Category: US Politics

12.52pm ET. Clinton grimly hanging on in New Hampshire on the NYT projection, with Trump having a slight edge on the vote. It also has also all but called it for him in Pennsylvania.

12.20pm ET. A tightening has been evident in Pennsylvania and Michigan, but the big shock of Wisconsin looks all but sure to win it for Trump. However, Clinton looks no less sure of winning the popular vote, by a margin currently projected at a bit over 1%.

11.54pm ET. The NYT at least has Clinton back ahead in Minnesota now.

11.46pm ET. A point of interest for Australians: Maine is holding a ballot initiative for “ranked choice voting”, what we would call preferential voting. Yes leads narrowly on 52.8%.

11.40pm ET. Also a big night for people who were pushing Brexit parallels. Decaying industrial areas have performed the same role as their English counterparts in Sunderland.

11.33pm ET. NYT now has Minnesota slipping over the line to Trump, holding steady in Pennsylvania and Michigan, home and hosed in Wisconsin.

11.27pm ET. If Clinton does win Michigan and Pennsylvania, it starts to come down to Maine CD-2 and Nebraska CD-2, and FiveThirtyEight has Trump the favourite in both.

11.26pm ET. Dan Rosenheck of The Economist: “I think HRC still has a prayer in MI and PA, though the Upshot is very bearish. But WI, which polls had as safer, looks like her Waterloo.”

11.12pm ET. NYT effectively calling the election for Trump; the always more cautious FiveThirtyEight has him at 61%. Former says Trump is a 72% chance in Michigan and 63% in Pennsylvania, but I gather the ladder is essentially treating any “too close to call” state as 50-50, where NYT is mostly projecting Trump as favourite.

11.01pm ET. So anyway, the big shock is that the industrial rust belt states have responded heavily to Donald Trump. It makes perfect sense when you say it like that, but the polls missed it. Whatever the final result, losers of the night include polls and forecasters, with a qualified exception for Nate Silver, whose cautious projection has been vindicated (and left Wired and Huffington Post looking silly).

10.58pm ET. Some rare PB brickbats for the ABC. Out driving just now, I have five ABC stations on offer, and not a hint of election news from any of them. Had to listen to commercial talk radio. And ABC News 24 has underused Antony Green and been taking upwards of half an hour to notice what’s going on.

10.26pm ET. You can probably read the NYT projection as well as I can, but it says there’s nothing at all in it in Pennsylvania, and Trump can get there anyway with Michigan and Wisconsin, both of which are looking good for him. FiveThirtyEight now has Trump at a 55% probability. The Senate will stay Republican: they are all but sure to hold Missouri, home and hosed in New Hampshire, Indiana and North Carolina.

10.16pm ET. Trump keeps moving to victory on the NYT projection amid an unexpectedly strong performance in the rust belt, now being credited with narrow leads in Wisconsin as well as Michigan. FiveThirtyEight still has Clinton at 60%, but I gather that’s based on an arbitrary 50-50 probability split in Michigan.

9.56pm ET. The latest update from Michigan has nudged the count from 21% to 23%, and increased Trump’s projected lead at NYT from 1.1% to 1.2%.

9.48pm ET. Looks like everything hinges on Michigan. New York Times projects a 55% Republican win probability.

9.41pm ET. The New York Times projection is increasingly tipping to Trump, and now has him leading in Michigan, with Clinton grimly hanging on in Pennsylvania. Its Electoral College projection is Trump 275, Clinton 263.

9.37pm ET. Richard Burr (R) home in North Carolina; Kelly Ayotte (R) with her nose in front in New Hampshire; too early to tell in Missouri, but overall the Senate is looking difficult for the Democrats.

9.26pm ET. Time to close the door on Florida, I gather.

9.21pm ET. Michigan though is close for comfort. New York Times has Clinton at only a 58% probability, owing to the fragility of her leads in Michigan and Pennsylvania.

9.20pm ET. However, Colorado is looking good with 25% counted, suggesting it will join Virginia as a Trump roadblock.

9.18pm ET. Numbers coming in for Michigan and Pennsylvania, both showing with Clinton with moderate leads.

