Indigenous Voice referendum minus two days

Mixed messages on voting intention among the younger cohort, and the first data in some time on how the Indigenous community plans to vote.

Roy Morgan has an Indigenous Voice poll of 905 respondents conducted last Monday to Sunday showing a relatively modest lead for no of 50-45. The accompanying release relates that we will shortly see “full results of surveying over the last two weeks, including detailed state-by-state, gender, age and party support breakdowns”.

There’s a fair bit of this sort of thing around at the moment, notably a Resolve Strategic document running to 100 pages covering every imaginable detail of this week’s 4728 sample poll, barring a few redacted details that are being held back to provide material for Nine Newspapers reports. The difference between Resolve Strategic’s 56-44 to no and Newspoll’s 58-34 comes largely down to the 18-to-34 cohort, which is difficult to poll and accordingly tends to get upweighted. Resolve’s has it breaking 62-38 in favour of yes, while the Newspoll has it at 49% no, 46% yes and the rest uncommitted.

The main story from the poll is that it’s the first one to provide any indication of Indigenous support since early in the year, after going to particular effort to secure a sub-sample of 420 (the report stresses that this “will not adequately cover remote communities”). The result is a split of 59-41 in favour of yes, a good deal narrower than much-disputed figures of 80-20 from earlier in the year. Kevin Bonham knows something I don’t in relating that “there is another one of these coming from another pollster that is mid-high 60s but smaller sample”.

There is also some further detail in The Economist in the other day’s poll from British outfit Focaldata, emphasising an age gap that looks more like Resolve’s than Newspoll’s. The accompanying multi-level regression with post-stratification exercise that produced demographically related estimates for each House of Representatives seat was discussed the other day on Twitter by pollsters Kos Samaras and Shaun Ratliff, the former saying it “missed demographic nuances, including education levels and ethnic make-up of regional seats” (more recently arrived groups being stronger for yes), the latter saying at least double the 4000 sample would be needed for duly robust results. UPDATE: More from Focaldata here.

UPDATE (13/10): There is now also a result from YouGov that has no up three points from its poll last week to 56%, with yes steady at 38%. The poll was conducted Friday to Tuesday from a sample of 1519. Roy Morgan has also expanded on the poll reported above as being conducted Monday to Sunday from a sample of 905, with a field work period now extending to today (Thursday) and a sample up to 1419. It has no leading 51% to 44%, breaking down to 49% to 46% in New South Wales, 64% to 30% in Queensland, 54% to 44% in Western Australia, 51% to 39% in South Australia and 52% to 47% in Tasmania, with yes leading 54% to 42% in Victoria (with due regard to small sub-samples here, particularly in the smaller states).

Resolve Strategic: Labor 37, Coalition 31, Greens 12 (open thread)

A Resolve Strategic poll off an expanded sample to accommodate detailed Indigenous Voice results does nothing to change its status as the strongest poll series for Labor.

Nine Newspapers have published the latest federal voting intention numbers from Resolve Strategic, which offer no indication that declining support for the Indigenous Voice has damaged the Labor government. Labor is credited with 37% of the primary vote, up a point on last month, with the Coalition down three to 31%. The Greens are steady on 12% and One Nation are up two to 7%. The pollster does not provide two-party results, but based on previous election preference flows, this comes out at around 57-43. Anthony Albanese’s combined very good and good rating is up four to 44%, and his combined very poor and poor rating is down four to 43%. Peter Dutton is respectively down five to 30% and up two to 45%. Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is 47-25, out from 43-28.

The voting intention numbers are from the same juiced-up sample of 4728 and extended field work period of September 22 to October 4 that produced yesterday’s Indigenous Voice result of 56-44 in favour of no, which reflected the voting intention in being more favourable to the government than the tenor of polling elsewhere. I might have hoped this would have meant more comprehensive state breakdowns than usual, but there is no sign of that to this point, with only the usual results for the three largest states provided on the Resolve Monitor display.

The sample for the leaders’ ratings was only 1604, which presumably relates to the 3116 sample size for separately published follow-up results today on the Indigenous Voice – evidently respondents were asked one set of questions or the other. Among many other things, the Indigenous Voice results offer the finding that 38% of respondents considered that colonisation had had a positive impact on Indigenous people compared with only 23% for negative and 41% for mixed or unsure.

The usual practice for Resolve Strategic is to follow up its national poll later in the week with state results for New South Wales or Victoria, alternating between the two with samples that combine results from two of the monthly polls. This month was due to be the turn of Victoria, but given the extended sample and the complication of the change in Premier from one polling period to the next, I’m not sure where things stand on this particular occasion.

Indigenous Voice: Resolve Strategic, Newspoll, Focaldata

Three new polls find no well ahead, including one offering projections at electorate level.

