The Daily Telegraph reports a DemosAU/Premier National state poll of New South Wales has the inevitable One Nation gain since the last such poll in February at five points, pushing them to 27%. The Coalition are a distant third following a three-point drop to 20%, with Labor down two to 32% and the Greens down two to 13%. The poll was conducted last Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1038. The full release contains detailed breakdowns plus further questions, and should be up on the pollster’s site fairly soon.
There were also two state results from Resolve Strategic last week that I didn’t feel inspired to cover at the time, both combining results from two of the pollster’s monthly national surveys, which were conducted from May 13 to 16 and June 8 to 13:
• In Victoria, a slightly less bad result for Labor than those published last week by DemosAU and Freshwater Strategy, their primary vote down one to 26% with the Coalition down three to 26%, One Nation up three to 24% and the Greens up two to 12%. Jess Wilson’s lead over Jacinta Allan on preferred premier is unchanged at 39-20. No exact sample size is provided, but it would have been around 1000.
• In Queensland, the Liberal National Party was steady on 30%, with Labor down four to 24%, One Nation up seven to 24%, and the Greens down one to 10%. David Crisfaulli’s lead over Steven Miles as preferred premier was out from 42-26 to 44-20, and his net likeability rating is down three to plus 16, with Miles down six to minus 11. The sample for this poll was 868.
Can we please keep this thread for discussion of state politics. The open thread for general discussion is here.
What is going on here, this is some form of mass lunacy. Is it Barney Joyce adding the retail component that was missing? Pauline’s policies are downright terrible – they are mean and dumb, I wonder if she might propose bringing back slavery next, such is the yuckiness of her ideas. People seem to be projecting themselves into her ideas and moderating them.I read a story yesterday where an Indian fellow decided she wasn’t really anti immigrant and she’s just being misunderstood, oh brother!!!!
Well, that amounts to a comfortable second term for the ALP in NSW. This would mostly just amount to a changing of the opposition benches.
One Nation are now clearly converting federal voting intention into state voting intention. I had thought this might stay more a federal movement.
Princeplanet
He must be like those Latinos in US , who thought Trump would not harm Latinos. Stupid idiot, to put it mildly or he must be living in Mackay.
Has anybody ran that through a seat projection?
From intro : “The full release contains detailed breakdowns plus further questions, and should be up on the pollster’s site fairly soon.”
…..Full report here from the pollsters website, including Upper House results on page 4.
Link: https://demosau.com/news/one-nation-overtakes-coalition-to-move-into-second-place-in-nsw-new-poll/
Thks for updating BT too o/night – Fed O.N. now just shy of 30%. Unbelievable stuff.
David Brown says:
Tuesday, June 23, 2026 at 9:06 am
Has anybody ran that through a seat projection?
============
Seat projection for the Upper House is on page 5 of their report.
No seat projection for the lower house, but I’m guessing that with OPV – provided there is a strong preference flow amongst the left aligned parties and a spraying of the vote amongst the right aligned parties – then Minns is on track for an increase in seats and an outright majority.
I’ll wait to see what the psephs here make of it all.
Yes, “mass lunacy” has taken hold of a lot of voter’s minds.
It’s like a Saviour Mentality seen in followers of cults.
The concept of a “Saviour Mentality” aligns with descriptions of “abdication syndrome”, where followers project their own wishes onto a leader and interpret the leader’s actions or teachings as fulfilling those desires, even when the leader’s stated positions contradict those interpretations.
We see it with Trump’s followers, and now with Hanson’s followers. It can’t be defeated by rational arguments.
Our MSM is making it worse for their own purposes.
It’s described here in Psychology Today.
https://www.psychologytoday.com/au/blog/out-of-the-darkness/202305/why-some-people-hand-their-lives-over-to-cults
Is it really unbelievable, Nadia? I don’t think it is. Unfortunately, it’s almost been inevitable. The major parties for some reason just didn’t think what was happening everywhere else could happen in Australia. But many of the fundamentals driving this have been worse in Australia than elsewhere in the western world.
This SMH story suggests that the NSW government will look to do something about toll costs in Sydney.
https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/weekly-cap-on-tolls-for-sydney-motorists-to-be-lowered-in-state-budget-20260622-p60920.html
At an average of $80 per household per week (far more in NW suburbs) Sydney motorists face some of the world’s highest toll road costs. It is a cash cow successive governments have milked too far.
