Ipsos provided the one new poll for the week in its monthly outing for the Fairfax papers, and it raised a few eyebrows with its weak primary vote for Labor and extraordinarily strong result for the Greens, the latter exacerbating a long established peculiarity of this pollster. The poll’s addition to the BludgerTrack aggregate takes a certain amount of edge off the recent blowout to Labor, while still finding them on course for a victory of historic dimensions. The BludgerTrack seat projection has Labor down three on last week’s result, with Victoria, Queensland and Western Australia each moving one seat in the Coalition’s favour. The methodological caveats about BludgerTrack from last week’s post continue to apply, as does the fact that I won’t be updating the leadership ratings until the model has a solid enough base of Morrison-era data to work from. Other than that, full results from the link below.
BludgerTrack: 54.9-45.1 to Labor
Labor remains deep in landslide territory on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, despite the moderating impact of this week’s Ipsos poll.
Trying to keep some kind of perspective on Newspoll, I would guess that 53-47 is somewhere near the mark. However, some in the CPG such as Michelle Grattan have been working hard to find a speck of gold for Morrison in what is otherwise a really bleak outlook for him. I expect rusted-on LNP supporters will be with them whatever, just as Irish Catholics still maintain their allegiance to the Catholic Church even though they have serious misgivings about the church locally. If it were Labor in the same situation as the LNP is at the moment, it is likely Labor would still rake up 47% support. I would be happy for 52-48 for Labor at the next election and a majority of somewhere near 5 on the floor of the HR with the Speaker as one more. Control of the Senate would be just that much more satisfactory.
Here is what I have. Apologies if I missed anyone. I will check back later tonight, but I’m going to leave now for a bit…
=====================
Newspoll-Poll 2018-09-23
Mean: ALP 54.4 to 45.6 LNP
Median: ALP 54 to 46 LNP
No. of Respondents: 57
———————-
ALP / LNP
53 / 47 A different Michael
54.5 / 45.5 a r
53 / 47 Akubra
54 / 46 Al Pal
54 / 46 Andrew_Earlwood
56 / 44 Asha Leu
51 / 49 ausdavo
54 / 46 BK
47 / 53 Boerwar
56 / 44 briefly
54 / 46 C@tmomma
54 / 46 Confessions
54 / 46 Cud Chewer
54 / 46 d-money
99 / 1 Dan Gulberry
55 / 45 Don
53 / 47 Evan
53 / 47 Frednk
56 / 44 Fulvio Sammut
61 / 39 Gecko
55 / 45 Golly
53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
52 / 48 Holden Hillbilly
53 / 47 imacca
54 / 46 jeffemu
53 / 47 jenauthor
52 / 48 jph
52 / 48 Kevjohnno
54 / 46 Late Riser
51 / 49 Lynchpin
54 / 46 Mari
52 / 48 Matt
55 / 45 Matt31
53 / 47 meher baba
55 / 45 Michael
52 / 48 Mundo
56 / 44 nath
53 / 47 poroti
57 / 43 Puffytmd
55 / 45 Question
54 / 46 Robert Ball
51 / 49 Sceptic
52 / 48 Simon² Katich®
50 / 50 Sprocket_
54 / 46 Socrates
55 / 45 Sohar
53 / 47 sonar
55 / 45 steve davis
53 / 47 Steve777
52 / 48 Taylormade
53 / 47 Tricot
53 / 47 The Silver Bodgie
54 / 46 Upnorth
58 / 42 Warrigal
53 / 47 Whisper
53 / 47 Work To Rule
52 / 48 Zoidlord
“A few weeks ago I was listening to ABC radio in the car when they had an interview with Richard Fidler and a historian who was saying much the same sort of thing about how most of today’s “jobs” are meaningless, pointless exercises. The whole conversation was about a UBI, and the nature of poverty.”
Hello Dan – I caught the same broadcast, which got me to thinking about the idea.
Of course this Government seems to be creating a whole raft of bullshit jobs channeling money to mates to torment the unemployed. Rutger Bregman made the point that most of the unemployed aren’t in that state because they are lazy or feckless but because of decisions made hundreds of miles away in head offices because a machine or someone in a low wage Country could do their job cheaper.
Thanks Late Riser – your a top scrutineer.
Diogenes @ #2539 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 8:21 pm
I’d say so, Dio. Isn’t she the Number 1 ticket holder for the Weagles?
sprocket_ @ #2540 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 8:22 pm
Yeah, he loves AFL too much. His brother, Frank, got a guernsey for Labor in State parliament though.
Yes, and the first woman to be awarded the honour in the club’s history.
Kristina Kenneally has fact checked Scummo’s boast that the gender pay gap has decreased under the Coalition. It’s because male wages have collapsed!
“C@t
The CEO and Chair of the AFL usually host the PM.
I wonder if JBish will get a guernsey.”
Bill Shorten is a Collingwood supporter but doesn’t make a big thing about it, unlike many other politicians. Bracks was another – he used to sit in the outer with the other supporters and shunned the corporates and other freeloaders.
Steve777 @ #2553 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 6:55 pm
Indeed. What was interesting was the results from the Canadian experiment which showed that the “cost” of it was paid for by reductions in other areas such as healthcare and crime.
What was also fascinating was the fact that the idea of a basic income attracted support from both the Left and the Right. Arch neo-liberal Milton Friedman was a big fan, as was Richard Nixon.
Even within ‘meaningful’ jobs, there is a lot of meaningless busywork.