9.16pm ET. About 70,000 votes have been added in Broward, and they’ve perhaps been less favourable for Clinton than required, going 55.0% to 40.0% her way.

9.14pm ET. Virginia still looks like Clinton’s firewall: the New York Times projects her for a 91% probability and a margin of 3.2%.

9.10pm ET. The New York Times has Clinton a 69% chance, which tends to suggest this is another presidential election where Nate Silver has ended up looking pretty good.

9.10pm ET. Still slow progress in Broward.

9.08pm ET. The New York Times now has Trump with his nose in front in all the close states, and betting and financial markets are rushing to price in a higher risk of a Trump win.

9.02pm ET. Trickles of votes coming in now for Broward county, which will need to be plentiful to get Clinton over the line in Florida.

9.01pm ET. Clinton continues to firm in Virginia, which closes a lot of pathway for Trump.

8.59pm ET. In North Carolina, Richard Burr has his nose in front to retain the Senate seat for the Republicans, but Clinton retains a slight edge in the presidential vote.

8.48pm ET. Clinton looking good in New Hampshire.

8.43pm ET. New York Times has Clinton maintaining tiny leads in North Carolina and Iowa, but Trump slipping ahead in Ohio and holding firm in Florida. That Virginia is not absolutely nailed down, and a number of important states further west are yet to report, means there is still a theoretical path for Trump.

8.42pm ET. A lot seems to hinge on Broward county in Florida, which has only reported its early voting results to this point.

8.39pm ET. FiveThirtyEight gives Republicans 69% chance of retaining the Senate.

8.38pm ET. Evan Bayh fails to win Indiana Senate for the Democrats.

8.36pm ET. Florida back to Trump +0.6% at New York Times, nothing in it in North Carolina, Clinton still with her nose in front in Ohio.

8.35pm ET. Now I’m hearing less encouraging talk on North Carolina, for both presidency and Senate.

8.34pm ET. NBC News projects Republican House majority.

8.32pm ET. New York Times projection on Florida drifting slightly to Clinton: Trump’s lead down from 0.6% to 0.3%.

8.25pm ET. Wise heads on Twitter sound doubtful that Trump is doing as well as New York Times projections suggest: “Someone tell me how Trump overcomes what’s still out in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach”.

8.21pm ET. And Ohio better than anticipated for Clinton as well.

8.20pm ET. But Clinton appears to be performing well in North Carolina.

8.19pm ET. The New York Times model is projecting a 0.5% lead for Trump, so some mixed signals there.

8.17pm ET. New York Times projects early lead for Clinton in Ohio, which is good news (I won’t pretend to be impartial here).

8.13pm ET. More indications of Clinton outperforming Obama in North Carolina, which Romney won 50.6% to 48.4%.

8.10pm ET. Really good results and projections display from New York Times.

8.09pm ET. Republican Marco Rubio’s anticipated re-election to Florida Senate confirmed.

8.08pm ET. No one’s calling any battleground states, but encouraging indications for Clinton in Florida and North Carolina, and betting markets moving her way.

8.07pm ET. NBC News confirms anticipated Democratic Senate gain in Illinois.

8.03pm ET. Could be wishful thinking, but Daily Kos sounds encouraged about North Carolina Senate race, where persons of good conscience will be hoping Deborah Ross ousts Republican incumbent Richard Burr.

7.56pm ET. Hugely important Miami Dade county in Florida swinging 3% to Clinton compared with Obama’s winning performance in 2016.

7.53pm ET. Clinton just shot to the lead in the raw count in Florida. Probably just goes to show you the limitation of looking at raw results, particularly in such an electorally diverse state.

7.49pm ET. Republican Senator Rob Portman’s re-election in Ohio confirmed. Always looked a disappointing race for the Democrats.

7.45pm ET. Australia’s ABC (i.e. Antony Green) is calling Democrats 182, Republicans 94, but none of the calls are in battleground states.

7.41pm ET. Enjoy footage of Nevada judge dressing down douchebag Trump lawyer over “voter fraud” lawsuit here.

7.36pm ET. Trump camp talking head on ABC News 24 talking tosh about “oversampling” by lying pollsters.

