ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor in Western Australia

A new WA poll finds the Liberals taking a slight knock since the last such poll in mid-September, but otherwise shows little change.

The West Australian today carries a ReachTEL poll of state voting intention showing Labor with a lead of 52-48, up from 51-49 at the last such poll in mid-September. On the primary vote, the Liberals are down 2.3% to 35.9%, the Nationals are up 0.7% to 6.1%, Labor are up 0.2% to 36.7%, and the Greens are down 0.8% to 7.7%. Mark McGowan’s lead over Colin Barnett as preferred premier is up from 54.1-45.9 to 55.6-44.4. The poll was conducted on Thursday evening, from a sample of 1785.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

9 comments on “ReachTEL: 52-48 to Labor in Western Australia”

  1. Still not going too well for Colin but still a lot of seats for Labor to win. The government is an ‘old’ one and I just wonder if the electorate is ready to/for change?

  2. WWP: WA is a Liberal bastion – the last time we sent more Labor MPs than Liberal MPs to Canberra was in 1987. We’re a right-wing State which appears to be more than comfortable with right-wing politics in general; only incompetence really gets WA in the mood for a change of government, and that only if it’s proven beyond a reasonable doubt (for the Liberals, at least).

  3. Funny that the Sundry Slimes has Barnett in front in a WA speaks poll of 8800 odd Sundry Slimes readers 22% preferred Barnett and 19% liked McGowan,while 47% odd dont want privatization of power how reliable these figures are is another matter.
    Given the Right wing lean of Both WA papers soon to owned by Stokes what a wonderful situation in this state thank Gawd for the net,I read neither as I don’t like paying for BS I hope Labor wins

  4. I saw the Sunday Times beat up of ‘We are doing it tough, but with an ounce of good luck Colin will get back and the good times will roll’ stuff from the paper. It has ever be thus with this apology for journalism and the only reason I buy it is the TV mag. I would not put too much store in a self-generated response outcome of 8000 responses. It is true that Labor needs 10 seats and this will not be easy come by. However, the polls for the LNP have been sour for months now. Who is kidding who that Colin has much more time left in any event? The event of a Labor win is nothing to cheer about in some respects as the State’s finances are in a total mess and it will take two terms to sort it out I would have thought. The old adage is that governments lose government rather than oppositions win, and this of itself does not bode well for the LNP at the moment. The Nationals are doing all they can to distance themselves for any kind of responsible policy and it is all to do with political survival for them.

  5. Labor’s 2-CP in 2013 was 39.31% (per Antony Green, p21)$FILE/Antony+green+2013.pdf

    If Labor achieve 52% in March, the swing will be around 13%. Were such a swing to be uniform, based on 2013 boundaries and results, Labor would pick up:

    Balcatta, Belmont, Bunbury, Dawesville, Forrestfield, Jandakot, Joondalup, Kalamunda, Morley, Mt Lawley, Murray-Wellington, North-West Central, Perth, Pilbara, Riverton, Swan Hills, Wanneroo.

    Many of these seats have been re-distributed in ways that do not help Labor, but there are a couple of seats that now more winnable, including Southern River.

    It’s also worth noting that voter awareness of the election date is very low. More than 2/3 voters would likely not be conscious the election is due in March. As the election draws closer, opinion in favour of change is likely to strengthen.

    On paper there are as many as 19 seats vulnerable to Labor. Sentiment for change is really very strong and it should surprise no one if Labor pick up as many as 15 seats. If the swing runs to 15%, Labor may win more than 20 seats.

  6. Labor’s 2-CP in 2013 was 39.31% (per Antony Green, p21)

    That figure doesn’t account for Liberal/Nationals preference leakage, which in the context of this election was considerable. For an apples-and-apples comparison, you need the two-party preferred nearer the top of the same page, i.e. 42.8%.


    Union-backed poll tips rout in key Liberal seat
    Gareth Parker – The West Australian on November 1, 2016, 12:45 am

    The Liberal Party would easily lose the safe seat of Wanneroo to Labor if the results of a new poll are replicated on State election day in March.

    Poll shows WA voters sick of ‘GST rip-off’
    Gareth Parker – The West Australian on November 1, 2016, 1:00 am

    West Australians have sent a clear message to Canberra — they believe they are being ripped off by the carve-up of the $61 billion national goods and services tax pool.

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