Category: US Politics

Argentine presidential runoff election live

Live commentary Monday morning on the Argentine runoff that could be won by the far-right Javier Milei. And should US Democrats replace Biden as their presidential nominee?

Live Commentary

9:18am Tuesday Milei will be inaugurated on December 10 for a four-year term. This is the second time the centre-left party has lost an Argentine presidential runoff after leading in the first round; this also occurred in 2015.

2:17pm With 99.3% counted, Milei has defeated Massa by 55.69-44.31, an 11.4% margin.

11:13am Legislative results: The better news for the left in Argentina is that, because of a system similar to first past the post for the Senate in the October 22 legislative and first round presidential elections, they still hold the Senate.

Massa’s Union for the Homeland (UftH) won 13 of the 24 senators elected, Milei’s Liberty Advances (LA) won seven senators and Bullrich’s Together for Change (TfC) two. UftH has a total of 35 of 72, while TfC and LA combined hold 31 seats. Five of the six others are formerly from the centre-left.

Proportional representation was used in the Chamber of Deputies, and UftH holds 108 of the 257 seats, with 93 TfC and 38 LA, giving the combined right (131 seats) a majority in the Chamber. 130 of the 257 Chamber seats were up at this election, and 24 of the 72 senators. The next Argentine legislative election is in late 2025.

An aside here: the Spanish Wikipedia page on the Argentine legislative results is better than the English page as it gives total numbers of seats, not just those elected in 2023. I use Google translate.

11:12am Over 96% counted, and Milei leads Massa by 55.8-44.2.

10:43am Bullrich voters swung behind Milei. In the first round in Buenos Aires city, Bullrich won 41.2%, Massa 32.2% and Milei 20.0%. In the runoff, Milei is winning this city by 57.3-42.7 with 93% in.

10:34am With 88% of precincts reporting, Milei leads by 55.9-44.1. The poll that gave Milei a 12.8-point lead will easily be the best.

10:14am Massa has conceded before official results are released at 11am. 80% has been counted already.

9:35am According to Bloomberg, Milei is probably winning according to leaked results.

9:11am Monday Bloomberg’s live blog is here and their results page is here. They expect results at 11am AEDT.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

Polls close at 8am AEDT Monday for Argentina’s presidential runoff election. Argentina doesn’t release results until a substantial amount has been counted. In the October 22 first round, the first results were released about 11:20am AEDT. I expect faster counting with only two candidates and no other contests.

In the first round, the centre-left Sergio Massa won 36.8%, the far-right Javier Milei 30.0% and the conservative Patricia Bullrich 23.8%. A centrist candidate won 6.7% and the far-left 2.7%. Bullrich endorsed Milei on October 25. Milei is an admirer of Donald Trump and has called climate change a “socialist lie”.

Voting is compulsory. Polls mostly have Milei leads by mid-single figures, but a few have narrow Massa leads. One poll though gave Milei a 12.8-point lead. In a TV debate on November 12, Milei praised former British PM Margaret Thatcher. Thatcher went to war with Argentina in 1982 over the Falkland Islands; the British sank an Argentine warship, killing 323 people on board.

The only province out of 24 won by Bullrich in the first round was Buenos Aires city (note: this isn’t part of Buenos Aires province). Massa will hope that the higher-income and better-educated people in the city who supported Bullrich can’t stand Milei.

At the previous Argentine presidential election in 2019, the centre-left Alberto Fernández ousted conservative Mauricio Macri after one term by a 48.2-40.3 margin (a runoff isn’t needed if a candidate achieves over 45%). In 2015, Macri had a 51.3-48.7 runoff win. In 2011, current vice president Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who is now hated by the right, won a massive landslide with 54% in the first round; her nearest opponent (a socialist) got 17%.

Despite being eligible, Alberto Fernández did not contest this election, and his party nominated Massa as its candidate. Had Fernández stood, he would have been blamed for the over 100% inflation. I believe Massa has a much better chance to win than Fernández would have.

Should Biden follow Fernández’s example?

Joe Biden will turn 81 on Monday. Since March this year, his ratings in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate have worsened, and he’s currently at 55.5% disapprove, 39.0% approve (net -16.5). Most national polls now show Trump ahead, with or without third party candidates, and recent Siena polls for The New York Times gave Trump four-to-ten-point leads in five of the six closest 2020 Biden-won states.

While Trump led overall by five points in the Siena polls, an unnamed generic Democrat would lead Trump by eight. In a similar exercise a year before the 2020 election, Biden led Trump by two and a generic Democrat led by three. This suggests replacing Biden with a far younger Democrat would enhance Democrats’ chances of defeating Trump.

Pro-Biden Democrats argue that the November 7 off-year elections were great for Democrats, and therefore the polls showing Biden losing are wrong. There are two objections: first, that the off-year election polls were OK and polls for next November are measuring a completely different election.

Second, legislative elections were mediocre for Democrats. The celebrated victories in the Virginia legislature were by bare majorities in both chambers – 21-19 in the Senate, 51-49 in the House. This implies a Democratic lead by low single digits in Virginia overall. If Biden only wins Virginia by two points after winning by 10.1 in 2020, it’s very likely Trump wins the election overall.