7.35pm ET. Jonathan Swan of The Hill: “In the presidential, Clinton looking strong in Pa., Colo., N.H., Mich., Wis., per exits. Florida she’s a squeak ahead. Ohio tied.” Colorado and New Hampshire would close any path to a Trump victory.

7.31pm ET. More good signs for Clinton in Florida, from Duval county: “Clinton over Trump 49-47 w/ 300K votes in. If that doesn’t change, it’s over. GOP can’t win statewide w/o Duval.”

7.28pm ET. Latino Decisions reports: “Latino vote in Florida now posted: Clinton 67 – Trump 31 (+36) 2012 was Obama 58 – Romney 40 (+18)”. Also talk of particularly strong turnout in Latin areas of Miami.

7.20pm ET. Stephen Bush at the New Statesman notes there is “a swing towards Clinton in Kentucky, though Indiana looks bad for both rural Ohio and Evan Bayh’s chance of taking the Senate seat back for the Democrats”.

7pm ET. Polling stations close in the first of the key states around about now, so here begins live coverage of today’s momentous US elections. See here for my final poll aggregation and Senate review.

As election day dawns in the United States, the latest reading of the election tracker is final and definitive, and it has both candidates slightly lower on the national vote compared with yesterday’s reading: Hillary Clinton from 48.6% to 47.7%, and Donald Trump from 44.2% to 43.9%. So far as the electoral college projection is concerned, the safest thing to say is that at least one state-level upset will be required to breach a Clinton firewall of 272 votes versus 266 for Trump.

Beyond that, three states are recorded as being absolutely lineball: North Carolina (15 electoral college votes), where Clinton is credited with a lead that amounts to zero when rounded to the first decimal place; and Florida (29 votes) and Nevada (six votes), where leads of 0.1% are attributed to Trump. However, the expectation is that Clinton will carry Nevada, and that Florida is probably more likely for her than North Carolina. If all lands Trump’s way, he would then most likely be looking to New Hampshire (four votes) or Colorado (nine votes) to tip him over the edge, but the model credits Clinton with respective leads there of 2.4% and 2.9%.

The table below shows the projections state by state, and an interactive map of the results can be viewed here. Stay tuned for the bottom of the post, where you will find a review of the situation in the Senate.

State	Margin	Swing	EV
Alabama	Safe		9
Alaska	Trump 10.5	3.5	3
Arizona	Trump 2.9	6.2	11
Arkansas	Trump 21.7	2.0	6
California	Clinton 21.8	1.3	55
Colorado	Clinton 2.9	2.5	9
Connecticut	Safe		7
D.C.	Safe		3
Delaware	Clinton 18.4	0.2	3
Florida	Trump 0.1	1.0	29
Georgia	Trump 5.2	2.6	16
Hawaii	Safe		4
Idaho	Trump 21.3	10.6	4
Illinois	Clinton 13.6	3.3	20
Indiana	Trump 10.0	0.2	11
Iowa	Trump 2.8	8.6	6
Kansas	Trump 20.0	1.7	6
Kentucky	Safe		8
Louisiana	Trump 15.0	2.2	8
Maine	Clinton 6.6	8.7	4
Maryland	Clinton 33.5	7.4	10
Massachusetts	Clinton 26.9	3.8	11
Michigan	Clinton 5.1	4.4	16
Minnesota	Clinton 7.5	0.2	10
Mississippi	Safe		6
Missouri	Trump 9.1	0.3	10
Montana	Trump 15.4	1.8	3
Nebraska	Trump 18.3	3.5	5
Nevada	Trump 0.1	6.8	6
New Hampshire	Clinton 2.4	3.2	4
New Jersey	Clinton 11.5	6.3	14
New Mexico	Clinton 5.1	5.1	5
New York	Clinton 19.0	9.2	29
North Carolina	Clinton 0.0	2.0	15
North Dakota	Safe		3
Ohio	Trump 3.0	6.0	18
Oklahoma	Safe		7
Oregon	Clinton 6.6	5.5	7
Pennsylvania	Clinton 4.0	1.4	20
Rhode Island	Clinton 22.0	5.5	4
South Carolina	Trump 7.9	2.6	9
South Dakota	Trump 13.9	4.1	3
Tennessee	Trump 14.1	6.3	11
Texas	Trump 9.1	6.7	38
Utah	Trump 9.3	38.7	6
Vermont	Clinton 25.8	9.8	3
Virginia	Clinton 5.3	1.4	13
Washington	Clinton 12.8	2.1	12
West Virginia	Safe		5
Wisconsin	Clinton 5.1	1.8	10
Wyoming	Safe		3