As the campaign enters its final week, three new poll results of note:

• Nine Newspapers have a large sample poll from Resolve Strategic finding 49% for no and 38% for yes, respectively steady and up three since last month. Thirty-seven per cent were definite for no, while 25% were definite for yes. Excluding the undecided, the result was 56-44 for no, in from 57-43 last time. Broken down by state, no leads 52.3-47.7 in New South Wales, 54.2-45.8 in Victoria, 64.2-35.8 in Queensland, 61.2-38.8 in Western Australia and 55.5-44.5 in South Australia, with the small sample from Tasmania producing a 56.1-43.9 in favour of yes. The poll was conducted September 22 to October 4 from a sample of 4728.

Newspoll in The Australian found support for yes continuing to deteriorate, with no up two since the last poll three weeks ago to 58% and yes down two to 34%.

• British pollster Focaldata has conducted a poll showing no leading 61-39, and while details of how it was conducted are currently scarce, it has yielded results at seat level using multi-level regression with post-stratification, similar to an exercise conducted by YouGov before the last federal election (which came in a bit high for Labor and undersold the teals). It has yes leading in 22 seats out of 151, which are overwhelmingly inner-city seats where the Greens are strong, plus all three seats in the ACT. The only teal seat with yes ahead is North Sydney, although Kooyong and Wentworth are lineball.

Indigenous Voice polling round-up

With less than a fortnight to go, a slight narrowing in the no lead from Essential Research offers the closest thing to good news for the yes campaign.

As we enter day three of the two-week early voting period for the October 14 Indigenous Voice referendum, the latest poll findings are as follows:

• This fortnight’s Essential Research poll contains an Indigenous Voice referendum result that is unusual in not finding yes in decline — no leads 49-43, which is in from 51-41 a fortnight ago. No includes 42% hard no and 8% soft no, while yes includes 30% hard and 13% soft. A question on whether respondents felt well informed about the referendum found effectively no change over the past month, with yes steady on 49% and no up one to 29%. Forty-nine per cent expected the proposal would fail, compared with 26% who expected it would pass.

• A RedBridge Group poll of 1500 respondents conducted from September 13 to 21 had no leading 62-38. Breakdowns for the three biggest states had no leading 58-42 in New South Wales, 59-41 in Victoria and 68-32 in Queensland.

• A Roy Morgan poll of 1511 respondents conducted from September 18 to 24 had no leading 44-39. Based on small samples, no led 42-40 in New South Wales, 49-31 in Queensland, 46-30 in Western Australia, 48-36 in South Australia, while yes led 46-42 in Victoria. The negligible sample of Tasmanian respondents broke 56-43 to yes.

• With all the latest numbers added, the poll tracker being conducted by Professor Simon Jackman for the ABC currently has no leading 58-42. Jackman’s highly sophisticated methods are explained in detail here.

UPDATE: And now a poll from YouGov, which is no longer involved with Newspoll but from which I am told we can expect a fair bit of independently conducted polling in future, a finding that no leads 53-38. It comes, furthermore, with voting intention results showing Labor leading 53-47 on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Labor 33%, Coalition 35% and Greens 13%. Anthony Albanese recorded a net approval rating of minus 3%, Peter Dutton recorded minus 17%, and Albanese led as preferred prime minister by 50-33. The poll was conducted last Monday to Friday from a sample of 1563.

Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor (open thread)

Strong voting intention numbers for Labor and sagging personal results for Peter Dutton, but still no bottom in sight for the Indigenous Voice.

The latest Newspoll courtesy of The Australian maintains the general pattern of late in finding Labor maintaining strong leads on voting intention while Indigeous Voice support continues to collapse. The two-party result is 54-46 in favour of Labor, out from 53-47 last time, from primary votes of Labor 36% (up one), Coalition 36% (down one), Greens 11% (down two) and One Nation 6% (down one).

The leadership ratings are highlighted by a slump for Peter Dutton, who is down six on approval to 32% and up three on disapproval to 52%, while Anthony Albanese is up one to 47% and down three to 44%. Preferred prime minister is nonetheless little changed, with Albanese’s lead out from 50-31 to 50-30.

The good news for the government ends on the question of the Indigenous Voice, on which yes is down two to 36% and no is up three to 56%. Pyxis Polling’s promptly published methodology statement tells us the poll was conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1239.

UPDATE (Freshwater Strategy): Less happy news for Labor on the voting intention front a Freshwater Strategy poll in the Financial Review, the third federal poll from this outfit this term. The previous poll in May gave Labor a lead of 52-48 when the general trend was around 55-45, and this one has it at 51-49, from primary votes of Labor 33% (down one), Coalition 37% (steady) and Greens 13% (up one). Anthony Albanese has net negative personal ratings with 38% favourable (down four) and 41% unfavourable (up four), while Peter Dutton is at 30% (steady) and 40% (down two). Albanese’s lead as preferred prime minister is in from 51-33 to 46-37. A question on the Indigenous Voice finds yes on 33% and no on 50%. The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday from a sample of 1003.

Essential Research 2PP+: Labor 49, Coalition 45 (open thread)

Unsurprising results on federal voting intention and the Indigenous Voice from Essential Research, while RedBridge finds the Coalition making no headway in Victoria.