Spanish Socialists form government

On Thursday, four months after the Spanish election that right-wing parties had been expected to win easily, current Socialist PM Pedro Sánchez won an investiture vote by 179 votes to 171. The Socialists made a controversial deal with the regionalist Junts party, which was the kingmaker after the election. This will be a second term for the Socialists.

No government has yet been formed in New Zealand, with National, ACT and NZ First still negotiating. During the next week there will be a US federal by-election in a safe Republican seat and a Dutch election. I will cover these elections in a post on next Saturday’s NZ Port Waikato by-election, which National should win.

US off-year elections live

Live commentary on Wednesday of a few US state elections and a federal by-election a year before the next US presidential election.

Further analysis Thursday morning

While these elections were good for Dems, New York Times analyst Nate Cohn says they were low-turnout affairs. The types of voters that didn’t vote yesterday, but are likely to vote in a presidential election, are much more anti-Biden, and more motivated by economic factors than abortion.

Furthermore, the legislative elections, where voters don’t know so much about candidates so they vote for parties more than for candidates, were mediocre for Dems compared with Biden’s margins. In Virginia, Dems won the Senate by 21-19 and the House by a likely 51-49. But Biden won Virginia by 10.1% in 2020. In the close seats, Reps ran well ahead of Trump.

In New Jersey, Dems won the Senate by 25-15 and the House by 51-29. But if they’d won the NJ popular vote by close to Biden’s 15.9 point margin in 2020, the single-member system should have produced a bigger blowout. In Mississippi, Reps won the Senate by 36-16 and the House by 79-41 with two others. That suggests a blowout; it was Trump by 16.5 in 2020.

Republicans also far exceeded their governor candidate’s performance in other statewide races in Mississippi and Kentucky.

Live Commentary

5:37pm Overall, today was decent for Dems. They gained full control of the Virginia legislature after Reps won the House in a big swing two years ago. They held the federal Rhode Island seat in a by-election by a bigger margin than in 2022. They held the Kentucky governorship despite it being a very Republican state at presidential elections. And two referendums supported by Dems passed in Ohio.

However, Biden remains unpopular, and today’s results are not good predictors of the outcome of the November 2024 presidential election. But they’ll mean Biden is less likely to face a real challenge to his re-nomination as 2024 Dem presidential candidate.

5:13pm Rep Reeves has been called the Mississippi governor winner, defeating Dem Presley by 51.6-46.6 with 94% in.

4:15pm Dems have now been called the winners of both chambers of the Virginia legislature, gaining control of the House and maintaining it in the Senate. Nate Silver says that, since 2917, Dems have done well in US elections when Trump isn’t on the ballot paper with the exception of November 2021.

3:57pm In Mississippi, Reps have easily retained control of both chambers of the state legislature, while Dems are on track to retain control in New Jersey.

3:40pm In Mississippi, with 86% in, Rep Reeves leads by 52.3-45.8 and Wasserman has called for Reeves. Dems have won the Virginia state Senate 21-16 with 3 uncalled, and lead in the House 48-42 with 10 uncalled. Dems have also won a state Supreme Court judgeship in Pennsylvania, where a Dem defeated a Rep 54.1-45.9.

2:10pm Mississippi looks very likely to be held by the incumbent Rep governor Reeves, with Wasserman pointing out a disastrous result for the Dem challenger.

2:07pm In Virginia, Dems lead the state Senate in called races by 18-14 with 8 still undecided. They lead the House by 42-32 with 26 undecided.

1:46pm Over 95% reporting in Rhode Island, and the Dem wins the by-election by 64.8-35.2. That’s slightly better than the 64.0-35.8 margin Dems won by in 2022, and much bigger than the poll that suggested only an 11-point Dem win.

1:42pm In Ohio, both the pro-abortion and the pro-marijuana amendments have been called for “yes”. However, the pro-abortion amendment is doing much less well than polls suggested (winning 56-44 when polls had it up by over 20 points).

1:20pm Media have now called Kentucky governor for Dem incumbent Beshear, who leads by 52.7-47.3 with 86% in.

1:17pm With 12% counted in Mississippi, the incumbent Rep Reeves leads the Dem Presley for governor by 56.0-42.5.

1:12pm Wasserman says Dems have retained control of the Virginia state Senate. With 41% counted in Ohio, the pro-abortion amendment wins (current lead 57.4-42.6).

12:55pm With 33% counted in Ohio, the pro-abortion measure is winning by 59.1-40.9 and the pro-marijuana one by 55.7-44.3.

12:22pm Fast counting in RI, where polls closed at 12pm. Dem now leads by 63.4-36.6 with 75% in.

12:16pm In Rhode Island, the Dem has been called the winner of the federal by-election, and currently leads by 62.4-37.6 with 58% in.

12:10pm In Virginia it’s a 6-6 tie in the Senate in called races; 21 needed for a majority. In the House, Dems lead by 24-19; 51 needed for majority.

11:51am Both Ohio referendums, one on a right to abortion and one on legalising marijuana, are far ahead, abortion by 66-34 and marijuana by 57.5-42.5. The NYT prediction is both will win easily.