I have said before that Australia should move from its current combination of fuel taxes, tolls and fixed rego fees to a Norway/Sweden/NZ style Road User charge, with a cordon pricing model to replace tolls in Sydney. NSW is the state where this is needed most.
Ven : sadly he is living in the seat of Pakenham vic.
Socrates,
Minns plans to reduce the cap from $60 to $50 pw. This will cost the state a lot of money.
I’m not sure it will be easy for NSW government to make big changes to road tolls because they don’t own them.
https://www.transport.nsw.gov.au/operations/nsw-roads-network/privately-operated-motorways
Where do Newcastle and Wollongong sit in these survey numbers – Regional or Outer Metro?
Where Labor might come unstuck is that they run up huge votes in south west Sydney and poll poorly elsewhere or a big majority in the seat of Newcastle and but poorly in the rest of the Hunter.
@blackurnpseph
Im almost certain they would be regional.
You can make inferences from their federal MRP
https://demosau.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/DemosAU-MRP-Seat-Projections-FebMarch-2026-3.pdf
What’s the 2pp of these numbers? Seems like a solid ALP win with OPV.
I wonder if Pauline Hanson’s disastrous National Press Club appearance last week will start reducing some of these ON polling numbers.
I think a lot of disengaged voters like the “idea” of One Nation, but Pauline Hanson actually speaking at length and articulating (or poorly attempting to articulate) policies, is probably the biggest threat to themselves. While disengaged voters probably didn’t bother watching, she certainly provided enough damaging sound bites and ammunition for attacks.
Her comments around how early educators shouldn’t need any training would certainly frighten off any parent considering a vote for One Nation. Her attacks on workers’ protections only gave that GetUp stunt some real legitimacy. It may have seemed like a stunt that would only help her, if only moments before she wasn’t ranting that workers are lazy and should be able to be sacked easier.
Victoria is going to be the next big test. I can’t see One Nation getting close to their polling numbers in the actual election. Although, One Nation did outperform their polling in the Farrer byelection and the South Australian election, so that certainly can’t be ruled out.
However, I think what’s likely to occur is that One Nation will probably start declining a bit as there is more scrutiny, but still do well enough to be a legitimate disrupter. It may not translate into a lot of seats but could complicate a lot of counts. I’m guessing that while they take votes from both major parties, their presence will be more damaging to the Coalition than to Labor. They will make the Coalition’s path to majority more difficult, and while also taking a chunk from Labor’s primary vote, will probably help them protect some of their larger 2PP margins that may have otherwise been under threat if the swing was going straight from Labor to the Coalition.
At this point I’d still predict a hung parliament, but that Labor will have the most seats and the best chance at forming a minority government, despite a whopping primary vote swing (probably double digits).
My NSW calculations are out the window somewhat now that the Liberals are in the position of exhausting vs allocation. For ON it was quite simple. about 12% went to Labor, 62% would rather exhaust than preference anyone and the remaining 26% went to the LNP.
On the last election figures, if all you do is swap ON & LNP and leave, it ends up with a 56/44 2PP for Labor. But my thought is that LNP voters are going to be far more likely to preference than exhaust and my gut is that anyone who hasn’t already switched to ON is more likely to preference Labor than ON than an ON voter would preference Labor (which is 12%), and then how do you decide those percentages?
If I use the Independents preferencing of 25% Labor, 55% Exhaust, 20% LNP, and allocate that as what Liberal voters would preference to Labor/Exhaust/ON, then I get a 2PP of
Labor 58
ON 42.
With 20% of the vote exhausting without a preference.
If I take the Libertarian exhaustion (10% Labor, 54% Exhaust, 36% LNP) and apply that to the LNP deciding LAB vs ON that 2PP becomes 54.5 vs 45.5.
I also suspect that having to pick between Labor & ON will significantly decrease exhaustion. Only 60% of Greens preference Labor, while 33% let their vote exhaust.
All in all, a huge win for Chris Minns coming up.
Clearly something is at play in this current political climate if One Nation is polling almost as high figures in individual state polling as they are in federal polls.
