orbit, less if there are squishy crew involved. Most accounts have that at $60M per launch. That’s compared to $100M or more if you could even find a competitor that had the engines or facilities to launch you. Which you can’t find.
The starship configuration is aiming for 100T or more to orbit for under $10M. $100/kg. You could launch the mass of the ISS for $50M. We should even see one of these things launch over the next month or two. If we get a landing after an orbital flight in the next year, I’ll be singing about it.
I strongly agree with you on the false choice between strong defence and diplomacy. Obviously you do both! Its like saying to a car buyer: Seat belts or air bags: you can only pick one.
Diplomacy without a strong defence negotiates from a position of weakness.
A strong defence without diplomacy is antagonistic and may create enemies.
“It would be most disappointing if we were to discover, one day, that AUKUS was simply an attempt to wedge Labor that Morrison somehow got Biden and Johnson to agree to.”
I think we are all in agreement Labor needs to get to the bottom of this. I can think of another possible reason I would not put past Morrison. The Attack Class program was about to be subject to another reporting as a “project of concern” that could have been very embarrassing (it flunked the previous one). Scrapping Sea 1000 and moving to AUKUS meant this never had to happen, because the Attack Class project was over.
Even better, detailed reporting of the AUKUS SSN Task Force findings were delayed another 18 months to the end of the Task Force work. No progress reporting! Meanwhile the Task Force is burning through another $150 million just on its own investigations in that 18 months according to ASPI.
And yes another White Paper, from a credible strategist independent of Defence, is a must. The previous government virtually threw away its last Defence White Paper. It added capabilities that were never in the White Paper (e.g. SSNs) while abandoning key things that were in it (12 subs by 2030, not 2050!)
Snappy: “What about measures for inland areas (like Broken Hill – vast distances from oceans)?”
1: Don’t take their water for city consumption.
2: Build piped irrigation instead of open channel. 90% of our agricultural water is lost to evaporation in oz. Ha. Maybe one day our gas piping infrastructure can be used to transport water!
“One is the forced outing of a famous performer. ”
I have not commented on the forced “outing” of Rebel Wilson by the SMH but I agree it is appalling, and I even wonder if it is in breach of both the Federal Privacy Act and the Anti Discrimination Act? (But I’m no lawyer. Shellbell?)
The things that bother me are multiple:
– Wilson being a public figure is not a justification. It is not as though she holds some public office where she could suffer from some apprehended bias. She is an entertainer. I see no legitimate public interest as a defence of the outing.
– Wilson might suffer a loss in popularity and income as an entertainer from any previous fans that were homophobic.
– It is not only Wilson. Her partner is also “outed” indirectly as “collateral damage”. I see absolutely no excuse for this.
So as far as journalistic ethics goes, it is a shocker IMO.
“So we not do comprehensive water recycling because no one thinks they can sell it politically?”
In Perth, here in daH Cave, they didn’t even try sell it. WaterCorp just conducted a trial. ohhh loo, it works, lets keep doing it.
Sewage, treated to dump-able std, run through a reverse osmosis plant much the same as a de-sal unit, and the perfectly potable output of such injected into large near surface aquifers from which Perth has been drawing water for decades to help recharge them in a drying climate.
Biological filtering and helps keep the water table up at a level where trees and wetlands are less impacted by a drying climate.
How we did it when bone clubs and stone tools are apparently our forte……who knows?? 🙂
And, it was NEVER a political issue over here. Lack of rain and low dam levels is a kind of in your face incentive i suppose.
I haven’t following the Rebel Wilson issue – tidbits about celebrities’ relationships and personal lives generally leave me agog with indifference. However, if the Sydney Morning Herald (SMH) has “outed” her without her permission, that is deplorable.
The SMH purports to do journalism, to be a serious journal of record. They should leave celebrity gossip to the Murdochracy.
Anyone in the Murrumbidgee/Murray system anywhere downstream of Canberra is drinking recycled water (albeit massively diluted).