Should the conventional wisdom about the White House race be borne out, the next big question for Hillary Clinton will be what kind of Congress she is looking at. The House of Representatives is one aspect of the election that truly is as rigged as Donald Trump says, in this case because gerrymandering by Republican state administrations helps ensure a Republican majority regardless of what a national majority of voters works (an inefficient distribution of support for the Democrats also plays a part). However, there’s everything to play for in the Senate, where the Republicans’ current hold on 54 of the 100 seats reflects the party’s strong showings at the 2010 and 2014 mid-terms, which was punctuated by a weaker performance on the day of Obama’s re-election in 2014. The seats up for election in this cycle are those elected in 2010, when the Republicans won 24 seats to the Democrats’ 10.

If the Democrats can manage 14 out of 34 tomorrow, they will be able to piece together half the votes on the floor with support from two Democrat-aligned independents, and if they get the White House as well, tied votes will be resolved by the Democratic vice-president. It is everywhere taken for granted that Illinois will not repeat its anomalous Republican victory in 2010, so the question is whether the Democrats can make a net three gains in the seats listed below, on which seven are Republican-held and two are Democratic. Poll trackers in each case show the Democratic candidate as blue and the Republican as read. These are based on the raw results of the polling compiled at RealClearPolitics, with no weighting or bias adjustment.

Colorado

Democrat 0.9%

Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet should be able to hold off Republican challenger Darryl Glenn, but the final published poll suggested there were only three points in it.

Florida

Republican 29.9%

The defending Republican incumbent here is presidential hopeful Mario Rubio, who faces Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy, the House representative for a district around Palm Beach. Rubio has generally looked pretty comfortable in polling, but a few late campaign polls have only credited him with a one-point lead or a tie.

Indiana

Republican 18.3%

The Democrats have an opportunity in this light red state due to the retirement of three-term Republican Dan Coats, and the return to the fray of Evan Bayh, who held the seat from 1998 until 2010, when he retired ahead of a likely looming defeat. The Republican candidate is Todd Young, who represents one of the state’s nine congressional districts. Bayh has generally looked to have the advantage in polling, but a single poll attributed to “YTHR/Howey Politics” upset the applecart at the end of the campaign with a five-point lead for Young, even while Gravis showed Bayh three points ahead.

Missouri

Republican 13.7%

Republican incumbent Roy Blunt would normally feel secure in this red state, but he faces a strong challenge from Missouri’s secretary of state, Jason Kander, who put his record as an Afghanistan veteran to good use in the campaign’s <a href="
“>most memorable television spot. Polling has been a bit light on, but such as there has been has consistently had it neck-and-neck.

Nevada

Democrat 5.6%

The Democrats are on the defensive in Nevada due to the retirement of party stalwart Harry Reid. The seat will be contested for the Democrats by Catherine Cortez Masto, and for the Republicans by Joe Heck, a Congressman who has been less muted in his objections to Donald Trump’s outrages than some of his party colleagues. There has been little to separate the two in the polls, but reports of Democratic confidence about Clinton’s prospects in Nevada on the strength of early voting turnout are said to carry over to the Senate contest.

New Hampshire

Republican 23.5%

Kelly Ayotte came to this seat in 2010 as the latest Republican to occupy a seat that had been in the party fold since 1980. However, she now faces a strong challenge from the state’s Democratic Governor, Maggie Hassan, who may have been aided by Ayotte’s struggles to formulate a position on her party’s presidential nominee. Late polling has had something for everybody, with one putting Ayotte six points ahead, one putting Hassan four points ahead, and another five polls landing at various points in between.