I think it’s a mixture of broad nationalisation of statewide politics, and the continued globalisation of the internet which now as a collective have more people with right-wing populist views on it than with progressive views, which has been the case for at least the last 2-4 years.
There you go, GOW confirms it’s just fine to let my Green vote exhaust rather than go to Labor. Good to know, I really have no interest in supporting Minns
Agree with you Ghost at 6.03pm.
Looks like a fairly strong Minns win to me too.
Thanks for calculations.
H.B.G. – I think it’s more likely the O.N. vote will exhaust, and what doesn’t, will spray around everywhere per Ghost’s calculations. NSW is complicated because of the OPV system embedded in the state constitution, but on this occasion (or in 2027) I think it will work in Prem Minns favour.
On a basic, raw understanding of OPV, I understand that the party leading in the primaries is generally in the box seat.
I don’t get the “hate” directed at Minns by some NSW based posters here.
To me he seems OK.
What’s the issue with Minns?
“There you go, GOW confirms it’s just fine to let my Green vote exhaust rather than go to Labor. Good to know, I really have no interest in supporting Minns”
Pauline thanks you for your support. An exhausted vote is a vote for One Nation.
“What’s the issue with Minns”
In my limited experience it’s Greens supporters of Hamas who hate Minns the most, for cracking down as per the community desire to not have Victorian style scenes every weekend of rent a crowd whinging protestors shutting down the city and bashing up cops.
There’s also some minor whinging from the Labor left who think he needs to be more left, or because of factional internal disputes.
I’ve provided by reasons before Nadia, he’s hopeless
NSW DemosAU – Agree that NSW Labor should dominate on these figures, especially thanks to OPV. Though 29% ALP – 29% ONP in outer metropolitan seats could create some very interesting contests. The NSW Coalition would be facing a similar fate to the SA Liberals.
Victoria Resolve – 26% ALP, 26% L/NP, 24% ONP, 24% OTH is impossible to interpret without regional breakdowns, but suggests preferences will be key in many seats. If the pattern is similar to the recent DemosAU poll, with the Greens vote strong in inner Melbourne and the One Nation vote strong in the outer suburbs and regional areas, the Victorian Coalition should do the best on preferences whenever they finish in the top two given they should do very well off both Labor and One Nation preferences against the other. Greens preferences should protect Victorian Labor in the inner city, but Labor will be punished by preferences elsewhere whenever they finish in the top two. One Nation is unlikely to make the top two in many city seats and I suspect the flow of preferences from the Coalition to One Nation will not be as strong as the other way round.
Queensland Resolve – A weaker result for the Queensland LNP than the recent DemosAU poll, but they should still win comfortably on these figures.
Blackburnpseph:
Labor’s 2pp majority in Newcastle is reliant on the Greens and other little left-wing parties – they’re not running up the primary vote there. The Greens came second on primaries in the federal seat last year, and made the 2cp thanks to some rather leaky minor RW votes (Libs couldn’t make up a 3% gap to the Greens on 11% ON/Trump/FF vs 1.5% Socialist). Repeat that in a state election with OPV, and with One Nation gouging the Libs more than Labor, that’s a likely Labor/Green 2cp. Add in a possibly retiring MP (I remember some scandal about him on here) and it might even be interesting.
Greens cracked 20% in Cunningham too, so most of the same applies in Wollongong.
Dare to dream of the Greens breaking through in either Newcastle or Wollongong one day
A few additions since the last time I listed the failings of Chris Minns
From Echo
“Cate Faehrmann MLC says the NSW government has knocked any hope of gambling reform on the head in yesterday’s state budget, with tax concessions to clubs with poker machines totalling $1.252 billion, while revenue from taxes on poker machine losses have been revised upward by a whopping $638.2 million over the forward estimates.
Meanwhile tax revenue from gambling is forecast to be $4.087 billion in 2026-27.
‘This budget confirms that the Minns Labor Government has given up any pretense of wanting to reduce gambling harm,’ said Ms Faehrmann, the NSW Greens’ gambling harm reduction spokesperson.”
AND
“Former NSW Labor MP Ernest Wong and restaurateur Jonathan Yee face formal court proceedings for allegedly operating a straw donor scheme to conceal the true origins of donations to Chris Minns’s 2015 election campaign for the seat of Kogarah. Both men were charged following an extensive investigation by the NSW Electoral Commission.”
