11:31am Friday With 98% of Super Tuesday delegates allocated in the NYT count, Trump leads Haley by 1,062 delegates to 91. The only consolation for Haley is that her vote share has risen to 50.2% in Vermont. If that holds, she will win all 17 Vermont delegates, not just the 9 from a proportional split.
7:34am Thursday summary Haley has withdrawn. It’s been obvious for a long time, but Trump will be the Republican nominee. Dean Phillips also withdrew from the Democratic contest, so it’s virtually official: a Trump vs Biden rematch.
Trump won the Utah caucus by 57-42 last night. This was easily his worst state in 2016, but the Mormons in Utah clearly like him better now. The NYT delegate count gives Trump 1,004 delegates to 89 for Haley, with 1,215 needed to win. Trump will reach that target by March 19. Other than Vermont (Haley by four), Trump’s margins ranged from 15 points in Utah to 76 in Alaska. He now leads the Republican national popular vote count on The Green Papers by 71.7-24.7 (this includes all states that have held primaries or caucuses so far).
This will be my final live blog on the US primaries, and probably my last post here for a while.
Live Commentary
6:28pm Trump has crushed Haley in Alaska by 87.6-12.0. Alaska had proportional rep for delegates, but a 13% threshold was needed. With Haley below 13%, Trump will take all 29 delegates.
4:49pm I don’t know why Utah, where polls closed at 2pm AEDT, still has under 1% counted. The Green Papers now has Trump up to 936 delegates, with Haley on 83.
4:05pm On the Green Papers’ delegate tracker, Trump now leads with 829 to 68 for Haley. and he’s well on track for the 1,215 needed to win. Today’s primaries have also enhanced his popular vote position; he now leads Haley by 71-25 on overall popular votes in the primaries so far.
3:20pm Trump has been CALLED the winner in California, and will take all 169 delegates from that state. In the Senate “jungle primary”, where all candidates from different parties compete on the same ballot and the top two go through to the general election regardless of party, Dem Schiff and Rep Garvey are very likely to qualify.
2:43pm Vermont has been CALLED for Haley, and she currently leads Trump by 49.7-46.0 with 92% in. Can she get over the 50%+ needed to win all 17 delegates?
2:16pm With 90% counted in Vermont, Haley leads Trump by 49.5-46.2, and should win. But due to votes for dropped out candidates, she may not get the 50%+ required to win all of Vermont’s 17 delegates. If she doesn’t, they’ll be proportionally allocated.
1:58pm And now Trump is up to 645 pledged delegates in Green Papers’ count.
1:41pm Green Papers now has Trump up to 558 “soft pledged” delegates, while Haley is still on 43.
1:35pm Minnesota and Colorado, where polls closed at 1pm AEDT, have both been called for Trump, and he’ll easily win both. Haley is still ahead on the NYT projection for Vermont by 2.7% with 52% in.
1:30pm Biden is also romping to huge victories in the Dem primaries.
1:21pm The NYT has been slow to call delegates. The Green Papers has Trump up to 325 delegates, while Haley is still on 43. I have made great use of this site in these articles as they give all the delegate rules.
1:04pm With all polls now closed in Texas, that’s been CALLED for Trump, with the NYT needle pointing to a final result of Trump by 53. Trump will win all 47 Texan statewide delegates and probably at least 90 district delegates (three delegates per district won).
12:26pm The NYT needle is at Haley by 2.3 in Vermont with 28% in. Everything else looks like a Trump blowout.
12:11pm North Carolina has been CALLED for Trump as he leads by 51 points with 9% in. NC is a closed primary available to only registered Reps. The NYT needle has Trump by 52 there. Tennessee has also been called for Trump.
11:54am Trump back ahead in Vermont in both the live count and the NYT projection with 11% in. This is a heavily Dem state at general elections that had an “open” primary, as there’s no registration by party in Vermont.
11:41am Haley is now ahead in Vermont with 7% in, and the NYT needle gives her a 1.6-point forecast lead.
11:35am Hete’s the main NYT page to follow all the results as they come in. There are also congressional primary races in many states voting today. In Vermont, the needle only has Trump winning by 1.6 points.
11:30am With 10% counted in Virginia, it’s been CALLED for Trump, as he leads Haley by 64-34. The NYT needle is at Trump by 31.
Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
Polls close between 11am and 4pm AEDT today for Republican presidential contests in 15 states that will allocate a total of 865 delegates. These include the two most populous states of California and Texas. The large majority of polls in Texas close at 12pm AEDT, but the area around El Paso closes an hour later. Polls close in California at 3pm AEDT.
All of California’s 169 delegates go to the winner if a vote majority is reached (which is almost certain as there are only two candidates remaining). In Texas, the 47 statewide delegates go to the state’s winner, and the 114 district delegates (three for each of Texas’ 38 Congressional Districts) go to the district’s winner. Many other states voting today also have a majority vote wins all delegates rule by statewide or district.
Donald Trump leads Nikki Haley by massive margins in Californian and Texan polls. In the FiveThirtyEight aggregates, he leads by 73.4-18.6 in California, and by 78.4-14.4 in Texas. California has a “closed” primary where only registered Republicans can vote in the Republican primary. In national polls, Trump leads by 77,3-15.2, while Joe Biden leads Dean Phillips in national Democratic primary polls by 75.9-8.2.
In contests held over the last few days, Trump won all 54 delegates available in Missouri, all 39 at the Michigan state convention (these were awarded separately to the 16 that were on offer at the February 27 Michigan primary), all 32 in Idaho, and all 29 in North Dakota. But Haley won all 19 delegates in Washington DC, which gives Democrats over 85% at general elections. Trump now leads Haley on the Republican delegate count by 273-43, with 1,215 needed to win the nomination.
No popular votes were recorded in Missouri, but Trump won all 924 delegates to the state convention at Saturday’s caucuses. In Michigan, Trump won by 98-2 at the state convention after winning the primary 68-27. In Idaho, he won by 85-13, and in North Dakota by 85-14, while Haley won DC by 63-33. These were majority winner takes all contests, except in ND where 60% was required for WTA.
Most national general election polls give Trump a lead over Biden, by roughly a low single-digit margin, and Trump is likely further advantaged by the Electoral College system. In FiveThirtyEight averages, Trump’s net favourability is -8.8, while Biden’s net approval is -18.0. Trump’s ratings have improved recently, while Biden’s haven’t changed much. In a legal victory for Trump, the Supreme Court on Monday unanimously overturned a Colorado court’s decision, so Trump will be on the ballot paper in all states in November.
Right likely to take control of Portugal at Sunday’s election
In January 2022 elections, the centre-left Socialists won an outright majority in Portugal’s legislature. But they had a series of major scandals that led to the resignation of the PM. In November 2023, the Portuguese president sacked the government and called elections for this Sunday, about two years early. The president, who is popularly elected for a five-year term, has more power in Portugal than in most other parliamentary democracies.
The 230 MPs are elected by proportional representation in multi-member electorates. This system gives bigger parties more seats than national PR. Most polls show the conservative Democratic Alliance (AD) leading the Socialists with about 17% for the far-right Chega. An alliance between AD and Chega will easily have enough seats for a majority, with the only question whether they will form such an alliance after the election. The Socialists have held government since shortly after the October 2015 election.