11:31am Wasserman has CALLED Kentucky governor for Dem Beshear. He currently leads by 56.6-43.4 with 31% in.

11:19am US analyst Dave Wasserman is tweeting the results as counties complete their counts, and these are so far looking good for Beshear (Dem) in Kentucky compared to 2019, which he won.

10:58am 12% now reporting in Kentucky, and Beshear leads by 60-40. This reflects early votes from the Kentucky cities of Louisville and Lexington.

10:40am Wednesday The first results from Kentucky from rural counties have the Rep Cameron leading the Dem incumbent Beshear by 53-47.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

While the next US presidential election will occur in November 2024, there are a few US state elections and a federal by-election today. There will be gubernatorial elections in Kentucky and Mississippi and legislative elections in Mississippi, Virginia and New Jersey. A federal by-election for a safe Democratic House seat will occur in Rhode Island, and there will be a referendum on a pro-abortion measure in Ohio.

Elections in Louisiana (Donald Trump by 18.6 in 2020) occurred on October 14, with runoffs if needed on November 18. In a “jungle primary” in which all candidates run on the same ballot, Republican Jeff Landry won the governorship with 51.6%, above the 50% required to win outright, with a Democrat at 25.9%. Including minor candidates, Republicans defeated Democrats by 65.5-28.5. This was a Republican gain, with the current Democratic governor term limited. Republicans extended their state Senate majority from 27-12 to 28-11 with the House to be decided after runoffs.

In Kentucky (Trump by 25.9 in 2020), incumbent Democrat Andy Beshear led Republican Daniel Cameron for governor by 49-33 in an Emerson poll in early October, but this became a 47-47 tie in the final Emerson poll last week. In Mississippi (Trump by 16.5), a mid-October poll by a Democratic pollster had incumbent Republican Tate Reeves just one point ahead of his Democratic challenger, but an early October poll gave him an 8-point lead.

Republicans hold big majorities in the Mississippi legislature, while Democrats have clear majorities in the New Jersey legislature (Joe Biden by 15.9 in 2020). The most interesting legislative election is in Virginia (Biden by 10.1), where a big swing to Republicans in 2021 gave them the governorship and a 52-48 majority in the House. The Senate was not up for election in 2021, and Democrats hold a 22-18 majority.

Polling shows the pro-abortion measure in Ohio (Trump by 8.0) winning by at least 20 points. Past votes on similar measures in various states have far exceeded Biden’s performance in 2020, but they don’t imply smashing Democratic victories any more than the big defeat for Australia’s Voice referendum implies a smashing Coalition victory. State gubernatorial elections are poorly correlated with presidential elections.

A mid-October poll for the federal by-election in Rhode Island gave the Democrat a 46-35 lead. This would be a poor result for Democrats, as Biden won 63.8% in 2020 and Democrats won by 64-36 in 2022.

Polls close at 10am AEDT Wednesday in Kentucky’s eastern time zone, 11am in Virginia and western Kentucky, 11:30am in Ohio, and 12pm in Rhode Island, Mississippi and New Jersey. I will start commenting from about 10:45am.

Despite unpopularity, Biden and Trump cruising to nominations

The Democratic and Republican nominating contests begin in early 2024, with the Iowa Republican caucus on January 15 the first contest. There are several other contests in February before many states vote on “Super Tuesday” March 5.

Trump is dominating Republican national primary polls in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate, winning 58.4%, to 13.6% for Ron DeSantis and 7.9% for Nikki Haley. He also has a big lead in Iowa. Biden hasn’t been challenged by another important Democrat. Federal Minnesota House member Dean Phillips launched a presidential campaign on October 27, but is so far not registering in Democratic national polls.

Biden and Trump’s likely nominations come despite their unpopularity with the general electorate. Biden’s ratings are currently 55.0% disapprove, 38.8% approve in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate (net -16.1), while Trump is at 54.6% unfavourable, 40.8% favourable (net -13.7).

Robert F. Kennedy Jr campaigned for the Democratic nomination, but his anti-vaxxer views were unsuitable for Democrats. He has launched an independent presidential campaign, and polls currently have him in the double digits. Biden and Trump’s unpopularity could benefit third party candidates. By the November 2024 election, Biden will be almost 82 and Trump 78.

Siena polls for The New York Times of six close 2020 Biden states were released Sunday. They gave Trump four-to-ten-point leads in five of these states, with Biden only ahead by two in Wisconsin. By 59-37, voters trusted Trump over Biden on the economy.

Meanwhile in Argentina, there will be a November 19 presidential runoff between the centre-left Massa and the far-right Milei. The three most recent polls, conducted after the conservative Bullrich endorsed Milei, suggest a close contest.

New Zealand election results finalisation

National likely to need NZ First as well as ACT after final NZ results released. Also: results of the Argentine legislative elections.

4:06pm I’ve done an article for The Conversation on the final NZ results that also includes swings from the 2020 election result and a look at the polls.

1:39pm A National win in the Port Waikato by-election would give Nat + ACT 60 of the now 123 seats, still two short of the 62 needed for a majority. So National will definitely need NZ First.