North Carolina

Republican 12.1%

Former state representative Deborah Ross has been polling well enough, particularly at the end of the campaign, to cause concern for senior Republican incumbent Richard Burr.

Pennsylvania

Republican 2.0%

Pat Toomey was a narrow victor here for the Republicans in 2010, and now faces a strong challenge from environmental policy official Katie McGinty. Polling at the end of the campaign has tended to give McGinty the edge, although one late poll has Toomey ahead by a point.

Wisconsin

Republican 4.9%

One of the Wisconsin is one of the Democrats’ strongest prospects, with former Democratic Senator Russ Feingold seeking to recover the seat he lost in 2010 to Republican incumbent Ron Johnson. He has led in all but one of the nine polls in October and November, but the most recent have had his margin at one and two points.

There now appears to be something of a breakout in Hillary Clinton’s favour on the presidential tracker, which is showing up clearly in the trend chart below. This has caused her razor thin lead on recent readings of the electoral college projection to blow out to 317 to 221, with Florida and North Carolina now in her column. Still absent from it, by the barest of margins, is Nevada, where the Democrats have been greatly buoyed by the pattern of early voting turnout, with one noted local observer all but calling the state for Clinton. This has led to suggestions that pollsters have been coming in low for Clinton across the board by underestimating turnout among Hispanics. The latest interactive map of the results below can be viewed here.

State	Margin	Swing	EV
Alabama	Safe		9
Alaska	Trump 10.5	3.5	3
Arizona	Trump 2.7	6.4	11
Arkansas	Trump 21.6	2.1	6
California	Clinton 21.9	1.2	55
Colorado	Clinton 2.8	2.6	9
Connecticut	Safe		7
D.C.	Safe		3
Delaware	Clinton 18.3	0.3	3
Florida	Clinton 0.3	0.6	29
Georgia	Trump 5.0	2.8	16
Hawaii	Safe		4
Idaho	Trump 20.9	11.0	4
Illinois	Clinton 13.8	3.1	20
Indiana	Trump 10.0	0.2	11
Iowa	Trump 3.1	8.9	6
Kansas	Trump 20.0	1.7	6
Kentucky	Safe		8
Louisiana	Trump 14.8	2.4	8
Maine	Clinton 6.9	8.4	4
Maryland	Clinton 33.4	7.3	10
Massachusetts	Clinton 27.0	3.9	11
Michigan	Clinton 6.0	3.5	16
Minnesota	Clinton 7.7	0.0	10
Mississippi	Safe		6
Missouri	Trump 10.9	1.5	10
Montana	Trump 15.1	1.5	3
Nebraska	Trump 18.9	2.9	5
Nevada	Trump 0.1	6.8	6
New Hampshire	Clinton 2.0	3.6	4
New Jersey	Clinton 11.3	6.5	14
New Mexico	Clinton 5.0	5.2	5
New York	Clinton 18.7	9.5	29
North Carolina	Clinton 0.1	2.1	15
North Dakota	Safe		3
Ohio	Trump 2.6	5.6	18
Oklahoma	Safe		7
Oregon	Clinton 6.8	5.3	7
Pennsylvania	Clinton 4.4	1.0	20
Rhode Island	Clinton 21.9	5.6	4
South Carolina	Trump 8.3	2.2	9
South Dakota	Trump 13.7	4.3	3
Tennessee	Trump 14.2	6.2	11
Texas	Trump 8.9	6.9	38
Utah	Trump 9.1	38.9	6
Vermont	Clinton 26.2	9.4	3
Virginia	Clinton 5.8	1.9	13
Washington	Clinton 12.6	2.3	12
West Virginia	Safe		5
Wisconsin	Clinton 4.7	2.2	10
Wyoming	Safe		3

The last two days of national polling have taken some of the edge off the recent turn against Hillary Clinton, who is now projected with a lead of 48.0% to 45.0%, compared with 47.1% to 45.3% in the previous post two days ago. This causes North Carolina to move back into the Clinton column, and leaves Donald Trump hanging by a thread to Florida and Nevada. See here for the latest map display of the results detailed below.

