While you were asleep, a story you can read about in depth elsewhere shook, and then partly settled, in relation to a story about the FBI looking into some emails relating to the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s server. FBI sources have been dialling back the story since it was first retailed by Republican opportunists as a reopening of an investigation into Hillary Clinton, but the big question of the campaign now is the extent to which the flurry of confusing information relating to a sore spot for Clinton will damage her over the remaining eleven days of the campaign. When the story broke at 1pm US eastern daylight time, the Dow Jones industrial index dropped 0.52% immediately, and 0.81% over the course of an hour. As further detail about the story emerged, it rebounded to its present level around 0.43% lower than it had been at 1pm.
So with all that kept in mind, here’s my latest update to the presidential poll tracker, which now has Clinton at 49.4% and Trump at 42.7%, respectively up 0.2% and 0.6% on where they were when I last ran it last weekend.
And here we have my all-new accounting of how things stand state by state. For each state with polling available, I have determined a “deviation” score based on aggregated results from state level polling, and how they have differed from the national trend. Each state poll’s deviation result is then aggregated into a state total, where the state polls get a weighting of two if they were from October and one if they were from September. Each state’s deviation score is then applied to the present national total. States with no polling available are identified as “safe” for one side or the other. From this I calculate 358 electoral college votes for Clinton and 171 for Trump, if no effort is made to take into account the peculiarities of Nebraska and Maine, or the independent challenge in Utah.
| State | Margin | Swing | EV |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Safe | 9 | |
| Alaska | Trump 1.6 | 12.3 | 3 |
| Arizona | Clinton 2.4 | 11.5 | 11 |
| Arkansas | Trump 21.3 | 2.4 | 6 |
| California | Clinton 25.4 | 2.3 | 55 |
| Colorado | Clinton 6.3 | 0.9 | 9 |
| Connecticut | Safe | 7 | |
| D.C. | Safe | 3 | |
| Delaware | Clinton 22.9 | 4.3 | 3 |
| Florida | Clinton 3.1 | 2.2 | 29 |
| Georgia | Trump 3.1 | 4.7 | 16 |
| Hawaii | Safe | 4 | |
| Idaho | Trump 19.1 | 12.8 | 4 |
| Illinois | Clinton 20.9 | 4.1 | 20 |
| Indiana | Trump 5.8 | 4.4 | 11 |
| Iowa | Clinton 0.4 | 5.4 | 6 |
| Kansas | Trump 10.6 | 11.1 | 6 |
| Kentucky | Safe | 8 | |
| Louisiana | Trump 12.8 | 4.4 | 8 |
| Maine | Clinton 6.8 | 8.5 | 4 |
| Maryland | Clinton 37.1 | 11.1 | 10 |
| Massachusetts | Clinton 28.6 | 5.4 | 11 |
| Michigan | Clinton 9.7 | 0.2 | 16 |
| Minnesota | Clinton 8.7 | 1.0 | 10 |
| Mississippi | Safe | 6 | |
| Missouri | Trump 6.4 | 2.9 | 10 |
| Montana | Trump 12.7 | 1.0 | 3 |
| Nebraska | Trump 15.5 | 6.3 | 5 |
| Nevada | Clinton 3.5 | 3.2 | 6 |
| New Hampshire | Clinton 7.3 | 1.8 | 4 |
| New Jersey | Clinton 15.0 | 2.8 | 14 |
| New Mexico | Clinton 10.9 | 0.8 | 5 |
| New York | Clinton 24.2 | 4.0 | 29 |
| North Carolina | Clinton 3.1 | 5.2 | 15 |
| North Dakota | Safe | 3 | |
| Ohio | Clinton 0.4 | 2.5 | 18 |
| Oklahoma | Safe | 7 | |
| Oregon | Clinton 10.4 | 1.7 | 7 |
| Pennsylvania | Clinton 7.2 | 1.8 | 20 |
| Rhode Island | Clinton 21.6 | 5.9 | 4 |
| South Carolina | Trump 1.7 | 8.8 | 9 |
| South Dakota | Trump 6.9 | 11.1 | 3 |
| Tennessee | Trump 9.8 | 10.6 | 11 |
| Texas | Trump 4.0 | 11.8 | 38 |
| Utah | Trump 4.8 | 43.2 | 6 |
| Vermont | Clinton 14.2 | 21.4 | 3 |
| Virginia | Clinton 9.9 | 6.1 | 13 |
| Washington | Clinton 16.3 | 1.4 | 12 |
| West Virginia | Safe | 5 | |
| Wisconsin | Clinton 7.3 | 0.4 | 10 |
| Wyomong | Safe | 3 |
William
Do you include all polling or only polling in September and October?
Do you weight each poll the same irrespective of time?
I do not understand your EV score – what is it comparing?
According to the above figures, taking out all the states where Clinton is less than 5 points ahead, she still has more than the 270 needed to win.
Thanks for the state by state William, very useful.
Dan
Unless something really, really strange happens I cannot see any way other than a Clinton victory. I suspect that some states like Ohio, Iowa and Florida will go to Trump in the final upshot, but that would not be enough to change the outcome.
The Clinton home state, Arkansas, has Trump ahead by 21%.
Arkansas is a red state it’s one of the reasons the Democrats ran Clinton (to switch it and to say to red state voters that Clinton wasn’t a big city elite). But the Clinton’s haven’t lived in Arkansas for 2 decades, and except for immigrant heavy states the Red Stated have gotten redder , so that effect is well and truly gone.
It actually looks like she’s got a home state boost in New York but since it’s deep blue to start with its not really noticeable (especially considering Trump should be getting a clean Home State vote and isn’t).
I’m a little surprised by how badly she’s polling in DC though.
Only September and October. October polls get twice as much weight as September ones. Keep in mind that’s what being measured here is their deviation from the national result. So if a bunch of new national polls come through that show Trump improving without any new state polls being published, I will show Trump as improving in every state by the exact same amount. EV simply shows the number of electoral college votes that state has.
Interesting to see Clinton closing the gap in Alaska and South Carolina. Don’t know if she can pull it off, but those would be pretty embarrassing losses for the GOP.
I’m very wary of that Alaska result, because it’s only based on one poll.
As said before, if Clinton wins Alaska, Georgia and S. Carolina, then she wins every state with an oceanic coastline. I must admit I find the S.Carolina result surprising.
Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that split their electoral college vote. I understand that the district boundaries of Nebraska have been re-drawn since Obama won the 2nd district (based on Omaha) in 2008, making it harder for a Clinton to win.
South Carolina is also based on only one poll.
Thanks William
538 seems to have a few more South Carolina polls now – or are they extrapolated National Polls
Ohio has recently tipped Republican as has Arizona – not sure why – I still cannot fathom Nate Silver’s methods. He is still counting some July polls.
Is it just me or has this supposed October surprise re: Clintons email investigation turned out o be a big fat nothing? I am assuming the polls will return to their previous trajectory over the next few days.
Blanket
The polls seem to be following a wavelike path and are currently on a down. for Clinton. Will not reach zero until after the election I think.