12:14pm National have dropped two seats and the Māori party have won two electorate seats in which they narrowly trailed Labour on election night. This means an overhang of two seats, with the combined right of National and ACT getting 59 of the 122 seats, three short of the 62 needed for a majority. One win by the Māori party was by just four votes.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The New Zealand electoral commission said on election night there were an estimated 567,000 “special votes” remaining to be counted or 20.2% of all votes. Unlike Australia, no counting updates are provided after election night until final results are released at 12pm AEDT Friday, three weeks after the election.

On the preliminary figures, National won 50 of the 121 seats and ACT 11, with National and ACT at 61 seats, enough for a majority. In my article Tuesday for The Conversation previewing the final results, I expect National and ACT to fall below a majority, meaning that National would also need NZ First to form a government.

Final results should be posted here when available. The winner of the November 25 Port Waikato by-election, expected to be National, will also be seated in addition to those elected on October 14.

Mike Johnson elected US House Speaker

Right-wing Republican Mike Johnson was elected US House Speaker by a 220-209 party-line vote on October 25, with all Republicans in favour and all Democrats supporting their leader Hakeem Jeffries. This vote concluded three weeks of chaos after Kevin McCarthy’s ouster, in which Republicans had unsuccessfully nominated Steve Scalise, Jim Jordan and Tom Emmer.

While the US presidential election is not until November 2024, there will be a few state elections and a federal by-election next Tuesday. I will cover these elections then and provide live commentary as results come in Wednesday AEDT.

Combined right wins Argentine lower house, but fails in Senate

In the October 22 Argentine presidential election, the centre-left Sergio Massa won 36.7%, the far-right Javier Milei 30.0% and the conservative Patricia Bullrich 23.8%. A centrist candidate won 6.8% and the far-left 2.7%. The runoff between Massa and Milei will be held November 19. Bullrich endorsed Milei on October 25.

Despite the 53.8% combined right vote, Massa is ahead in early runoff polls, although they were taken before Bullrich’s endorsement. Massa is the candidate of the incumbent Union for the Homeland (UftH) coalition.

In concurrent legislative elections, 130 of the 257 Chamber of Deputies seats were elected by proportional representation in multi-member electorates based on the 24 provinces. UftH won 58 seats (down six since the last time these seats were contested in 2019), Milei’s Liberty Advances (LA) 35 and Bullrich’s Together for Change (TfC) 31 (down 25). The other 127 seats were elected in 2021. Total seats are 108 UftH out of 257, 92 TfC, 39 LA and 18 others. The combined right of TfC and LA has a majority.

In the Senate, eight provinces held elections with the winning party taking two senators and the second party one. This is more like first past the post, and UftH benefited from the right split, winning 13 of the 24 seats (up one since the last time these seats were contested in 2017) to seven for LA and two for TfC (down ten). A regionalist party won the remaining two seats. The other 16 provinces held Senate elections in 2019 and 2021. Total senators are 36 UftH out of 72, 23 TfC, seven LA and six others.

Switzerland and Slovakia

Switzerland uses PR in multi-member electorates based on the cantons (states) to elect its lower house. At the October 22 election, the right-wing SVP won 62 of the 200 seats (up nine since 2017), the Social Democrats 41 (up two), the Centre 29 (up one), the Liberals 28 (down one), the Greens 23 (down five) and the Green Liberals ten (down six). The upper house is heavily malapportioned, with runoff elections in November to fill 15 of the 46 seats.

Instead of a single PM or president, Switzerland has a seven-member federal council, which is currently two SVP, two Social Democrats, two Liberals and one Centre. This composition is likely to be retained when the full parliament votes on December 13.

I covered the September 30 Slovakian election in early October. On October 25, the pro-Russia but economically left Smer formed a government with the support of Hlas (a breakaway from Smer) and the nationalist SNS.

US debt limit deal: passage through Congress

Will Congress pass the debt limit deal before next Monday’s deadline? Also covered: it’s not looking good for the left in either New Zealand or Spain.

2:29pm The Senate’s roll call vote is now available. There’s no party summary, but just five of the 36 Nays came from Dems. So Dems (including three indies who usually caucus with them) voted in favour by 46-5, while Reps were opposed by 31-17. One Rep missed the vote. So 90% of Senate Dems but just 35% of Senate Reps were in favour of this debt limit deal. That’s much worse for McCarthy than the House vote.

2:11pm The bill has passed the Senate by a 63-36 margin, and now heads to Biden’s desk for his signature. And that’s the end of the 2023 debt limit crisis.

11:42am Friday It looks as if the US Senate could vote for final passage of the debt limit bill about 2pm AEST today (midnight US eastern). Senate leaders have told their colleagues there’s no time for the Senate’s usual delays.

3:57pm There was some drama, with 52 Dems voting for the rule that set the parameters for the debate on the debt limit bill. It’s very unusual for the minority party to give the majority any support on rule votes, but they had to or the rule would have failed owing to 29 Rep defections. The rule passed by 241-187, and there’s speculation a deal was cut between McCarthy and Dem House leader Hakeem Jeffries.