The latest fortnightly Essential Research poll finds both major parties unchanged on the primary vote, Labor at 31% and the Coalition at 32%, with the Greens down two to 13%, One Nation up one to 8% and 6% undecided. The pollster’s 2PP+ measure has Labor down two to 49% and the Coalition up two to 45% – the narrowest result this term – with undecided likewise at 6%. A result on the Indigenous Voice maintains the remorseless trend, with no up three to 51% (hard no up one to 42%, soft no up one to 8%) and and yes down one to 41% (hard yes down two to 28%, soft yes steady at 12%).

Regarding the government’s latest package of workplace laws, the poll finds 79% are in favour of criminalising wage theft, with only 6% opposed; 66% support “closing loopholes so that employers can’t use labour hire workers to undercut full time workers”, with 12% opposed; and 54% support “ensure that gig workers who work through digital platforms have minimum rights and entitlements”, with 15% opposed. Forty-nine per cent favoured “businesses maximising profits for shareholders” as the cause of rising living costs over 32% for the alternative cause of wage and salary increases for workers, and 42% felt workplace power tilted too much in favour of employers compared with 12% for workers. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Sunday from a sample of 1135.

Also doing the rounds is a Victorian state poll from RedBridge Group that shows primary vote shares much as they were at the November election, with Labor on 37%, the Coalition on 34% and the Greens on 13% (36.7%, 34.5% and 11.5% respectively at the election). However, Labor is credited with a wider two-party preferred lead of 56.5-43.5, compared with 55.0-45.0 at the election. The poll was conducted August 31 to September 14 from a substantial sample of 3001, allowing for credible breakdowns by gender, age, region, education, income and home ownership in the pollster’s report.

Weekend miscellany: Morgan poll, WA Voice poll, Queensland LNP Senate latest (open thread)

Roy Morgan finds Labor’s lead narrowing fractionally; a formerly strong poll series for the Indigenous Voice in WA goes south; and Gerard Rennick finds no joy in a bid to overturn his Senate preselection defeat.

Essential Research’s fortnightly poll should be along in the small hours of Tuesday – anything else that comes along on the poll front this week (not counting the regular weekly Roy Morgan) will be news to me when it happens. Here’s what I have for the time being:

• Roy Morgan’s weekly result has Labor’s two-party lead in from 53-47 to 52.5-47.5, from primary votes of Labor 32% (down one-and-a-half), Coalition 37% (down half) and Greens 13.5% (up half). Since discovering Morgan’s results archive, I’ve been including its results in the BludgerTrack poll data page, but not in the poll aggregate itself.

The West Australian had an Indigenous Voice poll from Painted Dog Research on Wednesday showing no leading in the state 61-39, after yes led 58-42 in June. The poll was conducted at some point earlier this month from a sample of 1285.

• The Australian reports Queensland Senator Gerard Rennick has sought legal advice after a Liberal National Party committee knocked back his challenge to his 131-128 preselection defeat in July at the hands of party treasurer Stuart Fraser. While it was acknowledged that Rennick backer Peter Dutton should have been allowed to cast a proxy vote, as Fraser supporters David Littleproud and Adrian Schrinner had been, and that two people allowed to vote were ineligible, it was determined that the anomalies would not have affected the result, and that Rennick missed his opportunity to raise objections at the meeting. Of the ineligible voters, The Australian reports that “one apparently voted for Rennick and the other says they didn’t vote in the deciding round”.

• The full results from a RedBridge Group poll showing state Labor trailing 55-45 in Queensland, which was covered here last week, can be viewed here.

• Occasional Poll Bludger contributor Adrian Beaumont has a piece on the October 14 election in New Zealand for The Conversation, where all indications are that Labour is facing defeat after two terms in government.

Resolve Strategic: Labor 36, Coalition 34, Greens 12 (open thread)

Labor still well ahead on voting intention, but Resolve Strategic records prime ministerial approval in net negative territory and an ongoing decline in support for an Indigenous Voice.

Courtesy of the Age/Herald, the latest monthly federal voting intention numbers from Resolve Strategic have with Labor down a point to 36%, the Coalition up one to 34%, the Greens up one to 12% and One Nation steady on 5%. As ever, no two-party preferred result is provided, but I make it to be 55-45 to Labor based on 2022 election preferences compared with about 55.5-44.5 last time.

As with last week’s Newspoll, the poll gives Anthony Albanese his first net negative personal rating as prime minister, with approval down four to 40% and disapproval up five to 47%. Peter Dutton is up four to 35% and down one to 44%, with Albanese retaining a 43-28 lead as preferred prime minister, in from 46-25.

The worst news for the government comes once again from the Indigenous Voice, with a forced response question now putting no ahead 57-43, out from 54-46 a month ago. A question allowing for an uncommitted response has no leading 49% to 35%. Combining this month’s results with last month’s to get reasonable sub-samples, no leads 56-44 in New South Wales, 51-49 in Victoria, 61-39 in Queensland and Western Australia and 59-41 in South Australia, with yes leading only in Tasmania by 56-44 off a particularly small sample.

The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1604.