My line of work is within healthcare, and there is oodles of paperwork, largely done to cover our behinds if we’re ever sued. I’m sure most of it is never read.
I remember when Paul Keating as PM gave Collingwood the right to host the post-budget dinner in Melbourne. Unfortunately Collingwood betrayed Keating somewhat. In 1995 they invited Howard to a Collingwood match and tried to get an undertaking that under Howard the post-budget dinner would continue to be Collingwood’s nice little earner. Eddie recently apologized to Keating for that. It’s important to recognize and remember your mistakes. To hold those responsible accountable. So that mistakes are less likely to happen again. Collingwood won’t be so ungracious again.
hmmm..
twitter flooding with 2pp stable
ALP primary down, LNP primary up
Late Riser:
My guess is 52 making it some 70 adverse, consecutive Newspolls – slightly improved post coup based on Morrison’s gift of the gab, his RC re. aged-care, his rasing of the maximum penalty for food tampering.
Against my better judgement turned on Sky Kenny and Murray LNP up on primary but long way to go two party LNP a little better will go and have a shower now as feel dirty
Two-party not much different, apparently.
Great to see Lewis Jetta in a grand final again.
Just a beautiful kicking technique – all about the timing.
So it would be 56-44 if stable 2PP.
60 Minutes Australia
Verified account @60Mins
1m1 minute ago
The ferocious events and bullying of the last few weeks has revealed the thin ranks of women in the Coalition, and it’s about to get even worse. #60Mins
a historian who was saying much the same sort of thing about how most of today’s “jobs” are meaningless, pointless exercises
As a historian he would certainly have the experience to comment
I don’t think the Coalition primary could get much worse, so upwards movement was to be expected and ALP has apparently come back down to Earth.
Feels like the ALP on 55-54.
Whatever we think, it’s still disastrous.
Mari @ #2565 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 9:11 pm
So then LNP +1, ALP -1, and 2PP unchanged because the pollster has already exhausted their margins for rounding in their efforts to make the previous result look
goodless bad?I saw the Globe Pop-up production of Macbeth this afternoon. Very nice it was too
Was thinking of Macbeth as Morrison, with Turnbull as Duncan and Dutton as Banquo… 😀
Oakeshott Country says:
Sunday, September 23, 2018 at 9:14 pm
a historian who was saying much the same sort of thing about how most of today’s “jobs” are meaningless, pointless exercises
As a historian he would certainly have the experience to comment
_______________________________________________
A truer statement has never been made. History, bah! better to live in ignorance of the past that way everything is a perpetual surprise. No more people saying history repeats itself etc. Better yet, lets burn all history books, who needs em.
laocoon
were you in the groundlings? I have tickets next week for Merchant of Venice
@Mundo
“My prediction……52/48 ………Strayans really are that dumb.”
Hello Hanrahan!
Hey sprocket
No, I was up in stand. Few hours of standing a bit too much for my weary bones 😉
But looked like it was fun down there. Just a word of warning though: if MoV is anything like Macbeth, don’t stand too close to the stage in all of your finery!
I might actually try to see that as well too
Newspoll result speculators are reminded that the series gives the appearance of being a rolling average these days.
Kevin Bonham Retweeted
jeff venables
@jgven71
23m23 minutes ago
Newspoll lib primary up lab down but 2pp not much diff accord to sky
incremental bump for LNP
patricia Karevelas
GetUp is running an excellent campaign called A Future To Fight For. The flagship policy is a federally funded, community-administered Job Guarantee. Ed Miller, senior campaigner for GetUp, interviewed Professor Stephanie Kelton about the Job Guarantee (which is both a public sector job creation program and a macroeconomic stabiliser).
You can listen to the interview here:
https://futuretofightfor.org.au/podcast/
You can read about the buffer stock employment model for controlling inflation here:
Outline of the proposal:
http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/pn_2018_3.pdf
Detailed proposal:
http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/rpr_4_18.pdf
Well its not good looking good if there is little change in TPP for the Libs.It means Morrison not getting any traction with the voters.2 more bad Newspolls after this and the Libs are toast.
Strawberry bounce ?
Sceptic @ #2582 Sunday, September 23rd, 2018 – 9:28 pm
Because behaving like the Strawberry Blonde/Mango Mussolini appeals?
54-46 from ghost.
54-46 to ALP accord. to GhostWhoVotes
54/46
New thread.
You have to wonder what Morrison is going to do for attention now that the air has gone out of the Strawberry tyres. Put a piece of Lego up his nose? 🙂
the Smear is crowing for Scotty
54-46
Will also be interesting to see where the Morrison approval “uncommitteds” jump…as usual for a new PM, that was an elevated reading (which was the reason his first net approval was better than Turnbull’s)
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
3m3 minutes ago
#Newspoll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 46 (+2) ALP 54 (-2) #auspol
0 replies 6 retweets 0 likes
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
2m2 minutes ago
#Newspoll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 36 (+2) ALP 39 (-3) GRN 10 (0) ON 6 (0) #auspol
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
49s49 seconds ago
#Newspoll Morrison: Approve 44 (+3) Disapprove 39 (0) #auspol
0 replies 3 retweets 0 likes
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
15s16 seconds ago
#Newspoll Shorten: Approve 32 (-5) Disapprove 54 (+3) #auspol
0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
GhostWhoVotes
@GhostWhoVotes
29s30 seconds ago
#Newspoll Preferred PM: Morrison 45 (+3) Shorten 32 (-4) #auspol
So people are stupid 🙂
From Ghost
54/46