12:15pm The full roll call is now available. Reps voted in favour by 149-71, a 68% “yes” vote, and Dems by 165-46, a 78% “yes” vote. The overall “yes” percentage was 73%. Four missed the vote: two Reps and two Dems.

11:33am Thursday In the end there was no late drama regarding McCarthy’s speakership in the House, and the debt limit compromise bill has been passed by the House by a 314 to 117 margin.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The US House of Representatives, where Republicans hold a 222-213 majority, is expected to vote on the debt limit compromise bill Thursday morning AEST. If this vote is held, I expect it will pass easily as the bill is only being criticized by the right, and Democratic support will make up for Republican defections.

There are two ways right-wing Republicans could derail this vote, both involving the ousting of Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. First, they could attempt to show that McCarthy no longer has the confidence of a majority of House Republicans. Second, they could initiate a “motion to vacate” to the full House. Democrats would then be in the odd position of needing to vote to save McCarthy. If McCarthy were ousted, the House could not consider other business until a new Speaker was elected.

Cooperating with the opposition on a no-confidence vote is much harder in a parliamentary system, as, if it succeeds, the most likely outcome is a new election, not a more right-wing leader. But neither chamber of the US Congress can be dissolved early.

If the bill passes the House, it must still be approved by the Senate, where Democrats hold a 51-49 majority. The Senate can only act quickly if unanimous consent is provided. If even one of the 100 senators is bloody-minded enough to deny unanimous consent to every motion, it will cause major delays. This US ABC article says it could take a week to pass the Senate, and names Republican Mike Lee as someone who could deny unanimous consent. If that occurred, the Senate would not pass the bill until after next Monday’s deadline.

From a tactical perspective, I believe the right’s anger with McCarthy is justified. Democrats made a major blunder by not lifting the debt limit while they still held control of the presidency, House and Senate prior to January 3 this year. As I related on the previous debt limit thread, national polls showed support for spending cuts, that there was little difference in who voters would blame for a default, and that Joe Biden’s ratings were falling.

This was a massive opportunity for McCarthy to force a much worse deal on Biden that would have distressed the left. Instead he let Democrats off the hook for their earlier blunder. In the end, McCarthy was more like a pussycat than a tiger.

If Biden had been forced to agree to an ugly deal, he could have faced a primary challenge to his nomination from the left. As it is, Biden is virtually assured of renomination as the Democratic 2024 presidential candidate.

NZ polls suggest right-wing coalition ahead with election in October

The New Zealand election will be held on October 14. The 120 MPs are elected by proportional representation with a 5% threshold that is waived if a party wins a single-member electorate.

Most polls now have a possible right-wing coalition of National and ACT ahead of Labour (governing) and the Greens, although the gap is close enough in some polls that the Māori party could be decisive (they are likely to win at least one of the seven electorates for those on the Māori roll).

The Kantar Public poll that was taken after the May 18 budget was particularly good for the right, giving National and ACT a 48-42 lead over Labour and the Greens. The last Kantar poll in March had given Labour and the Greens a 47-45 lead.

Spanish election called for July 23 after poor regional results for left

Twelve Spanish regional elections were held last Sunday. The conservative People’s Party (PP) won control of eight regions, the centre-left Socialists two and two are unclear. PP made a total of six gains in control since 2019, five from the Socialists and one from regionalists. There were large vote share increases for PP and the far-right Vox. After these elections, the incumbent Socialist national government announced a national election for July 23, about four months early. Current polling and these regional elections indicate that Spain is likely to be another major European country after Italy last year to fall to the right.

Possible US debt default minus one week

There’s still no debt limit deal with a week left until a possible default. Also covered: recent election results in Thailand, Greece and Northern Ireland councils.

11:09am The full text of the bill to raise the debt limit has now been released. This starts the 72-hour countdown to a vote on Thursday AEST. The House will return on Wednesday AEST. This deal raises the debt limit until after the 2024 presidential election, so if it passes there won’t be another hostage situation with the debt limit until after that election. That’s a win for Biden.

7:23am Monday As expected, Erdogan has won the Turkish presidential runoff election by a 52.1-47.9 margin. In the US, McCarthy is defending the debt ceiling deal against attacks from the right. The text of the bill has not yet been published.

12pm McCarthy said the text of the bill to raise the debt limit would be released tomorrow, with the House vote on Wednesday (Thursday AEST). But will far-right Republicans force a confidence vote in McCarthy? Under the rules he agreed to become Speaker in January, only one member needs to call for a confidence vote in the Speaker.

The US ABC news report says that one senator could potentially delay passage through the Senate for up to a week, so if it passes the House on May 31, it could still be delayed until past the June 5 deadline.

11:20am A tentative deal has now been reached between Biden and McCarthy. McCarthy will give a press conference soon.

10:53am Sunday Still no deal. It appears the biggest disagreement is over a Rep effort to expand work requirements for recipients of food stamps.

The Turkish presidential runoff is today, with polls closing at midnight AEST. Four late polls have Erdogan narrowly trailing, though others still have him ahead. But most polls were wrong in the first round, so Erdogan is still likely to win.