State	Margin	Swing	EV
Alabama	Safe		9
Alaska	Trump 10.6	3.4	3
Arizona	Trump 2.7	6.4	11
Arkansas	Trump 21.9	1.8	6
California	Clinton 21.6	1.5	55
Colorado	Clinton 2.5	2.9	9
Connecticut	Safe		7
D.C.	Safe		3
Delaware	Clinton 18.1	0.5	3
Florida	Trump 0.2	1.1	29
Georgia	Trump 6.1	1.7	16
Hawaii	Safe		4
Idaho	Trump 21.4	10.5	4
Illinois	Clinton 13.3	3.6	20
Indiana	Trump 10.2	0.0	11
Iowa	Trump 2.5	8.3	6
Kansas	Trump 18.4	3.3	6
Kentucky	Safe		8
Louisiana	Trump 15.3	1.9	8
Maine	Clinton 6.3	9.0	4
Maryland	Clinton 33.4	7.3	10
Massachusetts	Clinton 25.5	2.4	11
Michigan	Clinton 4.5	5.0	16
Minnesota	Clinton 7.2	0.5	10
Mississippi	Safe		6
Missouri	Trump 11.4	2.0	10
Montana	Trump 15.5	1.9	3
Nebraska	Trump 19.1	2.7	5
Nevada	Trump 0.5	7.2	6
New Hampshire	Clinton 2.4	3.2	4
New Jersey	Clinton 11.3	6.5	14
New Mexico	Clinton 6.5	3.7	5
New York	Clinton 20.9	7.3	29
North Carolina	Clinton 0.0	2.0	15
North Dakota	Safe		3
Ohio	Trump 3.4	6.4	18
Oklahoma	Safe		7
Oregon	Clinton 6.4	5.7	7
Pennsylvania	Clinton 4.0	1.4	20
Rhode Island	Clinton 21.8	5.7	4
South Carolina	Trump 8.4	2.1	9
South Dakota	Trump 14.2	3.8	3
Tennessee	Trump 14.2	6.2	11
Texas	Trump 9.3	6.5	38
Utah	Trump 9.8	38.2	6
Vermont	Clinton 25.5	10.1	3
Virginia	Clinton 5.5	1.6	13
Washington	Clinton 13.3	1.6	12
West Virginia	Safe		5
Wisconsin	Clinton 4.8	2.1	10
Wyoming	Safe		3

Another two days’ worth of national opinion polls has Hillary Clinton down 0.3% to 47.1% and Donald Trump up by the same amount to 45.3%, while the state-level results produce no change to a situation that credits Clinton with the barest of victories in the electoral college, by 272 votes to 266. However, as the table below shows, this factors in wins for Trump by the barest of margins in Florida and North Carolina, with other particularly tight results including Clinton’s lead in Colorado and Trump’s lead in Nevada. See here for a map display of the results. You can hear my further thoughts on the state of the race at this Sportsbet podcast.

State	Margin	Swing	EV
Alabama	Safe		9
Alaska	Trump 11.8	2.2	3
Arizona	Trump 3.3	5.8	11
Arkansas	Trump 24.6	0.9	6
California	Clinton 21.5	1.6	55
Colorado	Clinton 1.8	3.6	9
Connecticut	Safe		7
D.C.	Safe		3
Delaware	Clinton 17.0	1.6	3
Florida	Trump 1.1	2.0	29
Georgia	Trump 7.5	0.3	16
Hawaii	Safe		4
Idaho	Trump 22.4	9.5	4
Illinois	Clinton 13.0	3.9	20
Indiana	Trump 10.8	0.6	11
Iowa	Trump 3.5	9.3	6
Kansas	Trump 19.4	2.3	6
Kentucky	Safe		8
Louisiana	Trump 16.3	0.9	8
Maine	Clinton 5.8	9.5	4
Maryland	Clinton 32.0	5.9	10
Massachusetts	Clinton 24.3	1.2	11
Michigan	Clinton 5.5	4.0	16
Minnesota	Clinton 6.3	1.4	10
Mississippi	Safe		6
Missouri	Trump 11.8	2.4	10
Montana	Trump 16.6	3.0	3
Nebraska	Trump 20.0	1.8	5
Nevada	Trump 1.6	8.3	6
New Hampshire	Clinton 3.3	2.3	4
New Jersey	Clinton 10.3	7.5	14
New Mexico	Clinton 5.4	4.8	5
New York	Clinton 19.9	8.3	29
North Carolina	Trump 0.9	1.1	15
North Dakota	Safe		3
Ohio	Trump 4.4	7.4	18
Oklahoma	Safe		7
Oregon	Clinton 5.5	6.6	7
Pennsylvania	Clinton 3.4	2.0	20
Rhode Island	Clinton 20.6	6.9	4
South Carolina	Trump 9.4	1.1	9
South Dakota	Trump 14.9	3.1	3
Tennessee	Trump 15.6	4.8	11
Texas	Trump 9.2	6.6	38
Utah	Trump 9.5	38.5	6
Vermont	Clinton 24.6	11.0	3
Virginia	Clinton 5.4	1.5	13
Washington	Clinton 12.1	2.8	12
West Virginia	Safe		5
Wisconsin	Clinton 3.3	3.6	10
Wyoming	Safe		3