They also found that Minns had no knowledge of the source of the funds
Matter still to go through court so we’ll see where it all lands, innocent until proven guilty, but it should be an interesting trial. Just in time for the election or delayed afterwards?
And finally
Imitating Trump for his Radio mates, very unPremier like imo
Nadia – why Chris Minns is hated by so many left leaning voters on this forum?
I suspect it comes down to a few factors: 1. The advocacy for the Jewish community in Sydney after the Bondi tragedy, 2. The anti protest laws the Minns Government brought in over summer, 3. The perception that Minns spends more time on 2GB or talking to the Daily Telegraph instead of cosying up to the ABC or left wing media.
No doubt Ryan Park or Penny Sharpe would be an alternative Premier that the lefties on here would feel more comfortable with, despite the fact that Minns will likely win the next state election in March.
I think One Nation is wide open to an advertising blitz bollocking the impacts their policies would have on everyday people, but there’s a lot of responses here that miss the mark.
Lots of Australians are bitterly unhappy with the status quo. Minns is of the “we’re fine with the status quo, I’ll just tweak things here and there” persuasion of Labor. And that makes a lot of voters easy pickings for anyone who pretends to have answers and channels their rage at the status quo, even if their answers are appalling rubbish.
What was safe, careful politics in the 1990s is not safe, careful politics now – if you don’t want to leave yourself wide open to a far-right surge. We’ve already seen too many cases of centre-left parties in the last few years who wound up basically running on being the status quo option and getting beaten as a result.
The Greens really love telling Labor to keep doing things that have lost Labor elections before. Combine this with their constant “influencer” ad campaigns telling people not to vote Labor & their friends in the Australia Institute pushing voters to preference right-wing candidates to punish Labor.
It makes me think the Greens don’t actually want a left wing government, they want a right-wing Government that they can blame Labor for.
Someone who can strongly prefer Burnham over Starmer, and who recognises that Burnham’s approach is comparatively electoral gold in the UK but sees it here as “doing things that have lost Labor elections before” and reacts to the idea of someone more like Burnham over someone more like Starmer in Australian politics as a Greens idea is bloody baffling to me.
It’s like you can objectively see foreign politics for what it is, but as soon as it goes domestic the partisan blinders drown out everything else.
The Australian Greens are far more like Corbyn, who lost two elections, than anyone else significant in UK politics.
Anyone on the left would easily prefer Corbyn over Starmer over Boris/Truss/Farage, but only two people on that list won an General Election. It’s yet to be seen if Burnham is “electoral gold” in a wider sense (hopefully it is, 3 years down the track).
At least they haven’t done a Polanski yet who destroyed the UK Greens momentum by opening his mouth after the anti-Semitic attacks at Golders Green where he attacked the police for being a bit rough with a terrorist who was trying to kill them.
Looks like the main thread is leaking again. Where’s Newy Boy and Oakeshott?
Eyeballing the map from here, here’s the booths in federal Newcastle overlapping the state seat, with ALP-Grn votes. (Ignoring Fern Bay, the one booth in Paterson.) Bold for the two the Greens won.
Warabrook 477-197
Mayfield W 469-355
Mayfield 366-236
Mayfield S 626-458
Mayfield E 933-730
Tighes Hill 205-239
Islington 529-646
Carrington 853-620
Wickham 417-381
Stockton 989-396
Hamilton N 382-239
Hamilton 1032-890
Adamstown N 935-544
Beaumont Park 327-139
Newcastle City 772-713
Cooks Hill 589-394
Cooks Hill S 813-681
Hamilton S 1000-592
The Junction 1213-696
Merewether 459-264
Merewether S 801-422
Merewether Heights 762-474
All booths: 14,949-10,306 (25,255)
Labor 2cp (vs Green): 59.2%.
Newcastle and Mayfield prepolls had 66% and 67%, so that would push it towards Labor a bit. Still closer than Summer Hill (another seat the Greens could have a go at, with the demise of Jo Haylen).
Preferences in the federal seat went 63-37 to Labor. In Summer Hill in 2023 it was 24% Labor, 17% Green, 59% exhaust, so not a huge difference for non-exhausted prefs – in both cases, the Greens need to be in front of Labor on primary votes if they want to win.