11:45am Saturday The US Treasury said last night that the earliest possible date of default was now June 5, not June 1. There are reports that a deal could be imminent, so the Dow was up 1.0% last night.

12:05pm Friday There’s no deal yet, but Biden and McCarthy both say there was progress in negotiations, so the Dow was only down 0.1% last night. The House has gone into recess, though members have been told to be ready to return if a deal is reached.

In polling news, Biden’s FiveThirtyEight ratings have dropped two points since Monday’s Conversation article to a net -12.4. Polls suggest roughly equal blame if a default occurs between Republicans and Biden. This Political Wire post says that in the 2011 and 2013 debt crises, far more people were blaming Republicans by this stage.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

I covered the US debt limit for The Conversation on Monday. Republicans are demanding spending cuts in return for raising the debt limit that Democrats strongly oppose. As a weak economy in 2024 is likely to hurt Joe Biden, Republicans have an incentive to not compromise. Democrats could have avoided this crisis had they raised the debt limit before the House of Representatives changeover on January 3 this year.

The article also included discussion of national Republican primary polls (Donald Trump is way ahead of Ron DeSantis) and general election Biden vs Trump polls (Trump leads narrowly).

In developments since Monday, the US Treasury reiterated that default could occur as early as June 1, and likely in early June, without congressional action. Negotiations this week between Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are still far from a deal. Stock markets are finally starting to notice the debt crisis, with the Dow Jones down for four straight days and down 0.8% last night.

In a national CNN poll released Wednesday AEST, 60% thought the debt limit should only be raised with spending cuts, 24% supported raising it no matter what and 15% didn’t want it raised at all. By 52-42, respondents in a national Marist poll thought spending cuts should be separated from raising the debt limit.

Left-wing Move Forward made big gains at Thai election

The Thai election was held on May 14. Of the 500 lower house seats, 400 were elected by First Past the Post (FPTP) and a further 100 by proportional representation (PR). The left-wing Move Forward won a total of 151 of the 500 seats (up 71 since 2019), beating the Pheu Thai party of former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, which won 141 seats (up five). The two royalist and military parties won a combined 65 seats (down 104).

If Move Forward and Pheu Thai form a coalition, they will have a combined 292 of the 500 seats, easily enough for a majority. However, the military appoints the 250 members of the upper house, and the PM is elected by a combined vote of both chambers. That means 376 votes out of 750 is needed to be PM.

Greek election: another disaster for polls and the left

At last Sunday’s Greek election, all 300 seats were elected by PR with a 3% threshold. The governing conservative New Democracy (ND) won 40.8% (up 0.9% since 2019), the left-wing Syriza 20.1% (down 11.5%), the centre-left PASOK 11.5% (up 3.4%), the Communists 7.2% (up 1.9%) and the far-right EL 4.5% (up 0.8%). Three parties just missed the 3% threshold.

At previous elections, there was a large seat bonus for the party winning the most votes, so seats won are not comparable. ND won 146 of the 300 seats, five short of the 151 needed for a majority. They could probably have formed a coalition with EL (16 seats), but have instead forced a new election on June 25 that will be held using a different form of the bonus seat system (as electoral changes made in the last parliament apply not at the next election, but at the following election). If using the bonus system, ND would easily win a majority.

Syriza performed about 10% worse than in pre-election polls, while ND did about 5% better. The left-wing MeRa25 had 4% in pre-election polls but missed the threshold. This poll failure followed the May 14 Turkish election, when most polls had the right-wing Erdoğan trailing in the first round (he led by 49.5-44.9 and is very likely to win Sunday’s runoff).

Sinn Féin wins most seats at Northern Ireland council elections

At the May 18 Northern Ireland council elections, held using PR with preferences, the left-wing Irish nationalist Sinn Féin won 144 of the 462 councillors (up 39 since 2019(, the conservative Democratic Unionist Party 122 (steady), the centrist Alliance 67 (up 14), the Ulster Unionists 54 (down 21) and the nationalist Social Democratic Labour Party 39 (down 20). This was the first time Sinn Féin was the largest party in NI local government, and the first time nationalist parties had more votes than unionist parties.

UK local elections minus one week

Labour’s poll lead is being reduced, though it’s still a large lead. Also covered: the coming US debt limit crisis and mixed polls in Turkey.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

Local government elections will be held in England on May 4 and Northern Ireland on May 18. Most of the English seats up were last contested in 2019. The BBC’s Projected National Share (PNS), which converts council elections into national vote shares, showed Labour and the Conservatives tied on 28% each with 19% for the Lib Dems in 2019.

Labour’s national poll lead has dropped a little since three weeks ago, but they still have about a 15-point lead over the Conservatives. The Conservatives are probably gaining owing to lower inflation and greater distance since Liz Truss’ disastrous premiership, but Labour’s ads attacking PM Rishi Sunak for being soft on paedophiles have probably not helped.

The best statistic for the local elections is not the total councillors or councils won or lost, but the BBC’s PNS. In 2022, Labour won the PNS by 35-30 over the Conservatives after losing by 36-29 in 2021. A huge win for Labour could put Sunak under pressure, but if Labour flops, the pressure would be on their leader Keir Starmer, as he approved the Sunak attack ads.  The next UK general election is not due until late 2024.