The latest reading of my presidential poll tracker is rather a lot different from the last, which is about half due to a very substantial shift in the polls in Donald Trump’s favour since the beginning of last week, and half due to me changing what had been a very conservative smoothing parameter that was ironing out short-term volatility, including the recent turn to Trump. It so happens that Trump is now credited with narrow leads in most of the swing states, such that Clinton’s now modest lead on national voting intention is projected as an extremely tight outcome in the electoral college of Clinton 272, Trump 266. It wouldn’t surprise me if the model was overshooting in its present reading of the move back to Trump, which can be a difficulty when sharp reversals occur, but we should get more clarity on that score over the coming days. An interactive map display of the results can be viewed here, my paywalled take on the emails development can be read in Crikey here, and below is a trend chart followed by a state-by-state accounting of my projections.

State	Margin	Swing	EV
Alabama	Safe		9
Alaska	Trump 11.2	2.8	3
Arizona	Trump 2.2	6.9	11
Arkansas	Trump 24.4	0.7	6
California	Clinton 22.1	1.0	55
Colorado	Clinton 2.0	3.4	9
Connecticut	Safe		7
D.C.	Safe		3
Delaware	Clinton 17.4	1.2	3
Florida	Trump 1.2	2.1	29
Georgia	Trump 7.2	0.6	16
Hawaii	Safe		4
Idaho	Trump 22.1	9.8	4
Illinois	Clinton 16.4	0.5	20
Indiana	Trump 10.6	0.4	11
Iowa	Trump 3.1	8.9	6
Kansas	Trump 19.2	2.5	6
Kentucky	Safe		8
Louisiana	Trump 16.1	1.1	8
Maine	Clinton 4.4	10.9	4
Maryland	Clinton 32.6	6.5	10
Massachusetts	Clinton 24.8	1.7	11
Michigan	Clinton 5.5	4.0	16
Minnesota	Clinton 6.6	1.1	10
Mississippi	Safe		6
Missouri	Trump 10.2	0.8	10
Montana	Trump 16.2	2.6	3
Nebraska	Trump 19.7	2.1	5
Nevada	Trump 0.9	7.6	6
New Hampshire	Clinton 3.2	2.4	4
New Jersey	Clinton 10.6	7.2	14
New Mexico	Clinton 5.8	4.4	5
New York	Clinton 20.0	8.2	29
North Carolina	Trump 0.6	1.4	15
North Dakota	Safe		3
Ohio	Trump 4.0	7.0	18
Oklahoma	Safe		7
Oregon	Clinton 5.3	6.8	7
Pennsylvania	Clinton 3.2	2.2	20
Rhode Island	Clinton 21.2	6.3	4
South Carolina	Trump 9.1	1.4	9
South Dakota	Trump 14.8	3.2	3
Tennessee	Trump 15.0	5.4	11
Texas	Trump 8.0	7.8	38
Utah	Trump 9.3	38.7	6
Vermont	Clinton 24.7	10.9	3
Virginia	Clinton 5.9	2.0	13
Washington	Clinton 12.7	2.2	12
West Virginia	Safe		5
Wisconsin	Clinton 2.7	4.2	10
Wyoming	Safe		3