“I also agree that nuclear submarines are only really necessary for operations significantly distant from Australia. If the Coral Sea or the Timor Sea represent the rough boundaries of our ‘defensive submarine patrol’ needs, we would appear not to need nuclear submarines.”
The Coral, Arafura and Timor Seas really represent the start of our A2/AD zone. The patrolling area extends to (in clockwise direction) the Straights of Malacca, the southern reaches of the South China Sea, the Java Sea, the Flores Sea, Sulu, Celebes and Bunda Seas, the Bismarck Sea, the southern half of the Philippines Sea, and on the other side of the Solomon Sea an arc that takes in Palau, Nauru and Fiji.
However, the basic idea of A2/AD operations and our submarine patrols would be to have at least two to four boats at sea – and cruising in the inner reaches of that zone and then being able to be coordinated by the IRS components of the network to intercept hostile forces at strategic pinch points at the outer parameter for coordinated strikes in conjunction with stand off platforms like our destroyers – who would launch tomahawks from up to 1000 nm away – or strike fighters, who would be able to launch LRASMs from 350 nm away, or stealth fighters – who can penetrate the air defences and launch JSMs from up to 110 nm away, while the silent service gets within a 50 nm to launch strike missiles (Harpoons – but with the acquisition of future strike missiles at greater distance again) and then move in close to mop up with heavy torpedos (or even get in close and simply use heavy torpedos as part of the first strike package).
BT: “Anyone in the Murrumbidgee/Murray system anywhere downstream of Canberra is drinking recycled water (albeit massively diluted).”
Ultimately, everyone consumes recycled water.
So thinking on it for a night, I think the only way Albo and the ALP can salvage the energy crisis is to not do anything to try and fix it fast but pivot hard to announcing 3 things in the budget.
1. Declare: It’s a fucking race to replace all the power stations in the country with renewables. Jobs jobs jobs etc.
2. Declaring an energy crisis and give the energy minister control of pricing and production during a crisis (which will be constant and ongoing forever). Make the energy minister powerful like the immigration minister.
3. Keep up talk about gas supply and profits going offshore and just fucking slam a super profits tax on the bastards at the first moment. Time to press the advantage of a progressive senate.
Remember how the first week was all smiles and talk about reconciliation and social policy. All of that stuff will fall of the map if there are brown outs and crippling winter electricity bills. Labor will start to loose support in < 6 weeks if it's not able to put the blame for this squarely on the the last 9 years of liberal governments failures to get an effective energy police in place.
It should not be beneath the government to point out the failures of the past government! don't fall in the leftest trap of taking the higher road!
Keep and eye on the ABC. They don't mention the past when they talk about this crisis. The honeymoon is already over. Everything if fucked and it's a threat to progress.
Albo has to stop all of his OS trips untill the warmth of sping. All politics is local and I have elderly friends and family that are seeing on the news that the power's going out. They left the soviet union to avoid this sort of shit.
It's the vibe, it's getting cold and scary out there and the government isn't able to do much.
A sensible approach to the Middle East.
south @ #705 Tuesday, June 14th, 2022 – 9:20 pm
And the election is still to be finalised. 😆
I have to agree that the ABC has already moved on.
Kevin Rudd interviewed in the USA on MSNBC about gun control.
Barney in Tanjung Bunga,
There are people in parliament who are responsible for this power mess. Angus Taylor should face a grilling in QT about it. There must be blood!
The lament of the “Liberal” moderate. Worth a look, just 3 minutes. To quote commenter Anthony David “Brilliant, Insightful, on-point and empathetically merciless.”
Sorry – one more video and that’s it – 4 minutes. The Government coach resigns after losing the Grand Final.
Rudd clearly does not understand the pro-gun nature of the current composition of the US Supreme Court. It has become more pro-gun since Heller. There is a case about the Second Amendment (relating to the issuing of concealed carry permits in New York) due to be handed down very soon that will show exactly where the Supreme Court stands.
south @ #710 Tuesday, June 14th, 2022 – 9:45 pm
He’s not in Government anymore.
He doesn’t get asked questions in Question Time.