US House passes debt limit increase with spending cuts

I covered the US debt limit in February. Early this morning AEST, Republicans passed a bill through the House of Representatives by a 217-215 margin that raises the debt limit in return for big spending cuts that Democrats strongly oppose. In the earlier article, I said that the US Treasury has been taking extraordinary measures since January to avert default, but those measures could fail by early June without congressional action.

Democrats could have raised the debt limit while they still held control of the presidency, House and Senate before January 2023. Instead, they’ve allowed Republicans to take the US economy hostage. Republicans have an incentive to cause a recession before the 2024 elections.

FiveThirtyEight has started a poll aggregate of the national Republican primary, which will start early next year, although there’s no national primary “date”, with some states voting earlier than others. Former president Donald Trump has 51.1%, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis 24.3% and nobody else has more than 5%. Trump’s lead over DeSantis has been widening over the last two months.

RealClearPolitics poll averages have Trump leading incumbent Joe Biden by 1.3 points in a general election match-up, little different from a DeSantis lead of 1.9 points against Biden. These averages of very early polls may not be correct, but if Trump was unelectable, Biden would have a large lead. The US general election is in November 2024, by which time Biden will be almost 82 and Trump 78. Biden needs a good economy in 2024 to defeat Trump, which congressional Republicans are unlikely to provide.

Turkish elections: May 14

Turkey will hold presidential and parliamentary elections+ on May 14, with a presidential runoff on May 28 if nobody wins a first round majority. In the parliamentary elections, seats are allocated by proportional representation with a 7% threshold. Parties can join alliances and avoid this threshold provided the alliance gets over 7%.

In some of the latest polls, the social democratic Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu leads the right-wing incumbent Recep Tayyip Erdoğan for president by 4-9 points, but is short of the 50% needed to win outright in the first round. Other polls are very close, with some small leads for Erdoğan. There is one pol showing a large lead for Erdoğan, but that’s from a pollster affiliated with Erdoğan’s AKP.

Other recent elections: Finland, Estonia and Nigeria

At the April 2 Finnish election, the centre-left SDP was defeated after one term. Although its vote share rose slightly, it finished just behind two right-wing parties, while former SDP allies all lost seats and votes A new government has not been formed yet, but it will be conservative.

At the March 5 Estonian election, the liberal Reform was re-elected with an increased vote share as the far-right EKRE went backwards.

At the February 25 Nigerian presidential election, the centrist APC’s candidate won 36.6%, defeating the conservative PDP on 29.1% and Labour on 25.4%. Turnout was just 26.7%.

UK local elections minus four weeks

Labour likely to win big at the local elections. Also covered: Trump’s improving chances to win the US Republican nomination, and upcoming New Zealand and Turkish elections.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

Local government elections will be held in England on May 4 and Northern Ireland on May 18. Most of the English seats up were last contested in 2019, at which Labour and the Conservatives tied on 28% each with 19% for the Lib Dems. Labour’s national poll lead is down a little since February, but they still have about a 17-point lead over the Conservatives.

If Labour wins these council elections by the crushing margin polls currently give them, there would be a huge number of Conservative losses, and PM Rishi Sunak would be under pressure, with Boris Johnson a chance at a comeback. The next UK general election is not due until late 2024.

The Scottish National Party’s members elected Nicola Sturgeon’s successor, with the result announced on March 27. Humza Yousaf, who was viewed as the continuity candidate, defeated the socially conservative Kate Forbes by a 52.1-47.9 margin after preferences.

Trump polling strongly for the Republican nomination

Most of this section is based on last Saturday article for The Conversation. Former US president Donald Trump was indicted on March 30 over hush money payments made to a porn star before the 2016 election.

Republican primaries to select their nominee to contest the November 2024 general election start in early 2024. There is disagreement over the size of Trump’s lead, with recent polls rated B+ or better by FiveThirtyEight giving Trump between a five-point and a 30-point lead over Florida Governor Ron DeSantis when other candidates are included. This polling was taken before the indictment, and Trump has surged further ahead since the indictment. No other potential Republican candidate polls higher than mid-single digits.

While the polls disagree on the current size of Trump’s lead, they agree there’s been a recent swing to Trump. A Fox News poll had Trump by 15 points in February, and it recently gave him a 30-point lead. A Quinnipiac poll gave Trump an eight-point lead in February; in late March he led by 14.

If Trump is the Republican nominee, he has a good chance of defeating Biden. Biden’s disapproval rating has been higher than 50% in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate since October 2021. He will be almost 82 by the November 2024 election, while Trump will be 78.

On February 21, Democrats held a federal House seat in Virginia at a by-election by a 74.4-25.6 margin, up from 63.8-36.2 at the 2022 midterm elections. On Tuesday (Wednesday AEST), the left-wing Wisconsin Supreme Court judge candidate defeated the right-wing candidate by a 55.5-44.5 margin. The left now has a 4-3 majority on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, after long dominance by the right.

These results are encouraging for Democrats, but turnout will be much higher in a presidential election, and Trump is attempting to distance himself from hardline anti-abortionists.