Something else odd I noticed, looking at the pendulum: apart from the three seats they won, the Greens only made the 2cp in one other seat in 2023 – Summer Hill. Apart from Ballina, that’s three seats in inner Sydney with an ALP/Grn 2cp, compared to eight in inner Melbourne at the Vic election the year before. Why so few? Alex Greenwich is in the way in Sydney, but that can’t be all of it.
Booths in Cunningham where the Greens cracked 30% last year:
Austinmer, Bulli, Coledale, Thirroul, Wombarra: in the very weirdly-drawn seat of Heathcote.
Gwynneville, Keiraville, Wollongong, Wollongong N, Port Kembla (WTF?): in Wollongong, or just outside it in Keira.
More of the Victorian Liberals being the Victorian Liberals:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-06-24/victorian-liberal-party-assault-claim/106838618
A Victorian Liberal MP is alleging that they were assaulted by another Victorian Liberal MP last month. They apparently raised it with Jess Wilson (no detail about how that turned out), and have subsequently reported the assault to Victoria Police last week, who are now investigating.
The accused Victorian Liberal MP is also now considering launching a defamation case against the Victorian Liberal MP making the accusation, even though the involved MPs haven’t even been publicly named.
I swear that party are allergic to government. It’s like every time they get themselves into a competitive or even election-winning position, they go out of their way to try to self-sabotage because they don’t actually want to inherit the responsibility of governing.
Austinmer, Bulli, Coledale, Thirroul, Wombarra: in the very weirdly-drawn seat of Heathcote.
Gwynneville, Keiraville, Wollongong, Wollongong N, Port Kembla (WTF?): in Wollongong, or just outside it in Keira.
++++++++++++++
It was funny everyone’s fave new fascho Karl Stevanovich with his Bellambi roots. Maybe coulda become a Green
It has now been revealed that Moira Deeming has made the allegation against Matthew Guy. From reports, Jess Wilson has taken the right courses of action. The strangest thing is that the whole alleged event was caught on various cameras. This seems to feed my thesis that Moira will end up running for One Nation in November. The whole affair is very strange.
Yeah the fact that Moira Deeming is that the centre of it, the CCTV footage appears to completely contradict her allegation and even the police have now dismissed the complaint, makes me think she’s looking for an “out”. A way to defect from the Liberals while inflicting damage on them.
Has one backbencher MP ever been so destructive to a party in one single term before? I’m sure the Liberals would love to see the back of her after this.
It’s true that Newcastle has some suburbs which are strong for the Greens. Not surprising, considering suburbs like Mayfield and Islington feel a lot like the inner west of Sydney. But I can’t see the Greens getting above about 20% max. on primaries. They got from memory 17% in the recent by-election for lord mayor. I can’t see the Greens winning Newcastle.
I think the threat to Labor would be from an independent with strong local name recognition-somebody along the lines of a Greg Piper. Tim Crakanthorp is damaged goods after his undisclosed family property interests came to light, but appears to be running again. In the lord major election, Labor ran third with about 15%, with an independent winning outright on primaries. The Lib. got 9%.
Trent
– I am wondering if she wants to be expelled so that then she can play victim.
– Geoff Shaw, the member for Frankston in the Baillieu / Napthine governments would be close or surpass.
– Craig whatshisname from the Central Coast was pretty good too but it was overshadowed by lots of other drama.
I wonder if Deeming joins One Nation how would campaign fare for One Nation towards the Liberals especially if she does it alongside Bernie Finn who was also a former Liberal LC for Western Metropolitan Region and became a One Nation member earlier this year?
If ON is the destination will she be able to toe the Pauline line? So far, the Moira line seems to be the only course. She could run for ON in a kower house seat. Melton? Sydenham?
I definitely think she’s angling for an expulsion so she can play the victim and take the votes of her support base with her from the Libs to ON.
All three of the leading parties suffering negative headlines in Victoria today.
Moira Deeming not backing down.
Victoria’s Big Build continuing to damage Labor.
And negative coverage for One Nation federally (given no real state presence yet).
It’s going to be a fascinating election if all three parties have primary votes in the 20s, with preference flows determining the winner in most seats. Though five months is a very long time in politics.