While you were asleep, a story you can read about in depth elsewhere shook, and then partly settled, in relation to a story about the FBI looking into some emails relating to the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s server. FBI sources have been dialling back the story since it was first retailed by Republican opportunists as a reopening of an investigation into Hillary Clinton, but the big question of the campaign now is the extent to which the flurry of confusing information relating to a sore spot for Clinton will damage her over the remaining eleven days of the campaign. When the story broke at 1pm US eastern daylight time, the Dow Jones industrial index dropped 0.52% immediately, and 0.81% over the course of an hour. As further detail about the story emerged, it rebounded to its present level around 0.43% lower than it had been at 1pm.

So with all that kept in mind, here’s my latest update to the presidential poll tracker, which now has Clinton at 49.4% and Trump at 42.7%, respectively up 0.2% and 0.6% on where they were when I last ran it last weekend.

And here we have my all-new accounting of how things stand state by state. For each state with polling available, I have determined a “deviation” score based on aggregated results from state level polling, and how they have differed from the national trend. Each state poll’s deviation result is then aggregated into a state total, where the state polls get a weighting of two if they were from October and one if they were from September. Each state’s deviation score is then applied to the present national total. States with no polling available are identified as “safe” for one side or the other. From this I calculate 358 electoral college votes for Clinton and 171 for Trump, if no effort is made to take into account the peculiarities of Nebraska and Maine, or the independent challenge in Utah.

State	Margin	Swing	EV
Alabama	Safe		9
Alaska	Trump 1.6	12.3	3
Arizona	Clinton 2.4	11.5	11
Arkansas	Trump 21.3	2.4	6
California	Clinton 25.4	2.3	55
Colorado	Clinton 6.3	0.9	9
Connecticut	Safe		7
D.C.	Safe		3
Delaware	Clinton 22.9	4.3	3
Florida	Clinton 3.1	2.2	29
Georgia	Trump 3.1	4.7	16
Hawaii	Safe		4
Idaho	Trump 19.1	12.8	4
Illinois	Clinton 20.9	4.1	20
Indiana	Trump 5.8	4.4	11
Iowa	Clinton 0.4	5.4	6
Kansas	Trump 10.6	11.1	6
Kentucky	Safe		8
Louisiana	Trump 12.8	4.4	8
Maine	Clinton 6.8	8.5	4
Maryland	Clinton 37.1	11.1	10
Massachusetts	Clinton 28.6	5.4	11
Michigan	Clinton 9.7	0.2	16
Minnesota	Clinton 8.7	1.0	10
Mississippi	Safe		6
Missouri	Trump 6.4	2.9	10
Montana	Trump 12.7	1.0	3
Nebraska	Trump 15.5	6.3	5
Nevada	Clinton 3.5	3.2	6
New Hampshire	Clinton 7.3	1.8	4
New Jersey	Clinton 15.0	2.8	14
New Mexico	Clinton 10.9	0.8	5
New York	Clinton 24.2	4.0	29
North Carolina	Clinton 3.1	5.2	15
North Dakota	Safe		3
Ohio	Clinton 0.4	2.5	18
Oklahoma	Safe		7
Oregon	Clinton 10.4	1.7	7
Pennsylvania	Clinton 7.2	1.8	20
Rhode Island	Clinton 21.6	5.9	4
South Carolina	Trump 1.7	8.8	9
South Dakota	Trump 6.9	11.1	3
Tennessee	Trump 9.8	10.6	11
Texas	Trump 4.0	11.8	38
Utah	Trump 4.8	43.2	6
Vermont	Clinton 14.2	21.4	3
Virginia	Clinton 9.9	6.1	13
Washington	Clinton 16.3	1.4	12
West Virginia	Safe		5
Wisconsin	Clinton 7.3	0.4	10
Wyomong	Safe		3

When I last performed this exercise on October 4, half way between the first and second debates, Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump 47.8% to 43.7%. Since then, Clinton has gained 1.4% and Trump has lost 1.6%. Two and a bit weeks to go …