Turkish elections: May 14

Turkey will hold presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14, with a presidential runoff on May 28 if nobody wins a first round majority. The right-wing Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been PM or president since 2003, and his main opponent will be the social democratic Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. Some polls show a large lead for Kılıçdaroğlu, but others have it much closer.

In the parliamentary elections, seats are allocated by proportional representation with a 7% threshold, down from 10% previously. Parties can join alliances and avoid this threshold provided the alliance gets over 7%. The main right-wing parties are Erdoğan’s AKP and the MHP. Erdoğan has formed the People’s Alliance, while his major opponents are either in the Nation Alliance or the Labour and Freedom Alliance.

NZ Labour and Greens were just behind National and ACT in early March

The New Zealand election will be held in October using proportional representation with a 5% threshold that is waived if a party wins a single-member seat. There were three polls taken in early March, with all three giving Labour a lead over National. However, the right-wing ACT has been doing better than the Greens, so the overall right vote is still ahead of the overall left. If the election result is this close, the Maori party would be the key.

There’s a hint that support for Labour and the Greens has peaked since Chris Hipkins replaced Jacinda Ardern as PM. The March Morgan poll gave the right a 45-43.5 lead, after a 45.5-45.5 tie in February.

US debt limit, UK local and NZ elections

Democrats’ failure to pass a debt limit increase before Congress changed could bite them. Labour way ahead in the UK and gains some ground in NZ after Jacinda Ardern’s resignation.

Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is a paid election analyst for The Conversation. His work for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.

The US debt limit is a legislative limit on the total amount of debt the US government can incur. As the US keeps running deficits, the debt keeps rising. Congress could deal with this issue permanently by either removing the debt limit, or increasing it to an arbitrarily high number. But instead Congress has only raised the debt limit enough to give about one year’s grace before it needs to be raised again. The last time the debt limit was raised was in December 2021.

The US already hit the debit limit on January 19, but the Treasury is taking extraordinary measures to delay a default; these measures are expected to last until June. While the US has never defaulted, there have been previous debt limit crises in 2011 and 2013.

The key reason for the 2011 and 2013 crises was divided government; Democrat Barack Obama was president, but Republicans held the House of Representatives. This situation applies now, with President Joe Biden, but Republicans holding the House. Republicans have attempted to use the debt limit to demand spending cuts.

Republicans only hold a 222-212 House majority, and it took 15 rounds of voting for Republican Kevin McCarthy to be elected House Speaker in early January. But right-wing Republicans extracted concessions from McCarthy, and the Speaker decides what comes to the floor. To keep the right happy, McCarthy is likely to deny a vote on any debt ceiling increase that does not include major spending cuts, and such cuts would be unacceptable to Democrats.

Democrats had unified control of the presidency, House and Senate until January 3 when the new House commenced. But they made no serious attempt to raise the debt limit, and avert a crisis until after the 2024 presidential election. If there is a default, the failure to raise the debt limit will come back to bite Democrats, the US generally and the world.

It currently appears unlikely that Biden will face a serious primary challenge for the Democratic nomination. Biden will be almost 82 by the November 2024 presidential election, and has had a disapproval rating over 50% in the FiveThirtyEight aggregate since October 2021.

UK Labour retains huge poll lead with local elections in May

Over 100 days since Rishi Sunak became British PM, Labour has about a 20-point lead over the Conservatives, with Labour in the high 40s, the Conservatives in the mid to high 20s, the Liberal Democrats at 7-10%, the Greens at 4-6% and the far-right Reform at 3-8%. On February 9, Labour easily retained West Lancashire at a by-election by 62.3% to 25.4% over the Conservatives (52.1-36.3 at the 2019 general election).

Local government elections will be held in England on May 4 and Northern Ireland on May 18. Most of the English seats up were last contested in 2019, at which Labour and the Conservatives tied on 28% each with 19% for the Lib Dems. If Labour wins these council elections by the crushing margin polls currently give them, there would be a huge number of Conservative losses, and Sunak would be under pressure, with the Conservatives perhaps moving back to former PM Boris Johnson. The next UK general election is not due until late 2024.

Nicola Sturgeon resigned as leader of the Scottish National Party on Wednesday. A weaker SNP would make it easier for Labour to win seats in Scotland, giving them a better chance to win an overall Commons majority if their current lead shrinks to single digits.

NZ Labour improves, but National + ACT still ahead

The New Zealand election is in October, with proportional representation used with a 5% threshold unless a party wins a single-member seat. Chris Hipkins replaced Jacinda Ardern as Labour leader and PM on January 22. Polls taken since this change have shown Labour narrowly ahead of National or tied, but the right-wing ACT is ahead of the Greens. So the combined vote for National and ACT is still ahead of that for Labour and Greens.

Recent election results

In the January 27-29 Czech presidential runoff, the pro-Western Pavel defeated the populist Babis by a 58.3-41.7 margin. At the February 12 Cypriot presidential runoff, the centre-left and nationalist candidate defeated the far-left candidate by a 52.0-48.0 margin after the conservative candidate was eliminated in the first round.